Summary of Conference Call Records Industry Overview - **Industry Focus**: Non-ferrous and new energy metals, specifically copper, tin, aluminum, zinc, lithium, and nickel markets Key Points and Arguments Copper and Tin Market Dynamics - **Market Shift**: The driving force behind copper and tin prices has shifted from fundamentals to market sentiment, influenced by geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, leading to increased risk aversion [1][2] - **Price Fluctuations**: In Q1 2026, copper prices fluctuated between 88,000 and 91,000 CNY, while tin prices saw significant volatility, with a drop of 20% due to market sentiment [2][3] - **Supply Concerns**: The processing fee for copper concentrate (TC) has dropped to -70 USD/ton, impacting smelter profits and potentially slowing refined copper supply growth in Q2 due to maintenance [1][4] Aluminum Market Insights - **Supply Shortages**: The aluminum market is experiencing significant shortages, with a reduction of 550,000 tons in the Middle East. Domestic electrolytic aluminum capacity is nearing its peak at 45 million tons [1] - **Price Projections**: If geopolitical tensions escalate, aluminum prices may reach historical highs [1][15] Zinc Market Outlook - **Price Range**: Zinc prices are expected to fluctuate between 22,000 and 24,500 CNY, with a strong support level at 22,000 CNY due to tight supply conditions [1][26] - **Demand Weakness**: Domestic demand remains weak, particularly in the construction sector, which is affecting overall consumption [20][21] Lithium Market Trends - **Supply Surplus**: A surplus of over 100,000 tons of lithium is expected in 2026, driven by increased production from salt lakes and macroeconomic factors [1][31] - **Price Decline**: Prices may drop to around 120,000 CNY/ton due to increased supply and changing market dynamics [1][32] Nickel Market Analysis - **Inventory Levels**: Nickel inventories across the supply chain are at historically high levels, indicating a prolonged period of market clearing [1][33] - **Supply Disruptions**: Recent policy changes in Indonesia have reduced nickel mining quotas by 30%, impacting supply dynamics [1][34] Semiconductor and AI Impact - **Market Correlation**: The semiconductor market is experiencing structural issues, with strong growth in AI-related hardware but declining shipments in traditional sectors like laptops and smartphones [10] Investment Strategies - **Copper and Tin**: Investors are advised to monitor price corrections and consider options strategies for risk management, especially as prices may rebound after significant declines [7][11] - **Zinc**: The market is expected to experience a range-bound trading environment, with strategies leaning towards short positions during price spikes [26][27] Additional Important Insights - **Geopolitical Risks**: Ongoing geopolitical tensions, particularly in the Middle East, are influencing market sentiment and commodity prices across various sectors [3][20] - **Macroeconomic Factors**: The potential for changes in U.S. monetary policy and inflation expectations are critical to future price movements in industrial metals [3][20][32] This summary encapsulates the key insights and projections from the conference call, highlighting the dynamics of various metal markets and the implications for investors.

Summary of the Conference Call for Donghua Technology Company Overview - Donghua Technology has over 500 billion yuan in hand orders, with overseas contracts expected to exceed 40% by 2025. The coal chemical contracts account for approximately 40%-50% of the business structure, transitioning towards a dual-driven model of "engineering + industry" [2][3]. Core Business Insights - The company achieved a revenue of approximately 10 billion yuan and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 532 million yuan in 2025, with new contracts signed amounting to about 22.3 billion yuan, all showing year-on-year growth [3]. - The coal chemical sector remains a core strength, expected to maintain its significant position during the 14th Five-Year Plan period with the rollout of large projects [2][7]. - The new energy and new materials sectors are projected to account for 20%-30% of contracts by 2025, becoming future growth drivers [2][17]. Strategic Developments - A strategic cooperation framework agreement was signed with Qinghai Dongtai Jinaier Lithium Resources Co., focusing on lithium extraction technology and project execution, enhancing the company's performance and brand in this field [5][6]. - The company is developing a green energy and new energy team to focus on lithium extraction technology and project execution, with plans to integrate green energy with traditional chemical operations [6]. Financial Performance - The growth in net profit for 2025 is attributed to the steady conversion of hand orders, cost reduction, and a significant asset impairment reversal from the Tianye project, leading to a profit growth rate that outpaces revenue growth [9]. - The company plans to maintain a stable dividend policy, with a mid-year dividend of approximately 2 yuan per 10 shares in 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of over 30% [15]. Environmental and Industrial Operations - The company has 12 environmental project companies, with 8 in operation, focusing on industrial wastewater treatment, solid waste management, and soil and water restoration [16]. - Approximately 20%-30% of key R&D projects in 2025 will be related to environmental protection, indicating a commitment to this sector despite the ongoing development of the 14th Five-Year Plan [16]. New Materials and Renewable Energy - The company is actively expanding in the new materials and renewable energy sectors, with contracts in these areas expected to account for 20%-30% of total contracts by 2025 [17]. - The PBAT project, with a capacity of 60,000 tons for PBA and 40,000 tons for PBT, is progressing as planned, with ongoing optimization of product performance and applications [20]. Market Expansion and International Strategy - The company is pursuing an internationalization strategy, focusing on countries along the Belt and Road Initiative, with overseas contracts expected to exceed 40% of total contracts by 2025 [10]. - Regional offices have been established in South America, Africa, the Middle East, and Southeast Asia to support this international expansion [10]. Future Outlook - The coal chemical sector is expected to see steady demand growth, with the coupling of coal chemical projects and new energy initiatives anticipated during the 14th Five-Year Plan period [18]. - The company is committed to adapting its production pace based on market demand and continuously optimizing technology and products in the PBAT sector [20].