[Table_Main] 证券研究报告 | 策略点评 2025 年 11 月 27 日 策略点评 证券分析师 程强 资格编号：S0120524010005 邮箱：chengqiang＠tebon.com.cn 翟堃 资格编号：s0120523050002 邮箱：zhaikun＠tebon.com.cn 高嘉麒 资格编号：S0120523070003 邮箱：gaojq＠tebon.com.cn 研究助理 相关研究 冲高回落，延续缩量 [Table_Summary] 投资要点： 摘要。2025 年 11 月 27 日周四，A 股市场冲高回落；国债期货市场震荡整理；商 品指数上涨，贵金属领涨，铂上市首日大涨超 6%。 一、市场行情分析 1）股票市场：冲高回落，延续缩量 冲高回落，延续缩量。今日 A 股主要指数呈现冲高回落特征，上证指数全天围绕 3870 点震荡，尾盘收涨 0.29%，报 3875.26 点；深证成指收跌 0.25%，报 12875.19 点；创业板指和科创 50 早盘大幅冲高后持续回落，创业板指收跌 0.44%，报 3031.30 点，盘中一度涨超 2%，科创 50 收跌 0.33%，报 1310. ...

资讯日报：美联储"褐皮书"显示美国消费支出进一步下滑 股票市场概览 港股市场表现 美股市场表现 2025 年 11 月 27 日 资讯日报 海外市场主要股市上日表现 | 指数 | 收盘价 | 日涨跌 | 周涨跌 | 年初至今 消费 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | (%) | (%) | (%) | | 恒生指数 | 25.928 | 1 0.13 | 2.81 | 29.25 | | 恒生科技 | 5.618 | 1 0.11 | 4.13 | 25.74 | | 恒生国企 | 9.162 | 0.04 | 2.72 | 25.69 | | 上证指数 | 3.864 | (0.15) | 0.76 | 15.29 | | 目经225 | 49.559 | 9 1.85 | 1.92 | 24.23 | | 新加坡海峡 | 4.502 | 199 0.36 | 0.73 | 0.00 | | 标普500 | 6.813 | 3 0.69 | 3.17 | 15.83 | | 纳斯达克 | 23,215 | 3 0.82 | 4.23 | 20.22 | | 道琼斯 ...

展望后市，德邦证券指出，未来1—2周，或延续"科技+消费"双线轮动格局。科技板块方面，阿里AI算力加码等事件或将持续催化算力产业链，消费板 块，六部门促消费方案可能推动家电、家居等耐用消费品估值修复。同时需要持续关注市场成交量，若后续量能未能有效放大至2万亿以上，可能制约行 情高度。 东莞证券认为，市场整体仍处于方兴未艾的修复阶段，风险偏好稳步提升的势头未变。特别是从三季报业绩看到了基本面适度改善迹象，未来基本面的改 善或成为推动市场进一步回暖的重要因素。年底A股在高位仍可能出现波动，但趋势仍处于乐观阶段，市场具备进一步向上的演绎空间。紧跟政策指引与 业绩主线，把握结构性机会。 111月27日，A股整体冲高回落，深证成指13000点得而复失，创业板指也止步3100点，科创50、北证50等也微幅飘绿，上证指数、上证50则微幅飘红。上 涨个股略多于下跌个股，成交1.72万亿元。 | 代码 | 名称 | | 最新 | 涨幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 399001 | 深证成指 | | 12875.19 | -0.25% | | 000001 | 上证指数 | . | 3 ...

纸业股继续走高，截至发稿，玖龙纸业(02689)涨5.25%，报6.41港元；理文造纸(02314)涨4.65%，报3.15 港元。 兴业证券发布研报称，造纸行业Q3整体收入和利润均有压力，目前仍处在低位，Q4是传统需求旺季， 各纸种纷纷发布涨价函，预计会部分或全部落地，叠加成本端废纸/纸浆价格均有上行，行业景气度有 望向上，建议关注行业龙头太阳纸业（002078）、玖龙纸业等。 消息面上，山鹰、玖龙、APP、亚太森博等主要企业纷纷发布调价函，计划在11月底至12月初对旗下产 品进行提价。此轮涨价覆盖包装纸和瓦楞纸，包装用纸(如瓦楞纸、牛卡纸)涨幅较为温和，普遍在50元/ 吨左右；而文化用纸(如复印纸、双胶纸)涨幅较大，达到200元/吨。 ...

