2025年10月10日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报 观点与策略 | 黄金：继续创新高 | 3 | | --- | --- | | 白银：冲击50新高 | 3 | | 铜：美元回升，限制价格上涨 | 5 | | 锌：小幅反弹 | 7 | | 铅：库存增加，限制价格回升 | 9 | | 锡：加速上行 | 10 | | 铝：区间震荡 | 12 | | 氧化铝：偏弱运行 | 12 | | 铸造铝合金：跟随电解铝 | 12 | | 镍：冶炼累库与矿端预期博弈，警惕消息扰动 | 14 | | 不锈钢：短线供需与成本博弈，钢价震荡运行 | 14 | | 碳酸锂：去库加速，震荡运行 | 16 | | 工业硅：上游继续复产，逢高布空思路 | 18 | | 多晶硅：市场消息再次发酵，关注实际落地 | 18 | | 铁矿石：宏观预期支撑，偏强震荡 | 20 | | 螺纹钢：关注电炉减产节奏，宽幅震荡 | 21 | | 热轧卷板：关注电炉减产节奏，宽幅震荡 | 21 | | 硅铁：市场观望气氛浓厚，宽幅震荡 | 23 | | 锰硅：市场观望气氛浓厚，宽幅震荡 | 23 | | 焦炭：预期反复，宽幅震荡 | 25 | | 焦煤：预期反复 ...

大越期货投资咨询部 祝森林 从业资：F3023048 投资咨询证：Z0013626 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 沪镍 每日观点 1、基本面：外盘冲高回落。基本面上，镍矿价格继续坚挺，镍铁价格维稳，下方支撑依旧有力。不锈 钢去库存化良好，金九银十表现较佳。新能源汽车产销数据良好，但随着电池端的技术替代，镍的需求 增长或受限，三元电池装车量环比下降。从中长线来看镍的过剩局格不变。偏空 2、基差：现货123600，基差-880，偏空 3、库存：LME库存236892，+4260，上交所仓单24775，-42，偏空 4、盘面：收盘价收于20均线以上，20均线向上，偏多 5、主力持仓：主力持仓净空，空增，偏空 6、结论：沪镍2511：宽幅震荡思路，逢高仍可试空。 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 沪镍&不锈钢早报—2025年10月10日 利多： 利空： 1、金九银十需求提振预期 2、反内卷政策 3、成本线12万 ...

（文章来源：每日经济新闻） 每经AI快讯，10月10日，上期所基本金属期货夜盘收盘全线上涨。沪铜涨0.86%，沪锡涨0.82%，沪锌 涨0.61%，沪铝涨0.45%，沪铅涨0.44%，沪镍涨0.41%，不锈钢涨0.35%，氧化铝涨0.31%。 ...

（文章来源：每日经济新闻） 每经AI快讯，9月30日，上期所基本金属期货夜盘收盘涨跌不一，沪锡涨2.62%，沪铜涨1.96%，沪锌涨 1.22%，沪镍涨0.78%，沪铝涨0.31%，不锈钢涨0.20%，沪铅跌0.09%，氧化铝跌0.52%。 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Recent nickel - iron prices have rebounded from a low level, strengthening the support of raw material costs. Steel mills' production profits have improved, and with the gradual increase in infrastructure and real - estate demand, stainless - steel mills are more confident, and their production schedules are expected to increase. However, the downstream is entering the traditional off - season. In October, infrastructure construction is expected to accelerate. With the favorable domestic fiscal investment policies and anti - involution measures, the supply - demand pattern is expected to improve, market purchasing willingness has recovered, and pre - accumulated orders have been released. Meanwhile, holders of goods are more willing to sell, the domestic market maintains a de - stocking trend, and the spot premium remains stable. Technically, the price has dropped with an increase in positions, showing a strong short - selling atmosphere and breaking below the MA60 support. It is recommended to wait and see for the time being [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the futures main contract for stainless steel is 12,760 yuan/ton, down 80 yuan; the 10 - 11 month contract spread is - 140 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan. The net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 3,336 lots, an increase of 2,501 lots; the main contract position is 87,251 lots, a decrease of 11,471 lots. The warehouse receipt quantity is 87,148 tons, a decrease of 357 tons [2]. 现货市场 - The price of 304/2B coil (trimmed edge) in Wuxi is 13,700 yuan/ton, unchanged; the market price of scrap stainless steel 304 in Wuxi is 9,550 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis of the SS main contract is 480 yuan/ton, an increase of 40 yuan [2]. Upstream Situation - The monthly electrolytic nickel production is 29,430 tons, an increase of 1,120 tons; the total monthly nickel - iron production is 22,000 metal tons, a decrease of 200 metal tons. The monthly import volume of refined nickel and alloys is 24,426.84 tons, a decrease of 13,807.17 tons; the monthly import volume of nickel - iron is 874,100 tons, an increase of 38,200 tons. The SMM1 nickel spot price is 122,000 yuan/ton, a decrease of 450 yuan; the average price of nickel - iron (7 - 10%) nationwide is 955 yuan/nickel point, unchanged. The monthly Chinese chromite production is 757,800 tons, a decrease of 26,900 tons [2]. Industry Situation - The monthly production of 300 - series stainless steel is 1.7379 million tons, an increase of 39,800 tons; the weekly total inventory of 300 - series stainless steel is 562,300 tons, an increase of 3,500 tons. The monthly stainless - steel export volume is 458,500 tons, a decrease of 29,500 tons [2]. Downstream Situation - The cumulative monthly new housing construction area is 398.0101 million square meters, an increase of 45.9501 million square meters. The monthly output of excavators is 27,600 units, an increase of 2,900 units; the monthly output of large and medium - sized tractors is 26,700 units, an increase of 6,900 units; the monthly output of small tractors is 