1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Soft Commodity Sector** - **Sugar**: International sugar supply surplus has improved, and domestic sugar market fundamentals are also improving. Zhengzhou sugar may rise in a wide - range shock. It is recommended to hold long positions cautiously after the main contract stabilizes on a pullback [3]. - **Pulp**: The cost support of pulp mills is emerging, but the improvement in fundamentals is limited, and the upward space of pulp may be restricted. It is recommended to operate with a short - bias in the range [4]. - **Double - offset Paper**: The spot market is stable, but the demand improvement in the peak season is limited. It is recommended to operate in the range with a short - bias [6]. - **Cotton**: The medium - term support of the cotton market remains unchanged, and the short - term futures price is expected to return to a relatively strong shock. It is recommended to hold long positions in the 05 contract cautiously [7]. - **Fresh Fruit and Vegetable Sector** - **Apple**: There is limited new driving force, and the futures price may continue to fluctuate in the high - level range. It is recommended to return to a wait - and - see state [8]. - **Jujube**: The futures price shows characteristics of having a ceiling and a floor. It is recommended to close short positions below 9000 points in the 2605 contract, and for long - position holders, it is recommended to buy protective put options at the same time. Cautious investors can hold the reverse spread of short 2605 and long 2609 [10]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 First Part: Sector Strategy Recommendation - **Fresh Fruit and Vegetable Futures** - **Apple 2605**: Return to wait - and - see. The supply side provides support, but the consumption support is insufficient, and the futures price continues to fluctuate in the high - level range. The support interval is 9000 - 9200, and the pressure interval is 11000 - 11500 [18]. - **Jujube 2605**: Short - term buying on dips. The expected production reduction may gradually be reflected in the far - month contracts, and the spot inventory begins to peak and decline. The support interval is 8700 - 9000, and the pressure interval is 9500 - 9800 [18]. - **Soft Commodity Futures** - **Sugar 2605**: Go long after stabilization. The international sugar supply surplus situation has improved, and the supply and demand fundamentals in China are improving, but the supply is still sufficient. The support interval is 5250 - 5300, and the pressure interval is 5600 - 5650 [18]. - **Pulp 2605**: Short on rallies. The rise in the outer - disk price of broad - leaf pulp drives the pulp futures to strengthen, but the peak - season demand for finished paper needs to be verified, and the improvement in the supply and demand of bleached softwood pulp is limited. The support interval is 5000 - 5100, and the pressure interval is 5350 - 5400 [18]. - **Double - offset Paper 2605**: Operate in the range. The spot market is stable, but the demand has entered the off - season. In the short term, pay attention to the support situation after the futures price further declines and the basis widens. The support interval is 4000 - 4100, and the pressure interval is 4250 - 4300 [18]. - **Cotton 2605**: Hold long positions cautiously. The significant increase in imported cotton and cotton yarn exerts short - term pressure, but the outer - disk stabilizes and rebounds, and the medium - term upward expectation of the futures price remains unchanged. The support interval is 14900 - 15000, and the pressure interval is 16300 - 16500 [18]. 3.2 Second Part: Market News Changes - **Apple Market** - **Fundamental Information**: In January 2026, the export volume of fresh apples was about 99,900 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 36.14% and a year - on - year increase of 9.44%. In February, it was about 79,100 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 20.83% and a year - on - year increase of 15.96%. As of March 25, 2026, the cold - storage inventory of apples in the main producing areas was 4.4179 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 266,400 tons. As of March 26, it was 3.8947 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 294,500 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 217,900 tons [19]. - **Spot Market Situation**: In the Shandong production area, the price of late - maturing bagged Fuji apples in stock is stable, and the transaction in cold storage is average. In the Shaanxi production area, the mainstream price is stable, and the cold - storage packaging volume is acceptable for the Tomb - sweeping Festival. In the sales area, the arrival of goods is stable, the overall sales speed is average, and the mainstream price is stable [19][20][21]. - **Jujube Market**: As of March 5, the physical inventory of 36 sample points was 11,700 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 117 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.99% and a year - on - year increase of 7.39%. The overall trading atmosphere in the market is stable [22]. - **Sugar Market**: In the first half of March, the sugar - cane crushing volume in the central - southern region of Brazil decreased by 29.67% year - on - year, the sugar - making ratio decreased by 25.27 percentage points year - on - year, and the sugar production decreased by 88.60% year - on - year. In India, the sugar - making work in the 2025/26 crushing season is coming to an end. In Thailand, as of March 25, the cumulative sugar - cane crushing volume increased by 8.81% year - on - year, and the sugar production increased by 12.01% year - on - year. As of March 25, the number of ships waiting to load sugar in Brazilian ports decreased by 6 week - on - week, and the quantity of sugar waiting to be shipped decreased by 219,700 tons. India announced that the domestic sugar sales quota for April 2026 was 2.3 million tons, a decrease of 50,000 tons compared with the same period last year. As of March 24, the non - commercial net long position of ICE sugar was - 95,804 contracts [24]. - **Pulp Market**: After the Spring Festival, the price of South American BHK pulp increased by $10 per ton in February, and the seller announced another price increase of $20 per ton in March, which led to cautious waiting and seeing from buyers. The domestic market transaction is weak, many factories shut down, and the port inventory increases by 205,000 tons [26]. - **Double - offset Paper Market**: Last Thursday, the inventory days of double - offset paper decreased by 2.05% compared with the previous Thursday, and the decline rate narrowed by 0.40 percentage points week - on - week. The industry's overall inventory - reduction speed decreased. This week, the operating load rate of double - offset paper was 57.43%, an increase of 0.07 percentage points week - on - week, and the increase rate narrowed by 0.67 percentage points week - on - week [27]. - **Cotton Market**: As of March 28, the net export contract of Egyptian cotton in two weeks was 1,544 tons, and the signing volume of India and Pakistan increased, while China cancelled some contracts. As of March 30, 2026, the total cotton inventory in Zhangjiagang Free Trade Zone was 47,500 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 0.04% [28]. 3.3 Third Part: Market Review - **Futures Market Review**: The closing prices of apple 2605, jujube 2605, sugar 2605, pulp 2605, and cotton 2605 were 9826, 8750, 5398, 5124, and 15295 respectively, with daily declines of 37, 25, 43, 58, and 90 respectively, and daily decline rates of 0.38%, 0.28%, 0.79%, 1.12%, and 0.58% respectively [29]. - **Spot Market Review**: The spot prices of apple, jujube, sugar, pulp, double - offset paper, and cotton were 4.45 yuan per catty, 9.40 yuan per kilogram, 5420 yuan per ton, 5180 yuan (Shandong Yinxing), 4350 yuan (Taiyang Tianyang - Tianjin), and 16850 yuan per ton respectively. The环比 changes were 0, - 0.10, - 40, 0, 0, and 27 respectively, and the year - on - year changes were 0.45, - 5.30, - 750, - 1300, - 800, and 1969 respectively [34]. 