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The lithium carbonate futures price may be supported in the short - term due to strong demand and tight supply, with social inventory continuously decreasing but at a slower pace. The macro situation of the US - Iran conflict also creates upward pressure on prices due to capital hedging [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Lithium Compounds - SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate has an average price of 163,000 yuan, a decrease of 1,500 yuan; SMM industrial - grade lithium carbonate has an average price of 159,500 yuan, a decrease of 1,500 yuan [1] - The closing prices of lithium carbonate futures contracts 2604, 2605, 2606, 2607, and 2608 are 158,040 yuan (-7.05%), 157,200 yuan (-7.97%), 157,000 yuan (-8.07%), 157,400 yuan (-8.01%), and 157,240 yuan (-8.15%) respectively [1] Lithium Ore - The average price of lithium spodumene concentrate (CIF China) (Li20: 5.5% - 6%) is 2,313 yuan, with no change [1] - The average prices of lithium mica (Li20: 1.5% - 2.0%), lithium mica (Li20: 2.0% - 2.5%), phospho - lithium - aluminum stone (Li20: 6% - 7%), and phospho - lithium - aluminum stone (Li20: 7% - 8%) are 3,575 yuan, 5,225 yuan, 13,750 yuan, and 15,000 yuan respectively [2] Cathode Materials - The average price of lithium iron phosphate (power type) is 56,940 yuan, a decrease of 360 yuan; the average price of ternary material 811 (polycrystalline/power type) is 213,600 yuan, a decrease of 250 yuan; the average price of ternary material 523 (single - crystal/power type) is 186,750 yuan, a decrease of 500 yuan; the average price of ternary material 613 (single - crystal/power type) is 189,000 yuan, a decrease of 300 yuan [2] Price Spreads - The price difference between battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 3,500 yuan, with no change; the price difference between battery - grade lithium carbonate and the main contract is 5,800 yuan, an increase of 12,920 yuan; the price difference between the near - month and the first - continuous contract is 840 yuan, an increase of 2,400 yuan; the price difference between the near - month and the second - continuous contract is 1,040 yuan, an increase of 2,120 yuan [2] Inventory - The total inventory (weekly, tons) is 99,489 tons, an increase of 616 tons; the smelter inventory (weekly, tons) is 17,332 tons, an increase of 724 tons; the downstream inventory (weekly, tons) is 46,657 tons, an increase of 552 tons; the other inventory (weekly, tons) is 35,500 tons, a decrease of 660 tons; the registered warehouse receipts (daily, tons) is 11,318 tons, a decrease of 19,746 tons [2] Profit Estimation - The cash cost of purchasing lithium spodumene concentrate is 164,417 yuan, and the profit is - 3,567 yuan; the cash cost of purchasing lithium mica concentrate is 155,467 yuan, and the profit is 1,803 yuan [3] Industry News - The Delhi government in India plans to introduce a subsidy policy for scrapping old cars and purchasing new electric vehicles during the Delhi budget meeting next week to promote electrification and reduce the number of old, high - emission vehicles [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - The lithium carbonate market is in a stage of increasing supply and improving demand expectations. It is recommended to conduct light - position oscillating trading and pay attention to controlling risks in trading rhythm [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract is 158,620 yuan/ton, up 1,420 yuan; the net position of the top 20 is - 123,556 hands, up 6,288 hands; the position of the main contract is 212,931 hands, down 4,985 hands; the spread between near - and far - month contracts is 3,160 yuan/ton, up 2,520 yuan; the Guangzhou Futures Exchange warehouse receipt is 30,111 hands/ton, unchanged [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate is 161,500 yuan/ton, down 1,500 yuan; the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 158,000 yuan/ton, down 1,500 yuan; the basis of the Li₂CO₃ main contract is 2,880 yuan/ton, down 2,920 yuan [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The average price of spodumene concentrate (6% CIF China) is 2,420 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the average price of amblygonite is 14,675 yuan/ton, down 325 yuan; the price of lithium mica (2 - 2.5%) is 5,150 yuan/ton, down 75 yuan [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The monthly output of lithium carbonate is 53,520 tons, down 5,950 tons; the monthly import volume is 26,426.79 tons, down 431.27 tons; the monthly export volume is 596.08 tons, up 124.52 tons; the monthly operating rate of lithium carbonate enterprises is 47%, down 5 percentage points; the monthly output of power batteries is 141,600 MWh, down 26,400 MWh; the price of lithium hexafluorophosphate is 106,500 yuan/ton; the price of lithium manganate is 54,500 yuan/ton; the price of lithium cobaltate is 400,750 yuan/ton; the price of ternary material (811 type) in China is 202,500 yuan/ton, down 2,000 yuan; the price of ternary material (622 power type) in China is 182,500 yuan/ton, down 2,000 yuan [2] 3.5 Downstream and Application Situation - The price of ternary material (523 single - crystal type) in China is 198,500 yuan/ton, down 2,000 yuan; the monthly operating rate of ternary cathode materials is 45%, down 5 percentage points; the price of lithium iron phosphate is 59,300 yuan/ton, down 500 yuan; the monthly operating rate of lithium iron phosphate cathodes is 55%, up 1 percentage point; the monthly output of new energy vehicles is 694,000 vehicles, down 347,000 vehicles; the monthly sales volume is 765,000 vehicles, down 180,000 vehicles; the cumulative sales penetration rate of new energy vehicles is 41.18%, up 0.90 percentage points; the cumulative sales volume is 1,710,000 vehicles, down 125,000 vehicles; the monthly export volume of new energy vehicles is 282,000 vehicles, down 20,000 vehicles; the cumulative export volume is 583,000 vehicles, up 301,000 vehicles [2] 3.6 Industry News - Zimbabwe's cabinet approved a report on economic flagship projects in the Central Province and Masvingo Province and will maintain the ban on raw ore exports to promote value - added processing, beneficiation, industrialization, and manufacturing development [2] - On March 31, 2026, the launch meeting of the National New Energy Vehicle Power Battery Traceability Information Platform was held in Tianjin. Relevant work progress and future plans for the recycling and utilization of new energy vehicle waste power batteries were introduced, and the operation points of the platform were explained [2] - On March 31, the China Actuarial Association and the China Banking and Insurance Information Technology Management Co., Ltd. released information on the claims of new energy vehicle insurance in 2025. In 2025, the insurance industry insured 43.58 million new energy vehicles, an increase of 12.48 million or 40.1% compared with the previous year; the premium income was 190 billion yuan, providing a risk protection amount of 159 trillion yuan; the underwriting loss was 5.6 billion yuan, a reduction of 100 million yuan year - on - year; the comprehensive cost rate decreased by 1.3 percentage points year - on - year [2] - The China Automobile Dealers Association's "China Automobile Dealer Inventory Alert Index Survey" shows that in March 2026, the inventory alert index of Chinese automobile dealers was 57.5%, up 2.9 percentage points year - on - year and 1.3 percentage points month - on - month, above the boom - bust line [2] 3.7 Market Analysis - The main lithium carbonate contract oscillated weakly, with a decline of 2.62% at the close. The position decreased month - on - month, the spot price was at a premium to the futures price, and the basis weakened compared with the previous day [2] - Fundamentally, on the raw material side, the operating rate of lithium salt plants increased, boosting the demand for lithium ore. However, due to tightened overseas mine exports and undetermined resumption time of domestic large mines, the expectation of future supply tightening strengthened, and lithium ore quotes remained firm. On the supply side, the operating rate of smelters increased, and they adopted a strategy of holding prices and惜售, with few spot sales. In terms of imports, the increase in shipments from Chile will supplement the supply after arrival, so the domestic supply is increasing. On the demand side, downstream material factories are taking a cautious wait - and - see attitude, and there is a game between upstream and downstream around lithium prices, with a weak trading sentiment in the spot market. In terms of expectations, due to the good export demand for new energy vehicles and the subsequent intensive release of new models by car companies, the demand expectation may improve from the consumption side [2] - Technically, in the 60 - minute MACD, the double lines are above the 0 axis, and the green bars are expanding [2]

Price Index Trends - The Business Price Index (BPI) rose significantly in March, reaching 1103 points, a month-on-month increase of 16.4% compared to the end of February[3] - The energy index increased by 25.3%, while the chemical index surged by 32.4%, but the non-ferrous index fell by 9.5% month-on-month[4] Commodity Price Movements - In the week of March 16-20, five energy commodities saw price increases of over 5%, accounting for 35.7% of the monitored items[4] - The average price of coal in the Bohai Rim region increased by 1.7%, while the chemical price index surged by 33.8% month-on-month[5] Real Estate Market - As of March 23, the second-hand housing price indices in Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen decreased by 1.0%, 1.8%, 1.4%, and 0.8% respectively[5] - The second-hand housing prices in these cities have seen significant highs over the past year, with peaks recorded at 159.44, 192.67, 181.71, and 251.13 points[6] Emerging Industries - The photovoltaic industry composite index fell by 13.2% in March, with significant declines in prices for battery cells and polysilicon[6] - Lithium carbonate futures prices decreased by 4.9% month-on-month, while DRAM spot prices fell between 5.3% and 8.9%[9] Shipping and Logistics - The China Container Freight Index (CCFI) rose by 9.0% in the fourth week of March, with significant increases in shipping rates to Los Angeles and New York[7] - The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) decreased by 5.1% month-on-month, indicating a mixed outlook for shipping costs[8] Food Prices - The average wholesale price of pork fell by 12.7% in March, while key vegetable prices dropped by 10.9%[9] - The price index for non-food items, represented by the ICPI, decreased slightly to 99.67, reflecting a month-on-month decline of 0.2%[10]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The company achieved a revenue of 349.08 billion yuan in 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 14.96%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 51.78 billion yuan, up 61.55% year-on-year [3][17] - The company is focusing on both organic growth and acquisitions to enhance its gold mining assets, with significant projects