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方正中期期货生鲜软商品板块日度策略报告-20260401
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Soft Commodity Sector** - **Sugar**: International sugar supply surplus has improved, and domestic sugar market fundamentals are also improving. Zhengzhou sugar may rise in a wide - range shock. It is recommended to hold long positions cautiously after the main contract stabilizes on a pullback [3]. - **Pulp**: The cost support of pulp mills is emerging, but the improvement in fundamentals is limited, and the upward space of pulp may be restricted. It is recommended to operate with a short - bias in the range [4]. - **Double - offset Paper**: The spot market is stable, but the demand improvement in the peak season is limited. It is recommended to operate in the range with a short - bias [6]. - **Cotton**: The medium - term support of the cotton market remains unchanged, and the short - term futures price is expected to return to a relatively strong shock. It is recommended to hold long positions in the 05 contract cautiously [7]. - **Fresh Fruit and Vegetable Sector** - **Apple**: There is limited new driving force, and the futures price may continue to fluctuate in the high - level range. It is recommended to return to a wait - and - see state [8]. - **Jujube**: The futures price shows characteristics of having a ceiling and a floor. It is recommended to close short positions below 9000 points in the 2605 contract, and for long - position holders, it is recommended to buy protective put options at the same time. Cautious investors can hold the reverse spread of short 2605 and long 2609 [10]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 First Part: Sector Strategy Recommendation - **Fresh Fruit and Vegetable Futures** - **Apple 2605**: Return to wait - and - see. The supply side provides support, but the consumption support is insufficient, and the futures price continues to fluctuate in the high - level range. The support interval is 9000 - 9200, and the pressure interval is 11000 - 11500 [18]. - **Jujube 2605**: Short - term buying on dips. The expected production reduction may gradually be reflected in the far - month contracts, and the spot inventory begins to peak and decline. The support interval is 8700 - 9000, and the pressure interval is 9500 - 9800 [18]. - **Soft Commodity Futures** - **Sugar 2605**: Go long after stabilization. The international sugar supply surplus situation has improved, and the supply and demand fundamentals in China are improving, but the supply is still sufficient. The support interval is 5250 - 5300, and the pressure interval is 5600 - 5650 [18]. - **Pulp 2605**: Short on rallies. The rise in the outer - disk price of broad - leaf pulp drives the pulp futures to strengthen, but the peak - season demand for finished paper needs to be verified, and the improvement in the supply and demand of bleached softwood pulp is limited. The support interval is 5000 - 5100, and the pressure interval is 5350 - 5400 [18]. - **Double - offset Paper 2605**: Operate in the range. The spot market is stable, but the demand has entered the off - season. In the short term, pay attention to the support situation after the futures price further declines and the basis widens. The support interval is 4000 - 4100, and the pressure interval is 4250 - 4300 [18]. - **Cotton 2605**: Hold long positions cautiously. The significant increase in imported cotton and cotton yarn exerts short - term pressure, but the outer - disk stabilizes and rebounds, and the medium - term upward expectation of the futures price remains unchanged. The support interval is 14900 - 15000, and the pressure interval is 16300 - 16500 [18]. 3.2 Second Part: Market News Changes - **Apple Market** - **Fundamental Information**: In January 2026, the export volume of fresh apples was about 99,900 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 36.14% and a year - on - year increase of 9.44%. In February, it was about 79,100 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 20.83% and a year - on - year increase of 15.96%. As of March 25, 2026, the cold - storage inventory of apples in the main producing areas was 4.4179 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 266,400 tons. As of March 26, it was 3.8947 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 294,500 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 217,900 tons [19]. - **Spot Market Situation**: In the Shandong production area, the price of late - maturing bagged Fuji apples in stock is stable, and the transaction in cold storage is average. In the Shaanxi production area, the mainstream price is stable, and the cold - storage packaging volume is acceptable for the Tomb - sweeping Festival. In the sales area, the arrival of goods is stable, the overall sales speed is average, and the mainstream