大宗商品研究所 农产品研发报告 1 / 3 胶版印刷纸日报 2025 年 8 月 26 日 胶版印刷纸日报 第一部分 数据分析 | 双胶纸相关(日) | | | | 铜版纸相关 (日) | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 指标 | 价格 | 日环比(%) | 周同比(%) | 指标 | 价格 | 日环比(%) | 周同比(%) | | 双胶纸70g: 河北:晨鸣云豹 | 4900 | 0.00% | 0.00% | | | | | | 双胶纸70g: 北京:中冶银河 | 4550 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 双铜纸157g: 北京: 太阳天阳 | 5100 | 0.00% | -0.97% | | 双胶纸70g: 北京:华夏太阳 | 5000 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 双铜纸157g: 广东:晨鸣雪兔 | 5100 | 0.00% | -0.97% | | 双胶纸70g: 广东: 晨鸣云镜 | 5000 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 双铜纸157g: 广东: 华夏太阳 | 5300 | 0.00% | ...

| | | | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】31号 | | | ITC 国贸期货 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | | SAL. | | | | | | | | | 国贸期货研究院 农产品研究中心 | 杨璐琳 | 投资咨询号:Z0015194 从业资格号:F3042528 | | | 2025/8/26 | | | | | | | 纸浆价格数据 | | | | | | | | | 2025年8月25日 | 日环比 | 周珂比 | | | 2025年8月25日 | HMM | 10 WIND | | | SP2601 | 5402 | 0. 71% | -1. 35% | | 针叶浆银星 | 5800 | 0. 00% | -0. 85% | | 期货价格 | SP2511 | 5136 | 0. 55% | -2. 21% | 现货价 | 针叶浆俄针 | 5180 | 0. 58% | -2. 26% | | | SP2509 | 5088 | 0. 59% | -2. 15 ...

调研报告-胶版印刷纸 胶版印刷纸期货上市系列报告（二）： 胶版印刷纸产业近况调研 ★不同厂家、不同品质的双胶纸生产成本差异较大 双胶纸行业利润承压，企业为降低成本，逐步提高原料中化机浆占 比。此外，双胶纸生产成本也与原料纸浆的自给率以及是否自备电 厂等因素有关。据粗略测算，当前本白双胶纸的生产现金成本大约 在 3800-4200 元/吨附近，多数企业仍能维持一定毛利。 ★今年出版订单用纸需求明显后移 能 由于印刷效率提高以及产业端整体对双胶纸行情预期较为悲观等 原因，下游备货意愿降低，今年出版订单用纸需求后移，秋季招标 多数从 4 月中下旬启动，秋季教材普遍从 7-8 月才开始集中印刷。 源 化 ★当前双胶纸行业供应过剩、利润承压已成为业内共识 工 中长期来看，由于在校人数减少、国家"一教一辅"政策冲击以及 电子化阅读、短视频平台的分流，双胶纸需求下降，却仍有较多新 产能投放，因此行业利润不断被挤压。调研企业普遍认为未来 1-2 年双胶纸行情整体仍面临下行趋势，但下方空间有限，年内 10-11 月春季出版订单用纸招标季价格有望出现小幅反弹。 ★不同产业主体对胶版印刷纸期货上市态度较为分化 部分规模纸厂，尤其是 ...

