事件 ：9月17日，财政部公布2025年前8月财政收支情况。1-8月，全国一般公共预算收入148198亿元，同比增长 0.3%；全国一般公共预算支出179324亿元，同比增长3.1%。 核心观点：广义财政支出继续降速，财政"工具箱"或有多种手段对冲下行压力 广义财政收入下滑，支出明显回落，前8月预算完成度低于过去五年平均水平。 2025年8月，广义财政收入同比 0.3%，较7月同比下降3.3个百分点；广义财政支出同比6%，较7月同比下降6.1个百分点。前8月广义财政收入预 算完成61.9%，略低于过去五年62.7%的平均水平；广义财政支出预算完成57.3%，略低于过去五年平均58.8%。 广义财政支出继续降速，或主因政府债务融资大规模支持阶段已过。 截至8月底，国债净融资+新增一般债+新 增专项债累计发行8.5万亿（含特别国债），发行进度72%，较2024年同期快近4个百分点。同时，特别国债支持 的注资商业银行、"两重"项目、设备更新等领域已基本下达完毕。这或指向政府债务资金对广义财政支出的大 规模支持已接近尾声。 后续既有财政资金对经济支持力度或趋弱。 当前，新增政府债务发行接近尾声，政府债务对财政支出的大 ...

Core Viewpoint - The broad fiscal expenditure continues to slow down, and the fiscal "toolbox" may have various means to counteract downward pressure on the economy [2][3][55] Group 1: Fiscal Revenue and Expenditure Overview - From January to August 2025, the national general public budget revenue was 148,198 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.3%, while the expenditure was 179,324 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.1% [9][55] - In August 2025, broad fiscal revenue grew by 0.3% year-on-year, a decrease of 3.3 percentage points compared to July, while broad fiscal expenditure increased by 6%, down 6.1 percentage points from July [2][10] - The completion rate of the broad fiscal revenue budget for the first eight months was 61.9%, slightly lower than the five-year average of 62.7%, and the expenditure completion rate was 57.3%, also below the five-year average of 58.8% [2][10][55] Group 2: Government Debt and Fiscal Support - The slowdown in broad fiscal expenditure is likely due to the end of the large-scale support phase from government debt financing. As of the end of August, the net financing of national bonds, new general bonds, and new special bonds totaled 8.5 trillion yuan, with a 72% issuance progress, nearly 4 percentage points faster than the same period in 2024 [2][15][56] - The issuance of special bonds supporting various sectors has largely been completed, indicating that the large-scale support from government debt funds for broad fiscal expenditure is nearing its end [15][56] Group 3: Economic Growth and Future Outlook - The support from fiscal funds for the economy may weaken in the future, as the issuance of new government debt approaches its end, making it difficult for broad fiscal expenditure to maintain high growth rates [3][19] - Factors such as the preemptive demand from "old-for-new" and "equipment updates" have been impacted by promotional activities and a "window period" for national subsidies, leading to a decline in retail growth and investment in equipment purchases [3][19] - Historical experience suggests that fiscal measures may include two types of policies: incremental policies that do not require budget adjustments and new government debt limits that require approval from the National People's Congress [24][56] Group 4: Government Fund Revenue and Expenditure Trends - Government fund revenue has significantly declined, dragging down the growth rate of broad fiscal revenue. In August 2025, government fund revenue fell by 5.7% year-on-year, while general fiscal revenue increased by 2% [2][57] - The decline in government fund expenditure has led to a further decrease in the growth rate of broad fiscal expenditure. In July 2025, broad fiscal expenditure grew by 12.1% year-on-year, down 5.5 percentage points from June [4][41] - The completion rate of government fund expenditure in August 2025 was 6.7%, lower than the five-year average of 7% [50][57]

