2025年11月24日 期货研究 商 品 研 究 商 品 研 究 2025 年 11 月 24 日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-贵金属及基本金属 观点与策略 | 黄金：降息预期回升 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 白银：震荡调整 | 2 | | 铜：库存减少，支撑价格 | 4 | | 锌：区间震荡 | 6 | | 铅：库存减少，限制价格回落 | 8 | | 锡：高位回落 | 9 | | 铝：关注下方支撑 | 11 | | 氧化铝：基本面压力仍在 | 11 | | 铸造铝合金：跟随电解铝 | 11 | | 镍：累库节奏稍有放缓，宏观与消息短线扰动 | 13 | | 不锈钢：钢价承压低位震荡，但下方想象力有限 | 13 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 黄金：降息预期回升 白银：震荡调整 刘雨萱 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020476 liuyuxuan023982@gtjas.com 【基本面跟踪】 贵金属基本面数据 | | 沪金2512 | 昨日收盘价 932.56 | 日涨幅 -0.47% | 昨日夜盘收盘价 933.90 | 夜盘涨幅 -0.66% | ...

有色金属日报 2025-11-24 五矿期货早报 | 有色金属 曾宇轲 从业资格号：F03121027 交易咨询号：Z0023147 0755-23375139 zengyuke@wkqh.cn 张世骄 从业资格号：F03120988 交易咨询号：Z0023261 0755-23375122 zhangsj3@wkqh.cn 铜 有色金属小组 【行情资讯】 吴坤金 从业资格号：F3036210 交易咨询号：Z0015924 0755-23375135 wukj1@wkqh.cn 王梓铧 从业资格号：F03130785 0755-23375132 wangzh7@wkqh.cn 刘显杰 从业资格号：F03130746 0755-23375125 liuxianjie@wkqh.cn 陈逸 从业资格号：F03137504 0755-23375125 cheny40@wkqh.cn 美联储 12 月降息概率提高，铜价下探回升，周五伦铜 3M 合约收涨 0.86%至 10778 美元/吨，沪铜主 力合约收至 86180 元/吨。LME 铜库存减少 2900 至 155025 吨，注销仓单比例下滑，Cash/3M 由贴 ...

2025年11月23日 国泰君安期货研究周报 观点与策略 | 镍：累库节奏稍有放缓，宏观与消息短线扰动 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 不锈钢：钢价承压低位震荡，但下方想象力有限 | 2 | | 工业硅：仓单去化，盘面底部支撑明显 | 11 | | 多晶硅：临近注销期，关注近月合约 | 11 | | 碳酸锂：月末下游补库、矿山复工预期，多空博弈加剧 | 20 | | 棕榈油：产地去库存疑，警惕二次下探 | 28 | | 豆油：区间震荡运行，豆棕维持做扩 | 28 | | 豆粕：关注中方采购美豆，盘面或震荡 | 34 | | 豆一：关注豆类市场情绪，盘面震荡 | 34 | | 玉米：震荡偏强 | 39 | | 白糖：关注进口政策变化 | 45 | | 棉花：预计短期维持震荡走势 | 52 | | 生猪：供应增量预期显现，近端期现共振下行 | 59 | | 花生：关注油厂入市情况 | 65 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 二 〇 二 五 年 度 2025 年 11 月 23 日 镍：累库节奏稍有放缓，宏观与消息短线扰动 不锈钢：钢 ...

