不锈钢期货
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国泰君安期货研究周报-20260406
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2026-04-06 15:25
Report Summary 1. Investment Ratings The report does not provide industry investment ratings. 2. Core Views - **Nickel and Stainless Steel**: The current fundamentals of nickel are weak, but the contradiction in the ore end and cost support limit the downward elasticity of Shanghai nickel. Stainless steel prices are under pressure from marginal inventory accumulation, but the raw material end contradiction restricts the downward space, and the steel price is expected to fluctuate within a range [5][6]. - **Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon**: Industrial silicon shows a weakly oscillating pattern with inventory accumulation and weakening downstream demand. Polysilicon has weak fundamentals and is affected by concentrated cancellation. The market is expected to pay attention to the impact of concentrated cancellation [29][30][34]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: Supply - side news causes frequent disturbances. Although the market focuses on the approval progress of Zimbabwe, the increase in raw material shipments from Australia and Chile in April will supplement the raw materials. The downstream replenishment willingness is not strong in the short term, and it is recommended to wait and see [62][65]. - **Palm Oil and Soybean Oil**: International oil prices dominate the palm oil market. The post - Eid al - Fitr origin structure has weakened, and the April production recovery degree will be a key factor for the annual market. The soybean oil market is affected by the US bio - fuel blending policy, and the price center is expected to return to the middle [84][85][88]. - **Soybean Meal and Soybean**: Soybean meal is oscillating and waiting for new drivers. Soybean has no driving force for the time being and the disk is oscillating. The market should pay attention to the April USDA supply and demand report, Sino - US trade progress, and South American weather [99][105]. - **Corn**: The corn market should focus on the inventory at the northern ports. The spot price has declined, and the futures price is affected by policy auction rumors and other factors. The price is expected to have a callback trend, but it is still a thinking of buying on dips [127][128][131]. - **Sugar**: Keep an eye on crude oil and maintain an oscillating and bullish thinking in the long term. The international sugar market is dominated by macro - drivers, and the domestic market is affected by import rhythm and cost [148][150][173]. - **Cotton**: ICE cotton futures are expected to maintain a strong trend, and domestic cotton futures will maintain an oscillating trend. The market should focus on the new - year planting and relevant policies [175][176][190]. - **Hogs**: The de - stocking of hogs is less than expected, and the bottom has not appeared. The spot price is expected to continue to decline in April, and the LH2605 contract of futures should pay attention to stop - profit and stop - loss [193][194]. - **Peanuts**: Pay attention to the purchase of oil mills. The peanut price has declined, and the futures are recommended to go long on dips. The market should pay attention to the digestion progress of the remaining goods in Henan in April and the impact of temperature on peanut indicators [205][206]. 3. Summary by Category Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Market Situation**: Shanghai nickel is supported by marginal cost but limited by weak fundamentals. Stainless steel is under pressure from inventory accumulation and supported by raw material contradictions [5][6]. - **Inventory**: The social inventory of refined nickel in China increased by 1,815 tons to 87,892 tons on April 3, and the LME inventory decreased by 78 tons to 281,496 tons. The inventory of the nickel - iron - stainless steel industry chain decreased [7][8]. - **Market News**: There are many news about nickel mines in Indonesia, including the adjustment of the benchmark price, the restart of mines in other regions, and the change of production quotas [10][11][12]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Price Trend**: Industrial silicon and polysilicon prices both declined. Industrial silicon is affected by downstream production cuts, and polysilicon is affected by weak demand and concentrated cancellation [29]. - **Supply and Demand**: Industrial silicon supply has partial复产, and demand has weakened. Polysilicon supply has decreased in the short term, and demand is also weak [30][31][33]. - **Outlook**: Industrial silicon is expected to oscillate weakly, and polysilicon should pay attention to the impact of concentrated cancellation [34]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price Movement**: The futures price of lithium carbonate declined, and the spot price increased slightly. The basis weakened [61]. - **Supply and Demand**: Supply has increased, and demand has downstream replenishment. The inventory has accumulated for two consecutive weeks [62][63][64]. - **Outlook**: It is recommended to wait and see, and pay attention to the supply - side news [65]. Palm Oil and Soybean Oil - **Last Week's View**: Palm oil was affected by geopolitical situation and B50 news, and soybean oil was affected by crude oil and other factors [84]. - **This Week's View**: Palm oil is still dominated by energy prices, and the April production recovery is crucial. Soybean oil is affected by the US bio - fuel policy and South American weather [85][88]. - **Data**: The trading volume and price of palm oil and soybean oil futures have changed, and the inventory and export data of palm oil are also different [91]. Soybean Meal and Soybean - **Last Week's Market**: The US soybean price oscillated, and the domestic soybean meal price was weak, while the soybean price was sideways [99][100]. - **Fundamentals**: The net sales of US soybeans decreased, the Brazilian soybean import cost decreased, and the US soybean planting area was slightly higher than expected [100]. - **Outlook**: Both soybean meal and soybean are expected to oscillate, and pay attention to relevant reports and news [105]. Corn - **Market Review**: The corn spot price declined, and the futures price was affected by policy and inventory [127][128]. - **Market Outlook**: CBOT corn declined, wheat price decreased, and corn starch inventory increased. Pay attention to the inventory at the northern ports [128][129][131]. Sugar - **This Week's Review**: The international sugar price declined, and the domestic sugar price increased slightly. The net long position of funds increased [148][149]. - **Next Week's Outlook**: The international sugar market is dominated by macro - drivers, and the domestic market should pay attention to import policies [150][173]. Cotton - **Market Situation**: ICE cotton reached a new high this year, and domestic cotton futures oscillated. The market should focus on new - year planting [175][176]. - **Fundamentals**: The US cotton planting area is expected to increase, and the export data is good. The domestic cotton price is slightly lower, and the downstream demand is weak [179][180][184]. Hogs - **This Week's Review**: The hog spot price was weak, and the futures price declined. The supply increased, and the demand was mainly for inventory [193]. - **Next Week's Outlook**: The hog price is expected to continue to decline, and the LH2605 contract should pay attention to stop - profit and stop - loss [193][194]. Peanuts - **Market Review**: The peanut spot price declined, and the futures price also decreased. The supply has certain pressure, and the demand is different for different types of peanuts [205]. - **Market Outlook**: The price is expected to oscillate, and it is recommended to go long on dips. Pay attention to the purchase of oil mills and the impact of temperature [206].