9,000 units, a decrease of 1,000 units [2]. Industry News - The People's Bank of China will implement a moderately loose monetary policy, make good use of securities, fund, and insurance company swap facilities, and stock repurchase and increase - holding re - loans. The new statement in the next - stage monetary policy indicates that the focus of monetary policy in the future will be to implement the introduced policies. The State - owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission of the State Council called on state - owned enterprises to resist "involution - style" competition. On the raw material side, Indonesia's PNBP policy has restricted issuance, increasing the cost of nickel resource supply, and the growth of Indonesia's nickel - iron production has slowed down while domestic production has gradually declined. China's industrial profits above a designated size in August increased by 20.4% year - on - year, reversing the 1.5% decline in July. The US core PCE price index in August increased by 0.2% month - on - month, in line with expectations, and consumer spending has increased for three consecutive months [2].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - The overall trend of precious metals is expected to remain strong due to factors such as the US government shutdown crisis, geopolitical conflicts, and the possibility of the Fed cutting interest rates. However, due to the approaching National Day holiday in China and high uncertainties in the overseas market, it is advisable to reduce positions on futures at high prices [5]. - Copper prices are affected by factors such as macro - economic data, supply disruptions, and weakening consumption. Short - term copper prices may have a correction, and it is recommended to take profits at high prices before the holiday and hold light positions [7][10]. - Alumina is expected to maintain a weak operation due to the over - supply situation, import window opening, and the limited impact of policies on capacity investment [17]. - Cast aluminum alloy futures prices are expected to fluctuate at a high level with aluminum prices, and the alloy ingot spot price remains stable and slightly strong [19][20]. - The aluminum price is expected to remain in a volatile pattern in the short term, with possible seasonal inventory accumulation after the holiday, and attention should be paid to the negative feedback on prices if demand does not recover rapidly [23][24]. - Zinc prices may rebound in the short term, but there is still a risk of further decline if there is a large - scale delivery in LME. The supply of refined zinc may increase in October, and consumption is expected to remain weak [27][28][29]. - Lead prices may decline as the supply of lead ingots is expected to increase while consumption shows no obvious improvement [35][36]. - Nickel prices are expected to fluctuate widely, with a relatively flat downstream consumption trend and a surplus in the refined nickel market, and attention should be paid to import and visible inventory changes [38][39]. - Stainless steel is expected to maintain a high - level volatile trend, with increased production in September but no obvious seasonal peak in demand, and cost support at the bottom [43][45]. - Industrial silicon may have a short - term correction and then can be bought on dips, as the inventory structure is prone to positive feedback between futures and spot prices, and there are uncertainties in supply and demand [48]. - Polysilicon prices may have a short - term correction, and it is recommended to exit long positions first and then re - enter after sufficient correction after the holiday [50][51][52]. - Lithium carbonate prices are expected to remain in a volatile pattern, with limited supply growth, strong demand, and continuous inventory depletion [55]. - Tin prices are expected to maintain a high - level volatile trend, with a tight supply at the mine end, weak demand, and slow improvement in the short - term fundamentals [56][60][61]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Precious Metals Market Review - London gold closed up 0.28% at $3758.78 per ounce, and London silver closed up 2% at $46.032 per ounce. Shanghai gold and silver futures also reached new highs [3]. - The US dollar index fell 0.4% to 98.15, the 10 - year US Treasury yield weakened to 4.164%, and the RMB exchange rate against the US dollar fell 0.04% to 7.1349 [3]. Important Information - US macro - data such