3.4 Fourth Part: Basis Situation No specific data summary is provided in the given text, only relevant figures are mentioned. 3.5 Fifth Part: Inter - month Spread Situation - **Apple**: The 5 - 10 spread is 1083, with a week - on - week decrease of 17 and a year - on - year increase of 954. It is expected to fluctuate strongly, and it is recommended to go long on dips [54]. - **Jujube**: The 5 - 9 spread is - 360, with a week - on - week increase of 25 and a year - on - year increase of 5. It is recommended to wait and see [54]. - **Sugar**: The 5 - 9 spread is - 33, with a week - on - week decrease of 7 and a year - on - year decrease of 139. It is expected to fluctuate, and it is recommended to wait and see [54]. - **Cotton**: The 5 - 9 spread is - 135, with a week - on - week decrease of 5 and a year - on - year increase of 5. It is expected to fluctuate weakly, and it is recommended to go short on rallies [54]. 3.6 Sixth Part: Futures Positioning Situation No specific data summary is provided in the given text, only relevant figures are mentioned. 3.7 Seventh Part: Futures Warehouse Receipt Situation - The warehouse receipt quantities of apple, jujube, sugar, pulp, and cotton are 0, 4269, 16862, 189631, and 12420 respectively. The环比 changes are 0, - 4, 0, 1468, and - 15 respectively, and the year - on - year changes are 0, - 2796, - 10548, - 185592, and 3170 respectively [88]. 3.8 Eighth Part: Option - related Data No specific data summary is provided in the given text, only relevant figures are mentioned.

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the report industry investment rating is provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The Middle - East situation and oil price shocks will continue to disrupt global risk appetite. A - share market is difficult to completely shake off external emotional suppression in the short term, and it is necessary to closely monitor the evolution of the Middle - East situation, international oil price trends, and the further transmission of external market fluctuations to A - share sentiment [8][15] - The inter - bank liquidity in the bond market is still relatively abundant. The central bank's open - market operations continue to send signals of care. Treasury bond futures are generally strong, with the long - end performing better, and the short - term bond market may maintain a strong and volatile pattern [11][15] - The core logic of the commodity market is the parallel evolution of geopolitical risk premium and domestic fundamental repair. Precious metals are strong due to the Middle - East situation and macro - expectation repricing, while industrial metals such as tin benefit from the marginal recovery of manufacturing prosperity. The commodity market may still have a structural market in the short term [9][15] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market行情Analysis Stock Market - A - share market indices were under pressure, and the trading volume exceeded 2 trillion yuan. The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3891.86 points, down 0.80%; the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13478.06 points, down 1.81%; the ChiNext Index closed at 3184.95 points, down 2.70%; the STAR 50 Index closed at 1256.33 points, down 2.59%. The total A - share trading volume was about 2.01 trillion yuan, up 4.1% from the previous trading day [7] - The market showed a pattern of more falling stocks than rising stocks, with 1008 rising stocks and 4372 falling stocks. The growth technology direction adjusted significantly, while sectors such as home appliances, banks, and food and beverages were relatively resistant to decline [6][7] Bond Market - The treasury bond futures market showed a pattern of strong long - end and stable short - end. The 30 - year treasury bond futures TL2606 rose 0.15%, closing at 111.69 yuan, with a trading volume of 852.75 billion yuan; the 10 - year treasury bond futures T2606 rose 0.04%, closing at 108.40 yuan, with a trading volume of 881.23 billion yuan; the 5 - year treasury bond futures rose 0.03%, and the 2 - year treasury bond futures were flat compared with the previous day [11] - The central bank carried out 325 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net injection of 150 billion yuan. Except for the 7 - day Shibor, other term Shibor rates declined, indicating that the liquidity was further relaxed [11] Commodity Market - The commodity index declined, but non - ferrous metals performed strongly. The Nanhua Commodity Index closed at 3074.6 points, down 0.91%. Leading gainers included Shanghai silver, soybean No.1, Shanghai gold, Shanghai aluminum, and double - gum paper, while leading losers included PVC, LPG, coking coal, container shipping index (European line), and lithium carbonate [9] Trading Hotspot Tracking Recent Hot - Product Review - Artificial intelligence: Global industrialization is accelerating, and new applications are emerging. Key points to follow include changes in capital expenditure of leading enterprises, transformation of application scenarios, and product technology upgrades [14] - Commercial space: With the establishment of commercial space companies and strong support for development, key points to follow include domestic recoverable rocket launches and technological breakthroughs of overseas leaders such as SPACEX [14] - Nuclear fusion: Industrialization is accelerating, and artificial intelligence drives the increase in power demand. Key points to follow include project progress and industry bidding [14] - Big consumption: Policy promotes consumption upgrading. Key points to follow include economic recovery and further stimulus policies [14] - Securities firms: A - share trading volume is running at a high level. Key points to follow include A - share trading volume and possible changes in trading systems [14] - Precious metals: Central banks continue to increase holdings, and the Federal Reserve is expected to cut interest rates. Key points to follow include further interest - rate cut expectations of the Federal Reserve and geopolitical risks [14] - Energy and chemicals: The Middle - East geopolitical situation affects supply. Key points to follow include the progress of the conflict and changes in crude oil prices [14] - Shanghai silver strengthened significantly. Due to the uncertainty in the Middle - East and the game of macro - expectations, precious metals recovered. Shanghai tin strengthened oscillatingly, supported by the recovery of manufacturing prosperity [14] Recent Core Idea Summary - In the equity market, focus on the impact of the Middle - East situation, oil prices, and external market fluctuations on A - share sentiment [15] - In the bond market, the short - term bond market may maintain a strong and volatile pattern, with the long - end of treasury bonds performing better [15] - In the commodity market, it may show a structural market in the short term. Pay attention to the evolution of the Middle - East situation, oil price trends, and the sustainability of domestic demand recovery [15]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The pulp futures market maintains a weak fundamental pattern, with limited upside potential in the short - term due to recent position - reduction. It is expected to fluctuate weakly in the near future [6]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Price Data - **Futures Prices**: On March 30, 2026, SP2701 