underway to increase production capacity in strategic metals like lithium and molybdenum [6][8] Financial Performance - In Q4 2025, the company reported a revenue of 94.88 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 29.54%, and a net profit of 13.91 billion yuan, up 80.86% year-on-year [3][17] - The company’s gold revenue reached 64.68 billion yuan in 2025, a substantial increase of 83.25% year-on-year, while copper revenue was 57.83 billion yuan, up 20.06% year-on-year [5][23] - The average selling price for gold was 778 yuan per gram, an increase of 49.4% year-on-year, while copper averaged 65,000 yuan per ton, up 11.8% year-on-year [5][46] Production and Capacity Expansion - The company plans to produce 2.55 million tons of lithium carbonate in 2025, with a target capacity of 270,000 to 320,000 tons by 2028, positioning itself as a major global lithium producer [8][58] - The company’s molybdenum production is expected to reach 11,500 tons in 2025, with plans to increase this to 25,000 to 35,000 tons by 2028 [8][58] Strategic Acquisitions - The company has acquired 100% of Canadian United Gold for approximately 28 billion yuan, which is expected to significantly boost its gold production from 11.1 tons in 2024 to 25 tons by 2029 [7][51] - The company has also become the largest shareholder of Chifeng Gold, enhancing its resource base and potential for future growth [7][55] Earnings Forecast - The forecasted net profits for the company from 2026 to 2028 are 72.28 billion yuan, 88.17 billion yuan, and 107.70 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 12.04, 9.87, and 8.08 [9][61]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No information about industry investment ratings is provided in the reports. 2. Core Views Copper - Copper prices entered an adjustment phase, with slightly improved supply - demand fundamentals and reduced inventory pressure. The 232 investigation results in June will cause short - term disturbances to copper prices. In the long - term, the long - cycle logic of copper supply - demand contradiction remains unchanged, and the adjustment may provide opportunities for long - term long positions. The main contract is under pressure at 97,000 - 98,000 yuan/ton [1]. Zinc - Zinc is in a cycle of weak supply and demand, and the current contradiction in the zinc industry chain is concentrated between the mining and smelting ends. The smelting cost will support zinc prices. The demand is relatively stable, and there is a possibility of opening up the export space. The zinc price has limited room for further significant decline, and the main contract is supported around 23,000 yuan/ton [5]. Tin - The supply - side tension has been significantly alleviated, and the downstream consumption is gradually recovering. With the improvement of market risk preference, tin prices are expected to be strong in the short - term. It is recommended to buy long positions, and subsequent attention should be paid to the downstream's acceptance of high - priced tin [8]. Industrial Silicon - Industrial silicon still faces the pressure of over - supply. The cost side provides support, but the decline of polysilicon price has a negative impact. It is expected to oscillate between 8,000 - 9,000 yuan/ton. It is recommended to wait and see and pay attention to the opportunity of trying long at low prices [10]. Polysilicon - Polysilicon is in a cycle of over - supply, and the price will continue to be under pressure. The price may fall towards the minimum cash cost, and it is recommended to wait and see. If participating, consider trying long after the price stabilizes and pay attention to position control and stop - loss [12]. Aluminum - The alumina industry is in a state of over - capacity, and the price is expected to fluctuate around the industry cost line. It is recommended to maintain a short - selling idea at high prices. The electrolytic aluminum price has strong anti - decline attributes, and the short - term core operating range is expected to be 24,000 - 26,000 yuan/ton [13]. Nickel - The Indonesian policy, macro - expectations, and raw material contradictions support the price, but the slow inventory digestion restricts it. The nickel price is expected to oscillate within the range of 134,000 - 140,000 yuan/ton [14]. Aluminum Alloy - Casting aluminum alloy may present a pattern of weak supply and demand. The price is expected to operate in the range of 23,000 - 24,500 yuan/ton, following the fluctuation of electrolytic aluminum [16]. Stainless Steel - The cost logic of stainless steel is strong, with support from news and raw material shortages. The steel mill production has increased significantly, and the demand is gradually recovering but the terminal acceptance is still weak. It is expected to maintain a strong oscillation in the short - term, with the main contract in the range of 14,200 - 14,800 yuan/ton [18]. Lithium Carbonate - The supply disturbance expectations are repeated, the short - term marginal driving force of the fundamentals is weakened but still has resilience. The price is expected to oscillate widely in the range, and the main contract is expected to be between 153,000 - 160,000 yuan/ton [21]. 