Report Overview - The report is an early-morning report on Shanghai Nickel and stainless steel dated November 21, 2025, provided by the Investment Consulting Department of Dayue Futures [1]. Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. Core Views - **Shanghai Nickel**: The overall view is bearish in the medium to long term, with a short - term outlook of low - level, sideways, and weak operation. The 2601 contract is expected to move weakly in a low - level range [2]. - **Stainless Steel**: The overall view is neutral, with a short - term outlook of low - level, sideways, and weak pressure. The 2601 contract is expected to be under pressure in a low - level range [4]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Shanghai Nickel Daily View - **Fundamentals**: The external market is moving sideways at a low level. Nickel ore prices are firm, and the 2026 RKAB quota in Indonesia is expected to be 3.19 billion tons, indicating a loose supply. Nickel iron prices continue to decline, and stainless steel inventories are rising, showing an oversupply. Although short - term production may decline, the medium - to - long - term supply is strong, and inventories are continuously increasing. The production and sales data of new energy vehicles are good, but the overall boost is limited [2]. - **Basis**: The spot price is 117,600, and the basis is 1,770, which is bullish [2]. - **Inventory**: LME inventory is 255,846 (-1,986), and the Shanghai Stock Exchange warehouse receipts are 34,631 (-793), which is bearish [2]. - **Market**: The closing price is below the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is downward, which is bearish [2]. - **Main Position**: The main position is net short, and the short position is decreasing, which is bearish [2]. - **Conclusion**: The Shanghai Nickel 2601 contract will move weakly in a low - level range [2]. Stainless Steel Daily View - **Fundamentals**: The spot price of stainless steel remains flat. In the short term, nickel ore prices are firm, shipping costs are stable, nickel iron prices are falling, the cost line continues to decline, and stainless steel inventories have increased significantly. The overall situation is neutral [4]. - **Basis**: The average price of stainless steel is 13,287.5, and the basis is 952.5, which is bullish [4]. - **Inventory**: The futures warehouse receipts are 68,310 (-485), which is neutral [4]. - **Market**: The closing price is below the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is downward, which is bearish [4]. - **Conclusion**: The Stainless Steel 2601 contract will be under pressure in a low - level range [4]. Price Overview - **Nickel**: On November 20, the Shanghai Nickel main contract was at 115,380 (-450), the LME nickel was at 14,455 (-185). Spot prices of various nickel products increased by 600 compared to the previous day [11]. - **Stainless Steel**: The main contract of stainless steel was at 12,285 (-50) on November 20, and the spot prices of cold - rolled 304*2B stainless steel in various regions remained unchanged [11]. Inventory Situation - **Nickel**: As of November 14, the Shanghai Futures Exchange nickel inventory was 40,573 tons, with the futures inventory at 35,027 tons, an increase of 3,386 tons and 2,393 tons respectively. On November 20, LME inventory was 254,172 (-1,674), and Shanghai Nickel warehouse receipts were 34,079 (-552) [13][14]. - **Stainless Steel**: On November 14, the inventory in Wuxi was 584,800 tons, in Foshan was 347,400 tons, and the national inventory was 1,071,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 36,500 tons. The 300 - series inventory was 660,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 20,400 tons. On November 20, the stainless steel warehouse receipts were 65,340 (-2,970) [18][19]. Price of Nickel Ore and Nickel Iron - **Nickel Ore**: On November 20, the price of Ni1.5% red clay nickel ore CIF was 57 US dollars per wet ton, and the price of Ni0.9% red clay nickel ore CIF was 29 US dollars per wet ton, both unchanged from the previous day. Shipping costs from the Philippines to Lianyungang and Tianjin Port also remained unchanged [22]. - **Nickel Iron**: The price of high - nickel (8 - 12) wet tons was 894.5 yuan per nickel point (-2.5), and the price of low - nickel (below 2) wet tons was 3,200 yuan per ton, unchanged from the previous day [22]. Stainless Steel Production Cost - The traditional production cost is 12,536, the scrap steel production cost is 12,870, and the low - nickel + pure nickel production cost is 16,158 [24]. Nickel Import Cost Calculation - The converted import price is 115,908 yuan per ton [26].