was 5528 yuan/ton, down 0.14% day - on - day and up 0.25% week - on - week; SP2609 was 5264 yuan/ton, down 0.30% day - on - day and week - on - week; SP2605 was 5182 yuan/ton, down 0.38% day - on - day and 0.12% week - on - week [5]. - **Spot Prices**: On March 30, 2026, the price of coniferous pulp Silver Star was 5200 yuan/ton, unchanged day - on - day and week - on - week; Russian coniferous pulp was 5050 yuan/ton, unchanged; broadleaf pulp was 4600 yuan/ton, unchanged [5]. - **Outer - disk Quotes**: In March 2026, the outer - disk quote of Chilean Silver Star was 680 dollars/ton, down 4.23% month - on - month; Chilean Star was 620 dollars/ton, up 3.33% month - on - month; Chilean Venus was 620 dollars/ton, unchanged [5]. - **Import Costs**: The import cost of Chilean Silver Star was 5559 yuan/ton, down 4.19% month - on - month; Chilean Star was 5073 yuan/ton, up 3.30% month - on - month; Chilean Venus was 5073 yuan/ton, unchanged [5]. Supply - side Data - **Import Volume**: In February 2026, the import volume of coniferous pulp was 58.02 tons, down 30.86% month - on - month; broadleaf pulp was 147.13 tons, down 2.94% month - on - month [5]. - **Domestic Production**: The domestic production of broadleaf pulp in March 2026 (as of March 26) was 26.2 tons; chemical mechanical pulp was 25.3 tons [5]. - **Supply Information**: In March, Chile's Arauco Company adjusted its wood pulp quotes, with coniferous pulp at 680 dollars/ton, broadleaf pulp Star at 620 dollars/ton (75% supply), and natural pulp Venus at 620 dollars/ton [5]. Demand - side Data - **Finished Paper Production**: In March 2026 (as of March 26), the production of offset paper was 21.60 tons, coated paper was 8.20 tons, tissue paper was 31.21 tons, and white cardboard was 38.50 tons. The demand for pulp has been stable recently, with stable finished paper prices and increased production this week. Price increase letters issued by paper mills are expected to be difficult to implement [5]. Inventory - side Data - **Port Inventory**: As of March 26, 2026, the inventory of China's mainstream pulp ports was 239.5 tons, an increase of 9.8 tons from the previous period, a 4.3% increase. The pulp inventory at the main ports has shown a trend of accumulation, turning from two consecutive weeks of de - stocking to stocking [5]. - **Futures Delivery Warehouse Inventory**: As of March 26, 2026, the inventory in the futures delivery warehouse was 18.6 tons [5].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no relevant information provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall market is affected by the tense situation in the Middle East, and investors need to remain cautious and adopt a risk - averse strategy. The situation in the Middle East, especially the conflict between the US and Iran, has a significant impact on various markets, including energy, commodities, and financial markets. In April, the end of Trump's suspension of attacks on Iranian energy facilities on April 6 and the A - share earnings report season are important observation points. The market may experience a decline in trading volume before the holiday, and the short - term rebound repair may be limited. It is recommended to control positions and wait for confirmation of volume indicators [22][23]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro News - US President Trump will visit China from May 14th to 15th, and China and the US are in communication about this [7]. - Trump postponed the attack on Iranian energy facilities by 10 days to April 6, 2026, at 8 pm Eastern Time. Iran responded to the US cease - fire proposal with four conditions [7]. - The US Department of Defense is formulating a "final blow" military option against Iran, including actions such as blockades and attacks on key facilities. Iran has organized over a million people for ground combat and warned of opening a new front [8]. - Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi discussed the Middle East situation and the Iranian nuclear issue with Canadian Foreign Minister Anand, suggesting that the international community encourage the US and Iran to return to the negotiation table [8]. - Chinese Commerce Minister Wang Wentao met with Dutch Minister of Foreign Trade and Development Cooperation Scherzma, and they exchanged views on Sino - Dutch semiconductor cooperation [8]. - The State Administration for Market Regulation emphasized strengthening anti - monopoly supervision and law enforcement, and 96 central departments publicly announced their 2026 budgets with a 7.2% year - on - year decrease in the "Three Public Expenses" [9]. - Domestic airline fuel surcharges will increase on April 5, 2026 [9]. 3.2 Main Variety Morning Meeting Views 3.2.1 Agricultural Products - **Sugar**: On March 30, the sugar price closed down with a decrease in trading volume. The domestic supply is relatively abundant, but the international market provides support. If the price can stabilize above 5400 yuan/ton, a light - position long position can be considered, with a resistance level around 5500 yuan [11]. - **Corn**: On March 30, the corn price broke through the lower limit of the previous oscillation range. The supply pressure is significant, and the demand is weak. It is recommended to short on rallies, with a resistance level at 2350 - 2360 yuan and a support level at 2330 yuan [11]. - **Peanut**: On March 30, the peanut price oscillated at a high level with a decrease in trading volume. The supply is tight, and the demand is divided. It is expected to maintain a high - level oscillation pattern, and it is recommended to wait and see or short on rallies, with a support level at 8000 yuan [11]. - **Pig**: The national average pig price was stable, showing a pattern of "rising in the north and falling in the south". The short - position should be reduced as the market shows signs of stabilization [13]. - **Egg**: The national egg price was stable. The futures price adjusted, and it is recommended to short in the short term [13]. - **Red Date**: The domestic red date market has weak supply and demand, and it is recommended to operate within the range [13]. - **Cotton**: On March 30, the cotton price oscillated within a narrow range. The supply is supported by production reduction expectations, and the demand has improved. It is recommended to go long at the lower limit of the oscillation range, with a resistance level at 15500 yuan/ton and a support level at 15300 yuan/ton [13]. 3.2.2 Energy and Chemicals - **Caustic Soda**: The price of caustic soda in Shandong increased. Overseas supply is tightening, and domestic exports are expected to strengthen. However, attention should be paid to the risk of near - month contract correction [13]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The supply of coking coal and coke increased, and the downstream demand also increased. The first round of coke price increase is expected to be implemented on April 1. It is expected that the overall trend will be strong, with support levels at 1150 - 1200 yuan for coking coal and 1700 yuan for coke [15]. - **Double - offset Paper**: The supply pressure of double - offset paper is high, and the demand is weak. The price is restricted by supply and inventory. It is recommended to trade within the range of 4000 - 4200 yuan [15]. - **Urea**: The domestic urea price is stable. The supply and demand are in a balanced state. The UR2605 contract is expected to operate within the range of 1780 - 1950 yuan/ton [15]. 