Revenue and Expenditure Trends - From January to August 2025, the national general public budget revenue was 148,198 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.3%[1] - National general public budget expenditure reached 179,324 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 3.1%[1] - In August 2025, general fiscal revenue grew by 0.3% year-on-year, a decline of 3.3 percentage points compared to July[5] - General fiscal expenditure in August 2025 increased by 6% year-on-year, down 6.1 percentage points from July[5] Budget Completion Rates - The budget completion rate for general fiscal revenue in the first eight months was 61.9%, slightly below the five-year average of 62.7%[5] - General fiscal expenditure budget completion was 57.3%, also below the five-year average of 58.8%[5] Government Debt and Fiscal Support - As of the end of August, net financing of government bonds and new special bonds totaled 8.5 trillion yuan, with an issuance progress of 72%[2] - The large-scale support phase of government debt financing for general fiscal expenditure is nearing its end, indicating a potential decline in fiscal support for the economy[2] - The issuance of new government debt is approaching its limit, which may hinder the maintenance of high growth rates in general fiscal expenditure going forward[11] Fund Revenue and Expenditure - Government fund revenue fell significantly, with a year-on-year decrease of 5.7% in August 2025, contributing to the decline in general fiscal revenue growth[3] - The budget completion rate for government fund revenue in August was 5.3%, lower than the five-year average of 7.1%[18] Economic Growth Implications - The decline in government fund revenue and the nearing end of debt support may put pressure on future economic growth[11] - Retail growth related to "old-for-new" programs has slowed since June, impacting equipment purchase investment growth as well[11]

Group 1: Fiscal Data Overview - In the first eight months of 2025, national general public budget revenue reached 148,198 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.3%[1] - National general public budget expenditure was 179,324 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year growth of 3.1%[1] - The budget completion rate for general fiscal revenue was 61.9%, slightly below the five-year average of 62.7%[2] Group 2: Trends in Fiscal Income and Expenditure - General fiscal income growth has slowed, with a year-on-year increase of only 0.3% in August 2025, down 3.3 percentage points from July[4] - General fiscal expenditure growth also declined, with a year-on-year increase of 6% in August 2025, down 6.1 percentage points from July[4] - Government fund income fell significantly, with a year-on-year decrease of 5.7% in August 2025, contributing to the slowdown in general fiscal income growth[20] Group 3: Government Debt and Support Measures - The large-scale support phase from government debt financing is nearing its end, with net financing of government bonds and new special bonds totaling 8.5 trillion yuan by the end of August 2025[9] - The issuance progress of special bonds was 72%, nearly 4 percentage points faster than the same period in 2024[9] - Future fiscal support for the economy may weaken as the issuance of new government debt approaches its limit[3] Group 4: Economic Implications - The decline in fiscal support and the impact of external factors may lead to downward pressure on economic growth[3] - Retail growth for related products has slowed since June due to promotional activities and a "window period" for national subsidies[3] - The completion rate for general fiscal expenditure was 57.3%, slightly below the five-year average of 58.8%[2]

Revenue and Budget Analysis - In August, general public budget revenue reached 1.24 trillion, with a year-on-year increase of 0.3%, but the monthly growth rate fell by 0.6 percentage points to 2.0%[3] - Tax revenue decreased by 1.6 percentage points to 3.4%, marking the second-highest decline since the beginning of the year, with significant drops in stamp duty and consumption tax on imported products[3] - The contribution of major taxes like VAT, corporate income tax, and personal income tax showed slight improvements, but their contributions remained limited due to low domestic inflation[3] Expenditure and Fiscal Gap - In August, general public budget expenditure growth fell by 2.2 percentage points to 0.8%, the second-lowest monthly figure of the year[4] - The fiscal gap from January to August expanded by 500.4 billion to 3.11 trillion, indicating increased pressure on government debt financing[4] - Government fund budget revenue turned negative in August, dropping by 14.6 percentage points to -5.7%, with land transfer revenue declining by 12.9 percentage points to -5.8%[5] Government Financing and Policy Implications - The cumulative fiscal deficit from January to August increased by 1.98 trillion, with government debt financing progress reaching 80.2% of the annual plan, significantly higher than previous years[7] - The ongoing economic structure optimization and cooling demand suggest a potential for increased fiscal stimulus and monetary easing to stabilize the real estate market and boost consumption[7] - Risks include the possibility that the extent of fiscal expansion may fall short of expectations[7]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the fiscal revenue and expenditure situation in China for the first seven months of 2025, highlighting a slight increase in revenue but a notable decrease in expenditure growth, particularly in government debt support, while spending on people's livelihoods and service sectors is accelerating [2][3][69]. Group 1: Fiscal Revenue and Expenditure Overview - From January to July 2025, the national general public budget revenue reached 135,839 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.1%, while expenditure was 160,737 billion yuan, up 3.4% year-on-year [2][8]. - In July 2025, broad fiscal revenue grew by 3.6% year-on-year, an increase of 0.8 percentage points compared to June, while broad fiscal expenditure rose by 12.1%, a decrease of 5.5 percentage points from June [3][9][70]. - The completion rate of the broad fiscal revenue budget for the first seven months was 56.3%, in line with the average of the past five years, while the expenditure completion rate was 51%, slightly below the average of 51.7% [3][9][70]. Group 2: Changes in Fiscal Support and Spending - The slowdown in broad fiscal expenditure growth may be partly due to the end of large-scale government debt financing support, with a fiscal revenue deficit of 5.6 trillion yuan in July, only increasing by 0.4 trillion yuan from June [3][14][70]. - The National Development and Reform Commission announced that the 1,880 billion yuan investment subsidy for equipment updates supported by long-term special bonds had been fully allocated, indicating a reduction in government debt support for fiscal expenditure [3][14][70]. Group 3: Sector-Specific Spending Trends - Despite the overall decline in broad fiscal expenditure growth, spending related to people's livelihoods and service sectors has accelerated, with health and social security employment expenditures growing by 14.2% and 13.1% respectively, significantly higher than in June [4][20][71]. - Expenditures in cultural tourism, media, and education also saw increases, with growth rates of 7% and 4.6%, respectively, both improving compared to June [4][20][71]. - The structure of fiscal expenditure is expected to become more differentiated, particularly with the implementation of policies such as childcare subsidies and dual interest subsidies [4][26][71].