资金流向及重点席位持仓变化日报-20260401
Guang Fa Qi Huo· 2026-04-01 03:10
Report Information - Report title: "Fund Flow and Key Seats' Position Changes Daily Report" [1] - Report date: April 1, 2026 [1] - Data date: March 31, 2026 [2] Key Points about Fund Flows and Positions Morgan Chase - Net position and daily position change data are presented for various products, with the net position reaching up to 14.00% and daily position change shown on the chart [2] Qiankun Futures - Net position and daily position change data are presented for various products, with the net position reaching up to 14.00% and daily position change shown on the chart [2] UBS Futures - Net position and daily position change data are presented for various products, with the net position reaching up to 4.00% and daily position change shown on the chart [2] CITIC Futures - Net position and daily position change data are presented, with the net position reaching up to 10.00% and daily position change shown on the chart [4] Guotai Junan - Net position and daily position change data are presented, with the net position reaching up to 20.00% and daily position change shown on the chart [4]
瑞达期货不锈钢产业日报-20260331
Rui Da Qi Huo· 2026-03-31 10:02
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The stainless steel futures price is expected to fluctuate and adjust. It is recommended to pay attention to the support at MA60 and the upper limit of 14,500 yuan. The upstream raw material supply is expected to shrink, the production of stainless steel mills may face pressure, the downstream demand is gradually turning to the peak season, but the demand in the traditional "Golden March" peak season is slightly insufficient, and the long - position sentiment has weakened [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the stainless steel futures main contract is 14,160 yuan/ton, a decrease of 210 yuan; the 05 - 06 contract spread is 55 yuan/ton, unchanged; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 27 lots, an increase of 3,429 lots; the main contract position is 97,783 lots, a decrease of 8,530 lots; the warehouse receipt quantity is 45,736 tons, unchanged [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The price of 304/2B rolled cut - edge in Wuxi is 15,000 yuan/ton, unchanged; the market price of scrap stainless steel 304 in Wuxi is 9,850 yuan/ton, unchanged; the basis of stainless steel is 200 yuan/ton, a decrease of 30 yuan [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The monthly output of electrolytic nickel is 29,430 tons, an increase of 1,120 tons; the total monthly output of ferronickel is 21,400 metal tons, unchanged; the monthly import volume of refined nickel and alloys is 17,308.15 tons, a decrease of 5,231.79 tons; the monthly import volume of ferronickel is 831,700 tons, a decrease of 78,200 tons; the SMM1 nickel spot price is 136,950 yuan/ton, a decrease of 750 yuan; the average price of ferronickel (7 - 10%) nationwide is 1,100 yuan/nickel point, unchanged; the monthly output of Chinese ferrochrome is 757,800 tons, a decrease of 26,900 tons [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The monthly output of 300 - series stainless steel is 1.3194 million tons, a decrease of 538,700 tons; the weekly inventory of 300 - series stainless steel is 626,500 tons, an increase of 2,300 tons; the monthly export volume of stainless steel is 458,500 tons, a decrease of 29,500 tons [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The cumulative monthly new housing construction area increased by 5,083.9 square meters, a decrease of 53,686.06 square meters; the monthly output of excavators is 37,300 units, an increase of 3,700 units; the monthly output of large and medium - sized tractors is 32,100 units, an increase of 9,500 units; the monthly output of small tractors is 10,000 units, an increase of 1,000 units [2] 3.6 Industry News - The Ministry of Commerce will introduce measures to optimize the duty - free shopping 2.0 version, promote the expansion and upgrading of commodity consumption, and promote the development of the automotive after - market and leisure consumption such as cruise yachts and RV camping. The import of automobiles from January to February 2026 increased by 25% year - on - year, but the import in February decreased by 12% year - on - year and 17% month - on - month. The Ministry of Commerce will implement a special consumption promotion campaign. The Federal Reserve Chair Powell said the Fed tends to keep interest rates unchanged but may act if inflation expectations change. The supply of nickel ore is expected to shrink due to the rainy season in the Philippines and the reduction of RKAB quotas in Indonesia [2]
南华期货镍、不锈钢2026二季度展望:政策托底,随势而动
Nan Hua Qi Huo· 2026-03-31 06:26
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core Views of the Report - In Q1 2026, the global nickel and stainless - steel markets showed a co - existence of an upward - shifted valuation center and wide - range fluctuations. The core contradiction in the industry chain was the all - around tightening of Indonesian nickel ore policies, leading to a supply structural reversal and damaged production stability [1]. - In Q2 2026, the biggest potential variable in the market is the actual approval progress of Indonesian nickel ore quotas and marginal policy adjustments. The nickel policy in Indonesia still has certain bullish support for the bottom center in Q2. The cost bottom is significantly lifted due to the proposed export tariff and windfall tax on nickel. In Q2, Indonesia and the Philippines will gradually emerge from the rainy season, and the downstream production will increase. The shortage of sulfur in the hydrometallurgical process may have an impact as early as Q2. Macro - level factors such as the development of the US - Iran war and the release of US core data need to be continuously monitored [2]. - In Q2 2026, it is relatively difficult for stainless steel to have a significant independent market. The key lies in the de - stocking during the traditional consumption peak season and the transmission of macro - policies. If the terminal procurement orders are effectively released and drive the high - level social inventory into a continuous de - stocking channel, the spot price may rise moderately under cost support. Overall, the stainless - steel market in Q2 will be range - bound between 13,000 and 14,500 yuan/ton, following the guidance of Shanghai nickel and macro - level factors [2][4]. - It is expected that the core fluctuation range of the main Shanghai nickel contract in Q2 will be between 130,000 and 150,000 yuan/ton [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Q1 Market Review - In Q1, the market price was strongly pushed up by a series of strong logics. From late