price is stable [19][20][21]. - **Jujube Market**: As of March 5, the physical inventory of 36 sample points was 11,700 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 117 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.99% and a year - on - year increase of 7.39%. The overall trading atmosphere in the market is stable [22]. - **Sugar Market**: In the first half of March, the sugar - cane crushing volume in the central - southern region of Brazil decreased by 29.67% year - on - year, the sugar - making ratio decreased by 25.27 percentage points year - on - year, and the sugar production decreased by 88.60% year - on - year. In India, the sugar - making work in the 2025/26 crushing season is coming to an end. In Thailand, as of March 25, the cumulative sugar - cane crushing volume increased by 8.81% year - on - year, and the sugar production increased by 12.01% year - on - year. As of March 25, the number of ships waiting to load sugar in Brazilian ports decreased by 6 week - on - week, and the quantity of sugar waiting to be shipped decreased by 219,700 tons. India announced that the domestic sugar sales quota for April 2026 was 2.3 million tons, a decrease of 50,000 tons compared with the same period last year. As of March 24, the non - commercial net long position of ICE sugar was - 95,804 contracts [24]. - **Pulp Market**: After the Spring Festival, the price of South American BHK pulp increased by $10 per ton in February, and the seller announced another price increase of $20 per ton in March, which led to cautious waiting and seeing from buyers. The domestic market transaction is weak, many factories shut down, and the port inventory increases by 205,000 tons [26]. - **Double - offset Paper Market**: Last Thursday, the inventory days of double - offset paper decreased by 2.05% compared with the previous Thursday, and the decline rate narrowed by 0.40 percentage points week - on - week. The industry's overall inventory - reduction speed decreased. This week, the operating load rate of double - offset paper was 57.43%, an increase of 0.07 percentage points week - on - week, and the increase rate narrowed by 0.67 percentage points week - on - week [27]. - **Cotton Market**: As of March 28, the net export contract of Egyptian cotton in two weeks was 1,544 tons, and the signing volume of India and Pakistan increased, while China cancelled some contracts. As of March 30, 2026, the total cotton inventory in Zhangjiagang Free Trade Zone was 47,500 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 0.04% [28]. 3.3 Third Part: Market Review - **Futures Market Review**: The closing prices of apple 2605, jujube 2605, sugar 2605, pulp 2605, and cotton 2605 were 9826, 8750, 5398, 5124, and 15295 respectively, with daily declines of 37, 25, 43, 58, and 90 respectively, and daily decline rates of 0.38%, 0.28%, 0.79%, 1.12%, and 0.58% respectively [29]. - **Spot Market Review**: The spot prices of apple, jujube, sugar, pulp, double - offset paper, and cotton were 4.45 yuan per catty, 9.40 yuan per kilogram, 5420 yuan per ton, 5180 yuan (Shandong Yinxing), 4350 yuan (Taiyang Tianyang - Tianjin), and 16850 yuan per ton respectively. The环比 changes were 0, - 0.10, - 40, 0, 0, and 27 respectively, and the year - on - year changes were 0.45, - 5.30, - 750, - 1300, - 800, and 1969 respectively [34]. 3.4 Fourth Part: Basis Situation No specific data summary is provided in the given text, only relevant figures are mentioned. 3.5 Fifth Part: Inter - month Spread Situation - **Apple**: The 5 - 10 spread is 1083, with a week - on - week decrease of 17 and a year - on - year increase of 954. It is expected to fluctuate strongly, and it is recommended to go long on dips [54]. - **Jujube**: The 5 - 9 spread is - 360, with a week - on - week increase of 25 and a year - on - year increase of 5. It is recommended to wait and see [54]. - **Sugar**: The 5 - 9 spread is - 33, with a week - on - week decrease of 7 and a year - on - year decrease of 139. It is expected to fluctuate, and it is recommended to wait and see [54]. - **Cotton**: The 5 - 9 spread is - 135, with a week - on - week decrease of 5 and a year - on - year increase of 5. It is expected to fluctuate weakly, and it is recommended to go short on rallies [54]. 3.6 Sixth Part: Futures Positioning Situation No specific data summary is provided in the given text, only relevant figures are mentioned. 3.7 Seventh Part: Futures Warehouse Receipt Situation - The warehouse receipt quantities of apple, jujube, sugar, pulp, and cotton are 0, 4269, 16862, 189631, and 12420 respectively. The环比 changes are 0, - 4, 0, 1468, and - 15 respectively, and the year - on - year changes are 0, - 2796, - 10548, - 185592, and 3170 respectively [88]. 3.8 Eighth Part: Option - related Data No specific data summary is provided in the given text, only relevant figures are mentioned.