国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-贵金属及基本金属 2025年11月21日 观点与策略 期货研究 商 品 研 究 商 品 研 究 2025 年 11 月 21 日 黄金：降息预期回升 白银：震荡调整 业 服 务 研 | 黄金：降息预期回升 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 白银：震荡调整 | 2 | | 铜：风险情绪仍弱，价格震荡 | 4 | | 锌：宏观扰动 | 6 | | 铅：库存减少，限制价格回落 | 8 | | 锡：高位回落 | 9 | | 铝：宏观扰动 | 11 | | 氧化铝：区间震荡 | 11 | | 铸造铝合金：跟随电解铝 | 11 | | 镍：镍价破位下行，承压震荡运行 | 13 | | 不锈钢：弱现实压制钢价，但下方难言广阔 | 13 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 刘雨萱 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020476 liuyuxuan023982@gtjas.com 【基本面跟踪】 贵金属基本面数据 | 贵金属基本面数据 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 昨日收盘价 | ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The Fed policymakers were seriously divided on whether to cut interest rates in December at the end - of - last - month monetary policy meeting. The number of those who thought no more rate cuts were needed this year exceeded those in favor of rate cuts, and some centrists would depend on data. Almost all agreed to stop the quantitative tightening (QT) of reducing the balance sheet (shrinking the balance sheet) [2] - The BLS will not release the October non - farm payroll report but include relevant employment data in the November report, which will be released on December 16, more than a week later than originally planned and after the Fed's last meeting this year [2] - In the raw material segment, the rainy season is approaching in the Philippines and the nickel ore grade is declining, leading to tight raw material inventories of domestic ferronickel plants. However, the ferronickel production in Indonesia remains high, and the quantity flowing back to China is expected to increase. Recently, the ferronickel price has dropped significantly, and the raw material cost has decreased [2] - On the supply side, the production profit of steel mills has been restored. With the end of the traditional consumption peak season and the expected demand from infrastructure and real estate, the production schedule of stainless - steel plants is expected to increase, leading to increased supply pressure [2] - On the demand side, the demand peak season shows weak characteristics, with low market purchasing willingness, and general overall inquiry and transaction performance. Therefore, the national stainless - steel social inventory shows a narrow increase trend [2] - Technically, with increasing positions and falling prices, the bearish sentiment is strong, and it is at the lower edge of the downward channel. It is expected that the stainless - steel futures price will fluctuate weakly, and attention should be paid to the MA10 pressure [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the stainless - steel futures main contract is 12,285 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan; the 12 - 01 contract spread is - 105 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] - The net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 12,970 lots, an increase of 2,685 lots; the main - contract position volume is 192,398 lots, an increase of 8,566 lots [2] - The warehouse receipt quantity is 65,340 tons, a decrease of 2,970 tons [2] 3.2现货市场 - The price of 304/2B coil (trimmed edge) in Wuxi is 13,250 yuan/ton, unchanged; the market price of scrap stainless - steel 304 in Wuxi is 8,900 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan [2] - The basis of the SS main contract is 560 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The monthly electrolytic nickel production is 29,430 tons, an increase of 1,120 tons; the total monthly ferronickel production is 21,700 metal tons, a decrease of 300 metal tons [2] - The monthly import volume of refined nickel and alloys is 28,570.87 tons, an increase of 4,144.03 tons; the monthly import volume of ferronickel is 1.0853 million tons, an increase of 211,200 tons [2] - The SMM1 nickel spot price is 118,200 yuan/ton, up 600 yuan; the average price of ferronickel (7 - 10%) nationwide is 895 yuan/nickel point, down 5 yuan [2] - The monthly Chinese ferrochrome production is 757,800 tons, a decrease of 26,900 tons [2] 3.4产业情况 - The monthly 300 - series stainless - steel production is 1.7627 million tons, an increase of 24,800 tons; the weekly total inventory of 300 - series stainless - steel is 591,200 tons, an increase of 20,400 tons [2] - The monthly stainless - steel export volume is 458,500 tons, a decrease of 29,500 tons [2] 3.5下游情况 - The cumulative monthly new housing construction area is 453.99 million square meters, an increase of 55.9799 million square meters; the monthly output of excavators is 31,600 units, an increase of 4,000 units [2] - The monthly output of large and medium - sized tractors is 26,200 units, a decrease of 500 units; the monthly output of small tractors is 10,000 units, an increase of 1,000 units [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report The report offers short - term outlooks for various commodities, suggesting that most commodities are in a state of shock, with some showing specific trends such as pressure or potential rebounds [2][4]. 