November last year to late January, the market pricing was unilaterally dominated by the "strong expectation" of a significant contraction in Indonesian supply. The expected RKAB quota in 2026 was 250 - 260 million tons, about 30% lower than that in 2025. With the Shanghai nickel price hitting a low of 110,000 yuan, the market price soared. LME nickel broke through the resistance level of $18,785/ton, and the main Shanghai nickel contract reached a high of 152,000 yuan/ton [10]. - From February to the end of the quarter, the sharp rise driven by sentiment and supply - side contraction expectations encountered strong resistance from the real fundamentals. During the traditional off - season around the Chinese Spring Festival, the mid - and downstream had low acceptance of raw materials, and the refined nickel inventory increased due to sufficient profits. The large amount of visible inventory and the damaged downstream transmission mechanism led to a stalemate in the spot market. After the festival, as the news of expanding production by allowing some compliant mining enterprises to increase quotas came out, the bullish sentiment cooled down, and the market fluctuated around 136,000 yuan with strong policy support at the bottom [10][11]. 3.2 Industrial Chain Performance 3.2.1 Nickel Ore - In Q1, the premium of the nickel ore end was the core driver for the cost increase of the entire nickel industry chain. The expectation of quota reduction had a profound impact, and the panic about quota issuance exceeded the actual impact on production. The price of Indonesian nickel ore continued to rise, and some Indonesian projects imported from the Philippines, pushing up the raw material cost. The market was in a situation of weak supply and demand due to the rainy season in the Philippines and the pre - holiday stocking in the Chinese market. The strategic intention of Indonesia's quota reduction was to control the quantity and raise the price to strengthen its global pricing power [15][16]. - In Q2, the nickel ore production and port shipments in the Philippines are expected to increase seasonally. The nickel ore inventory at Chinese ports is likely to stabilize and rebound. However, the mining cost in Indonesia and the Philippines has increased, and the scarcity of high - grade nickel ore has intensified. The approval of RKAB in Indonesia is expected to speed up, and the panic in the ore market may be alleviated. The nickel ore price will remain high, forming a solid cost base for the industry chain [17]. 3.2.2 Ferronickel - In Q1, the ferronickel market had a significant cost - driven upward trend. The strong expectation of reduced ore supply was quickly transmitted to the ferronickel end, pushing up the price. Affected by the tightened supply of nickel ore from Indonesia and the Philippines, the cash cost of ferronickel smelting enterprises increased sharply, and the production in China and Indonesia declined. The import volume of Indonesian ferronickel decreased, and traders continued to raise prices. At the same time, the substitution economy of scrap stainless steel increased [22]. - In Q2, the ferronickel market will enter a complex stage of two - way supply - demand game. The supply is expected to increase marginally as the nickel ore shipments from the Philippines recover seasonally and the quota approval in Indonesia speeds up. However, the demand is uncertain as the downstream stainless - steel market has difficulty supporting high raw material prices, and the cost advantage of scrap stainless steel over ferronickel is prominent. The ferronickel price is strongly supported by high - cost raw materials, but it is difficult to break through further [23]. 3.2.3 Nickel Sulfate and Intermediates - In Q1, the nickel sulfate and related intermediate product market was frequently disturbed, but the industry maintained a production - based - on - sales operation mode. The supply was restricted by the tightened nickel ore quota in Indonesia and a safety accident in the wet - smelting park. The market supply of intermediate products was extremely tight, and the discount coefficient of MHP to LME nickel remained high. On the demand side, some domestic battery and ternary precursor enterprises rushed to export, driving up the price of battery - grade nickel sulfate [32]. - In Q2, the supply of nickel sulfate and intermediates faces uncertainties due to the potential impact of the Middle - East geopolitical situation on sulfur imports. The demand may decline as the impulse demand from pre - export rush fades. The price transmission from the upstream cost increase to the terminal may be limited. The long - term impact of the trade agreement between Indonesia and the US on Chinese enterprises in Indonesia needs to be continuously monitored [32][34][35]. 3.2.4 Stainless Steel - In Q1, the stainless - steel market had limited independent trends, and the price followed the fluctuations of Shanghai nickel and Indonesian policy disturbances. The price increase driven by cost was not effectively supported by terminal demand. Due to the Spring Festival and the traditional off - season, the price transmission to the terminal was difficult, and the inventory accumulated. Only after the mid - March resumption of work in the mid - and downstream did the inventory start to decline [40]. - In Q2, the key is the de - stocking rate during the "Golden March and Silver April" consumption peak season and the acceptance of the current price by the downstream. If the terminal demand is effectively stimulated, the spot price may rise. However, the stainless - steel export still faces trade barriers. The price bottom is firm, but whether it can stabilize above 14,200 yuan depends on the demand [40]. 3.3 Q2 Balance Explanation - On the supply side, the core logic in Q2 is the bottleneck in the RKAB quota issuance in Indonesia and the multiple uncertainties in raw material supply. The new digital quota approval system in Indonesia has led to a long approval time, and the actual approved nickel ore volume is far lower than expected. The impact of the US - Iran conflict on sulfur imports may cause production cuts or shutdowns in the Indonesian wet - smelting industry as early as April [52][53]. - On the demand side, Q2 is the traditional peak consumption season for the stainless - steel industry. The recovery of terminal demand is the core. The demand in the real - estate sector is still weak, but the home - appliance sector is recovering as expected. Steel mills may rush to replenish inventory if the price is appropriate. In the new - energy field, the sales of new - energy vehicles usually pick up after the Tomb - Sweeping Festival, and the price of nickel sulfate is supported by seasonal demand and strong cost [54].