冠通期货研究咨询部 胶板印刷纸现货产业链和 期货基础知识介绍 冠通期货研究咨询部 冠通期货 研究咨询部 2025年8月22日 胶版印刷纸期货将于9月10日上市交易 冠通期货研究咨询部 上海期货交易所将于2025年9月10日9时挂牌交易胶版印刷纸期货及 燃料油、石油沥青和纸浆期权，胶版印刷纸期权挂牌交易时间为2025年9 月10日21时。8月15日，中国证监会发布通知，同意上海期货交易所胶版 印刷纸期货及期权，燃料油、石油沥青和纸浆期权注册。这标志着上期 所即将上市全球首个文化用纸金融衍生品，同时加速实现成熟期货品种 期权覆盖。 冠通期货研究咨询部 造纸工业是与国民经济发展和人民生活息息相关的重要基础原材料产业。胶版印刷纸则是文化、印刷用纸的典型代表纸种，广泛应用 于诸多领域，具有市场体量大、标准化程度高、价格波动大等特点。同时我国作为全球最大的胶版印刷纸生产国和消费国，造纸行业产能 持续扩展，胶版印刷纸生产企业与经销商都面临价格、销售持续疲软的状态，企业经营压力增大，总体不利于企业稳定经营，因此胶版印 刷纸期货的上市至关重要，以满足产业可持续发展需要与避险需求。 期货市场中胶版印刷纸品种的上市，将为产业链提供 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The double - offset paper market remained stable overall, with limited changes in market transactions due to increased wait - and - see sentiment among industry players as the double - offset paper futures approached. Although production increased slightly, demand did not improve, and inventory rose. Paper mills had a strong willingness to maintain prices due to cost and profit considerations [5][8]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Data Analysis - **Double - offset paper prices**: The prices of 70g double - offset paper in various regions remained unchanged on a daily and weekly basis. For example, the price of 70g double - offset paper of Chenming Yunbao in Hebei was 4900 yuan/ton, with 0.00% daily and weekly changes [3]. - **Copperplate paper prices**: The prices of 157g double - copper paper were stable daily, but most had a week - on - week decline. For example, the price of 157g double - copper paper of Taiyang Tianyang in Beijing was 5100 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decline of 0.97% [3]. - **Pulp prices**: The prices of some types of pulp declined. The price of coniferous pulp of Yinxing in Shanghai was 5850 yuan/ton, with a daily and weekly decline of 0.85%. The price of Russian - brand coniferous pulp in the Jiangsu - Zhejiang - Shanghai region was 5150 yuan/ton, with a daily decline of 1.90% and a weekly decline of 2.83% [3]. 3.2 Market Judgment - **Market situation**: The double - offset paper market was generally stable. Dealer shipments did not improve significantly, and new orders from downstream printing factories were average. The wait - and - see sentiment increased as the futures approached [5]. - **Price in Shandong**: The mainstream negotiated price of high - whiteness double - offset paper in the Shandong market was 4850 - 4900 yuan/ton, and the price of some natural - whiteness double - offset paper was in the range of 4500 - 4700 yuan/ton, remaining stable compared to the previous day [5]. - **Wood chip market**: The purchase price of wood chips was mainly stable, with individual price increases. The purchase price of poplar chips in some northern regions was in the range of 1120 - 1400 yuan/absolute dry ton. Some pulp mills in Shandong planned to resume production, but the increase in market supply was not significant [5]. - **Inventory and production**: The inventory days of double - offset paper increased by 0.60% compared to last Thursday. The weekly operating rate was 48.52%, a decrease of 0.16 percentage points. The production increased by 0.1 million tons to 20.8 million tons, a growth of 0.5%. The production enterprise inventory was 117.8 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.2% [5][8]. - **Logic analysis**: Some paper machines were transferred or cross - scheduled, and there were planned maintenance on some production lines. Seasonal printing orders were coming to an end, and social orders were not boosted. Paper mills had a strong willingness to maintain prices to ensure profits. Pulp prices remained low, with high port inventories and sufficient supply [8]. 3.3 Related Attachments - The report provides four figures, including double - offset paper production, in - factory inventory, social inventory, and production profit, with data from 2021 - 2025 [11][14].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - In the next 1 - 2 years, China's offset printing paper (double - offset paper) industry will face significant challenges in its supply - demand pattern. With the accelerating decline of the school - age population, the total market demand is under downward pressure. Meanwhile, production capacity is still being added, and inventory reduction in the industry depends on the active reduction of factory operating rates. Overall, before the industry integration and the elimination of backward production capacity are completed, double - offset paper will remain in a long - term low - prosperity cycle [4][97]. Summary According to the Catalog 1. Offset Printing Paper Basics - **Definition**: Offset printing paper is a type of cultural paper, mainly used in teaching materials, books, periodicals, and flyers. Double - offset paper, with sizing on both sides, is the most common type in the market