3.2.3 Non - ferrous Metals - **Gold and Silver**: The prices of gold and silver rose due to the tense situation in the Middle East and the Fed's monetary policy signal. The prices are oscillating at a high level, and attention should be paid to risks [15]. - **Copper and Aluminum**: The prices of copper and aluminum are affected by the situation in the Middle East. The copper - aluminum ratio may continue to decline. Attention should be paid to relevant economic data [15][17]. - **Alumina**: The domestic alumina supply is large, but there are concerns about the supply of bauxite from Guinea. It is recommended to go long at low prices, while being vigilant against macro risks [17]. - **Rebar and Hot - rolled Coil**: The spot market of rebar and hot - rolled coil is weak, and the inventory is decreasing. The steel price is expected to oscillate and adjust slightly [17]. - **Ferroalloy**: The ferroalloy market is oscillating at a high level. The cost is supported, but attention should be paid to the situation in the Middle East [17]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The price of lithium carbonate continued to be strong and broke through the previous high. The supply is disturbed, and the demand is slightly increasing. It is recommended to take a long - position strategy, while being vigilant against high - level oscillation risks [17][19]. 3.2.4 Options and Finance - **Options**: On March 30, the A - share market had mixed performance. The trading volume of the stock index futures decreased, and the implied volatility of options increased. Trend investors can focus on arbitrage opportunities between varieties, and volatility investors can trade according to the price trend [21]. - **Stock Index**: On March 30, the three major A - share indexes had mixed performance. The European and American stock markets also had mixed performance. The market is affected by the situation in the Middle East and the Fed's interest rate policy. It is recommended to control positions and wait for market stabilization [21].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The positive expectations of biodiesel support the strengthening of edible oils. The prices of soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil are expected to be oscillating upwards. Considering the high uncertainty in the Middle East situation, high - running crude oil prices, and the expected increase in biodiesel demand, it is recommended to focus on the strategy of buying at stage - low prices [1][6]. - For protein meal, the supply - demand is weak on both sides, and the market will continue to oscillate. The market for soybean meal and rapeseed meal will be affected by the Middle East situation and industrial factors, showing an oscillating trend [7]. - The sentiment in the corn market is loosening, and both futures and spot prices are falling. In the short - term, the price will face callbacks, and in the medium - term, it will maintain an oscillating range [9]. - The supply of live pigs remains high, and the pig price is still weak. In the short - term, the price will run weakly; in the medium - term, the downward cycle continues; in the long - term, the pig price is expected to gradually bottom out and warm up in the third quarter [10]. - The sentiment in the natural rubber market is warm, and the market will maintain an oscillating trend. The price is mainly driven by the macro - logic, and there are some positive factors on the supply side [11][13]. - The sentiment in the synthetic rubber market has cooled slightly, and it maintains a high - level oscillation. The tight supply of butadiene supports the market, and it is still likely to rise [14]. - The cotton price is running strongly. In the medium - and long - term, both the domestic and international cotton markets are bullish, and in the short - term, the 05 contract will oscillate strongly [15][16]. - The sugar price is oscillating, and the supply - demand pattern is still loose, waiting for the new - season harvest in Brazil. In the short - term, it will oscillate, and in the medium - and long - term, there may be an upward driving force [17][18]. - The pulp market is in a stalemate and maintains an oscillating trend. The price is restricted by the weak supply - demand of softwood pulp but supported by costs [20][21]. - The double - offset paper market is weakly oscillating. In the short - term, the spot price drags down the market, and in the medium - term, the publishing tender will support the price [22][23]. - The log inventory is decreasing, and the market is strongly oscillating. The high cost and low inventory support the market, but there is a risk of high - level oscillation [24]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1.行情观点 3.1.1. Oils and Fats - **Viewpoint**: The positive expectations of biodiesel support the strengthening of edible oils [1][6]. - **Logic**: Geopolitical risks exist, and oil prices are oscillating at a high level. Indonesia will continue the biodiesel B50 plan, and Malaysia's palm oil production decreased and exports increased in March. The US EPA released renewable fuel obligation targets, increasing the production and consumption of biodiesel. Domestic soybean oil inventory decreased due to refinery maintenance, and rapeseed oil inventory decreased weekly, with expected increased supply [1][6][8]. - **Outlook**: Soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil are expected to oscillate upwards. It is recommended to focus on the strategy of buying at stage - low prices [1][6]. 3.1.2. Protein Meal - **Viewpoint**: The supply - demand is weak on both sides, and the market will continue to oscillate [7]. - **Logic**: Internationally, the market expects an increase in US soybean planting area, and the Middle East situation affects oil prices. The renewable fuel obligation targets are in line with expectations, and there are both positive and negative factors for US soybeans. Domestically, oil mills are actively hedging, and the market expects a decrease in soybean crushing volume. Feed enterprises' demand is weak [7]. - **Outlook**: Soybean meal and rapeseed meal will oscillate [7]. 3.1.3. Corn - **Viewpoint**: The sentiment is loosening, and both futures and spot prices are falling [9]. - **Logic**: Upstream, the warming temperature leads to an increase in the grain - selling rhythm. Downstream, the demand from the feed and deep - processing sectors is stable and recovering. The supply - demand pattern is gradually easing, and there is competition from substitute grains [9]. - **Outlook**: The price will oscillate. In the short - term, there is a risk of callbacks, and in the medium - term, it will maintain an oscillating range [9]. 3.1.4. Live Pigs - **Viewpoint**: The supply remains high, and the pig price is still weak [10]. - **Logic**: In the short - term, the supply is abundant, and the demand is weak. In the medium - term, the出栏 pressure continues. In the long - term, the production capacity reduction process is not smooth, and the pig price is expected to bottom out and warm up in the third quarter [10]. - **Outlook**: The price will oscillate weakly. In the first half of the year, it is recommended to focus on the hedging opportunity of short - selling at high prices. In the fourth quarter, the price is expected to rise moderately [10]. 3.1.5. Natural Rubber - **Viewpoint**: The sentiment in the market is warm [11]. - **Logic**: The market risk preference is improving, and the price is mainly driven by the macro - logic. There are some positive factors on the supply side, and the downstream inventory is relatively optimistic. There is a need for price adjustment seasonally [13]. - **Outlook**: The market will maintain an oscillating trend [13]. 3.1.6. Synthetic Rubber - **Viewpoint**: The sentiment has cooled slightly, and it maintains a high - level oscillation [14]. - **Logic**: The tight supply of butadiene supports the market. Although the upward momentum has cooled, the supply shortage situation remains, and it is still likely to rise [14]. - **Outlook**: The market will follow the sector sentiment. If the crude oil price continues to rise, the market will remain strong in the short - term [14][15]. 