3. Summary by Directory Copper Price and Basis - SMM 1 electrolytic copper price is 95,600 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 0.43%. The SMM 1 electrolytic copper premium is - 55 yuan/ton [1]. Month - to - Month Spread - The 2604 - 2605 spread is - 40 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton from the previous day [1]. Fundamental Data - In February, the electrolytic copper production was 114.24 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.13%. The import volume was 15.30 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 24.95% [1]. Zinc Price and Spread - SMM 0 zinc ingot price is 23,430 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 0.04%. The import loss is - 2,852 yuan/ton [5]. Month - to - Month Spread - The 2604 - 2605 spread is - 10 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton from the previous day [5]. Fundamental Data - In February, the refined zinc production was 50.46 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 9.99%. The import volume was 0.45 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 81.26% [5]. Tin Spot Price and Basis - SMM 1 tin price is 371,550 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 2.69%. The SMM 1 tin premium is 2,000 yuan/ton [8]. Month - to - Month Spread - The 2604 - 2605 spread is - 510 yuan/ton, up 420 yuan/ton from the previous day [8]. Fundamental Data - In February, the tin ore import was 17,144 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.69%. The SMM refined tin production was 11,490 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 23.91% [8]. Industrial Silicon Spot Price and Main Contract Basis - The price of East China oxygen - passed SI5530 industrial silicon is 9,200 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of 0.54%. The basis is 795 yuan/ton, up 10.42% from the previous day [10]. Month - to - Month Spread - The main contract price is 8,352 yuan/ton, down 1.47% from the previous day [10]. Fundamental Data - The national industrial silicon production in March was 32.99 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 19.66%. The Xinjiang industrial silicon production was 20.98 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 25.94% [10]. Polysilicon Spot Price and Basis - The average price of N - type re -投料 is 38,500 yuan/kg, down 1.91% from the previous day. The N - type material basis is 3,300 yuan/ton, up 22.22% from the previous day [12]. Month - to - Month Spread - The main contract price is 35,200 yuan/ton, down 3.69% from the previous day [12]. Fundamental Data - The polysilicon production in February was 7.70 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 23.61%. The import volume was 0.16 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 54.97% [12]. Aluminum Price and Spread - SMM A00 aluminum price is 24,610 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 0.33%. The SMM A00 aluminum premium is - 100 yuan/ton [13]. Month - to - Month Spread - The AL 2604 - 2605 spread is - 75 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton from the previous day [13]. Fundamental Data - In March, the alumina production was 729.74 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 10.56%. The domestic electrolytic aluminum production was 383.11 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 10.73% [13]. Nickel Price and Basis - SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price is 136,950 yuan/ton, down 0.54% from the previous day. The 1 Jinchuan nickel premium is 3,750 yuan/ton, down 21.05% from the previous day [14]. Month - to - Month Spread - The 2604 - 2605 spread is 2,700 yuan/ton, up 3,280 yuan/ton from the previous day [14]. Supply, Demand and Inventory - China's refined nickel production in February was 32,600 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 7.45%. The import volume was 23,394 tons, a month - on - month increase of 84.63% [14]. Aluminum Alloy Price and Basis - SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 price is 24,700 yuan/ton, with no change from the previous day. The Jiangxi Baotai network ADC12 - A00 spread is - 410 yuan/ton, down 24.24% from the previous day [16]. Month - to - Month Spread - The 2604 - 2605 spread is 105 yuan/ton, up 120 yuan/ton from the previous day [16]. Fundamental Data - In February, the regenerated aluminum alloy ingot production was 35.80 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 41.31%. The primary aluminum alloy ingot production was 20.93 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 30.99% [16]. Stainless Steel Price and Basis - The price of 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) is 14,400 yuan/ton, down 0.35% from the previous day. The spot - futures spread is 410 yuan/ton, up 64.00% from the previous day [18]. Month - to - Month Spread - The 2604 - 2605 spread is 105 yuan/ton, up 120 yuan/ton from the previous day [18]. Fundamental Data - China's 300 - series stainless steel crude steel production (43 companies) in April was 190.08 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 44.07%. The Indonesian 300 - series stainless steel crude steel production (Qinglong) was 37.00 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 10.84% [18]. Lithium Carbonate Price and Basis - SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price is 163,000 yuan/ton, down 0.91% from the previous day. The SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate basis is 5,800 yuan/ton, up 181.46% from the previous day [21]. Month - to - Month Spread - The 2604 - 2605 spread is 840 yuan/ton, up 2,400 yuan/ton from the previous day [21]. Fundamental Data - In February, the lithium carbonate production was 83,030 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 15.13%. The demand was 111,503 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 10.57% [21].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - On April 1, 2026, the lithium carbonate futures market experienced a significant decline due to news and lower - than - expected demand. The price of lithium carbonate is expected to remain high and volatile in Q2 2026, with a supply - demand imbalance in the first half of the year. Short - term trading within a range is recommended [1][2][3] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - On March 31, 2026, the main contract 2605 of lithium carbonate opened at 169,000 yuan/ton and closed at 157,200 yuan/ton, a - 7.97% change from the previous day's settlement price. The trading volume was 296,998 lots, and the open interest decreased from 237,761 lots to 217,916 lots. The current basis is - 940 yuan/ton, and the number of lithium carbonate warehouse receipts increased by 953 lots to 31,064 lots [1] - According to SMM data, the price of battery - grade lithium carbonate is 160,000 - 