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不锈钢期货日报-20260228
Guo Jin Qi Huo· 2026-02-28 12:13
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current core contradiction in the stainless - steel market lies in the game between the cost support brought by the contraction of Indonesian nickel ore supply and the inventory suppression caused by the lagging recovery of downstream demand. In the short term, the rising nickel ore premium and the decline in nickel - iron production will continuously strengthen the cost - side support, but attention should be paid to the premium repair pressure caused by weak spot transactions. If the terminal resumption progress fails to meet expectations or the nickel ore policy loosens, the price may fall back to the support level. In the medium - to - long term, attention should be paid to the implementation of the Indonesian nickel ore quota in March, downstream resumption data, and the demand - boosting effect of macro - policies [6] 3. Summary of Each Section According to the Directory 3.1 Futures Market - On February 26, the stainless - steel futures main contract SS2604 closed at 14,265 yuan/ton, with a gain of 0.35%. The trading volume was 103,479 lots, and the open interest was 77,985 lots, showing a reduction in positions compared with the previous trading day [2] 3.2现货市场 - The spot market price strengthened following the futures, and the prices of 304 - series stainless steel generally increased. The mainstream quotes of 304 private four - foot cold - rolled resources in Wuxi and Foshan markets were 14,000 - 14,050 yuan/ton (rough edge), up 50 - 100 yuan/ton from the previous day. The private five - foot hot - rolled large - plate resources remained at 13,850 - 13,900 yuan/ton (rough edge), and the cold - rolled locked price of some steel mills in East China was raised to 13,950 yuan/ton. Although traders were strongly willing to hold up prices, the downstream resumption progress was slow, and terminal purchases were mainly for price inquiries. Actual transactions were concentrated below 14,000 yuan/ton, and the market reported that "high - price transactions were weak". Under the supply - demand game, the spot liquidity still needed improvement [3] 3.3 Influencing Factors - The national construction site resumption rate was only 8.9%, and the real - estate project resumption rate was 8.2%. Terminal purchases in industries such as home appliances and construction had not started yet, and the market was mainly for circulation among traders. There was still pressure on social inventory reduction. The closing price of the SS2604 contract was above the 5 - day moving average, and the short - term moving averages showed a bullish arrangement. The red bar of the MACD indicator slightly expanded, and DIFF and DEA were running above the zero - axis, indicating continuous bullish momentum. The RSI indicator rebounded to around 55, in a neutral - to - bullish range [4][5] 3.4 Market Outlook - The short - term cost - side support will be continuously strengthened, but attention should be paid to the premium repair pressure. In the medium - to - long term, focus on the Indonesian nickel ore quota in March, downstream resumption data, and the demand - boosting effect of macro - policies [6]