3.1.7. Cotton - **Viewpoint**: The cotton price is running strongly [15]. - **Logic**: Internationally, the supply of cotton in the 26/27 season is expected to tighten. Domestically, the commercial inventory is decreasing, and the demand is stable. The overall fundamentals are positive [16]. - **Outlook**: The market will oscillate strongly. In the medium - and long - term, it is bullish, and it is recommended to focus on the opportunity of buying at low prices after callbacks [16][17]. 3.1.8. Sugar - **Viewpoint**: The sugar price is oscillating, and the supply - demand pattern is still loose, waiting for the new - season harvest in Brazil [17]. - **Logic**: In the short - term, the price will oscillate due to the impact of the Middle East conflict on oil prices. In the medium - and long - term, if the oil price remains high, it may affect Brazil's production and tighten the global sugar supply [18]. - **Outlook**: The market will oscillate. In the short - term, the price range is 5300 - 5500 yuan/ton. In the medium - and long - term, there may be an upward driving force [18]. 3.1.9. Pulp - **Viewpoint**: The market is in a stalemate and maintains an oscillating trend [20]. - **Logic**: The consumption of hardwood pulp is strong, and that of softwood pulp is weak. The demand will decrease seasonally, and the supply pressure is high. However, the cost provides support [21]. - **Outlook**: The market will oscillate. The price is restricted by the supply - demand but supported by costs [21][22]. 3.1.10. Double - Offset Paper - **Viewpoint**: The market is weakly oscillating [22]. - **Logic**: The spot price is weak, and the supply pressure is increasing. The publishing tender in April and May will support the price, but the long - term supply - demand pattern is loose [23]. - **Outlook**: The market will oscillate, and the price will run in the range of 4000 - 4300 yuan/ton [23]. 3.1.11. Logs - **Viewpoint**: The inventory is decreasing, and the market is strongly oscillating [24]. - **Logic**: The port inventory is low, and the supply is affected by geopolitical factors, resulting in high costs and low supply. The demand has some resilience, but there is a risk of high - level oscillation [24]. - **Outlook**: The market will oscillate strongly. The price is supported by the cost but faces hedging pressure [24]. 3.2.品种数据监测 No specific data information is provided in the given content for detailed summary. 3.3.中信期货商品指数 - **综合指数**: The comprehensive index, specialty index (including commodity index, commodity 20 index, and industrial products index), and sector index (agricultural products index) are provided. The commodity 20 index increased by 1.01% to 2829.64, the industrial products index increased by 1.10% to 2584.88, and the agricultural products index increased by 0.04% on March 30, 2026, with a 5 - day decline of 0.42%, a 1 - month increase of 0.87%, and a year - to - date increase of 2.12% [185][187].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - The report analyzes multiple sectors including chemicals, agriculture, energy, metals, and finance, presenting price trends, fundamental analysis, and trading strategies for each sector. It also covers macro - economic news that may impact the markets [4][7][11] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Chemicals and Energy - **Price Changes**: On March 30, 2026, in the chemical sector, plastic rose 1.376%, polypropylene PP rose 1.933%, and methanol rose 2.579%, while PTA fell 0.640%. In the energy sector, crude oil rose 2.632% and fuel oil rose 2.285% [4] - **Analysis of Specific Products**: - **Sugar**: Domestic sugar prices are expected to be range - bound in the short term due to current supply pressure, but international market changes may support far - month contracts [11] - **Corn**: Corn prices are under pressure from increased supply, and long positions need to watch risk. Support is around 2350 - 2360 yuan/ton [11] - **Peanut**: Peanut prices are in high - level oscillation. Pay attention to the performance at the key support of 8000 yuan [11] - **Pig**: The pig market has an oversupply situation, with spot prices falling and the futures market seeking new support [13] - **Egg**: Egg futures are expected to be short - term bullish, but the upside is limited [13] - **Jujube**: The jujube market is in a bottom - oscillation pattern, and intraday range trading is recommended [13] - **Cotton**: Cotton prices can consider long positions after a pull - back, but beware of demand disappointment or macro risks [13] - **Caustic Soda**: The caustic soda market is supported by device maintenance and export, but beware of near - month contract correction risks [13] - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The coking coal and coke market shows a pattern of increasing supply and demand, and the overall trend is expected to be strong [14] - **Double - offset Paper**: The double - offset paper market has a loose supply - demand situation, and the price is weak after breaking through the key level [14] - **Urea**: The urea market is expected to maintain stable prices in the short term, and attention should be paid to policies and macro - impacts [14] 3.2 Metals - **Precious Metals**: Gold and silver prices are oscillating at high levels due to geopolitical tensions and economic data. Pay attention to risks [14] - **Base Metals**: - **Copper and Aluminum**: Copper and aluminum prices are affected by the Middle - East situation and are in a downward adjustment. Wait for prices to stabilize [15] - **Alumina**: The domestic alumina supply is large, but there are concerns about bauxite supply. Adopt a long - on - dips strategy and beware of macro risks [15] - **Steel Products**: Steel prices are expected to oscillate and adjust slightly in the short term due to cost and demand factors [15] - **Ferroalloys**: Ferroalloys are affected by cost increases, with a short - term callback - long strategy recommended and avoid high - level chasing [15][17] - **Lithium Carbonate**: Lithium carbonate prices have broken through resistance, but beware of high - level chasing risks [17] 3.3 Option Finance - **Stock Index and Options**: A - share market shows mixed trends. For investors, trend investors can focus on inter - variety arbitrage, and volatility investors can trade based on price movements. The market is expected to be in a wide - range oscillation, and control positions during the rebound [19][21]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The report suggests an interval trading strategy for offset printing paper. The market supply pressure is expected to increase due to the potential commissioning of 300,000 tons of new production capacity in Jiangxi. Although large paper enterprises may have a strong intention to support prices, the wait - and - see sentiment among industry players is expected to continue. The futures price is expected to fluctuate between 4,000 and 4,400 [53]. 