纸浆早报-20260331
Yong An Qi Huo· 2026-03-31 02:28
Report Information - Report Title: Pulp Morning Report - Research Team: Energy and Chemicals Team of the Research Center - Date: March 31, 2026 [2] SP Main Contract Closing Price - On March 30, 2026, the closing price of the SP main contract was 5182.00. The closing prices from March 24 - 30, 2026 were 5210.00, 5224.00, 5156.00, 5202.00, and 5182.00 respectively. The corresponding dollar - converted prices were 660.41, 661.24, 651.91, 657.20, and 654.40. The daily price changes were 0.42406%, 0.26871%, - 1.30168%, 0.89216%, and - 0.38447% respectively. The Shandong Yinxing basis was 8, and the Jiangsu - Zhejiang - Shanghai Yinxing basis was 18 [3]. Import Profit Calculation - Using a 13% VAT calculation, for Canadian pulp: the import profit of Golden Lion (CFR) was 139.53, with a port dollar price of 780 and a Shandong region RMB price of 6300; the import profit of Lion (CFR) was - 580.06, with a port dollar price of 730 and a Shandong region RMB price of 5190. For Chilean pulp, the import profit of Yinxing (CFR letter of credit 90 days) was - 189.64, with a port dollar price of 680 and a Shandong region RMB price of 5190 [4]. Price Averages and Changes - From March 24 - 30, 2026, the national average prices of softwood pulp, hardwood pulp, unbleached pulp, and chemimechanical pulp remained unchanged at 6073.75, 4810.75, 5415.00, and 3686.25 respectively. The Shandong region average prices also remained unchanged at 6245.00, 4775.00, 5400.00, and 3600.00 respectively. The prices of cultural paper (double - offset index, double - copper index), packaging paper (white card index), and tissue paper (tissue index) also remained unchanged. However, the profit margins of double - offset paper, double - copper paper, white card paper, and tissue paper changed by - 0.1797, - 0.1500, - 0.1057, and - 0.3443 respectively [5]. Price Spreads - From March 24 - 30, 2026, the softwood - hardwood price spread changed from 645 to 580; the softwood - unbleached price spread remained at - 210; the softwood - chemimechanical price spread remained at 1380; the softwood - waste paper price spread changed from 3659 to 3614 [5].