as PCE price index and consumer confidence index were released, and the Fed's interest - rate decision probability was predicted [4][5]. - The US government faces a shutdown crisis, and there are signs of an escalation in the Russia - Ukraine conflict [5]. Trading Strategy - Take profits at high prices on futures and reduce positions to lock in profits [5]. Copper Market Review - Shanghai copper futures fell 0.79% to 81890 yuan per ton, and LME copper fell 0.69% to $10205 per ton. LME inventory decreased by 25 tons to 14.44 million tons, and COMEX inventory increased by 1228 tons to 32.22 million tons [7]. Important Information - China's power generation capacity data, the possible delay of the US employment report, and relevant industry policies were released [8][9]. - Argentina approved a copper project, and Grasberg's production is expected to decline [9][10]. Trading Strategy - Take profits at high prices before the holiday, hold light positions, and consider buying deep - out - of - the - money call options or collar call options [7]. Alumina Market Review - Alumina futures fell 49 yuan to 2867 yuan per ton, and spot prices in different regions showed different trends [13]. Important Information - Industry policies on alumina project investment were introduced, and information on production capacity, raw material prices, and imports was provided [13][14][17]. Trading Strategy - The price is expected to be weak, and it is recommended to wait and see for arbitrage and options [17]. Cast Aluminum Alloy Market Review - Cast aluminum alloy futures fell 115 yuan to 20200 yuan per ton, and spot prices in different regions showed different trends [19]. Important Information - Policies affecting the recycled aluminum industry were introduced, and the inventory of aluminum alloy on the Shanghai Futures Exchange increased [19]. Trading Strategy - Futures prices are expected to fluctuate at a high level with aluminum prices, and it is recommended to wait and see for arbitrage and options [20]. Electrolytic Aluminum Market Review - Shanghai aluminum futures fell 115 yuan to 20660 yuan per ton, and spot prices in different regions showed different trends [22]. Important Information - US economic data and electrolytic aluminum inventory changes were reported [22]. Trading Strategy - The price is expected to fluctuate in the short term, and it is recommended to wait and see for arbitrage and options [24]. Zinc Market Review - LME zinc fell 1.23% to $2886.5 per ton, and Shanghai zinc fell 1.5% to 21705 yuan per ton. Spot trading was dull [27]. Important Information - Zinc concentrate inventory decreased, and domestic and imported zinc ore processing fees showed different trends [27]. Trading Strategy - Zinc prices may rebound in the short term, but pay attention to the risk of further decline if there is large - scale delivery in LME. Wait and see for arbitrage and options [29]. Lead Market Review - LME lead fell 0.37% to $2001.5 per ton, and Shanghai lead fell 0.09% to 17075 yuan per ton. Spot trading was general [31]. Important Information - The profitability of recycled lead smelters improved, and the production of lead batteries showed different trends [31][32]. Trading Strategy - Lead prices may decline, and it is recommended to wait and see for arbitrage and options [36]. Nickel Market Review - LME nickel fell $85 to $15155 per ton, and Shanghai nickel fell 1050 yuan to 120790 yuan per ton. Spot premiums showed different trends [38]. Important Information - Industry policies on resource exploration and a nickel mine exploration right auction were reported [38][39]. Trading Strategy - Nickel prices are expected to fluctuate widely, and it is recommended to wait and see for arbitrage and options [39]. Stainless Steel Market Review - Stainless steel futures fell 85 yuan to 12765 yuan per ton, and spot prices were in a certain range [42]. Important Information - India approved the BIS certification for steel from Taiwan, China [43]. Trading Strategy - Stainless steel prices are expected to fluctuate widely, and it is recommended to wait and see for arbitrage [46]. Industrial Silicon Market Review - Industrial silicon futures fluctuated narrowly, and some spot prices strengthened [48]. Important Information - China's industrial silicon export data was reported, and there were rumors about production capacity expansion [48]. Trading Strategy - Industrial silicon may have a short - term correction and then can be bought