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益生股份:2025年一季报点评:供应增加导致苗价低迷,一季度业绩承压-20250504
Minsheng Securities· 2025-05-04 02:23
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company [3][5]. Core Views - The company experienced a decline in revenue and profit in Q1 2025 due to increased supply leading to lower chick prices, with revenue at 620 million yuan, down 9.4% year-on-year and 36.6% quarter-on-quarter, and a net profit of -10 million yuan, down 112.0% year-on-year and 106.5% quarter-on-quarter [1][2]. - The sales of white feather broiler chicks totaled 150 million, with a year-on-year increase of 18.2%, but the average selling price dropped significantly, impacting profitability [2]. - The company is expanding its breeding capacity with a planned investment of 500 million yuan to build a facility for 1 million sets of parent stock white feather broiler chickens [3]. - Future projections indicate a recovery in chick prices by Q4 2025 as supply decreases, with expected net profits of 552 million, 623 million, and 670 million yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [3][8]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Q1 2025 revenue was 620 million yuan, a decrease of 9.4% year-on-year and 36.6% quarter-on-quarter, with a net profit of -10 million yuan [1]. - The company sold 150 million white feather broiler chicks, with revenue from this segment at 410 million yuan, down 25.8% year-on-year [2]. - The average selling price for chicks was 2.6 yuan each, reflecting a significant decline of 44.1% quarter-on-quarter and 37.1% year-on-year [2]. Production and Investment - The company sold 14,099 breeding pigs in Q1 2025, marking a substantial increase of 344.1% year-on-year, with revenue from this segment at 30.26 million yuan [3]. - A strategic investment of 500 million yuan is planned to enhance the company's white feather broiler business, including the construction of breeding facilities and a feed factory [3]. Future Outlook - The company anticipates a gradual recovery in chick prices by late 2025, benefiting from a reduction in supply and a favorable market environment [2][3]. - Projected net profits for the years 2025 to 2027 are expected to grow, with earnings per share (EPS) forecasted at 0.50, 0.56, and 0.61 yuan respectively [3][8].