纸浆早报-20260330
Yong An Qi Huo· 2026-03-30 05:20
Group 1: SP Main Contract Information - The closing price of the SP main contract on March 27, 2026, was 5202.00 [3] - The closing prices of the main contract from March 23 - 27, 2026, were 5188.00, 5210.00, 5224.00, 5156.00, and 5202.00 respectively [3] - The corresponding dollar - converted prices were 655.82, 660.41, 661.24, 651.91, and 657.20 respectively [3] - The daily price changes were 0.46476%, 0.42406%, 0.26871%, - 1.30168%, and 0.89216% respectively [3] - The Shandong Yinxing basis on March 27, 2026, was - 12, and the Jiangsu - Zhejiang - Shanghai Yinxing basis was - 2 [3] Group 2: Import Profit Information - With a 13% VAT calculation, the import profit of Canadian Golden Lion pulp was 139.53, while that of Canadian Lion pulp was - 580.06, and that of Chilean Silver Star pulp was - 189.64 [4] - The port dollar prices of Canadian Golden Lion, Canadian Lion, and Chilean Silver Star were 780, 730, and 680 respectively [4] - The Shandong region RMB prices of Canadian Golden Lion, Canadian Lion, and Chilean Silver Star were 6300, 5190, and 5190 respectively [4] Group 3: Pulp and Paper Price and Margin Information - From March 23 - 27, 2026, the national average prices of softwood pulp, hardwood pulp, natural pulp, and chemimechanical pulp remained unchanged at 6073.75, 4810.75, 5415.00, and 3686.25 respectively [4] - The Shandong region average prices of softwood pulp, hardwood pulp, natural pulp, and chemimechanical pulp also remained unchanged at 6245.00, 4775.00, 5400.00, and 3600.00 respectively [4] - The indices of cultural paper (double - offset and double - copper), packaging paper (white card), and tissue paper remained unchanged from March 24 - 27, 2026 [4] - The profit margins of double - offset, double - copper, white card, and tissue paper on March 27, 2026, were - 2.3444%, 7.9167%, - 9.1892%, and 7.4503% respectively, with no change from the previous data [4] Group 4: Pulp Price Spread Information - The softwood - hardwood price spread on March 27, 2026, was 600.00 [4] - The softwood - natural pulp price spread on March 27, 2026, was - 210 [4] - The softwood - chemimechanical pulp price spread on March 27, 2026, was 1380 [5] - The softwood - waste paper price spread on March 27, 2026, was 3614 [5]
纸浆早报-20260327
Yong An Qi Huo· 2026-03-27 01:55
Group 1: SP Main Contract Information - The closing price of the SP main contract on March 26, 2026, was 5156.00 [3] - The closing prices of the main contract from March 20 - 26, 2026, were 5164.00, 5188.00, 5210.00, 5224.00, and 5156.00 respectively [3] - The corresponding US - dollar prices were 655.07, 655.82, 660.41, 661.24, and 651.91 respectively [3] - The daily price changes were 1.17555%, 0.46476%, 0.42406%, 0.26871%, and - 1.30168% respectively [3] - The Shandong Yinxing basis on March 26, 2026, was 34, and the Jiangsu - Zhejiang - Shanghai Yinxing basis was 44 [3] Group 2: Import Pulp Information - With a 13% VAT calculation, for Canadian pulp, the CFR price of Golden Lion was 780 US dollars, the RMB price in Shandong was 6300, and the import profit was 148.34; the CFR price of Lion was 730 US dollars, the RMB price in Shandong was 5190, and the import loss was 521.81 [4] - For Chilean pulp, the CFR price of Yinxing (90 - day letter of credit) was 680 US dollars, the RMB price in Shandong was 5190, and the import loss was 181.96 [4] Group 3: Pulp Price Averages - From March 20 - 26, 2026, the national average prices of softwood pulp, hardwood pulp, natural pulp, and chemimechanical pulp remained unchanged at 6073.75, 4810.75, 5415.00, and 3686.25 respectively [4] - The average prices in Shandong for the same period also remained unchanged at 6245.00, 4775.00, 5400.00, and 3600.00 respectively [4] Group 4: Paper Index and Profit Margin - From March 23 - 26, 2026, the double - offset paper index, double - copper paper index, and white - card paper index remained at 5725, 5670, and 4350 respectively; the living paper index was 869 on March 23 and 26, and 867 on March 24 and 25 [4] - The profit margins of double - offset paper on March 