on dips. Sell out - of - the - money put options to take profits [48]. Polysilicon Market Review - Polysilicon futures rebounded from the bottom, and spot prices were stable [50][51]. Important Information - A research on EU solar component production capacity was reported [51]. Trading Strategy - Polysilicon prices may have a short - term correction. Exit long positions first and re - enter after sufficient correction after the holiday. Do reverse arbitrage between 2511 and 2512 contracts and sell out - of - the - money put options to take profits [51][52]. Lithium Carbonate Market Review - Lithium carbonate futures fell 1160 yuan to 72880 yuan per ton, and spot prices decreased [53]. Important Information - News about China's new energy vehicle development and a battery project was reported [53][55]. Trading Strategy - Lithium carbonate prices are expected to fluctuate widely, and it is recommended to wait and see for arbitrage. Sell out - of - the - money put options [56]. Tin Market Review - Tin futures fell 0.12% to 273220 yuan per ton, and spot trading was not ideal [56]. Important Information - US PCE price index data and industry policies were reported [58][59]. Trading Strategy - Tin prices are expected to maintain a high - level volatile trend. Wait and see for arbitrage and sell out - of - the - money put options [61].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, nickel prices fluctuated weakly, with average downstream transactions and no significant increase in pre - holiday restocking demand. In the industry chain, nickel ore prices remained firm, and due to the impact of typhoons, the loading and shipping of mines might be delayed. Ferronickel prices remained stable, with a firm cost line, and ferronickel enterprises were still in the red. The inventory reduction of stainless steel during the "Golden September and Silver October" slowed down. The production and sales data of new energy vehicles were good, but the installation of ternary batteries still showed a decline, which had limited impact on the increase in nickel demand. The medium - and long - term surplus pattern remained unchanged [8]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Viewpoints and Strategies - **Nickel Outlook**: This week, nickel prices fluctuated weakly, with average downstream transactions and no significant increase in pre - holiday restocking demand. The medium - and long - term surplus pattern remained unchanged [8]. - **Operation Strategies**: - Shanghai nickel main contract: It will fluctuate around the 20 - day moving average, oscillating in the range of 120,000 - 123,800 [9]. - Stainless steel main contract: It will have a wide - range oscillation around the 20 - day moving average [10]. 3.2 Fundamental Analysis - **Industry Chain Weekly Price Changes**: - Some nickel ore grades saw a slight increase of $1 per wet ton, and the freight rate remained the same as last week. The price of battery - grade nickel sulfate remained flat, while the price of electroplating - grade nickel sulfate increased by 1.76%. The prices of low - nickel ferronickel and high - nickel ferronickel in Shandong remained unchanged. The prices of electrolytic nickel and 304 stainless steel decreased slightly [13][14]. - **Nickel Ore Market**: - Some nickel ore prices increased slightly, and the freight rate remained flat. As of September 26, 2025, the total nickel ore inventory at 14 ports in China was 14.0937 million wet tons, an increase of 0.66%. In August 2025, the nickel ore import volume was 6.3467 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 28.72%. This week, nickel ore transactions were okay, and due to the impact of typhoons, the loading and shipping volume of Philippine mines might be delayed. Indonesia's supply was still abundant [17]. - **Electrolytic Nickel Market**: - Nickel prices fluctuated weakly, and there was no pre - holiday restocking demand. In the long - term, the supply and demand would continue to increase, but the surplus pattern would not change. The domestic new energy sector might be a new demand driver. In the medium - and long - term, prices might be under pressure, but would not deviate far from the cost line, and the center of gravity might shift downward. In August 2025, China's refined nickel production was 36,695 tons, a year - on - year increase of 29.62%. The LME inventory increased by 1,680 tons, while the Shanghai nickel inventory decreased by 959 tons [22][25][39]. - **Ferronickel