大越期货沪镍、不锈钢早报-20260331
Da Yue Qi Huo· 2026-03-31 01:53
Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views - **沪镍**: The external market continues to fluctuate around the 20 - day moving average. Supply is sufficient with increased production scheduling in March and rising domestic inventories. The nickel ore price is firm, and the Indonesian RKAB policy is still having an impact. Nickel - iron prices are weakly stable, and the cost line is firm. Stainless - steel inventories have slightly increased, and demand is weak. New - energy vehicle production and sales data meet expectations, but there is a large month - on - month decline in the off - season. The basis is neutral, inventory is bearish, the disk is neutral, and the main position is bullish. Conclusion: The Shanghai nickel 2605 will fluctuate around the 20 - day moving average [2]. - **不锈钢**: The spot stainless - steel price remains flat. In the short term, the nickel ore price is firm, Indonesian demand is strong, nickel - iron prices are weakly stable, and the cost line has strong support. Stainless - steel inventories have slightly increased, and demand is weak. The basis is bullish, inventory is neutral, and the disk is bullish. Conclusion: The stainless - steel 2605 will have a wide - range fluctuation around the 20 - day moving average [4]. 3. Summary by Directory 镍、不锈钢价格基本概览 - **期货价格**: On March 30, the closing price of the Shanghai nickel main contract was 137,120 yuan, up 20 yuan from March 27; the London nickel price was 17,325, up 110; the stainless - steel main contract was 14,370 yuan, down 20 yuan. The nickel index was 135,900 yuan, up 650 yuan, and the cold - rolled index was 13,834 yuan, up 6 yuan [9]. - **Spot price**: On March 30, the price of SMM1 electrolytic nickel was 137,700 yuan, down 1,300 yuan; 1 Jinchuan nickel was 140,250 yuan, down 1,300 yuan; 1 imported nickel was 135,150 yuan, down 1,300 yuan; nickel beans were 137,950 yuan, down 1,150 yuan. Cold - rolled 304*2B prices in Wuxi, Foshan, Hangzhou, and Shanghai remained unchanged [9]. 镍仓单、库存 - **上期所镍库存**: As of March 27, the Shanghai Futures Exchange nickel inventory was 64,479 tons, with the futures inventory at 57,069 tons, an increase of 818 tons and 379 tons respectively. On March 30, the LME nickel inventory was 281,574 tons (unchanged), the nickel (warehouse receipt) was 57,173 tons, an increase of 104 tons, and the total inventory was 338,747 tons, an increase of 104 tons [11][12]. 不锈钢仓单、库存 - **Physical inventory**: On March 27, the Wuxi inventory was 601,200 tons, the Foshan inventory was 390,900 tons, and the national inventory was 1,157,500 tons, a month - on - month increase of 30,100 tons. The 300 - series inventory was 696,700 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3,000 tons. - **Futures inventory**: On March 30, the stainless - steel warehouse receipt was 45,676 tons, unchanged from March 27 [16][17]. 镍矿、镍铁价格 - **Nickel ore**: On March 30, the CIF price of laterite nickel ore with Ni1.5% was 79 US dollars per wet ton, down 0.5 US dollars; Ni0.9% was 35 US dollars per wet ton, unchanged. The freight from the Philippines to Lianyungang and Tianjin Port remained unchanged [21]. - **Nickel - iron**: The price of high - nickel wet tons (8 - 12) was 1,085.28 yuan per nickel point, down 0.45 yuan; the price of low - nickel wet tons (below 2) was 3,650 yuan per ton, unchanged [21]. 不锈钢生产成本 - The traditional cost was 14,196 yuan, the scrap - steel production cost was 14,081 yuan, and the low - nickel + pure - nickel cost was 17,888 yuan [23]. 镍进口成本测算 The converted import price was 135,923 yuan per ton [26].
资金流向及重点席位持仓变化日报-20260330
Guang Fa Qi Huo· 2026-03-30 09:15
Report Information - Report title: Funds Flow and Key Seats' Position Changes Daily Report [1] - Report date: March 30, 2026 [1] - Data date: March 27, 2026 [2] Core Content Funds Flow - The report presents the percentage changes in funds inflow and outflow for various varieties, but specific data details are not clearly described in the text [2] Key Seats' Position Changes - The report shows the net positions and daily position changes (with color - coded for increase or decrease) of several futures companies including Morgan Chase, Qiankun Futures, UBS Futures, CITIC Futures, and Guotai Junan for different futures products such as peanut, sulfur - fuel oil, CSI 500 Index, etc [2]
大越期货沪镍、不锈钢周报-20260330
Da Yue Qi Huo· 2026-03-30 03:25
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, nickel prices fluctuated and trended stronger, mainly influenced by Indonesian policies and some positive news on the cost side. The supply is sufficient with increased production scheduling in March and rising domestic inventories. In the industrial chain, nickel ore prices are firm, the Indonesian RKAB policy continues to have an impact, and Indonesia's bargaining power for nickel ore is rising. Ferronickel prices are weakly stable with a firm cost line. Stainless steel inventories have slightly increased, and demand is weak. The production and sales data of new energy vehicles meet expectations, with a significant month - on - month decline in the off - season [6]. - The global nickel market is expected to maintain a supply surplus pattern dominated by low - cost production capacity in Indonesia. Traditional demand such as stainless steel has weak growth, but the high - nickel trend in the new energy field will provide key structural support. The industry will accelerate the elimination of high - cost production capacity in the context of持续 low prices, and the bottom of nickel prices will be anchored to the cost line of Indonesian nickel pig iron [24]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Viewpoints and Strategies - **Viewpoints**: This week, nickel prices fluctuated and trended stronger, influenced by Indonesian policies and cost - side factors. Supply is sufficient, with increased production scheduling and rising inventories. In the industrial chain, nickel ore prices are firm, ferronickel prices are weakly stable, stainless steel inventories have increased, and new energy vehicle production and sales are in the off - season [6]. - **Operation Strategies**: The main contract of Shanghai nickel will fluctuate around the 20 - day moving average. The main contract of stainless steel will have a wide - range fluctuation around the 20 - day moving average [7][8]. 3.2 Fundamental Analysis 3.2.1 Industrial Chain Weekly Price Changes - **Nickel Ore**: The price of red earth nickel ore (CIF) NI1.5%, Fe30 - 35% decreased from $78 to $77, a decline of 1.28%; the price of red earth nickel ore (CIF) NI1.4%, Fe30 - 35% decreased from $73 to $72, a decline of 1.37%. Battery - grade and electroplating - grade nickel sulfate prices remained unchanged. Low - nickel ferronickel (Shandong) and high - nickel ferronickel (Shandong) prices remained unchanged [11]. - **Electrolytic Nickel**: Shanghai electrolytic nickel increased from 140,690 yuan to 141,870 yuan, an increase of 0.84%; Shanghai Russian nickel increased from 134,040 yuan to 136,320 yuan, an increase of 1.70%; Jinchuan's ex - factory price increased from 140,600 yuan to 141,400 yuan, an increase of 0.57% [12]. - **Stainless Steel**: The price of 304 stainless steel remained unchanged at 15,062.5 yuan [12]. 