23 - 26, 2026, were - 1.2614%, - 1.4138%, - 2.4984%, and - 2.3444% respectively; the changes were 0.1540 [4] - The profit margins of double - copper paper were 7.9167%, 7.7667%, 7.7667%, and 7.9167% respectively; the changes were 0.1500 [4] - The profit margins of white - card paper were - 9.1892%, - 9.2949%, - 9.2949%, and - 9.1892% respectively; the changes were 0.1057 [4] - The profit margins of living paper were 8.2166%, 7.3053%, 7.3053%, and 7.4503% respectively; the changes were 0.1450 [4] Group 5: Pulp Price Spreads - The softwood - hardwood price spreads from March 20 - 26, 2026, were 620, 600, 645, 645, and 600 respectively [4] - The softwood - natural pulp price spreads were - 230, - 210, - 165, - 165, and - 210 respectively [4] - The softwood - chemimechanical pulp price spreads were 1360, 1380, 1425, 1425, and 1380 respectively [5] - The softwood - waste paper price spreads were 3594, 3614, 3659, 3659, and 3614 respectively [5]
玖龙纸业:降目标价至10.8港元,维持“买入”评级-20260324
Ubs Securities· 2026-03-24 09:45
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Nine Dragons Paper Holdings Limited (玖龙纸业) despite adjustments to earnings forecasts and target price [1] Core Insights - UBS has raised its coal price forecasts for Qinhuangdao Port for 2026 to 2028, predicting prices of RMB 750, 720, and 670 per ton respectively, due to tightening global energy markets and quota reductions in Indonesia [1] - The anticipated increase in energy prices is expected to raise the average cost per ton by approximately RMB 15 to 20 [1] - Earnings forecasts for Nine Dragons Paper for the fiscal years 2026 to 2028 have been revised down by 11%, 2%, and 3% respectively, with the target price adjusted from HKD 11 to HKD 10.8 [1] - The company consumes about 0.26 tons of coal per ton of paper, and rising oil prices may further increase logistics costs, impacting profitability for the second half of fiscal 2026 [1] - Management plans to increase the proportion of imported wood chips from less than 1% to 10% to 20% by the end of 2026, which is expected to enhance supply security and improve wood chip quality, albeit at an additional cost of approximately RMB 200 per ton compared to domestic supply [1] - This shift in sourcing is projected to increase the average production cost by about RMB 5 to 10 per ton [1]
永安期货纸浆早报-20260324
Yong An Qi Huo· 2026-03-24 01:47
Group 1: SP Main Contract Information - The closing price of the SP main contract on March 23, 2026, was 5188.00 [3] - The closing prices on March 20, 19, 18, and 17, 2026, were 5164.00, 5104.00, 5040.00, and 5088.00 respectively [3] - The corresponding dollar - converted prices were 655.82, 655.07, 645.51, 639.63, and 644.73 [3] - The daily price changes were 0.46476%, 1.17555%, 1.26984%, - 0.94340%, and - 2.75229% respectively [3] - The Shandong Yinxing basis on March 23, 2026, was 2, and on March 20, 19, 18, and 17, 2026, were 6, 21, 25, and 52 respectively [3] - The Jiangsu - Zhejiang - Shanghai Yinxing basis on March 23, 2026, was 2, and on March 20, 19, 18, and 17, 2026, were 6, 16, 35, and 87 respectively [3] Group 2: Import Profit and Price Information - For Canadian pulp, the CFR price of Golden Lion was 780 dollars, the RMB price in Shandong was 6300, and the import profit was 139.53 [4] - The CFR price of Lion was 730 dollars, the RMB price in Shandong was 5210, and the import profit was - 580.06 [4] - For Chilean pulp, the CFR price of Yinxing (90 - day letter of credit) was 710 dollars, the RMB price in Shandong was 5190, and the import profit was - 423.89 [4] Group 3: Pulp and Paper Price Averages - From March 17 to 23, 2026, the national average prices of softwood pulp, hardwood pulp, natural pulp, and chemimechanical pulp remained unchanged at 6073.75, 4810.75, 5415.00, and 3686.25 respectively [4] - The average prices in Shandong for the same period also remained unchanged at 6245.00, 4775.00, 5400.00, and 3600.00 respectively [4] - The indices of cultural paper (double - offset and double - copper), packaging paper (white card), and tissue paper remained unchanged from March 18 to 23, 2026 [4] Group 4: Pulp and Paper Profit Margins - The estimated profit margins of double - offset, double - copper, white card, and tissue paper changed from March 18 to 23, 2026. The changes were - 0.6603, - 0.5666, - 1.0350, and - 0.7007 respectively [4] Group 5: Pulp Price Spreads - The price spreads between softwood and hardwood, softwood and natural, softwood and chemimechanical, and softwood and waste paper on March 23, 2026, were 600.00, - 210, 1380, and 3614 respectively [4]