Market**: - Ferronickel prices remained stable. In August 2025, China's ferronickel production was 22,900 tons of metal, a year - on - year decrease of 9.96%. The import volume in August was 874,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 67.4%. The inventory in August was 218,900 physical tons, equivalent to 21,700 tons of nickel [43][47][53]. - **Stainless Steel Market**: - The price of 304 stainless steel decreased by 0.36% this week. In August, the stainless steel crude steel production was 3.3156 million tons, and the 300 - series production increased by 2.34% month - on - month. The import volume was 117,100 tons, and the export volume was 447,900 tons. As of September 26, the national inventory was 984,500 tons, a decrease of 260 tons month - on - month [58][64][70]. - **New Energy Vehicle Production and Sales**: - In August, the production and sales of new energy vehicles were 1.391 million and 1.395 million respectively, a year - on - year increase of 27.4% and 26.8%. The production of power and other batteries was 139.6 GWh, a year - on - year increase of 37.3%. The sales volume of power batteries was 98.9 GWh, a year - on - year increase of 44.4%. The installation volume of power batteries was 62.5 GWh, a year - on - year increase of 32.4%, among which the installation volume of ternary batteries decreased by 10.0% year - on - year [74][77]. 3.3 Technical Analysis - From the daily K - line, the price still fluctuated around the 20 - day moving average. The position increased when the price rose and decreased when it fell, indicating that the main players were selling high and buying low. The MACD red bar fluctuated slightly above the 0 axis, showing obvious lack of momentum and no clear direction. The KDJ was downward but not in the oversold area. The price was mainly oscillating, and the amplitude might be enlarged due to the influence of the surrounding market [80]. 3.4 Industry Chain Summary - The impact of each link on nickel prices: - Nickel ore: Neutral. Transactions were okay, quotes were stable, freight rates were firm, and it might be affected by typhoons in the short term [83]. - Ferronickel: Neutral. Ferronickel prices remained stable, and the cost line was firm [83]. - Refined nickel: Slightly bearish. The long - term surplus pattern remained unchanged, and overseas inventory continued to accumulate [83]. - Stainless steel: Slightly bullish. The cost was firm, and the inventory decreased [83]. - New energy: Neutral. The production data were good, but the installation of ternary batteries decreased year - on - year [83].

/ 国信期货研究 Page1 国信期货有色（镍、不锈钢）季报 镍 黑天鹅灰犀牛齐舞有色仍在强势风口 底部区间 沪镍或震荡上行 2021 年 4 月 25 日 2025 年 9 月 28 日 ⚫ 主要结论： 行情方面，沪镍主力合约 2511，2025 年 9 月 25 日收于 122990 元/吨，本季 度镍价整体呈区间震荡走势。 宏观层面，全球央行开启降息周期，加拿大、美国、日本、美国等央行相继 公布利率决议。9 月 18 日凌晨（北京时间）的美联储降息备受市场关注：美联储 宣布降息 25 个基点，将联邦基金利率目标区间下调至 4.00%–4.25%。这是自 2024 年 9 月开启本轮降息周期以来的第四次降息，也是 2025 年内的首次降息。美联 储决策者的预测显示，2025 年将再降息 50 个基点，2026 年和 2027 年将各降息 25 个基点。美联储 19 位官员中，有 1 位官员认为 2025 年不降息，有 6 位官员认 为应累计降息 25 个基点，即降息 1 次，有 2 位官员认为应累计降息 50 个基点， 即降息 2 次，有 9 位官员认为应累计降息 75 个基点，即降息 3 次。有 1 位 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Shanghai Futures Exchange's base metal futures closed lower across the board on September 27, indicating a bearish trend in the market [1]. Group 1: Market Performance - Aluminum oxide fell by 1.68% [1] - Zinc decreased by 1.50% [1] - Nickel dropped by 0.86% [1] - Copper declined by 0.79% [1] - Stainless steel fell by 0.66% [1] - Aluminum decreased by 0.55% [1] - Tin dropped by 0.12% [1] - Lead decreased by 0.09% [1]

Report Information - Report Title: Nanhua Nickel & Stainless Steel Industry Risk Management Daily [1] - Date: September 25, 2025 [1] - Research Team: Nanhua New Energy & Precious Metals Research Team [1] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The nickel and stainless steel markets showed a strong and volatile trend. The nickel ore supply was unstable due to sanctions on mining companies in Indonesia and the approaching quota approval in October. The cobalt price was expected to rise, driving up the prices of MHP and nickel salts. The nickel iron price decreased due to stainless - steel demand constraints, and the stainless - steel market was also strong but with weak spot trading. The decline of the US dollar in the macro - level led to an upward movement in the non - ferrous metals market [3] - There were both positive and negative factors in the market. Positive factors