3. Summary by Commodity Precious Metals - **Gold**: The expectation of interest rate cuts has risen, with a trend strength of 0 [2][5]. - **Silver**: It is in a state of shock adjustment, with a trend strength of 0 [2][5]. Base Metals - **Copper**: There is a lack of clear drivers, and prices are in a shock state, with a trend strength of 0 [2][9]. - **Zinc**: LME inventories are accumulating, with a trend strength of 0 [2][12]. - **Lead**: Reduced inventories limit price declines, with a trend strength of 0 [2][15]. - **Tin**: Prices have fallen from high levels, with a trend strength of 0 [2][18]. - **Aluminum**: It is in a range - bound shock, with a trend strength of 0; Alumina continues to face pressure, with a trend strength of - 1; Casting aluminum alloy follows electrolytic aluminum [2][23]. - **Nickel**: Nickel prices have broken through support and are under pressure, with a trend strength of 0; Stainless steel is suppressed by weak reality, with a trend strength of 0 [2][26][27]. Energy Metals - **Lithium Carbonate**: There are limited fundamental changes, and market sentiment changes should be monitored, with a trend strength of 0 [2][32]. Industrial Metals - **Industrial Silicon**: The strategy is to short at high prices, with a trend strength of - 1; Polysilicon: Attention should be paid to when long - short arbitrage funds leave the market, with a trend strength of - 1 [2][36]. Ferrous Metals - **Iron Ore**: Downstream demand space is limited, and the valuation is high, with a trend strength of - 1 [2][39]. - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: Both are in a wide - range shock state, with a trend strength of 0 for both [2][42]. - **Silicon Iron and Manganese Silicon**: Both are in a wide - range shock state, with a trend strength of 0 for both [2][46]. - **Coke and Coking Coal**: Both are in a wide - range shock state, with a trend strength of 0 for both [2][49]. Forestry Products - **Log**: It is in a repeated shock state, with a trend strength not mentioned [2][51]. Chemicals - **Para - Xylene**: Supply contraction squeezes downstream profits [2][28]. - **PTA**: It is in a single - sided shock market, and chasing high prices is not recommended [2][28]. - **MEG**: New device production leads to continued inventory accumulation, and supply pressure remains [2][28]. - **Rubber**: It is in a shock state [2][30]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: It has support during the shock [2][32]. - **Asphalt**: It is in a narrow - range shock [2][34]. - **PP**: Do not short in the short term, but there is still pressure in the medium - term trend [2][36]. - **Caustic Soda**: There is still pressure in the trend [2][37]. - **Pulp**: It is in a shock state [2][38]. - **Glass**: The price of the original sheet is stable [2][40]. - **Methanol**: It is in a weak shock state, and the downward space is narrowing [2][41]. - **Urea**: It has support in the short - term shock [2][43]. - **Styrene**: Attention should be paid to the increase in ethylbenzene, and it is in a short - term shock [2][45]. - **Soda Ash**: There are few changes in the spot market [2][46]. - **LPG**: Supply - demand expectations are tightening, and it is relatively resistant to decline in the short term [2][47]. - **Propylene**: Spot prices are strong, and the futures market is in a bottom - range shock [2][47]. - **PVC**: There is still pressure in the trend [2][50]. - **Fuel Oil**: Night - session prices continued to correct, and it is still weaker than low - sulfur fuel oil [2][51]. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: The weakness continues, and the price difference between high - and low - sulfur fuels in the overseas spot market remains at a high level [2][51]. Agricultural Products - **Palm Oil**: The rebound height is limited, and attention should be paid to the inventory reduction process in the producing areas [2][59]. - **Soybean Oil**: There is no driving force for a breakthrough, and it is mainly in a range - bound shock [2][59]. - **Soybean Meal**: It is in an adjustment shock [2][61]. - **Soybean No. 1**: The spot price is stable, and the futures market is in an adjustment shock [2][61]. - **Corn**: It is in a shock state [2][63]. - **Sugar**: It is in a weak state [2][65]. - **Cotton**: Futures prices maintain a shock trend [2][66]. - **Eggs**: The near - term is weak, and the far - term is strong, showing a reverse arbitrage pattern [2][68]. - **Pigs**: The cooling expectation has been realized, and the pressure is gradually being released [2][69]. - **Peanuts**: Attention should be paid to the actions of oil mills [2][70].