智通财经APP获悉，纸业股继续走高，截至发稿，玖龙纸业(02689)涨5.25%，报6.41港元；理文造纸 (02314)涨4.65%，报3.15港元。 兴业证券发布研报称，造纸行业Q3整体收入和利润均有压力，目前仍处在低位，Q4是传统需求旺季， 各纸种纷纷发布涨价函，预计会部分或全部落地，叠加成本端废纸/纸浆价格均有上行，行业景气度有 望向上，建议关注行业龙头太阳纸业、玖龙纸业等。 消息面上，山鹰、玖龙、APP、亚太森博等主要企业纷纷发布调价函，计划在11月底至12月初对旗下产 品进行提价。此轮涨价覆盖包装纸和瓦楞纸，包装用纸(如瓦楞纸、牛卡纸)涨幅较为温和，普遍在50元/ 吨左右；而文化用纸(如复印纸、双胶纸)涨幅较大，达到200元/吨。 ...

据新浪财经报道，山鹰、玖龙、APP、亚太森博等主要纸企纷纷发布调价函，计划在11月底至12月初对旗下产品进行提价。此轮涨价覆盖包装纸和瓦楞纸， 包装用纸（如瓦楞纸、牛卡纸）涨幅较为温和，普遍在50元/吨左右；而文化用纸（如复印纸、双胶纸）涨幅较大，达到200元/吨。 企查查数据显示，截至11月26日，国内现存造纸相关企业22.92万家。注册量方面，2024年全年注册1.86万家，截至目前，今年已注册1.57万家。存量方面， 从经营时间来看，造纸相关企业多为老牌企业，成立年限在10年以上的相关企业最多，占比36.88%。从注册资本来看，造纸相关企业多为轻量级企业，注 册资本在100万元以内的相关企业占比过半，达54.54%。 1.今年已注册1.57万家相关企业 企查查数据显示，截至11月26日，国内现存造纸相关企业22.92万家。近十年造纸相关企业年度注册量维持在1.7万家—2.3万家的区间内，其中2023年全年注 册2.22万家相关企业，达注册量峰值。2024年全年注册1.86万家，截至目前，今年已注册1.57万家。 2.造纸相关企业多为老牌企业 企查查数据显示，从经营时间来看，造纸相关企业多为老牌企业，成立 ...