166,000 yuan/ton, down 1,500 yuan/ton from the previous day, and the price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 157,000 - 162,000 yuan/ton, also down 1,500 yuan/ton. The price of 6% lithium concentrate is 2,360 US dollars/ton, up 25 US dollars/ton from the previous day [1] - Lithium salt plants have mostly resumed production, and the overall domestic supply is stable, with an increase in supply this week. The weekly total output of lithium carbonate is 24,814 tons, including 15,314 tons from spodumene, 3,227 tons from mica, 3,715 tons from salt lakes, and 2,558 tons from recycling [1] Inventory - According to SMM statistics, the spot inventory is 99,489 tons, a week - on - week increase of 616 tons. The smelter inventory increased by 724 tons to 17,332 tons, the downstream inventory increased by 552 tons to 46,657 tons, and other inventories decreased by 660 tons to 35,500 tons. The lithium carbonate inventory has reached an inflection point [2] Comprehensive Review - The sharp decline in the lithium carbonate futures market was mainly due to news impacts: the withdrawal of funds that previously speculated on the shutdown of Australian mines due to high oil prices; the repeated news of the Zimbabwe export ban, which affected market sentiment; and the high - level volatility of lithium carbonate prices, with lower - than - expected lithium - battery production in April. The low - inventory level of the entire industry chain weakened the market's buffer capacity, and downstream acceptance of high - priced raw materials was limited [2] Strategy - Although the futures market declined with a reduction in positions, the lithium carbonate inventory is still at a low level. It is expected that the supply - demand imbalance will continue in the first half of the year, and the price will remain high and volatile in Q2. Future attention should be paid to the resumption of production in Zimbabwe and Jianxiawo, marginal changes in inventory, and the atmosphere of the commodity market. Short - term trading within a range is recommended [3] - For trading strategies, short - term single - side trading is recommended, and no cross - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, or options trading strategies are provided [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Yesterday, the lithium carbonate futures contract 2605 dropped 7.97% to 157,200 yuan/ton. The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate decreased by 1,500 yuan/ton to 163,000 yuan/ton, the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate dropped 1,500 yuan/ton to 159,500 yuan/ton, and the price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide (coarse particles) fell 500 yuan/ton to 150,500 yuan/ton. The warehousing receipt inventory was concentratedly cancelled by 19,746 tons, leaving 11,318 tons [3]. - On the supply side, the weekly production data increased by 628 tons to 24,814 tons. In April, the expected production of lithium carbonate will increase by 4% month - on - month to 110,950 tons, with battery - grade lithium carbonate increasing by 4.17% to 81,190 tons and industrial - grade lithium carbonate increasing by 3.77% to 29,760 tons. On the demand side, the expected production of ternary materials in April will decrease by 3.85% month - on - month to 80,970 tons, while the production of lithium iron phosphate will increase by 5.53% to 450,000 tons. On the inventory side, the weekly social inventory of lithium carbonate increased by 616 tons to 99,489 tons, with downstream inventory increasing by 552 tons to 46,657 tons, inventory in other links decreasing by 660 tons to 35,500 tons, and upstream inventory increasing by 724 tons to 17,332 tons [3]. - Affected by the news that the suspension of lithium ore exports from Zimbabwe might be alleviated, the price of lithium carbonate futures dropped significantly. Further observation of policy changes is needed. Recently, the price of lithium ore has been continuously strengthening, reflecting the reality and expectation of tight circulation at the ore end. The reduction caused by the suspension of lithium ore exports from Zimbabwe may appear from late April to May. If the suspension continues, the gap will continue to widen. If there is an expectation of resuming exports, there will be a situation of tight current supply and loose future expectation. The impact of concentrated shipments should be vigilant. Therefore, with high uncertainty currently, it is difficult for the price to maintain at a high level. Also, from the current spot procurement and sales rhythm and inventory rhythm, if the price strengthens rapidly in the short term, the spot trading rhythm may slow down, causing a divergence between futures and spot prices to some extent. It is recommended to continue to pay attention to low - buying opportunities in the future [3]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Data Monitoring - Futures: The closing price of the main contract decreased from 171,620 yuan/ton on March 30, 2026, to 157,200 yuan/ton on March 31, 2026, a drop of 14,420 yuan/ton; the closing price of the continuous contract decreased from 170,060 yuan/ton to 158,040 yuan/ton, a drop of 12,020 yuan/ton [5]. - Lithium ore: The prices of lithium ore such as lithium spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF China), lithium mica (Li2O: 1.5% - 2.0%), lithium mica (Li2O: 2.0% - 2.5%), and phospho - lithium - aluminum stone (Li2O: 6% - 7%, Li2O: 7% - 8%) remained unchanged [5]. - Lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide: The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate decreased by 1,500 yuan/ton to 163,000 yuan/ton, the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate dropped 1,500 yuan/ton to 159,500 yuan/ton, and the prices of various types of lithium hydroxide also decreased to varying degrees [5]. - Other products: The price of lithium hexafluorophosphate remained unchanged at 107,000 yuan/ton. The prices of ternary precursors and cathode materials such as ternary precursor 523, ternary material 523, and lithium iron phosphate decreased to varying degrees, while the prices of some products such as manganese acid lithium and cobalt acid lithium remained unchanged [5]. 