Report Industry Investment Rating There is no relevant content provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - Gold: Expectations of interest rate cuts are rising [2]. - Silver: Undergoing a period of fluctuating adjustment [2]. - Copper: Lacking a clear driving force, prices are oscillating [2]. - Zinc: LME inventories are accumulating [2]. - Lead: Reduced inventories are limiting price declines [2]. - Tin: Prices are falling from a high level [2]. - Aluminum: Trading within a range [2]. - Alumina: Continuing to face downward pressure [2]. - Cast aluminum alloy: Following the trend of electrolytic aluminum [2]. - Nickel: Nickel prices have broken through support levels and are under pressure, moving in a volatile manner [2]. - Stainless steel: Weak market realities are suppressing steel prices, but the downside is not expected to be significant [2]. Summary by Commodity Gold - **Price and Performance**: The closing price of Shanghai Gold 2512 was 937.00, with a daily increase of 2.01%, and the night - session closing price was 935.42, up 0.53%. Gold T + D closed at 934.28, up 2.05% daily, and 934.44 at night, up 0.39%. Comex Gold 2512 closed at 4078.30, up 0.27% [4]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of Shanghai Gold 2512 was 239,515, an increase of 2,600 from the previous day, and the open interest was 82,838, a decrease of 8,034 [4]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of Shanghai Gold was 90,426 kilograms, unchanged from the previous day, and Comex Gold inventory (in troy ounces, the day before) was 37,224,744, a decrease of 93,766 [4]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Cryptocurrencies tumbled during the session. The Fed meeting minutes showed a significant divide, with many believing it's inappropriate to cut rates in December, and some worried about a disorderly stock - market decline [4][7]. Silver - **Price and Performance**: The closing price of Shanghai Silver 2512 was 12141, up 3.81% daily, and the night - session closing price was 12035.00, up 0.63%. Silver T + D closed at 12150, up 3.78% daily, and 12038 at night, up 0.33%. Comex Silver 2512 closed at 51.065, up 1.04% [4]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of Shanghai Silver 2512 was 98,089, an increase of 22,238 from the previous day, and the open interest was 59,430, a decrease of 2,902 [4]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of Shanghai Silver was 547,685 kilograms, a decrease of 15986 from the previous day, and Comex Silver inventory (in troy ounces, the day before) was 465,535,121, a decrease of 4,000,330 [4]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Similar to gold, including cryptocurrency drops and Fed meeting - related news [4][7]. Copper - **Price and Performance**: The closing price of the Shanghai Copper main contract was 86,110, up 0.53% daily, and the night - session closing price was 86190, up 0.09%. The LME Copper 3M electronic - trading platform closed at 10,803, up 0.98% [8]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of the Shanghai Copper index was 185,519, a decrease of 23,389 from the previous day, and the open interest was 527,120, an increase of 5,581. The LME Copper 3M electronic - trading platform had a trading volume of 16,612, a decrease of 7,909, and an open interest of 317,000, a decrease of 2,389 [8]. - **Inventory**: Shanghai Copper inventory was 58,352, a decrease of 2,522 from the previous day, and LME Copper inventory was 157,875, an increase of 17,375. The cancellation - warrant ratio was 6.16%, a decrease of 0.19% [8]. - **Macro and Industry News**: The Fed meeting showed a divide on December rate - cut expectations. Peru's copper production in September increased by 3.7% year - on - year to 240,995 tons. China's copper product output in October 2025 decreased by over 10% month - on - month [8][10]. Zinc - **Price and Performance**: The closing price of the Shanghai Zinc main contract was 