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被低估的能源新黄金,正悄悄重写全球估值逻辑
Ge Long Hui· 2025-12-20 09:25
Core Viewpoint - Lithium carbonate is currently undervalued due to market sentiment, despite undergoing a structural transformation that enhances its long-term value in the energy transition [2][4]. Demand and Supply Dynamics - The long-term demand for lithium carbonate is confirmed as electric vehicles become essential for global energy transition, with lithium remaining irreplaceable in battery systems for at least the next decade [4][6]. - New demand from energy storage, electric tools, and low-altitude economy is expanding the application boundaries of lithium carbonate [4]. - Supply constraints are emerging as high prices from the past two years lead to a reality check for new projects, filtering out players with sustainable supply capabilities [4][8]. Cost Structure and Pricing - The industry is transitioning from a phase of chaotic supply expansion to one where the cost curve dictates market dynamics, marking a clearer point for long-term investment value [4][8]. - Lithium carbonate is evolving from a uniform price commodity to a segmented pricing model based on resource quality and cost structure, emphasizing the importance of cash flow stability over price elasticity [8][10]. Market Perception and Investment Strategy - The market currently simplifies the pricing of lithium resource companies, focusing heavily on short-term price assumptions while overlooking structural differences among companies [10][11]. - As the industry matures, some lithium resource companies are expected to evolve into stable cash flow providers, while others may struggle with price volatility [11][12]. - New entrants in the lithium market are crucial for determining the industry's long-term cost floor, impacting future supply dynamics [12]. Conclusion - Lithium carbonate is characterized as a long-term asset that requires patience and a focus on cost and resource quality rather than short-term price fluctuations [16][17].