户储缺芯
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2026大圆柱产能预计超百GWh,有望填补户储缺芯
高工锂电· 2025-10-19 07:53
Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the structural shortage of small storage battery cells in the context of increasing demand for large storage battery cells, driven by regulatory changes and market dynamics in the energy storage sector [2][3][4]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The release of Document No. 136 at the beginning of the year triggered a chain reaction, leading to a rush to complete projects before the June 1 deadline, which increased demand for large storage battery cells [2][3]. - In the first half of the year, new energy storage tenders reached 126.3 GWh, a year-on-year increase of 100.8%, while the total winning bids amounted to 189.8 GWh, up 181.6% year-on-year [4]. - Major integrators and battery manufacturers have secured significant overseas contracts, further boosting the production of large storage battery cells [5]. Group 2: Production Capacity and Shortages - The focus on large storage battery cells has led to a structural shortage of small storage battery cells, particularly the 100Ah square cells [7]. - The production capacity of large cylindrical battery cells is gradually being released, with expectations of over 15 GWh in shipments for 2025 [9]. - The domestic production capacity of large cylindrical batteries is projected to exceed 100 GWh by 2026, with leading manufacturers locking in capacity for passenger vehicles [9]. Group 3: Regional Market Insights - The global household storage market has entered a stable growth phase, with Europe showing signs of recovery and Australia experiencing explosive growth due to government subsidies [10][11]. - In Australia, a subsidy program has significantly increased the installation of household storage systems, with installations reaching 19,600 units in the first month, a year-on-year increase of 2-3 times [11]. - The Australian market features various competing brands, including Tesla and Sungrow, with differing battery cell configurations [12]. Group 4: Technological Advancements - The large cylindrical battery cells have completed both technical and market validation, positioning them as a viable alternative to address the shortage of small storage battery cells [14]. - The demand for large storage battery cells has led manufacturers to prioritize their production, potentially sacrificing some small storage cell capacity [15]. - Companies with large cylindrical battery production capabilities are expected to be among the first to alleviate the shortage of household storage cells [16].