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成本与观影人次周期错配 中国电影市场亟须创新调整
Core Insights - The Chinese film market is projected to surpass 287.57 billion yuan in box office revenue for the first half of 2025, driven by the summer release of several commercial blockbusters [2] - Despite the anticipated revenue growth, the film industry faces significant challenges, with over half of the box office revenue in the first half attributed to the film "Nezha: The Devil's Child" [2] - The industry is grappling with a structural issue where the number of screens has increased significantly, but the quality and quantity of content have not kept pace, leading to a decline in audience attendance [3][4] Box Office Performance - As of June 16, 2025, the cumulative box office in mainland China reached approximately 282 billion yuan, with an average ticket price of 45.92 yuan, the highest in history [3] - The number of moviegoers has decreased to 614 million, with a seat occupancy rate of only 7.8%, compared to over 9 billion moviegoers and a 13.5% occupancy rate in the same period of 2018 [3] - The film industry requires around 800 billion yuan in box office revenue to break even, with a normal occupancy rate of 12% to 15% needed for sustainability [3] Audience Expectations and Quality - Audience expectations for quality have risen by approximately 15% since the release of "Nezha 2," indicating that many films are failing to meet viewer standards [5] - The film production cycle is lengthy, often exceeding a year, which hampers the industry's ability to respond to current social trends and audience interests [6] Production Costs and Challenges - Despite declining box office revenues and attendance, production costs for films have continued to rise, creating a mismatch between revenue and expenses [6][7] - The production costs for films released during the Spring Festival range from 500 million to 1 billion yuan, significantly higher than earlier successful films [7] Derivative Market Potential - The film industry needs to reposition the role of movies within the revenue structure, increasing the proportion of income from derivative products [8] - Currently, derivative income from films in China is low, often below 10%, compared to 70% in Hollywood, where merchandise and collectibles are more developed [9] - The domestic market faces challenges such as late development of derivative products and a lack of synchronization with film releases, leading to missed revenue opportunities [9][10]