3.2 Chart Analysis - Ore prices: The report presents charts of the prices of lithium spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF), lithium mica (1.5% - 2.0%, 2.0% - 2.5%), and phospho - lithium - aluminum stone (6% - 7%, 7% - 8%) from 2024 to 2026 [6][9]. - Lithium and lithium salt prices: Charts of the prices of battery - grade metallic lithium, battery - grade lithium carbonate, industrial - grade lithium carbonate, battery - grade lithium hydroxide, industrial - grade lithium hydroxide, and lithium hexafluorophosphate from 2024 to 2026 are shown [12][14][18]. - Spreads: Charts of spreads such as the spread between battery - grade lithium hydroxide and battery - grade lithium carbonate, the spread between battery - grade lithium carbonate and industrial - grade lithium carbonate, and the spread between CIF China - Japan - South Korea battery - grade lithium hydroxide and domestic battery - grade lithium hydroxide are presented [18][20]. - Precursor and cathode materials: Charts of the prices of ternary precursors, ternary materials, lithium iron phosphate, manganese acid lithium, and cobalt acid lithium from 2024 to 2026 are provided [26][28][30]. - Lithium battery prices: Charts of the prices of 523 square ternary cells, square lithium iron phosphate cells, cobalt acid lithium cells, and square lithium iron phosphate batteries from 2024 to 2026 are shown [32][36]. - Inventory: Charts of the downstream inventory, smelter inventory, and inventory in other links of lithium carbonate from July 2025 to March 2026 are presented [39][41]. - Production cost: A chart of the production cost of lithium carbonate from 2024 to 2026, including the cash production profit of purchasing ternary pole piece black powder, lithium iron phosphate pole piece black powder, lithium mica concentrate, and lithium spodumene concentrate, is shown [44].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - China's economic recovery in Q1 is evident, with the March PMI returning to the expansion range, but there are still structural contradictions and risks from geopolitical conflicts [2]. - The RMB exchange rate is expected to be relatively strong in the short - term due to the weakening of the US dollar and China's economic resilience [3]. - The stock index is expected to be slightly stronger in the short - term but remains volatile due to uncertainties in the Middle East situation [5]. - The bond market is expected to remain volatile in the short - term [6]. - The container shipping market for European routes is expected to be weak and volatile in the short - term [9]. - The prices of various commodities are affected by multiple factors, including geopolitical conflicts, supply - demand relationships, and macro - economic policies, and their trends vary [11][12][16][22][26][30][36][40][55][59][65] Summary by Directory Financial Futures - **Market Information**: In January - February, the operating income of state - owned enterprises increased by 0.2% year - on - year, and the total profit decreased by 2.0%. The situation in the Middle East is tense, with the US and Iran having complex interactions. The central bank's monetary policy committee held its Q1 meeting, and Japan warned about the yen's decline. In March, China's manufacturing, non - manufacturing, and comprehensive PMI all returned to the expansion range [1]. - **South China's Viewpoint**: China's economic recovery is certain, but there are structural problems and risks from geopolitical conflicts. The RMB exchange rate is expected to be strong due to the weakening of the US dollar and China's economic resilience. The stock index is expected to be slightly stronger in the short - term but volatile. The bond market is expected to remain volatile [2][3][5][6]. - **Strategy Suggestion**: Export enterprises can lock in forward exchange settlement at around 6.93, and import enterprises can adopt a rolling foreign exchange purchase strategy at around 6.85 [4]. Commodities New Energy - **Carbonate Lithium**: The price of the main contract decreased by 8.40% day - on - day. The downstream enterprises maintain a strategy of replenishing inventory at low prices. In the short - term, price fluctuations are large due to macro - level factors, but the long - term demand growth logic remains unchanged [11]. - **Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon**: The silicon - based industrial chain is under pressure. Industrial silicon fluctuates widely between 8200 - 8800 yuan/ton, and polysilicon is still in a downward channel but with a narrowing decline [12][13]. Non - ferrous Metals - **Aluminum Industry Chain**: The domestic and foreign aluminum markets show a pattern of "strong aluminum and weak alumina". The macro - environment and fundamentals are in a game, and the domestic price is expected to fluctuate within a range [16][17][18]. - **Copper**: The copper price rebounds due to the possible easing of the war situation. The market shows a pattern of "external strength and internal weakness", and the price is affected by multiple factors such as inventory and supply [18][19][20]. - **Zinc**: The zinc price is expected to be mainly volatile, and attention should be paid to the upper pressure level [22]. - **Nickel - Stainless Steel**: The prices of nickel and stainless steel are expected to be mainly volatile, and attention should be paid to the impact of geopolitical factors and supply - demand relationships [22][23][24]. - **Tin**: The tin price rebounds and then enters a wait - and - see state. The main contradiction lies in the macro - level, and the price is expected to be volatile in the short - term [24]. - **Lead**: The lead price is expected to be in a narrow - range oscillation [25]. Oils and Fats and Feeds - **Oilseeds**: The