included the proposed revision of the HPM formula in Indonesia, the shortening of the nickel ore quota period, continuous de - stocking of stainless steel, and the takeover of some nickel - producing areas. Negative factors included high pure nickel inventory, tariff disturbances, and weak stainless - steel spot trading [5] Summary by Related Catalogs Price and Volatility Forecast - **Nickel**: The predicted price range of Shanghai nickel was 118,000 - 126,000 yuan/ton, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 15.17% and a historical percentile of 3.2% [2] - **Stainless Steel**: The predicted price range of stainless steel was 12,500 - 13,100 yuan/ton, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 6.95% and a historical percentile of 0.3% [2] Risk Management Strategies Nickel - **Inventory Management**: When the product sales price declined and inventory had impairment risk, it was recommended to sell Shanghai nickel futures (NI main contract) at a 60% hedging ratio and sell call options (over - the - counter/on - exchange options) at a 50% hedging ratio [2] - **Procurement Management**: When the company had future production procurement needs and was worried about rising raw material prices, it was recommended to buy Shanghai nickel forward contracts (far - month NI contracts) according to the production plan, sell put options (on - exchange/over - the - counter options), and buy out - of - the - money call options (on - exchange/over - the - counter options) [2] Stainless Steel - **Inventory Management**: When the product sales price declined and inventory had impairment risk, it was recommended to sell stainless - steel futures (SS main contract) at a 60% hedging ratio and sell call options (over - the - counter/on - exchange options) at a 50% hedging ratio [3] - **Procurement Management**: When the company had future production procurement needs and was worried about rising raw material prices, it was recommended to buy stainless - steel forward contracts (far - month SS contracts) according to the production plan, sell put options (on - exchange/over - the - counter options), and buy out - of - the - money call options (on - exchange/over - the - counter options) [3] Market Data Nickel | Indicator | Latest Value |环比差值 |环比 | Unit | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Shanghai Nickel Main Contract | 122,990 | 0 | 0% | yuan/ton | | Shanghai Nickel Continuous 1 | 122,990 | 1,540 | 1.27% | yuan/ton | | Shanghai Nickel Continuous 2 | 123,160 | 1,530 | 1.26% | yuan/ton | | Shanghai Nickel Continuous 3 | 123,350 | 1,460 | 1.26% | yuan/ton | | LME Nickel 3M | 15,240 | - 195 | - 1.20% | US dollars/ton | | Trading Volume | 177,030 | 0 | 0.00% | lots | | Open Interest | 99,642 | 0 | 0.00% | lots | | Warehouse Receipts | 25,153 | 48 | 0.19% | tons | | Main Contract Basis | - 505 | 185 | - 26.8% | yuan/ton | [5] Stainless Steel | Indicator | Latest Value |环比差值 |环比 | Unit | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Stainless Steel Main Contract | 12,930 | 0 | 0% | yuan/ton | | Stainless Steel Continuous 1 | 12,930 | 35 | 0.27% | yuan/ton | | Stainless Steel Continuous 2 | 12,970 | 30 | 0.23% | yuan/ton | | Stainless Steel Continuous 3 | 13,030 | 35 | 0.27% | yuan/ton | | Trading Volume | 129,897 | 0 | 0.00% | lots | | Open Interest | 109,896 | 0 | 0.00% | lots | | Warehouse Receipts | 87,505 | - 298 | - 0.34% | tons | | Main Contract Basis | 640 | - 35 | - 5.19% | yuan/ton | [5] Inventory Data | Inventory Type | Latest Value | Change from Previous Period | | --- | --- | --- | | Domestic Social Inventory of Nickel | 41,484 tons | + 429 tons | | LME Nickel Inventory | 230,586 tons | 0 tons | | Stainless Steel Social Inventory | 909 tons | + 11.8 tons | | Nickel Pig Iron Inventory | 28,652 tons | - 614.5 tons | [6] Positive and Negative Factors - **Positive Factors**: The Indonesian APNI planned to revise the HPM formula, the nickel ore quota period was shortened from three years to one year, stainless steel had been de - stocking for several weeks, and the Indonesian forestry working group took over part of the nickel - producing area of PT Weda Bay [5] - **Negative Factors**: The pure nickel inventory was high, there were still tariff disturbances between China and the US, the EU stainless - steel import tariff was uncertain, the anti - dumping duty on Chinese stainless - steel thick plates in South Korea was implemented, and the stainless - steel spot trading was weak [5]