3.2.2 Nickel Ore Market Conditions - **Price and Freight**: Nickel ore prices decreased by $1 per wet ton this week, and ocean freight decreased by $2 per wet ton compared to last week [15][16]. - **Inventory**: On March 26, 2026, the total nickel ore inventory at 14 ports in China was 7.4184 million wet tons, a decrease of 508,200 wet tons or 6.41% from the previous period. Philippine nickel ore inventory was 7.1684 million wet tons, a decrease of 458,200 wet tons or 6%; other countries' nickel ore inventory was 250,000 wet tons, a decrease of 50,000 wet tons or 16.67% [16]. - **Import**: In February 2026, nickel ore imports were 1.2239 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 160,300 tons or 11.58%, and a year - on - year increase of 77,800 tons or 6.79%. From January to February 2026, the total nickel ore imports were 2.6081 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 26.73% [16]. 3.2.3 Electrolytic Nickel Market Conditions - **Price and Spot**: This week, nickel prices fluctuated and strengthened, mainly affected by Indonesian policies and cost factors. Domestic inventories are high, supply is sufficient, downstream demand is for essential purchases, and the premium has decreased [23]. - **Production**: In February 2026, China's refined nickel production was 32,600 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 7.45% and a year - on - year decrease of 1.65%. From January to February 2026, the cumulative refined nickel production was 67,825 tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 1.65%. In March 2026, the estimated refined nickel production was 39,430 tons, a month - on - month increase of 20.95% and a year - on - year increase of 7.54% [30]. - **Import and Export**: In February 2026, China's refined nickel imports were 16,930.903 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 5,135 tons or 23.27%, and a year - on - year increase of 9,333 tons or 122.85%. The net import of refined nickel was 14,664.072 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 62.85% and a year - on - year decrease of 172.99%. From January to February 2026, the cumulative refined nickel imports were 38,997.234 tons, a year - on - year increase of 5,821 tons or 17.54%. In February 2026, China's refined nickel exports were 2,266.831 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1,547 tons or 40.56%, and a year - on - year decrease of 17,934 tons or 88.78% [34]. - **Inventory**: LME inventory decreased by 1,938 tons to 281,574 tons. SHFE inventory increased by 818 tons to 64,479 tons. Social inventory data shows that Shanghai nickel warehouse receipts increased by 379 tons, spot inventory increased by 1,511 tons to 26,238 tons, bonded area inventory decreased by 200 tons to 2,770 tons, and the total inventory increased by 1,690 tons to 86,077 tons [39]. 3.2.4 Ferronickel Market Conditions - **Price**: According to Mysteel data, low - nickel ferronickel prices remained unchanged at 3,500 yuan/ton, and high - nickel ferronickel prices remained unchanged at 1,100 yuan/nickel point. According to SMM data, high - nickel ferronickel prices decreased by 0.5 yuan/nickel to 1,083.5 yuan/nickel, and low - nickel ferronickel prices decreased by 25 yuan/ton to 3,650 yuan/ton [44][45]. - **Production**: In February 2026, China's nickel pig iron actual production was 21,100 tons of metal, a month - on - month decrease of 1.39%. Medium - and high - nickel pig iron production was 16,400 tons, a month - on - month increase of 10.59%; low - nickel pig iron production was 4,700 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 28.67%. From January to February 2026, China's total nickel pig iron production was 42,500 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 7.48%, of which the nickel metal production of medium - and high - nickel pig iron was 31,300 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 9.73% [47]. - **Import**: In February 2026, China's ferronickel imports were 831,700 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 78,200 tons or 8.6%, and a year - on - year decrease of 77,300 tons or 8.51%. From January to February 2026, China's total ferronickel imports were 1.7415 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 96,500 tons or 5.25% [50]. - **Inventory**: In February, the tradable ferronickel inventory was 178,300 physical tons, equivalent to 17,000 tons of nickel. The tradable medium - and high - nickel ferronickel was 152,300 tons, equivalent to 16,900 tons of nickel [53]. 3.2.5 Stainless Steel Market Conditions - **Price**: The price of 304 stainless steel (average price of four locations) remained unchanged from last week [58][59]. - **Production**: In February, stainless steel crude steel production was 2.71 million tons, including 818,300 tons of 200 - series, 572,300 tons of 400 - series, and 1.3194 million tons of 300 - series, a month - on - month decrease of 29% [63]. - **Import and Export**: The latest data shows that stainless steel imports were 109,000 tons and exports were 260,000 tons [66]. - **Inventory**: On March 27, the inventory in Wuxi was 601,200 tons, in Foshan was 390,900 tons, and the national inventory was 1.1575 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 30,100 tons. The inventory of 300 - series was 696,700 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3,000 tons [69]. 3.2.6 New Energy Vehicle Production and Sales - **Vehicle Production and Sales**: In February, the production and sales of new energy vehicles were 694,000 and 765,000 respectively, a year - on - year decrease of 21.8% and 14.2%. From January to February, the production and sales of new energy vehicles were 1.735 million and 1.71 million respectively, a year - on - year decrease of 8.8% and 6.9%. New energy vehicle sales accounted for 41.2% of total vehicle sales [74]. - **Power Battery**: In February, the total production of power and energy - storage batteries was 141.6 GWh, a month - on - month decrease of 15.7% and a year - on - year increase of 41.3%. From January to February, the cumulative production of power and energy - storage batteries was 309.7 GWh, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 48.8%. In February, the domestic power battery loading volume was 26.3 GWh, a month - on - month decrease of 37.4% and a year - on - year decrease of 24.6%. From January to February, the cumulative domestic power battery loading volume was 68.3 GWh, a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 7.2% [77]. 3.3 Technical Analysis - From the daily K - line, the price rebounded, fluctuated, and strengthened, returning to fluctuate around the 20 - day moving average. The main contract positions increased to some extent, and the bullish force was relatively strong. The MACD indicator showed a golden cross and started to point upwards, and the KDJ slowly entered the overbought area. The previous bottom was supported again, and after the rebound, the pressure of the 20 - day moving average was evident. It may continue to fluctuate in the future [80]. 3.4 Industrial Chain Summary - **Nickel Ore**: Neutral to bullish. The RKAB policy continues to have an impact, there is strong demand support in Indonesia, and mine quotes are firm [83]. - **Ferronickel**: Neutral. Ferronickel prices are weakly stable, and cost support is strong [83]. - **Refined Nickel**: Neutral to bearish. Supply is sufficient, and inventories are at a high level [83]. - **Stainless Steel**: Neutral. Inventories have increased, and consumption is weak [83]. - **New Energy**: Neutral. It is the off - season for consumption, and production has decreased significantly month - on - month [83].