and is often used to represent offset printing paper [15]. - **Classification**: It can be classified by size (regular size 787mm×1092mm and large size 889mm×1194mm), quantitative (usually 60 - 180g/㎡), brightness (high - white, natural - white, etc.), and calendering grade (super - calendered and normal - calendered) [16][17]. - **Quality Standards**: The new national standard GB/T30130 - 2023 for offset printing paper came into effect on July 1, 2024, replacing the previous one. It made adjustments to technical requirements such as quantitative, thickness, and brightness [18]. - **Packaging, Storage, and Logistics**: The mainstream packaging methods are roll packaging and flat - sheet packaging. Storage and logistics are relatively stable, with local sales being the main mode, and transportation mainly by road, supplemented by water and rail for medium - and long - distance [21][22]. 2. Double - Offset Paper Industry Chain Introduction - **Position in the Industry Chain**: Double - offset paper is the product of the mid - stream papermaking process, close to end - consumer markets [23]. - **Cost Composition**: The production of double - offset paper mainly uses wood pulp, accounting for about 70%. Chemical additives are also added. The pulp ratio varies among different manufacturers [27]. 3. Double - Offset Paper Supply: Domestic Oversupply and Declining Operating Rate - **Rapid Expansion of Domestic Capacity**: Since 2021, the domestic double - offset paper capacity has been in a rapid expansion cycle. From 2020 - 2024, the capacity increased from 1224 million tons/year to 1652 million tons/year, with a compound annual growth rate of 7.8%. If the planned new capacity of 225 million tons/year in 2025 is fully realized, the capacity will reach 1877 million tons/year by the end of the year, a 13.6% year - on - year increase [29]. - **Capacity Distribution**: The capacity is mainly concentrated in the southeastern coastal areas and some central China provinces, with East China having the largest share. The industry concentration is increasing [35][37]. - **Moderate Growth in Production**: From 2015 - 2024, the production increased from 830 million tons to 948 million tons, with a compound annual growth rate of about 1.5%. The growth is moderate due to the inability of the growing capacity to be fully absorbed by the downstream market, leading to a decline in the operating rate [40]. - **Capacity Switching between Cultural Paper Types**: Most modern cultural paper machines can switch production between double - offset paper, coated paper, and other types. However, switching is restricted by high costs and is usually considered only under long - term loss expectations [43]. 4. Double - Offset Paper Demand: Slow Growth Affected by Population Structure and New Media - **Demand Structure**: From 2015 - 2024, the domestic demand for double - offset paper increased from 761 million tons to 903 million tons, with a compound annual growth rate of about 1.9%. Teaching materials accounted for about 40% of the total demand from 2018 - 2024, with obvious seasonality [44]. - **Teaching Material Demand Affected by Population Inflection Point**: The demand for teaching materials is closely related to the number of school - age students. The number of school - age children is expected to decline significantly from 2026, which will gradually lead to a downward trend in the demand for double - offset paper for teaching materials in the next 1 - 2 years [70]. - **Social Book Demand Impacted by Paperless Trend and New Media**: The retail market for books and periodicals has been affected by the paperless trend and new media such as short - videos. The growth rate of retail sales of book - magazine products has been declining [73]. 5. Double - Offset Paper Import and Export: Net Export with Limited Impact on Supply - Demand - **Import Situation**: China's double - offset paper imports are mainly from Asia, with Indonesia accounting for a large proportion. The average import volume in recent years is about 22 million tons, with an average import dependence of about 2.6%. The impact on the total market supply is limited [91]. - **Export Situation**: Since 2022, the export volume has increased. The average export volume from 2022 - 2024 is about 98 million tons, with an average export dependence of about 10.2%. The export destinations are relatively scattered [95]. 6. Double - Offset Paper Supply - Demand Balance: Oversupply and Pressured Demand - The supply - demand pattern of the double - offset paper industry will face significant challenges in the next 1 - 2 years. With the decline in demand and the continuous addition of capacity, the industry will be in a low - prosperity cycle until industry integration and the elimination of backward capacity are completed [97].