Core Viewpoint - The paper industry stocks in Hong Kong and A-shares have experienced significant price increases, driven by major companies announcing price hikes for their products in late November to early December [1] Group 1: Stock Performance - Hong Kong paper stocks saw notable gains, with Lee & Man Paper rising nearly 4%, Nine Dragons Paper increasing over 2%, and Chenming Paper up over 1% [1] - In the A-share market, Qingshan Paper reached its daily limit, while Jingxing Paper rose over 3% and Shanying International increased over 1% [1] Group 2: Price Increase Announcements - Major companies such as Shanying, Nine Dragons, APP, and Asia Pulp & Paper have issued price adjustment notices, planning to raise prices for their products [1] - The price hikes will affect both packaging paper and corrugated paper, with packaging paper experiencing a moderate increase of around 50 yuan per ton [1] - Cultural paper, including copy paper and double offset paper, will see a more substantial price increase of up to 200 yuan per ton [1]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Iron Ore: Oscillation [2] - Coking Coal and Coke: Weak Oscillation [2] - Rolled Steel and Rebar: Oscillation [2] - Glass: Weak [2] - Soda Ash: Oscillation [2] - CSI 50: Oscillation [3] - SSE 50: Oscillation [3] - CSI 300: Oscillation [3] - CSI 500: Rebound [3] - CSI 1000: Rebound [3] - 2 - year Treasury Bond: Oscillation [3] - 5 - year Treasury Bond: Oscillation [3] - 10 - year Treasury Bond: Upward [3] - Gold: High - level Oscillation [4] - Silver: High - level Oscillation [4] - Logs: Bottom Oscillation [4] - Pulp: Weak Oscillation [6] - Offset Paper: Weak Oscillation [6] - Soybean Oil: Range - bound Operation [6] - Palm Oil: Range - bound Operation [6] - Rapeseed Oil: Range - bound Operation [6] - Soybean Meal: Weak Oscillation [6] - Rapeseed Meal: Weak Oscillation [6] - Soybean No.2: Weak Oscillation [8] - Soybean No.1: Weak Oscillation [8] - Live Pigs: Oscillation with a Slight Uptrend [8] - Rubber: Oscillation [10] - PX: Oscillation [10] - PTA: Oscillation [10] - MEG: Wide - range Oscillation [10] - PR: Wait - and - See [10] - PF: Wait - and - See [10] Core Viewpoints - The iron ore supply - demand surplus pattern is hard to reverse, and the steel mill profit is squeezed again, but the short - term negative feedback probability is low, with the price oscillating strongly at a high level [2] - The coking coal and coke market is affected by supply concerns, and the price is in a weak adjustment state in the short term [2] - The downstream demand for rolled steel and rebar is weak, and the price is in a bottom - oscillating state, depending on production reduction policies and macro policies [2] - The glass demand is weak, and the price is weak, with the need to focus on production line cold repair and policies [2][3] - The stock index futures/options market has short - term adjustments, and the medium - term trend is still optimistic [3] - The gold price is supported in the long term by the Fed's interest - rate cuts, central bank gold purchases, and geopolitical risks, with short - term fluctuations [4] - The log price is expected to oscillate at the bottom due to supply pressure and weak demand [4][6] - The pulp price is expected to oscillate weakly due to cost support weakening and poor demand [6] - The oil price is expected to operate in a range, and the meal price is expected to oscillate weakly, affected by supply, demand, and policies [6][8] - The live pig price is expected to oscillate, with short - term downward pressure on the settlement price and upward support for the slaughter rate [8] - The natural rubber price is expected to oscillate widely due to supply and demand factors [10] - The polyester products' prices are affected by supply, demand, and raw material prices, showing different trends such as oscillation and weak adjustment [10] Summary by Related Catalogs Black Industry - **Iron Ore**: Global iron ore shipments decreased by 238.0 tons to 3278.4 million tons, 47 - port foreign ore arrivals increased by 569.6 million tons to 2939.5 million tons, and the daily average hot metal output decreased by 0.6 tons to 236.28 million tons. The demand core is in the real estate, and the supply - demand surplus pattern is hard to reverse [2] - **Coking Coal and Coke**: Affected by import news and supply concerns, the futures price dropped sharply. The fourth round of price increases by coke enterprises has been implemented, but the profit repair is limited, and the market has different views on the fifth - round increase [2] - **Rolled Steel and Rebar**: The downstream demand is weak, and the price is oscillating at the bottom. The steel price stop - falling depends on production reduction and anti - "involution" policies [2] - **Glass**: The spot price is weak, and the demand is dragged down by the real - estate竣工. The inventory is increasing, and the daily melting volume needs to be reduced to solve the surplus problem [2][3] Financial - **Stock Index Futures/Options**: The previous trading day, the CSI 300 index rose 0.95%, the SSE 50 index rose 0.60%, the CSI 500 index rose 1.25%, and the CSI 1000 index rose 1.31%. Some sectors had capital inflows or outflows, and geopolitical news affected the market [3] - **Treasury Bonds**: The yield of the 10 - year Treasury bond rose 1bp, and the central bank conducted reverse - repurchase operations with a net withdrawal of 1054 billion yuan. The bond market showed a slight rebound [3] Precious Metals - **Gold**: In a high - interest - rate environment and globalization reconstruction, the gold pricing mechanism is changing. The Fed's interest - rate policy and geopolitical risks are short - term factors, and long - term support comes from multiple aspects [4] - **Silver**: Similar to gold, it is affected by the Fed's interest - rate policy, inflation, and geopolitical risks [4] Light Industry - **Logs**: The port daily shipment volume decreased, the import volume changed, the inventory increased, and the spot price was weak. The supply was under pressure, and the demand was hard to increase [4][6] - **Pulp**: The spot price was divided, the cost support weakened, the paper - mill demand was poor, and the price was expected to oscillate weakly [6] Oils and Fats and Oilseeds - **Oils**: The US soybean crushing reached a record high, the palm oil production and inventory in Malaysia were higher than expected, and the domestic oil supply was abundant while the demand was weak. The price was expected to operate in a range [6] - **Meals**: The US soybean production, exports, and ending stocks were adjusted, the global soybean supply was relatively loose, and the domestic meal supply was abundant. The price was expected to oscillate weakly [6][8] Agricultural Products - **Live Pigs**: The average trading weight fluctuated, the settlement price decreased by 2.58%, the demand recovered slightly, and the slaughter rate increased. The price was expected to oscillate with short - term downward pressure [8] Soft Commodities - **Natural Rubber**: The raw material prices in different regions changed, the output in some areas was affected by the weather, the demand was supported by the auto industry, and the inventory was accumulating. The price was expected to oscillate widely [10] Polyester - **PX**: Geopolitical easing led to oil - price decline, and the supply was strong while the demand was boosted by the polyester load rebound, with wide - range oscillation [10] - **PTA**: The cost was affected by oil prices, the short - term supply - demand improved, but the long - term situation was poor, and the price followed the cost [10] - **MEG**: There was long - term inventory pressure, and the short - term price was weak with upward pressure [10] - **PR**: The raw - material support was weak, and the market was expected to adjust weakly [10] - **PF**: The current supply - demand was okay, but the future expectation was negative, and the price was expected to adjust weakly [10]