瑞银:降玖龙纸业目标价至10.8港元 维持“买入”评级
Zhi Tong Cai Jing· 2026-03-23 13:22
Core Viewpoint - UBS has raised its coal price forecasts for Qinhuangdao port for 2026 to 2028 due to tightening global energy markets and quota reductions in Indonesia, leading to increased cost pressures for Nine Dragons Paper [3] Group 1: Cost Pressures - The average cost per ton is expected to rise by approximately 15 to 20 RMB due to energy price shocks [3] - The company consumes about 0.26 tons of coal per ton of paper, and rising oil prices may further increase logistics costs, impacting profitability for the second half of the fiscal year ending June 2026 [3] Group 2: Earnings Forecast Adjustments - UBS has lowered Nine Dragons Paper's earnings estimates for the fiscal years 2026 to 2028 by 11%, 2%, and 3% respectively [3] - The target price for the stock has been adjusted from 11 HKD to 10.8 HKD while maintaining a "Buy" rating [3] Group 3: Management Plans - Management plans to increase the proportion of imported wood chips from less than 1% to 10% to 20% by the end of 2026, aiming to enhance supply security and improve wood chip quality [3] - The cost of imported wood chips is approximately 200 RMB more per ton than current domestic supplies, which may increase the average production cost by about 5 to 10 RMB per ton [3]
纸浆早报-20260323
Yong An Qi Huo· 2026-03-23 01:37
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - No information provided 3. Key Points from the Report SP Main Contract Information - The closing price of the SP main contract on March 20, 2026, was 5164.00 [3] - The closing prices and related data from March 16 - 20, 2026, are presented, showing price fluctuations and percentage changes [3] Import Profit and Price Information - Import profit calculations for different pulp brands (Canadian Golden Lion, Canadian Lion, Chilean Silver Star) are provided, with values of 165.97, -605.31, and -419.82 respectively [4] - The exchange rate on the previous day was 6.88, and prices are calculated with a 13% VAT [4] Pulp Price Averages - National and Shandong regional average prices for different types of pulp (coniferous, broad - leaf, natural color, chemical mechanical) from March 16 - 20, 2026, are presented, with no changes during this period [4] Paper Index and Profit Margin Information - Index values for cultural paper (double - offset, double - copper), packaging paper (white card), and living paper from March 17 - 20, 2026, are presented, with no changes in most cases [4] - Profit margin estimates for different types of paper from March 17 - 20, 2026, are provided, with a -0.5210 change in the living paper profit margin [4] Pulp Price Spreads - Price spreads between different types of pulp (coniferous - broadleaf, coniferous - natural color, coniferous - chemical mechanical, coniferous - waste paper) from March 16 - 20, 2026, are presented [4]
纸浆专家交流
2026-03-22 14:35
Summary of Pulp Industry Conference Call Industry Overview - The global pulp market is influenced by several factors, including supply and demand dynamics, pricing strategies, and production capacity uncertainties [3][4][6]. Key Points Supply and Demand Situation - Major hardwood pulp suppliers, such as Brazil's Suzano and Chile's Arauco, implemented a price increase of $20 per month for three consecutive months in Q1, despite limited acceptance from customers in March [3][4]. - Domestic customers in China have ample inventory, leading to a cautious approach towards new orders, especially with spot prices dropping from 5,000 RMB to 4,600 RMB, which pressures paper mill profits [4][6]. - The softwood pulp market shows a