3. Summary by Directory Industry News - The inventory days of double - coated paper on Thursday this week increased by 0.98% compared to last Thursday, and the week - on - week increase expanded by 0.46 percentage points. Paper enterprises' shipments did not improve significantly, and buyers were more wait - and - see, leading to an increase in inventory for some paper enterprises. - The operating load rate of the double - coated paper industry this week was 56.16%, a week - on - week increase of 0.79 percentage points, and the increase rate expanded by 0.52 percentage points. The restart of maintenance production lines in Fujian and the increase in the operation of restarted production lines in Guangdong contributed to the continued recovery of the double - coated paper industry's operation [5]. Market Trends - The 70g high - white average price of double - coated paper on March 27 was 4,718.75 yuan/ton, with no change from the previous day and a week - on - week decrease of 18.75 yuan/ton. - In the spot market, the prices of various paper types in Shandong and Guangdong markets mostly declined. For example, the price of 70g Tianyang in the Shandong market decreased from 4,500 yuan/ton to 4,450 yuan/ton. - In terms of cost - profit, the pre - tax cost increased, the pre - tax and after - tax gross profits decreased, and the futures closing price also declined [8][9]. Supply and Demand Data - **Industry Capacity**: The industry capacity has been continuously increasing, and the current industry is overall in a state of over - supply. In 2024, the domestic double - coated paper industry capacity was about 16.52 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 7%, and the annual output was about 9.478 million tons, with a capacity utilization rate of 57% [14][18]. - **Weekly Production and Operation**: This week, the domestic double - coated paper industry output was 203,000 tons, and the capacity utilization rate was 58.1% [23]. - **Enterprise Weekly Sales and Inventory**: This week, the domestic double - coated paper industry sales volume was 197,000 tons, and the weekly enterprise inventory was 407,000 tons [30]. - **Import and Export**: In February 2026, the domestic double - coated paper import volume was about 12,000 tons, and the export volume was about 76,000 tons [36]. - **Inventory Situation**: In January 2026, the social inventory increased slightly, and the enterprise inventory decreased slightly, with inventory transferring from upstream to downstream [43]. - **Terminal Consumption**: In recent years, the growth rate of retail sales of books, newspapers, and magazines has gradually slowed down [49]. Market Judgment - **Supply**: Domestically, the output of the domestic double - coated paper industry this week was 203,000 tons, and the capacity utilization rate was 58.1%. In terms of imports, the import volume in February 2026 was about 12,000 tons. - **Demand**: Domestically, the sales volume this week was 197,000 tons. In terms of exports, the export volume in February 2026 was about 76,000 tons. - **Viewpoint**: Considering the fundamentals, the new 300,000 - ton production capacity in Jiangxi may be put into operation soon, increasing the expected supply pressure. Although large - scale paper enterprises may have a strong intention to support prices at the beginning of next month, due to the constraints of social demand, the wait - and - see sentiment among industry players is expected to continue. The futures price is expected to remain in an interval - oscillating pattern, mainly fluctuating between 4,000 and 4,400. - **Valuation**: The futures price is at a discount to the spot market quotes of third - party information providers but may be higher than the self - pick - up prices of some traders, and the enterprise production profit is low. - **Strategy**: The main strategy is interval trading [53].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View - The weak pattern of the pulp futures fundamentals continues. The upside space for short - term position reduction is limited, and it is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term [6]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Pulp Futures and Spot Prices - On March 26, 2026, for pulp futures, SP2701 had a price of 5492 yuan/ton, with a daily -环比 of - 1.05% and a weekly -环比 of 0.66%; SP2609 was 5242 yuan/ton, with a daily -环比 of - 1.43% and a weekly -环比 of 0.38%; SP2605 was 5156 yuan/ton, with a daily -环比 of - 1.30% and a weekly -环比 of 1.02% [5]. - For spot prices, the price of coniferous pulp Silver Star was 5200 yuan/ton, with a daily -环比 of 0.00% and a weekly -环比 of 2.97%; coniferous pulp Russian Needle was 5050 yuan/ton, with a daily -环比 of 0.00% and a weekly -环比 of 3.06%; broad - leaf pulp Goldfish was 4600 yuan/ton, with a daily -环比 of 0.00% and a weekly -环比 of 1.10% [5]. Pulp Outer - disk Quotes and Import Costs - The outer - disk quote of Chilean Silver Star was 680 dollars/ton, with a month -环比 of - 4.23%, and its import cost was 5559 yuan/ton, with a month -环比 of - 4.19%. The outer - disk quote of Chilean Star was 620 dollars/ton, with a month -环比 of 3.33%, and its import cost was 5073 yuan/ton, with a month -环比 of 3.30%. The outer - disk quote of Chilean Venus was 620 dollars/ton, with a month -环比 of 0.00%, and its import cost was 5073 yuan/ton, with a month -环比 of 0.00% [5]. Pulp Supply - side Data - In February 2026, the import volume of coniferous pulp was 58.02 tons, a month -环比 decrease of 30.86% compared to January; the import volume of broad - leaf pulp was 147.13 tons, a month -环比 decrease of 2.94% [5]. - The shipment volume of pulp to China in January 2026 was 170 thousand tons, a decrease of 19.80% [5]. - On March 26, 2026, the domestic production of broad - leaf pulp was 26.2 tons, and that of chemimechanical pulp was 25.3 tons [5]. Pulp Inventory - side Data - As of March 26, 2026, the inventory of China's main pulp ports was 239.5 tons, an increase of 9.8 tons from the previous period, a 4.3% increase [5]. - The inventory of futures delivery warehouses was 18.6 tons [5]. Pulp Demand - side Data - On March 26, 2026, the production of double - offset paper was 21.60 tons, copper - plate paper was 8.20 tons, tissue paper was 31.21 tons, and white cardboard was 38.50 tons [5]. - The demand side of pulp has been stable recently. The price of finished paper is stable, and the production has increased this week. The price increase letters issued by paper mills are expected to be difficult to implement [5].

1. Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The domestic sugar price is expected to oscillate strongly in the short - term due to the game between weak current reality and strong long - term expectations, but the high domestic inventory may suppress the upward space [11]. - The corn price is in a high - level oscillation pattern, and market sentiment is affected by external markets and policy rumors. It is recommended to wait and see carefully, paying attention to the spot supply rhythm and policy trends [11]. - The peanut price is expected to maintain a high - level oscillation in the short term due to the contradiction between the support from oil mills and weak consumption [11]. - The live - pig market has an oversupply situation, with the spot price continuing to find the bottom, and the short - position in the futures should be reduced [11][12]. - The egg price is expected to be short - term oscillating strongly, with the near - month contracts rising significantly, but the low inventory of laying hens limits the rebound height [12]. - The jujube market is in a bottom - oscillation pattern, and it is recommended to operate within the range on an intraday basis [13]. - The cotton price is expected to run strongly due to the tight domestic supply - demand pattern and demand support, and it is recommended to lay out long positions on pullbacks [14]. - The caustic soda export has a strengthening expectation, but there is a risk of near - month contract correction due to the high premium of the futures price over the spot price [16]. - The coking coal and coke prices are expected to be slightly pressured in the short term, although there is still support for replenishment [16]. - The double - offset paper futures price is expected to oscillate within a range in the short term, and there is a risk of price decline if demand is lower than expected [16]. - The urea price is expected to remain