Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" [2] Core Viewpoints - The express delivery industry experienced a significant growth in business volume, with a year-on-year increase of 21.6% in Q1 2025, driven by a 5.7% growth in online retail sales [3][14] - SF Express led the growth in business volume with a 25.4% increase in March 2025, outperforming its competitors [4][32] - The average price per package in the industry faced downward pressure, with a year-on-year decline of 8.8% in Q1 2025 [5][22] - The report anticipates a continued growth potential in the express delivery sector, projecting a 10-15% increase in business volume for 2025 [6][46] Summary by Sections Industry Situation - In Q1 2025, the total express delivery volume reached 451.4 billion pieces, with March alone accounting for approximately 166.6 billion pieces, reflecting a 20.3% year-on-year growth [3][14] - The online retail sales for physical goods amounted to 2.99 trillion yuan, marking a 5.7% increase compared to the previous year [14][15] Company Performance - In March 2025, the express delivery volumes for major companies were as follows: YTO Express at 26.65 billion pieces, Yunda at 22.53 billion pieces, Shentong at 20.85 billion pieces, and SF Express at 12.95 billion pieces [4][32] - Cumulatively in Q1 2025, the business volumes were: YTO Express at 67.79 billion pieces, Yunda at 60.76 billion pieces, Shentong at 58.07 billion pieces, and SF Express at 35.41 billion pieces [4][32] Price Situation - The average price per package in the express delivery industry was 7.66 yuan in Q1 2025, down 8.8% year-on-year [5][22] - In March 2025, the average prices for major companies were: SF Express at 13.82 yuan, YTO at 2.18 yuan, Yunda at 1.96 yuan, and Shentong at 2.01 yuan [5][33] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on companies such as ZTO Express, Yunda, and YTO Express in the franchise model, while suggesting SF Express as a strong candidate in the direct operation model due to its potential for operational and cash flow improvements [8][47]