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究|农业策略⽇报 2025-11-26 资金移仓换月，豆粕盘面区间震荡偏多 油脂：走势分化，棕油偏弱 蛋白粕：资金移仓换月，盘面区间震荡偏多 玉米/淀粉：利多驱动延续，期现共振上行 生猪：出栏充裕，猪价弱势 天然橡胶：产区洪水引发多头情绪，但上涨幅度有限 合成橡胶：原料成交支撑盘面 棉花：下有支撑，上有压力 白糖：糖价延续反弹 纸浆：多空因素未改，纸浆震荡为主 双胶纸：成本支撑下降，双胶纸低位震荡 原木：基本面偏弱，盘面反弹乏力 风险因素：进口，天气，贸易战，宏观。 农业团队 研究员： 刘高超 从业资格号：F3011329 投资咨询号：Z0012689 王聪颖 从业资格号：F0254714 投资咨询号：Z0002180 吴静雯 从业资格号：F3083970 投资咨询号：Z0016293 李艺华 从业资格号： F03086449 投资咨询号： Z0019380 程也 从业资格号： F03087739 投资咨询号： Z0019480 周重廷 从业资格号：F03093821 投资咨询号：Z0020578 刘丽芳 从业资格号：F03110661 投资咨询号：Z ...

LL 500 - K - 国贸期货有限公司 流的衍生品综合服务商 司不少年 国贸期货研究院 投资咨询号:Z0015194 从业资格号:F3042528 农产品研究中心 杨璐琳 纸浆价格数据 | | | 2025年11月24日 | 日环比 | 周环比 | | | 2025年11月24日 | 日环比 | 周环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货价格 | SP2601 | 5220 | -0. 15% | -4. 64% | 现货价格 | 针叶浆银星 | 5400 | -0.92% | -2. 70% | | (元/吨) | SP2512 | 4712 | 0. 17% | -3. 84% | (元/吨) | 针叶浆俄针 | 5170 | -0. 58% | -4. 26% | | | SP2605 | 5278 | -0. 15% | -3.55% | | 阔叶浆金鱼 | 4400 | 0.00% | 0.00% | | | | 本期价格 | 上期价格 | 月环比 | | | 本期价格 | 上期价格 | 月环比 ...