Core Viewpoint - 中金上调玖龙纸业FY25-26年业绩预期，主要因自制浆成本控制超预期，预计FY25盈利21-23亿元，同比增加165%至190% [1] Group 1: Performance and Financials - FY25业绩上调25%至18亿元，FY26上调49%至25亿元，FY27引入25亿元 [1] - 目标价上调33%至6.0港元，隐含11%上行空间 [1] - FY25归母净利润预计17-19亿元，同比增加126%至153% [1] Group 2: Production and Market Strategy - FY25造纸销量预计2100万吨，同比增长10% [2] - 公司战略重心为扩浆纸品类及强化原料布局，预计FY25投产120万吨白卡纸、60万吨文化纸、175万吨化学浆、60万吨化机浆 [2] - 预计到2025年末，纸+浆产能将突破3000万吨 [2] Group 3: Cost Management and Market Conditions - 业绩超预期的核心在于自制浆成本控制及动力煤价格下跌 [3] - 预计2025年下半年煤价环比修复，需关注自制浆成本变化对利润的影响 [3] Group 4: Capital Expenditure and Debt Management - FY25资本开支预计在130亿元以上，FY26资本开支可能仍偏高 [4] - 需关注公司负债率变化及最新投产规划 [4]

Group 1 - Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not provide an industry investment rating [1] Group 2 - Core View of the Report - Pulp prices in the futures market generally declined on August 19, 2025; while some spot prices remained stable and some increased. The supply side has price - increase announcements and production - reduction news; the demand side is still bearish for pulp prices as mainstream paper product prices have not stopped falling; and the inventory shows a cumulative trend. Currently, it is recommended to wait and see [1] Group 3 - Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 1. Pulp Price Data Futures Prices - On August 19, 2025, SP2601 was 5420, down 1.02% day - on - day and 1.24% compared to Philip; SP2511 was 5178, down 1.41% day - on - day and 1.63% compared to Philip; SP2509 was 5132, down 1.31% day - on - day and 1.61% compared to Philip [1] Spot Prices - On August 19, 2025, the spot price of coniferous pulp Silver Star was 5850, unchanged day - on - day and year - on - year; Russian Needle was 5300, unchanged day - on - day and up 0.95% year - on - year; broadleaf pulp Goldfish was 4200, unchanged day - on - day and up 1.20% year - on - year [1] Outer - Disk Quotes - In August 2025, the outer - disk quote of Chilean Silver Star was 720 dollars, down 2.70% month - on - month; Brazilian Goldfish was 510 dollars, up 4.08% month - on - month; Chilean Venus was 620 dollars, unchanged month - on - month [1] Import Costs - In August 2025, the import cost of Chilean Silver Star was 5884, down 2.68% month - on - month; Brazilian Goldfish was 4182, up 4.03% month - on - month; Chilean Venus was 5073, unchanged month - on - month [1] 2. Pulp Fundamental Data Supply - In June 2025, the import volume of coniferous pulp was 67.8 tons, down 6.09% month - on - month; broadleaf pulp was 143.5 tons, up 10.98% month - on - month. The domestic production of broadleaf pulp and chemimechanical pulp fluctuated slightly in August 2025 [1] Inventory - As of August 14, 2025, the pulp port inventory was 209.9 tons, up 2.5% month - on - month; the futures delivery warehouse inventory was 25.4 tons [1] Demand - In August 2025, the production of finished paper such as offset paper, coated paper, tissue paper, and white cardboard fluctuated slightly [1] 3. Pulp Valuation Data - On August 19, 2025, the Russian Needle basis was 122, with a quantile level of 0.867; Silver Star basis was 672, with a quantile level of 0.9. The import profit of coniferous pulp Silver Star was - 34, with a quantile level of 0.547; broadleaf pulp Goldfish was 18, with a quantile level of 0.653 [1] 4. Summary Supply - Side - Brazil's Suzano announced a 20 - dollar/ton price increase in the Asian market in August 2025, and its commodity pulp production in the next 12 - month operating cycle will be about 3.5% lower than its annual nominal capacity. Chile's Arauco notified the August quotes, with supply reductions [1] Demand - Side - Current paper product demand is basically stable, but mainstream paper product prices have not stopped falling, which is bearish for pulp prices [1] Inventory - Side - As of August 14, 2025, the inventory of China's mainstream pulp ports was 209.9 tons, up 2.5% month - on - month, showing a cumulative trend [1] Strategy - Pulp prices have dropped significantly under the influence of the commodity macro - environment, but the spot price remains stable. The broadleaf pulp basis has strengthened to over - 1000 yuan/ton, and the futures valuation is low. Currently, it is recommended to wait and see [1]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Group 2: Report's Core View - The fundamentals of pulp are strongly driven, but commodity