大越期货沪镍、不锈钢早报-20260330
Da Yue Qi Huo· 2026-03-30 03:03
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints 2.1沪镍 - Last week, nickel prices fluctuated with an upward bias, mainly influenced by Indonesian policies and some positive news on the cost side. Supply: In March, production scheduling increased, domestic inventories continued to accumulate, and the market supply was sufficient. In the industrial chain, nickel ore prices were firm, the Indonesian RKAB policy continued to ferment, and Indonesia's bargaining power for nickel ore continued to rise. Nickel iron prices were weakly stable, and the cost line was firm. Stainless steel inventories increased slightly, and demand was weak. New energy vehicle production and sales data met expectations, with a large month - on - month decline in the off - season. Overall, it is bearish [3]. - The basis of spot nickel is 1900, which is bullish [3]. - LME nickel inventory is 281574 (-666), and the Shanghai Futures Exchange warehouse receipt is 57069 (-524), which is bearish [3]. - The closing price is above the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is downward, which is neutral [3]. - The net long position of the main contract increased, which is bullish [3]. - Conclusion: The Shanghai nickel 2605 contract will fluctuate around the 20 - day moving average [3]. 2.2 Stainless Steel - The spot stainless steel price remained flat. In the short term, nickel ore prices were firm, demand in Indonesia was strong, nickel iron prices were weakly stable, and the cost line had strong support. Stainless steel inventories increased slightly, and demand was weak. Overall, it is neutral [5]. - The basis of stainless steel is 672.5, which is bullish [5]. - The futures warehouse receipt is 45676 (unchanged), which is neutral [5]. - The closing price is above the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is upward, which is bullish [5]. - Conclusion: The stainless steel 2605 contract will have a wide - range fluctuation around the 20 - day moving average [5]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Nickel, Stainless Steel Price Overview | Type | 3 - 27 | 3 - 26 | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Shanghai nickel main contract | 137100 | 135860 | +1240 | | LME nickel | 17215 | 17165 | +50 | | Stainless steel main contract | 14390 | 14390 | 0 | | SMM1 electrolytic nickel (spot) | 139000 | 139350 | -350 | | 1 Jinchuan nickel (spot) | 141550 | 142050 | -500 | | 1 imported nickel (spot) | 136450 | 136450 | 0 | | Nickel beans (spot) | 139100 | 139100 | 0 | | Cold - rolled coil 304*2B (Wuxi, spot) | 15100 | 15100 | 0 | | Cold - rolled coil 304*2B (Foshan, spot) | 14900 | 14900 | 0 | | Cold - rolled coil 304*2B (Hangzhou, spot) | 15100 | 15100 | 0 | | Cold - rolled coil 304*2B (Shanghai, spot) | 15150 | 15150 | 0 | [10] 3.2 Nickel Warehouse Receipts and Inventories - As of March 27, the Shanghai Futures Exchange nickel inventory was 64479 tons, of which the futures inventory was 57069 tons, an increase of 818 tons and 379 tons respectively [12]. | Type | 3 - 27 | 3 - 26 | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | LME nickel inventory | 281574 | 282240 | -666 | | Nickel warehouse receipts | 57069 | 57593 | -524 | | Total inventory | 338643 | 339833 | -1190 | [13] 3.3 Stainless Steel Warehouse Receipts and Inventories - On March 27, the Wuxi inventory was 601200 tons, the Foshan inventory was 390900 tons, and the national inventory was 1157500 tons, a month - on - month increase of 30100 tons. Among them, the 300 - series inventory was 696700 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3000 tons [17]. - The stainless steel futures warehouse receipt on March 27 was 45676 tons, unchanged from the previous day [18]. 3.4 Nickel Ore and Nickel Iron Prices | Nickel Ore | Grade | 3 - 27 | 3 - 26 | Change | Unit | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Laterite nickel ore CIF | Ni1.5% | 79.5 | 79.5 | 0 | USD/wet ton | | Laterite nickel ore CIF | Ni0.9% | 35 | 35 | 0 | USD/wet ton | | Freight from Philippines to Lianyungang | | 14.5 | 14.5 | 0 | USD/ton | | Freight from Philippines to Tianjin Port | | 16 | 16 | 0 | USD/ton | | High - nickel wet ton | 8 - 12 | 1085.73 | 1085.52 | +0.21 | CNY/nickel point | | Low - nickel wet ton | <2 | 3650 | 3650 | 0 | CNY/ton | [22] 3.5 Stainless Steel Production Costs | Traditional Cost | Scrap Steel Production Cost | Low - Nickel + Pure Nickel Cost | | --- | --- | --- | | 14205 | 14085 | 17964 | [24] 3.6 Nickel Import Cost Calculation The converted import price is 134894 CNY/ton [26]
基差统计表-20260328
Mai Ke Qi Huo· 2026-03-28 08:29
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core View - There is no clear core view presented in the given content. The document mainly provides a table of futures and spot prices, along with related data such as basis rates and price differences for various commodities. 3. Summary by Related Catalog Metals - **Copper**: The主力基差率 is 0.42%, with a 1.00% increase compared to yesterday. The spot price is 6556, and the主力 contract price is 95380 [3]. - **Aluminum**: The主力基差率 is -0.38%, with a 0.63% increase compared to yesterday. The spot price is 23760, and the主力 contract price is 23795 [3]. - **Zinc**: The主力基差率 is -0.17%, with a 0.43% increase compared to yesterday. The spot price is 22920, and the主力 contract price is 22950 [3]. - **Lead**: The主力基差率 is -1.09%, with a -0.06% change compared to yesterday. The spot price is 16325, and the主力 contract price is 16485 [3]. - **Tin**: The主力基差率 is 1.52%, with a 2.13% increase compared to yesterday. The spot price is 357600, and the主力 contract price is 352250 [3]. - **Nickel**: The主力基差率 is 1.85%, with a 0.76% increase compared to yesterday. The spot price is 137800, and the主力 contract price is 135270 [3]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The主力基差率 is 5.93%, with a -0.80% change compared to yesterday. The spot price is 9200, and the主力 contract price is 8530 [3]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The主力基差率 is -0.64%, with a 0.60% increase compared to yesterday. The spot price is 157200, and the主力 contract price is 157920 [3]. - **Gold**: The主力基差率 is 0.05%, with a -0.03% change compared to yesterday. The spot price is 1014.44, and the主力 contract price is 1011.04 [3]. - **Silver**: The主力基差率 is 0.06%, with a -0.42% change compared to yesterday. The spot price is 18121, and the主力 contract price is 18174 [3]. Black