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美银证券:降玖龙纸业(02689)目标价至6港元 重申“买入”评级
智通财经网· 2025-09-30 08:01
Core Viewpoint - Bank of America Securities expects Nine Dragons Paper (02689) to maintain higher dollar-denominated profits than its peers, but further expanding this advantage may face challenges [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - Nine Dragons Paper's fiscal year 2025 second half performance exceeded expectations, primarily due to cost savings from its own pulp supply, which was better than anticipated [1] - The estimated net profit per ton for the second half of fiscal year 2025 is approximately 129 RMB, with around 80 RMB attributed to cost leadership advantages [1] Group 2: Production and Cost Dynamics - The company's self-produced pulp output is projected to increase from 3 million tons in fiscal year 2025 to an estimated 4.7 million tons in fiscal year 2026, with further increases expected post-2027 [2] - However, the effects of reduced unit costs and profit margin expansion may weaken, as seen in the Guangxi Beihai plant's double-sided paper products, where net profit per ton has decreased from 800-1,000 RMB to 500-600 RMB due to competition and rising raw material costs [2] - To address potential wood chip shortages, Nine Dragons has leased vessels for possible imports and anticipates a slight increase in procurement costs in the foreseeable future [2] Group 3: Valuation and Ratings - Bank of America Securities has slightly lowered its fiscal year 2026 to 2027 forecasts for Nine Dragons Paper and reduced the target price by 8% to 6 HKD, while reiterating a "Buy" rating due to attractive valuation at 7.4 times the projected 2026 price-to-earnings ratio [1]