futures are weak. It is expected that pulp futures will fluctuate [2] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Pulp Price Data - Futures prices: On August 18, 2025, SP2601 was 5476, down 0.90% day-on-day and up 0.07% week-on-week; SP2511 was 5308, down 0.23% day-on-day and up 0.08% week-on-week; SP2509 was 5200, down 0.84% day-on-day and down 0.04% week-on-week [1] - Spot prices: Coniferous pulp Silver Star was 5850, unchanged day-on-day and week-on-week; Russian Needle was 5300, unchanged day-on-day and up 0.95% week-on-week; Broadleaf pulp Goldfish was 4200, unchanged day-on-day and up 1.20% week-on-week [1] - Foreign offers: Chilean Silver Star's foreign offer was 720, down 2.70% month-on-month; Brazilian Goldfish was 510, up 4.08% month-on-month; Chilean Venus was 620, unchanged month-on-month [1] - Import costs: Chilean Silver Star was 5884, down 2.68% month-on-month; Brazilian Goldfish was 4182, up 4.03% month-on-month; Chilean Venus was 5073, unchanged month-on-month [1] Pulp Fundamental Data Supply - Import volume in June 2025: Coniferous pulp was 67.8 tons, down 6.09% month-on-month compared to May; Broadleaf pulp was 143.5 tons, up 10.98% month-on-month compared to May [1] - Shipment volume to China in May 2025 was 140 tons, up 3.30% month-on-month compared to April [1] - Domestic production: Broadleaf pulp and Chemimechanical pulp showed fluctuations in different periods [1] - Supply-side news: Brazil's Suzano announced a $20/ton price increase in the Asian market in August 2025, and its commercial pulp production in the next 12 months will be about 3.5% lower than its annual nominal capacity; Asia Symbol announced a 150 yuan/ton increase in the acceptance price of broadleaf pulp, only for long-term contract customers; pulp foreign offers decreased in volume and increased in price [1] Demand - This week, the output of major finished paper increased slightly, but the prices of finished paper remained low, providing weak support for pulp overall [2] Inventory - As of August 14, 2025, the inventory of China's mainstream pulp ports was 209.9 tons, an increase of 5.1 tons from the previous period, a 2.5% month-on-month increase, showing an inventory accumulation trend [2] Pulp Valuation Data - On August 18, 2025, the Russian Needle basis was -6, with a quantile level of 0.68; the Silver Star basis was 544, with a quantile level of 0.857 [1] - On August 18, 2025, the import profit of Coniferous pulp Silver Star was -34, with a quantile level of 0.547; the import profit of Broadleaf pulp Goldfish was 18, with a quantile level of 0.653 [1]

Group 1: General Information - Report title: Pulp Daily Report [1] - Date: August 19, 2025 [2] - Research team: Energy and Chemical Research Team [4] Group 2: Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Pulp futures 01 contract: The previous settlement price was 5,498 yuan/ton, the closing price was 5,476 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.40% [7] - Shandong wood pulp market: The intended transaction price range of softwood pulp was 5,200 - 6,700 yuan/ton, with the low - end price up 50 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The Shandong Yinxing offer was 5,850 yuan/ton [7] - Imported hardwood pulp: The new round of foreign offers were raised by 20 US dollars/ton, no change for softwood pulp [7] - June chemical pulp shipments: The shipments of 20 major pulp - producing countries increased by 4.7% year - on - year, with softwood pulp down 2.4% and hardwood pulp up 10.1% [7] - July pulp imports: The total pulp imports in China were 2.877 million tons, a 5.1% decrease from the previous month and a 23.7% increase year - on - year [7] - August 14 inventory: The weekly pulp inventory in major regions and ports increased by 4.96% month - on - month, with inventory at Qingdao and Changshu ports rising [7] - Market situation: Still in the off - season, paper mills' processing profits have not improved significantly. The pulp rebound is under pressure [7] Group 3: Industry News - On August 18, the CSRC approved the registration of offset printing paper futures and options on the SHFE. China is the world's largest producer and consumer of offset printing paper, with a market size of nearly 50 billion yuan. The new financial derivatives will help improve pricing efficiency and guide production planning [8]