战后追偿机制
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欧洲准备打出最后底牌,启用俄罗斯海外资产,够乌克兰再打5年
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-10-02 11:42
Core Points - Europe is planning a strategic financial initiative to support Ukraine by utilizing frozen Russian state assets, rather than sending soldiers or weapons [1][2] - The initiative involves using €210 billion in Russian reserves held in the Euroclear system, which have been frozen since the onset of the Ukraine conflict in 2022 [4][11] - The European Union and G7 are pushing for a controversial plan to issue "Ukraine Reconstruction Loans" backed by these frozen assets, totaling approximately €140 billion [7][15] Financial Strategy - The plan includes a "post-war repayment mechanism," where any future reparations from Russia would first go towards repaying these loans before any assets are unfrozen [7][9] - The frozen assets generate about €3 billion annually in interest, with 90% previously allocated for military purchases and 10% for energy infrastructure [13] - Ukraine is projected to receive around €28 billion annually over five years, which would cover more than half of its military budget for 2025 [17] Internal EU Disputes - The proposal has sparked intense debate within the EU, particularly regarding its legal legitimacy and potential financial risks [19] - Countries like Belgium, Germany, and France express concerns about the implications of asset seizure on financial stability and the euro's credibility [19] - Conversely, Eastern European nations argue that Russia, as an aggressor, should be held accountable for damages, citing international law [21] Russian Response - In retaliation, Russia has initiated measures to freeze Western investors' assets in Russia, warning of reciprocal actions if its assets are seized [22] - This tit-for-tat could lead to broader global repercussions, with emerging markets like China and India wary of the implications for their own reserves [24] - The ongoing conflict has already impacted European energy supplies, with potential for further disruptions if tensions escalate [26] Conclusion - The EU's plan to utilize Russian assets represents a significant economic gamble aimed at altering the military balance in Ukraine, but it risks triggering larger political and economic instability [28]