22420, up 0.49%, and the LME Zinc 3M electronic - trading platform closed at 2990.5, up 0.03% [11]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of the Shanghai Zinc main contract was 91247, a decrease of 2222, and the open interest was 67487, a decrease of 14839. The LME Zinc trading volume was 14603, an increase of 3454, and the open interest was 224451, a decrease of 3059 [11]. - **Inventory**: Shanghai Zinc futures inventory was 75314, a decrease of 1473, and LME Zinc inventory was 45075, an increase of 1550 [11]. - **News**: A report warns that the AI bubble may burst in 6 - 12 months. Morgan Stanley believes the power - equipment bull market is in the early - to - mid - stage [12]. Lead - **Price and Performance**: The closing price of the Shanghai Lead main contract was 17250, up 0.12%, and the LME Lead 3M electronic - trading platform closed at 2027, down 0.56% [14]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of the Shanghai Lead main contract was 46208, a decrease of 8860, and the open interest was 63895, a decrease of 5231. The LME Lead trading volume was 8497, a decrease of 383, and the open interest was 172614, an increase of 9150 [14]. - **Inventory**: Shanghai Lead futures inventory was 31206, a decrease of 1484, and LME Lead inventory was 264475, a decrease of 325 [14]. - **News**: Similar to other metals, including Fed meeting - related news [15]. Tin - **Price and Performance**: The closing price of the Shanghai Tin main contract was 288,890, down 0.51%, and the night - session closing price was 291,890, up 0.68%. The LME Tin 3M electronic - trading platform closed at 36,860, down 0.11% [19]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of the Shanghai Tin main contract was 67,408, a decrease of 10,882, and the open interest was 27,950, a decrease of 3,954. The LME Tin 3M electronic - trading platform had a trading volume of 180, a decrease of 9, and an open interest of 13,988, an increase of 53 [19]. - **Inventory**: Shanghai Tin inventory was 6,062, a decrease of 37, and LME Tin inventory was 3,055, unchanged. The cancellation - warrant ratio was 6.57%, a decrease of 0.38% [19]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Similar to other metals, including cryptocurrency drops and Fed meeting - related news [19][20]. Aluminum, Alumina, and Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Price and Performance**: The closing price of the Shanghai Aluminum main contract was 21570, up 105 from the previous day. The LME Aluminum 3M closed at 2815, up 25. The closing price of the Shanghai Alumina main contract was 2740, down 40. The closing price of the aluminum alloy main contract was 20815, up 85 [23]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of the Shanghai Aluminum main contract was 202981, a decrease of 56481, and the open interest was 347833, a decrease of 8714. The LME Aluminum 3M trading volume was 22278, a decrease of 7841 [23]. - **Inventory and Other Data**: LME Aluminum cancellation - warrant ratio was 10.13%, up from 5.41%. The LME cash - 3M spread was - 28.05 [23]. - **News**: NVIDIA's revenue growth exceeded expectations. Fed Governor Milan called for reshaping bank regulations [24]. Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Price and Performance**: The closing price of the Shanghai Nickel main contract was 115,650, up 810. The closing price of the stainless - steel main contract was 12,335, down 30 [26]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of the Shanghai Nickel main contract was 82,563, a decrease of 34,853, and the trading volume of the stainless - steel main contract was 114,420, a decrease of 7,812 [26]. - **Industry Chain Data**: The price of 8 - 12% high - nickel pig iron (ex - factory price) was 897, down 3. The price of 304/2B coil - cut edge (Wuxi) from TISCO/Zhangpu was 13,250, down 100 [26]. - **News**: An Indonesian mining area was taken over due to violations. China suspended an unofficial subsidy for imported copper and nickel from Russia [26][27].