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下半年预期可能难以实现,现在或许是远离Snowflake的最佳时机
美股研究社· 2025-03-14 11:30
Core Viewpoint - Snowflake's stock price has rebounded recently, driven more by market sentiment than fundamentals, with aggressive growth expectations for 2025 that may be difficult to achieve [1][11] Group 1: Competitive Landscape - Databricks is experiencing slower growth despite its larger scale, which may alleviate some competitive concerns for Snowflake [1][4] - Databricks' SQL revenue has grown over 150% year-over-year, raising concerns for Snowflake, which is trying to leverage customer migration savings of over 50% from other vendors [3][4] - Snowflake's competitive position is being challenged by the increasing importance of unstructured data and open data formats, which may weaken its business strength [5][10] Group 2: Financial Performance - Snowflake's fourth-quarter product revenue reached $943 million, a 28% year-over-year increase, with a stable net revenue retention rate of 126% [7] - The company expects fourth-quarter product revenue to be between $955 million and $960 million, reflecting a year-over-year growth of 21-22% [7] - Snowflake's non-GAAP operating margin was approximately 9%, benefiting from operational leverage and cost-cutting measures [8] Group 3: Growth Projections - Snowflake's revenue estimates for fiscal years 2026 to 2034 show a gradual increase, with expected revenue of $4.4 billion in 2026, growing at 23% year-over-year [11] - Despite optimistic long-term growth prospects, expectations for profitability improvement may be overly optimistic, with projected earnings per share of around $10 compared to analysts' expectations of $15 [12] Group 4: Strategic Initiatives - Snowflake is expanding its product offerings and transitioning from a cloud-optimized data warehouse to a broader data platform, driven by efforts in data extraction, engineering, and analytics [5][6] - The company is collaborating with Microsoft and ServiceNow to enhance data interoperability and has recently acquired Datavolo to support structured and unstructured data integration [6][10]