房地产市场二次探底

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财政数据点评:广义财政收支缺口加大,关注中央财政加码可能
Huafu Securities· 2025-09-17 13:06
Revenue and Budget Analysis - In August, general public budget revenue reached 1.24 trillion, with a year-on-year increase of 0.3%, but the monthly growth rate fell by 0.6 percentage points to 2.0%[3] - Tax revenue decreased by 1.6 percentage points to 3.4%, marking the second-highest decline since the beginning of the year, with significant drops in stamp duty and consumption tax on imported products[3] - The contribution of major taxes like VAT, corporate income tax, and personal income tax showed slight improvements, but their contributions remained limited due to low domestic inflation[3] Expenditure and Fiscal Gap - In August, general public budget expenditure growth fell by 2.2 percentage points to 0.8%, the second-lowest monthly figure of the year[4] - The fiscal gap from January to August expanded by 500.4 billion to 3.11 trillion, indicating increased pressure on government debt financing[4] - Government fund budget revenue turned negative in August, dropping by 14.6 percentage points to -5.7%, with land transfer revenue declining by 12.9 percentage points to -5.8%[5] Government Financing and Policy Implications - The cumulative fiscal deficit from January to August increased by 1.98 trillion, with government debt financing progress reaching 80.2% of the annual plan, significantly higher than previous years[7] - The ongoing economic structure optimization and cooling demand suggest a potential for increased fiscal stimulus and monetary easing to stabilize the real estate market and boost consumption[7] - Risks include the possibility that the extent of fiscal expansion may fall short of expectations[7]