归母净利润与NBV的剪刀差
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A股上市险企财报“说”了什么?解码4260亿元净利润背后的周期与突围
经济观察报· 2025-11-04 14:35
Core Insights - The article emphasizes the importance of the "Scissor Gap" (SG) indicator, which measures the difference between the year-on-year growth of net profit attributable to shareholders and the year-on-year growth of New Business Value (NBV), indicating who is creating future value and who is realizing profits [1][2]. Financial Performance - In the first three quarters of 2025, the total net profit of five listed insurance companies reached 426.04 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 33.50%, with a significant third-quarter growth of 68.30% [4][6]. - The performance of these companies shows a divergence between profit growth and stock price movements, with some companies experiencing declines despite strong profit figures [2][4]. Profit and NBV Analysis - China Life and New China Life exhibited a positive SG, with net profit growth outpacing NBV growth, indicating a reliance on existing business profits [5][11]. - Conversely, Ping An and China Pacific displayed a negative SG, suggesting that while NBV is growing significantly, profit realization is lagging, which may indicate future potential as investments mature [5][11]. Investment Strategies - Investment returns are identified as the main driver of profit growth for listed insurance companies, with significant increases in total investment yields reported [6][9]. - Companies are optimizing their asset allocation and duration management to enhance investment returns, with China Life reporting a total investment return of 6.42% [6][9]. Channel Strategy - The article notes a shift in channel strategies from merely increasing manpower to enhancing productivity and customer value, with significant growth in new business value from bancassurance channels [7][10]. - The focus is on improving the quality of sales and customer retention rather than just expanding the sales force [7][10]. Future Outlook - The insurance industry is expected to benefit from a recovery in the economy, with potential improvements in both liability and investment sides [13]. - The current valuation of the insurance sector remains low historically, suggesting potential for upward revaluation as companies improve their net investment yields and maintain cost discipline [13].
A股上市险企财报“说”了什么?解码4260亿元净利润背后的周期与突围
Jing Ji Guan Cha Wang· 2025-11-04 08:41
Core Viewpoint - The insurance industry in China has shown significant profit growth in the first three quarters of 2025, with a total net profit of 426.04 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 33.5% and a quarterly increase of 68.3%. However, this strong performance does not guarantee stock price increases, as evidenced by the mixed market reactions to the earnings reports of major listed insurance companies [2][4]. Financial Performance - The five major listed insurance companies reported a combined net profit of 426.04 billion yuan, averaging about 15 billion yuan per day [2]. - China Life's net profit increased by 60.5%, while its new business value (NBV) grew by 41.8%. New China Life's net profit rose by 58.9%, with an NBV increase of 50.8% [6]. - China Ping An and China Pacific Life exhibited a negative SG (Scissors Gap), indicating that their NBV growth outpaced profit growth, with Ping An's NBV increasing by 46.2% and net profit by 11.5% [5][6]. Investment and Profit Drivers - The investment sector has been identified as the main driver of profit growth for listed insurance companies, with significant increases in total investment returns. For instance, China Life's total investment return was 368.55 billion yuan, up 41% year-on-year [9]. - The companies are increasingly relying on equity investments to mitigate pressure from low interest rates on their liabilities [7]. Channel Strategies - The insurance companies are shifting their channel strategies from merely increasing manpower to enhancing productivity and value. For example, China Ping An's NBV from the bancassurance channel grew by 170.9%, contributing approximately 35% to its performance [8]. - The focus is on improving customer retention and value through better management of individual insurance sales forces, rather than relying solely on expanding the number of agents [7][8]. Future Outlook - The insurance industry is expected to benefit from a recovery in the economy, which may lead to simultaneous improvements in both the liability and investment sides. Current industry valuations remain low compared to historical levels, suggesting potential for growth [12]. - The companies are preparing for new opportunities and challenges in 2026, with strategic adjustments in response to regulatory changes and market conditions [12].