Industry - **Rebar**: The主力基差率 is 2.81%, with a 0.42% increase compared to yesterday. The spot price is 3220, and the主力 contract price is 3132 [3]. - **Hot Rolled Coil**: The主力基差率 is -1.00%, with a -0.88% change compared to yesterday. The spot price is 3280, and the主力 contract price is 3313 [3]. - **Iron Ore**: The主力基差率 is 4.97%, with a 2.63% increase compared to yesterday. The spot price is 846.6, and the主力 contract price is 806.5 [3]. - **Coke**: The主力基差率 is -8%, with a 0.56% increase compared to yesterday. The spot price is 1625, and the主力 contract price is 1776 [3]. - **Coking Coal**: The主力基差率 is 0.52%, with a 0.68% increase compared to yesterday. The spot price is 1247.5, and the主力 contract price is 1241 [3]. - **Steam Coal**: The主力基差率 is -5.7%, with a 0.75% increase compared to yesterday. The spot price is 755, and the主力 contract price is 801.4 [3]. - **Silicon Iron**: The主力基差率 is -7.03%, with a -0.80% change compared to yesterday. The spot price is 5660, and the主力 contract price is 6166 [3]. - **Ferromanganese**: The主力基差率 is -5.2%, with a -0.18% change compared to yesterday. The spot price is 6150, and the主力 contract price is 6492 [3]. - **Stainless Steel**: The主力基差率 is -0.97%, with a -1.39% change compared to yesterday. The spot price is 14350, and the主力 contract price is 14490 [3]. Agricultural Products - **Soybean Meal**: The主力基差率 is 8.80%, with a -1.30% change compared to yesterday. The spot price is 3190, and the主力 contract price is 2932 [3]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: The主力基差率 is 9.88%, with a -0.06% change compared to yesterday. The spot price is 2570, and the主力 contract price is 2371 [3]. - **Soybean Oil**: The主力基差率 is 3.16%, with a -1.22% change compared to yesterday. The spot price is 8820, and the主力 contract price is 8480 [3]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: The主力基差率 is 5.39%, with a -0.90% change compared to yesterday. The spot price is 10230, and the主力 contract price is 9707 [3]. - **Peanut**: The主力基差率 is 10.00%, with a 0.43% increase compared to yesterday. The spot price is 9000, and the主力 contract price is 8136 [3]. - **Palm Oil**: The主力基差率 is 0.42%, with a -1.20% change compared to yesterday. The spot price is 9510, and the主力 contract price is 9510 [3]. - **Corn**: The主力基差率 is 1.01%, with a 0.09% increase compared to yesterday. The spot price is 2400, and the主力 contract price is 2376 [3]. - **Corn Starch**: The主力基差率 is 4.96%, with a 0.34% increase compared to yesterday. The spot price is 2900, and the主力 contract price is 2763 [3]. - **Apple**: The主力基差率 is not provided, with a 0.80% increase compared to yesterday. The spot price is 8500, and the主力 contract price is 9978 [3]. - **Egg**: The主力基差率 is -6.136%, with a -0.25% change compared to yesterday. The spot price is 3200, and the主力 contract price is 3410 [3]. - **Live Pig**: The主力基差率 is -3.3%, with a -0.37% change compared to yesterday. The spot price is 9650, and the主力 contract price is 12595 [3]. - **Cotton**: The主力基差率 is 8.94%, with a -1.03% change compared to yesterday. The spot price is 16711, and the主力 contract price is 15340 [3]. Soft Commodities - **Sugar**: The主力基差率 is 0.94%, with a 0.00% change compared to yesterday. The spot price is 5480, and the主力 contract price is 5429 [3]. - **Methanol**: The主力基差率 is 0.92%, with a -2.14% change compared to yesterday. The spot price is 3118, and the主力 contract price is 2883 [3]. - **Ethanol**: The主力基差率 is -1.21%, with a -0.06% change compared to yesterday. The spot price is 4975, and the主力 contract price is 5036 [3]. - **PTA**: The主力基差率 is -1.40%, with a -0.44% change compared to yesterday. The spot price is 6500, and the主力 contract price is 6592 [3]. - **Polypropylene**: The主力基差率 is 3.62%, with a 3.23% increase compared to yesterday. The spot price is 9000, and the主力 contract price is 8975 [3]. - **Styrene**: The主力基差率 is -1.04%, with a -3.2% change compared to yesterday. The spot price is 10000, and the主力 contract price is 10105 [3]. - **Short Fiber**: The主力基差率 is -0.12%, with a -3.10% change compared to yesterday. The spot price is 8100, and the主力 contract price is 8008 [3]. - **Plastic**: The主力基差率 is -0.40%, with a -3.00% change compared to yesterday. The spot price is 8680, and the主力 contract price is 8715 [3]. - **PVC**: The主力基差率 is -1.46%, with a -2.77% change compared to yesterday. The spot price is 5620, and the主力 contract price is 5703 [3]. - **Rubber**: The主力基差率 is -0.79%, with a -0.02% change compared to yesterday. The spot price is 16300, and the主力 contract price is 16430 [3]. - **20 -号胶**: The主力基差率 is 1.93%, with a -1.07% change compared to yesterday. The spot price is 13827, and the主力 contract price is 13565 [3]. - **Soda Ash**: The主力基差率 is -1.61%, with a 0.01% change compared to yesterday. The spot price is 1224, and the主力 contract price is 1244 [3]. - **Urea**: The主力基差率 is -0.16%, with a 0.05% change compared to yesterday. The spot price is 1860, and the主力 contract price is 1863 [3]. - **Bottle Chip**: The主力基差率 is 2.37%, with a -2.69% change compared to yesterday. The spot price is 8300, and the主力 contract price is 8108 [3]. - **Paper Pulp**: The主力基差率 is 0.26%, with a 0.26% increase compared to yesterday. The spot price is 5238, and the主力 contract price is 5224 [3]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: The主力基差率 is -6.11%, with a -1.41% change compared to yesterday. The spot price is 675.4, and the主力 contract price is 723.9 [3]. - **Fuel Oil**: The主力基差率 is 9.44%, with a -2.38% change compared to yesterday. The spot price is 4758, and the主力 contract price is 4348 [3]. - **Asphalt**: The主力基差率 is -2.94%, with a -2.24% change compared to yesterday. The spot price is 4280, and the主力 contract price is 4410 [3]. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: The主力基差率 is 15.83%, with a -10.34% change compared to yesterday. The spot price is 5976, and the主力 contract price is 5159 [3]. - **LPG**: The主力基差率 is 9.89%, with a 6.06% increase compared to yesterday. The spot price is 7198, and the主力 contract price is 6550 [3]. Stock Index - **CSI 300**: The主力基差率 is 1.97%, with a 0.00% change compared to yesterday. The spot price is 4537.5, and the主力 contract price is 4505.6 [3]. - **SSE 50**: The主力基差率 is 1.04%, with a 0.32% increase compared to yesterday. The spot price is 2859.5, and the主力 contract price is 2848 [3]. - **CSI 500**: The主力基差率 is 3.16%, with a 0.62% change compared to yesterday. The spot price is 7767.7, and the主力 contract price is 7685.6 [3].