USDA planting intention report shows that the US soybean planting area is unexpectedly reduced, which supports the external market. The domestic soybean meal market is affected by factors such as supply and demand, and the spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal is expected to be repaired [26][27]. - **Oils**: The Indonesian government's B50 policy is expected to be implemented, which boosts the palm oil market. The domestic palm oil and soybean oil inventories are sufficient but in a de - stocking trend, and the rapeseed oil inventory is at a low level [27][28]. Energy and Oil and Gas - **SC**: The crude oil price drops due to the news of a possible cease - fire. The market is affected by multiple factors, and there is still great uncertainty [30][31]. - **Fuel Oil**: The high - sulfur fuel oil market structure weakens, and the low - sulfur fuel oil spot premium drops significantly. The shortage of blending components still supports the price [31][32]. - **Asphalt**: The asphalt price is affected by geopolitical factors. The supply is reduced, and the demand is weak. The price is expected to be volatile, and attention should be paid to position control [32][33]. Precious Metals - **Platinum and Palladium**: The prices of platinum and palladium are oscillating strongly. The market is affected by factors such as geopolitical conflicts, Fed monetary policy, and supply - demand relationships. It is recommended to be bullish on precious metals in the medium - to - long - term [36][37]. - **Gold and Silver**: The prices of gold and silver rise strongly. The market is affected by factors such as the Middle East situation, Fed monetary policy, and economic data. It is recommended to be bullish on precious metals in the medium - to - long - term [37][38][39]. Chemicals - **Pulp - Offset Paper**: The pulp price is affected by geopolitical factors and inventory. The offset paper futures price is relatively stable. It is recommended to trade pulp futures in the short - term and try low - buying strategies for offset paper [40][41]. - **LPG**: The LPG price is supported by the expected geopolitical premium and the slowdown of inventory accumulation. It is expected to be in a short - term range - bound and strong trend [42][43]. - **PP and Propylene**: The prices of PP and propylene are affected by the Middle East situation and supply - demand relationships. The supply is expected to be reduced, and the demand is limited. The prices are expected to be supported [43][44][46]. - **Plastic**: The plastic price is expected to maintain a high - level oscillation. The supply is tightened, and the demand is mainly for rigid needs [47]. - **Rubber**: The prices of natural rubber and synthetic rubber are rising. The market is affected by geopolitical factors, supply - demand relationships, and cost factors. It is recommended to wait and see in the short - term and pay attention to geopolitical impacts [48][51][52]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Soda Ash**: The supply of soda ash is under pressure, and the demand is relatively stable. The inventory performance is better than expected. The price is expected to be affected by supply - demand relationships and macro - factors [55][56]. - **Glass**: The glass market is affected by factors such as cold - repair expectations, high inventory, and cost. The price is expected to be limited by supply and demand, and attention should be paid to macro - and emotional factors [58]. Black Metals - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: The steel price is supported by the cost of furnace materials, but the high inventory and weak supply - demand limit the upward space. The price is expected to rebound in the short - term but with limited height [59][60]. - **Iron Ore**: The iron ore market is a mix of long and short factors. The price is supported by cost and spot tightness in the short - term but is suppressed by demand and supply increment expectations in the long - term [61]. - **Coking Coal**: The coking coal price drops due to weak market sentiment and over - valuation. The supply is abundant, and the inventory is accumulating. The price is expected to have limited downward space after risk release [62][63]. - **Silicon Iron and Silicon Manganese**: The prices of silicon iron and silicon manganese fall back. The cost support logic still exists, and silicon manganese may be stronger than silicon iron [63][64]. Agricultural and Soft Commodities - **Pigs**: The pig price continues to bottom out. It is recommended to sell call options on the main contract or be bearish on the far - month contracts [65][66]. - **Cotton**: The expected US cotton planting area is higher than expected. The new - season global supply is expected to decrease, but the inflation in the US and the high domestic - foreign cotton price spread may limit the price. The short - term price is expected to be in a narrow - range oscillation [66][67]. - **Sugar**: The sugar price is expected to be in a short - term oscillation pattern due to the tense Middle East situation and cautious market sentiment [67][69]. - **Eggs**: The egg price is expected to be stable and slightly strong before the festival, with limited upward space. It is recommended to sell call options on the main contract [69]. - **Apples**: The apple futures price is expected to be strongly oscillating, supported by the scarcity of delivery products in the 05 contract [78]. - **Peanuts**: The peanut price is expected to be in a high - level oscillation. The market is affected by factors such as inventory and oil mill demand [79][80][81]. - **Jujubes**: The jujube price is expected to be in a low - level oscillation and bottom - building pattern due to the loose supply - demand relationship [80][82]. - **Logs**: The log futures price falls due to the easing of geopolitical sentiment. The price is supported by factors such as inventory consumption and stable import costs, and it is recommended to trade in the range [82][83].