stable in the short term and the futures price may continue to consolidate at a high level [16]. - The precious metals prices are oscillating at a high level with large fluctuations [18]. - The copper and aluminum prices have followed the market correction, and it is recommended to wait patiently for the prices to stop falling and stabilize [18]. - The alumina supply is still relatively large, but there are concerns about the supply restriction of bauxite in Guinea. It is advisable to take a long - position approach when the price is low [18]. - The rebar and hot - rolled coil prices have a support at the low level, but attention should be paid to the impact of geopolitical news [18]. - The ferroalloy prices are recommended to be treated with a long - position approach on pullbacks, but there is a risk of chasing high [20]. - The lithium carbonate price is in an oscillatory adjustment, and it is recommended to operate within a range [20]. - For options, trend investors can focus on the arbitrage opportunities between varieties, and volatility investors can go long on volatility when the underlying asset price falls and go short when it rises [20][21]. - The stock index is expected to maintain an oscillatory upward trend, but the short - term rebound strength should not be overly expected. It is recommended to control the position and wait for the confirmation of volume indicators [22][23][24]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Chemical Industry | Variety | 2026/3/27 (8:00) | 2026/3/26 (15:00) | Change | Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Coking Coal | 1,216.00 | 1,230.00 | -14.0 | -1.138% | | Coke | 1,740.50 | 1,761.00 | -20.50 | -1.164% | | Natural Rubber | 16,505.00 | 16,460.00 | 45.0 | 0.273% | | No. 20 Rubber | 13,690.00 | 13,635.00 | 55.0 | 0.403% | | Plastic | 8,800.00 | 8,767.00 | 33.0 | 0.376% | | Polypropylene (PP) | 9,208.00 | 9,120.00 | 88.0 | 0.965% | | PTA | 6,748.00 | 6,778.00 | -30.0 | -0.443% | | PVC | 5,613.00 | 5,650.00 | -37.0 | -0.655% | | Asphalt | 4,490.00 | 4,543.00 | -53.0 | -1.167% | | Methanol | 3,229.00 | 3,202.00 | 27.0 | 0.843% | | Ethylene Glycol | 5,109.00 | 5,058.00 | 51.0 | 1.008% | | Styrene | 10,343.00 | 10,046.00 | 297.0 | 2.956% | | Glass | 1,036.00 | 1,036.00 | 0 | 0 | | Crude Oil | 744.60 | 733.10 | 11.50 | - | | Fuel Oil | 4,445.00 | 4,393.00 | 52.0 | 1.184% | | Soda Ash | 1,227.00 | 1,225.00 | 2.0 | 0.163% | | Pulp | 5,170.00 | 5,156.00 | 14.0 | 0.272% | | LPG | 6,550.00 | 6,541.00 | 9.0 | 0.138% | | Caustic Soda | 2,469.00 | 2,509.00 | -40.0 | -1.594% | | PX | 9,738.00 | 9,774.00 | -36.0 | -0.368% | [4] 3.2 Agricultural Products | Variety | 2026/3/27 (8:00) | 2026/3/26 (15:00) | Change | Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Yellow Soybean No. 1 | 4,591.00 | 4,627.00 | -36.0 | -0.778% | | Yellow Soybean No. 2 | 3,739.00 | 3,746.00 | -7.0 | -0.187% | | Soybean Meal | 2,937.00 | 2,952.00 | -15.0 | -0.508% | | Rapeseed Meal | 2,319.00 | 2,344.00 | -25.0 | -1.067% | | Soybean Oil | 8,660.00 | 8,646.00 | 14.0 | 0.162% | | Rapeseed Oil | 9,844.00 | 9,840.00 | 4.0 | 0.041% | | Palm Oil | 9,648.00 | 9,614.00 | 34.0 | 0.354% | | White Sugar | 5,441.00 | 5,463.00 | -22.0 | -0.403% | | Yellow Corn | 2,365.00 | 2,376.00 | -11.0 | -0.463% | | Corn Starch | 2,759.00 | 2,765.00 | -6.0 | -0.217% | | Cotton No. 1 | 15,355.00 | 15,420.00 | -65.0 | -0.422% | | Cotton Yarn | 21,495.00 | 21,640.00 | -145.0 | -0.670% | [4] 3.3 Macro - News - US President Trump will visit China from May 14th to 15th, and the two sides are in communication [7]. - Trump postponed the strike on Iranian energy facilities by 10 days to 8 p.m. on April 6, 2026, Eastern Time. Iran put forward four conditions for a cease - fire [7]. - The US Department of Defense is formulating military options against Iran, and Iran has organized over one million people for ground combat [8]. - Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi discussed the Middle - East situation and the Iranian nuclear issue with Canadian Foreign Minister Anand [8]. - Chinese Commerce Minister Wang Wentao met with Dutch Minister of Foreign Trade and Development Cooperation Scherzma, and they exchanged views on Sino - Dutch semiconductor cooperation [8]. - The State Administration for Market Regulation emphasized strengthening anti - monopoly supervision and law enforcement [9]. - 96 central departments publicly disclosed their 2026 budgets, and the "Three Public Expenses" budget decreased by 7.2% year - on - year [9]. - Domestic airline fuel surcharges will increase on April 5, 2026 [9]. 3.4 Main Variety Morning Meeting Views 3.4.1 Agricultural Products - **Sugar**: The price is oscillating strongly due to the game between short - term supply pressure and long - term supply tightening expectations. The upper pressure is around 5500 yuan, and the lower support is around 5400 yuan [11]. - **Corn**: The price is in a high - level oscillation. It is recommended to wait and see, paying attention to the spot supply rhythm and policy. The lower support is in the 2350 - 2360 yuan/ton range [11]. - **Peanut**: The price is expected to maintain a high - level oscillation in the short term. The lower support is around 8000 yuan, and the upper pressure is the previous high [11]. - **Live - Pig**: The market has an oversupply situation, with the spot price continuing to find the bottom, and the short - position in the futures should be reduced [11][12]. - **Egg**: The price is expected to be short - term oscillating strongly, with the near - month contracts rising significantly, but the low inventory of laying hens limits the rebound height [12]. - **Jujube**: The market is in a bottom - oscillation pattern, and it is recommended to operate within the range on an intraday basis [13]. - **Cotton**: The price is expected to run strongly due to the tight domestic supply - demand pattern and demand support, and it is recommended to lay out long positions on pullbacks [14]. 3.4.2 Energy and Chemical - **Caustic Soda**: The export has a strengthening expectation, but there is a risk of near - month contract correction due to the high premium of the futures price over the spot price [16]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The prices are expected to be slightly pressured in the short term, although there is still support for replenishment [16]. - **Double - Offset Paper**: The futures price is expected to oscillate within a range in the short term, and there is a risk of price decline if demand is lower than expected [16]. - **Urea**: The price is expected to remain stable in the short term and the futures price may continue to consolidate at a high level [16]. 3.4.3 Non - ferrous Metals - **Precious Metals**: The prices are oscillating at a high level with large fluctuations [18]. - **Copper and Aluminum**: The prices have followed the market correction, and it is recommended to wait patiently for the prices to stop falling and stabilize [18]. - **Alumina**: The supply is still relatively large, but there are concerns about the supply restriction of bauxite in Guinea. It is advisable to take a long - position approach when the price is low [18]. - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: The prices have a support at the low level, but attention should be paid to the impact of geopolitical news [18]. - **Ferroalloy**: The prices are recommended to be treated with a long - position approach on pullbacks, but there is a risk of chasing high [20]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The price is in an oscillatory adjustment, and it is recommended to operate within a range [20]. 