周度期货价量总览-20260327
Guo Tou Qi Huo· 2026-03-27 11:46
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoint The report provides a weekly overview of futures price and volume data for various commodity categories, including precious metals, non - ferrous metals, black metals, energy and chemicals, agricultural products, forest products, livestock products, and financial futures. It shows the weekly closing prices, price changes, 20 - day annualized volatility, volatility changes, speculation degrees, trend degrees, and capital changes of each futures variety. 3. Summary by Commodity Categories Precious Metals - Gold: The weekly closing price was 998.66, with a weekly decline of 4.16%, 20 - day annualized volatility of 47.42%, a volatility increase of 56.31%, speculation degree of 3.36, trend degree of - 0.16, and a capital outflow of 148.28 [2]. - Silver: The weekly closing price was 17,489.00, with a weekly decline of 0.77%, 20 - day annualized volatility of 92.24%, a volatility increase of 9.26%, speculation degree of 4.69, trend degree of - 0.01, and a capital outflow of 11.14 [2]. Non - Ferrous Metals - Copper: The weekly closing price was 95,930.00, with a weekly increase of 1.26%, 20 - day annualized volatility of 22.36%, a volatility increase of 12.87%, speculation degree of 0.78, trend degree of - 0.07, and a capital outflow of 38.01 [2]. - Nickel: The weekly closing price was 137,100.00, with a weekly increase of 2.96%, 20 - day annualized volatility of 21.07%, a volatility decrease of 16.68%, speculation degree of 2.30, trend degree of 0.09, and a capital inflow of 15.03 [2]. - Tin: The weekly closing price was 362,460.00, with a weekly increase of 5.76%, 20 - day annualized volatility of 58.97%, a volatility decrease of 21.82%, speculation degree of 10.12, trend degree of 0.04, and a capital inflow of 3.39 [2]. Black Metals - Iron Ore: The weekly closing price was 812.00, with a weekly decline of 0.43%, 20 - day annualized volatility of 15.63%, a volatility decrease of 4.06%, speculation degree of 0.60, trend degree of 0.06, and a capital inflow of 3.38 [2]. - Coke: The weekly closing price was 1,752.00, with a weekly increase of 0.66%, 20 - day annualized volatility of 32.76%, a volatility increase of 22.23%, speculation degree of 0.74, trend degree of - 0.19, and a capital inflow of 3.87 [2]. - Coking Coal: The weekly closing price was 1,219.00, with a weekly increase of 4.10%, 20 - day annualized volatility of 47.56%, a volatility increase of 44.94%, speculation degree of 2.91, trend degree of 0.02, and a capital inflow of 23.74 [2]. Energy and Chemicals - Crude Oil: The weekly closing price was 740.80, with a weekly decline of 4.24%, 20 - day annualized volatility of 119.65%, a volatility increase of 8.61%, speculation degree of 2.50, trend degree of 0.04, and a capital outflow of 33.39 [2]. - Fuel Oil LU: The weekly closing price was 4,464.00 (5,157.00), with a weekly decline of 6.14% (- 7.78%), 20 - day annualized volatility of 99.40% (106.40%), a volatility increase of 14.65% (13.49%), speculation degree of 3.11 (1.95), trend degree of 0.08 (0.01), and a capital outflow of 18.59 (7.27) [2]. - Methanol: The weekly closing price was 3,296.00, with a weekly increase of 5.24%, 20 - day annualized volatility of 80.52%, a volatility increase of 5.60%, speculation degree of 3.38, trend degree of 0.30, and a capital inflow of 16.58 [2]. Agricultural Products - Cotton: The weekly closing price was 15,395.00, with a weekly increase of 1.18%, 20 - day annualized volatility of 10.10%, a volatility decrease of 38.17%, speculation degree of 0.50, trend degree of 0.21, and a capital inflow of 3.83 [2]. - Sugar: The weekly closing price was 5,464.00, with a weekly increase of 0.46%, 20 - day annualized volatility of 10.71%, a volatility decrease of 5.49%, speculation degree of 0.90, trend degree of 0.20, and a capital inflow of 2.13 [2]. - Corn: The weekly closing price was 2,369.00, with a weekly decline of 0.75%, 20 - day annualized volatility of 8.80%, a volatility increase of 35.16%, speculation degree of 0.57, trend degree of - 0.20, and a capital outflow of 0.41 [2]. Forest Products - Pulp: The weekly closing price was 5,202.00, with a weekly increase of 0.74%, 20 - day annualized volatility of 15.83%, a volatility decrease of 3.70%, speculation degree of 1.56, trend degree of 0.07, and a capital outflow of 8.97 [2]. Livestock Products - Eggs: The weekly closing price was 3,502.00, with a weekly increase of 2.73%, 20 - day annualized volatility of 17.48%, a volatility increase of 20.23%, speculation degree of 1.22, trend degree of 0.26, and a capital inflow of 2.72 [2]. - Hogs: The weekly closing price was 9,965.00, with a weekly decline of 2.50%, 20 - day annualized volatility of 17.84%, a volatility decrease of 1.77%, speculation degree of 0.80, trend degree of - 0.20, and a capital inflow of 11.64 [2]. Financial Futures - IC: The weekly closing price was 7,559.20, with no weekly change, 20 - day annualized volatility of 29.33%, a volatility increase of 20.48%, speculation degree of 0.68, trend degree of 0.05, and a capital inflow of 3.18 [4]. - IF: The weekly closing price was 4,427.40, with a weekly decline of 1.32%, 20 - day annualized volatility of 18.01%, a volatility increase of 22.49%, speculation degree of 0.44, trend degree of 0.03, and a capital outflow of 18.92 [4]. - IM: The weekly closing price was 7,523.80, with a weekly decline of 0.48%, 20 - day annualized volatility of 29.45%, a volatility increase of 33.07%, speculation degree of 0.77, trend degree of 0.04, and a capital outflow of 20.00 [4].