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View - The raw material cost of stainless steel has decreased due to the decline in ferronickel prices. The supply pressure is expected to increase as stainless - steel mills are likely to increase production schedules. However, the demand is weak with low market purchasing willingness, resulting in a slight increase in the national stainless - steel social inventory. Technically, with increasing positions and falling prices, the bearish sentiment is strong. It is expected that the stainless - steel futures price will oscillate weakly, and attention should be paid to the MA10 pressure [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the stainless - steel futures main contract is 12,335 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan; the 12 - 01 contract spread is - 105 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan. The net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 15,655 lots, down 240 lots; the main contract position volume is 183,832 lots, up 6,511 lots. The warehouse receipt quantity is 68,310 tons, down 485 tons [2]. 3.2现货市场 - The price of 304/2B coil (trimmed edge) in Wuxi is 13,250 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan; the market price of scrap stainless steel 304 in Wuxi is 8,850 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis of the SS main contract is 510 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The monthly electrolytic nickel output is 29,430 tons, up 1,120 tons; the total monthly ferronickel output is 21,700 metal tons, down 300 metal tons. The monthly import volume of refined nickel and alloys is 28,570.87 tons, up 4,144.03 tons; the monthly import volume of ferronickel is 1.0853 million tons, up 211,200 tons. The SMM1 nickel spot price is 117,600 yuan/ton, up 650 yuan; the average price of ferronickel (7 - 10%) nationwide is 900 yuan/nickel point, unchanged. The monthly Chinese ferrochrome output is 757,800 tons, down 26,900 tons [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The monthly output of 300 - series stainless steel is 1.7627 million tons, up 24,800 tons; the weekly total inventory of 300 - series stainless steel is 591,200 tons, up 20,400 tons. The monthly stainless - steel export volume is 458,500 tons, down 29,500 tons [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The cumulative monthly new housing construction area is 453.99 million square meters, up 55.9799 million square meters. The monthly output of excavators is 31,600 units, up 4,000 units. The monthly output of large and medium - sized tractors is 26,200 units, down 500 units; the monthly output of small tractors is 10,000 units, up 1,000 units [2]. 3.6 Industry News - In the week ending October 18, the number of initial jobless claims in the US was 232,000, and the number of continuing jobless claims rose slightly to 1.957 million from 1.947 million in the previous week. Li Qiang met with Russian President Vladimir Putin, expressing China's determination to develop mutually beneficial cooperation with Russia. In the raw material segment, the rainy season is approaching in the Philippines, and the nickel ore grade is decreasing, leading to tight raw material inventories in domestic ferronickel plants. However, Indonesia's ferronickel production remains high, and the amount flowing back to China is expected to increase [2].

（11月19日）今日全国不锈钢板价格一览 周二，佛山市场德龙304冷轧卷板报12550元/吨，较前日持平，无锡市场宏旺304冷轧卷板报12700元/ 吨，较前日持平；佛山基差-15(+50)，无锡基差135(+50)；佛山宏旺201报8850元/吨，较前日持平，宏 旺罩退430报7750元/吨，较前日持平。 | | 表 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 商品名称 | 规格 | 品牌/ | 报价 | 报价 | 交货地 | 交易商 | | | | 产地 | | 类型 | | | | 冷轧不锈 | 宏旺 1.0*1219*2438 304/2B | 宏旺 | 11650 | 市场 | 江苏省/ | 江苏鑫万佳不锈钢 | | 钢平板 | | | 元/吨 | 价 | 无锡市 | 有限公司 | | 冷轧不锈 | 宏旺 1.0*1219*2438 304/2B | 宏旺 | 11200 | 市场 | 江苏省/ | 江苏屿鑫金属科技 | | 钢平板 | | | 元/吨 | 价 | 无锡市 | 有限公司 | | 不锈钢板 | 材质:304/2B; ...