mixed performance, with Canada facing high costs and U.S. tariff threats, while Finland maintains stable pricing, and Chile sees a $10 increase due to quality stability [4][5]. Pricing Dynamics - There is a significant price disparity between domestic and international pulp markets, with international hardwood pulp prices around $610, while domestic prices are lower due to recent declines [6][8]. - The U.S. has seen a price increase for softwood pulp due to a 25% tariff on Canadian imports, which has not been mirrored in the Chinese market where customers are less willing to accept price hikes [11]. Future Market Changes - The pulp market is expected to experience changes in the coming months, particularly in hardwood pulp where supply pressure is anticipated to remain low due to production adjustments [7][8]. - The domestic pulp market is not operating smoothly, with limited release of self-produced pulp capacity and a forecasted increase in hardwood pulp production capacity by 2025 [8][9]. Investment and Cost Control Trends - Despite declining investment returns in the Zhejiang region, the industry continues to expand, with new projects focusing on integrating pulp and paper production capabilities [12]. - The cost of integrated production in China remains higher than in Brazil, impacting international competitiveness [10]. Inventory Levels - Current inventory levels among traders are moderate, with a strong willingness to sell due to falling spot prices, leading to a lack of upward momentum in the market [13]. Price Stability and Market Sentiment - The willingness of companies to maintain pricing may be tested within 1 to 3 months, depending on market conditions and customer demand [14]. - Tyson Foods' announcement of a price increase may reflect a strategy to stimulate transactions rather than a definitive market trend [15]. Additional Insights - The global demand for pulp is primarily driven by China, which has seen a decrease in import volumes from 35 million tons in 2020 to below 30 million tons by 2024 [8]. - The overall economic growth in China is expected to stabilize, which may lead to reduced consumption of paper and pulp, mirroring trends observed in developed markets [8].
永安期货纸浆早报-20260320
Yong An Qi Huo· 2026-03-20 03:22
Report Information - Report Title: Pulp Morning Report - Research Team: Energy and Chemicals Team at the Research Center - Date: March 20, 2026 [2] 1. SP Main Contract Closing Price - On March 19, 2026, the closing price of the SP main contract was 5104.00 [3] - The price showed fluctuations from March 13 - 19, with a 1.26984% increase on March 19 compared to the previous day [3] - The corresponding US dollar price on March 19 was 645.51, also with daily fluctuations [3] 2. Basis - The Shandong Yinxing basis on March 19 was 21, and the Jiangsu - Zhejiang - Shanghai Yinxing basis was 16 [3] - These bases also fluctuated from March 13 - 19 [3] 3. Import Profit - Calculated with 13% VAT, the import profit of Canadian Golden Lion pulp was 148.34, while that of Canadian Lion pulp was - 696.81, and Chilean Silver Star pulp was - 480.87 [4] - The US dollar price and RMB price used Zhuochuang data, with the previous day's exchange rate at 6.90 [4] 4. Market Average Prices - From March 13 - 19, the national average prices of softwood pulp, hardwood pulp, natural color pulp, and chemimechanical pulp remained unchanged [4] - The average prices in Shandong region for these pulp types also remained stable during this period [4] 5. Paper Index and Profit Margin - The cultural paper (double - offset and double - copper), packaging paper (white card), and living paper indexes showed little change from March 13 - 19 [4] - The profit margins of these papers changed slightly, with the double - offset profit margin changing by - 0.2032, double - copper by - 0.2000, white card by - 0.1402, and living paper by - 0.1617 from March 16 - 19 [4] 6. Price Spreads - The price spreads between different pulp types (softwood - hardwood, softwood - natural color, softwood - chemimechanical, softwood - waste paper) fluctuated from March 13 - 19 [4]