3.4.4 Options and Finance - **Options**: Trend investors can focus on the arbitrage opportunities between varieties, and volatility investors can go long on volatility when the underlying asset price falls and go short when it rises [20][21]. - **Stock Index**: The index is expected to maintain an oscillatory upward trend, but the short - term rebound strength should not be overly expected. It is recommended to control the position and wait for the confirmation of volume indicators [22][23][24].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not explicitly provide an overall industry investment rating. However, it gives individual outlooks for different agricultural products: - **Oscillating**: Oils and fats, protein meal, corn, natural rubber, 20 - number rubber, sugar, pulp, double - gum paper, logs - **Oscillating weakly**: Live pigs - **Oscillating strongly**: Cotton - **Oscillating strongly in the short - term**: Synthetic rubber 2. Core Viewpoints The report analyzes the market conditions of various agricultural products, including supply, demand, inventory, and price trends. It provides short - term, medium - term, and long - term outlooks for each product and offers corresponding investment strategies based on the analysis [1][5][7][9][10]. 3. Summary by Product Oils and Fats - **Viewpoint**: Oils and fats oscillate and rebound. - **Logic**: Geopolitical risks in the Middle East lead to high - level oscillation of oil prices. The US biodiesel policy and the planting area report from the US Department of Agriculture are to be released. In the domestic market, the shutdown of oil mills reduces soybean oil inventory, while demand is weak. For palm oil, production reduction and export growth in Malaysia boost market sentiment, but high prices and the Middle East conflict may suppress demand. For rapeseed oil, the supply is expected to increase, and the inventory has decreased weekly [5]. - **Outlook**: Oscillation. It is recommended to pay attention to the strategy of buying at phased lows [6]. Protein Meal - **Viewpoint**: The spot market has weak supply and demand, and the double - meal disk oscillates. - **Logic**: Internationally, the expected Chinese policy - based procurement and the upcoming release of the US EPA's biodiesel quota boost the US soybean futures price. The expected increase in the US soybean planting area and high inventory may limit the upward space. Domestically, the soybean meal futures price rises due to the cost - side drive of the US soybean price. The spot market has a game between oil mills and feed mills [7]. - **Outlook**: Oscillation. Rapeseed meal generally follows soybean meal but is weaker [7]. Corn - **Viewpoint**: Corn continues to oscillate. - **Logic**: The temperature rise accelerates the supply of damp grain, and the increased supply of old wheat may put pressure on the market. However, the supply pressure is not significant, and the downstream demand is stable. The inventory of grain - using enterprises has stopped decreasing and increased marginally [8][9]. - **Outlook**: Oscillation. Pay attention to the callback pressure caused by the increase in damp grain supply and the expected release of brown rice. In the medium - term, corn is expected to be bullish [9]. Live Pigs - **Viewpoint**: The supply of live pigs is sufficient, and the price continues to decline. - **Logic**: In the short - term, the supply increases, and the demand is weak. In the medium - term, the high inventory of sows in 2025 leads to a large number of piglet births in 2026, resulting in high pressure on hog slaughter. In the long - term, the sow inventory has decreased since the second half of 2025, but the increase in sow productivity may offset the impact. The current process of capacity reduction is not smooth [1][10]. - **Outlook**: Oscillating weakly. In the first half of the year, it is recommended to focus on the hedging opportunity of short - selling at high prices. It is expected that the pig price will bottom out and recover in the third quarter and rise moderately in the fourth quarter [2][10]. Natural Rubber - **Viewpoint**: The market atmosphere is warm, and the disk continues to rebound. - **Logic**: The non - escalation of geopolitical conflicts and the high - level operation of synthetic rubber drive the rebound of natural rubber. The supply in overseas producing areas may be affected by the Middle East conflict, and the downstream tire orders to the Middle East are affected. Seasonally, there is an adjustment demand [11][12]. - **Outlook**: Oscillation. If there is no further fermentation of events, wait for the opportunity to buy on dips [12]. Synthetic Rubber - **Viewpoint**: The disk breaks through the 18,000 - yuan mark. - **Logic**: The tight supply of butadiene is strengthened. The disruption of the supply of key raw materials such as naphtha due to the Middle East conflict leads to the reduction of butadiene supply. Even if the cost of raw materials is higher than that of downstream products, the price is still likely to rise as long as the geopolitical situation is tense [13]. - **Outlook**: Oscillating strongly in the short - term. If the oil price continues to rise, the disk will remain strong [13][14]. Cotton - **Viewpoint**: The fundamentals are good, and there is strong support below. - **Logic**: The domestic cotton processing and inspection work is completed, the commercial inventory has decreased, and the downstream demand in the peak season is good. In the long - term, the expected reduction of the planting area in Xinjiang in 2026 provides an upward drive, but the specific policy details are to be announced [14]. - **Outlook**: Oscillating strongly. In the long - term, it is recommended to buy on dips [14]. Sugar - **Viewpoint**: The short - term main theme is that the sugar price oscillates with the oil price. - **Logic**: The short - term oil price fluctuation caused by the Middle East conflict leads to the oscillation of the sugar price. In the long - term, if the oil price remains high, it may affect the Brazilian new - season production and tighten the global sugar supply [16][17]. - **Outlook**: Oscillation. It is recommended to buy on dips in the range of 5300 - 5500 yuan/ton. There may be an upward drive in the long - term [17]. Pulp - **Viewpoint**: The pulp price declined yesterday, and the pressure still exists. - **Logic**: The consumption of broad - leaf pulp is strong, while that of coniferous pulp is weak. The demand in the 4 - 6 month period usually decreases seasonally, and the overseas coniferous pulp inventory is high. However, the cost provides support for the price [18]. - **Outlook**: Oscillation. The price is expected to oscillate within the range of 4950 - 5350 yuan/ton [18]. Double - Gum Paper - **Viewpoint**: Weakly oscillating. - **Logic**: The market is in a narrow - range oscillation, and the fundamentals have no obvious changes. The resumption of some maintenance devices increases the industry's operating rate, but the profit of paper mills is poor, and the production increase is limited. In the short - and medium - term, the demand in the peak season and the paper mills' profit - repair demand may support the price, but in the long - term, the loose supply - demand situation limits the price increase [20][21]. - **Outlook**: Oscillation. The price is expected to oscillate in the range of 3800 - 4300 yuan/ton in the first half of 2026 [21]. Logs - **Viewpoint**: Strongly oscillating. - **Logic**: The price of logs is mainly driven by cost and supply contraction. The high oil price increases the shipping cost, and the New Zealand suppliers reduce production and raise prices. The low inventory and strong demand in the downstream lead to a supply - demand mismatch [22]. - **Outlook**: Oscillating strongly. The price is expected to maintain a range - bound operation, with strong support below and obvious hedging pressure above [22][23].