Revenue Insights - In July, general public budget revenue reached 2.03 trillion, marking a year-on-year increase of 0.1%, the first positive growth since the beginning of the year[3] - Monthly revenue growth rebounded significantly by 3.0 percentage points to a new high of 2.6%[3] - Tax revenue increased by 4.0 percentage points to 5.0%, the highest monthly figure since December of the previous year[3] Tax Contributions - The contribution of stamp duty saw a notable improvement, significantly influenced by favorable capital market performance in July[3] - Non-tax revenue continued to decline, with a year-on-year drop of 12.9%, exacerbating the overall revenue growth pressure[3] - Value-added tax contribution fell by 0.1 percentage points, highlighting ongoing domestic demand weakness and low inflation impact on corporate revenues[3] Fiscal Expenditure and Gaps - Fiscal expenditure in July rose by 2.7 percentage points to 3.0%, with most major expenditure areas showing varying degrees of increase[12] - The budget revenue-expenditure gap narrowed slightly to 2.49 trillion, but remains substantial, necessitating continued government bond financing[12] - Cumulative fiscal deficit from January to July expanded by 1.83 trillion, with government debt financing reaching 67.1% of the annual plan, significantly higher than the previous two years[26] Real Estate and Land Revenue - Government fund budget revenue fell sharply by 11.9% year-on-year to 8.9%, primarily due to a 14.7% drop in land transfer revenue[18] - The contribution of land transfer revenue to government fund budget revenue decreased by 11.1 percentage points to 5.3%[18] - The real estate market remains unstable, with significant imbalances in housing price-to-income ratios in major cities, affecting land market activity[18] Future Outlook - If domestic and external demand continues to decline, there is a pressing need for the central government to adopt a more aggressive fiscal expansion strategy[26] - The potential impact of new tariffs from the U.S. on exports necessitates ongoing monitoring of economic indicators[26] - The overall economic environment suggests that substantial improvements in fiscal revenue are unlikely in the coming months[3]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the fiscal revenue and expenditure situation in China for the first half of 2025, highlighting a notable increase in fiscal spending and the implications for future fiscal policy and economic recovery [2][6][76]. Group 1: Fiscal Revenue and Expenditure Overview - In the first half of 2025, the national general public budget revenue was 115,566 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 0.3%, while expenditure was 141,271 billion yuan, an increase of 3.4% [2][6][76]. - The broad fiscal revenue in June 2025 showed a year-on-year increase of 2.8%, and broad fiscal expenditure increased by 17.6%, with both metrics improving compared to May [7][78]. - The budget completion rate for broad fiscal revenue in the first six months was 47.8%, higher than the five-year average of 47.4%, while the expenditure completion rate was 44.4%, slightly below the average of 45.1% [7][78]. Group 2: Government Debt and Financing - The increase in broad fiscal expenditure is attributed to government debt financing, with a broad fiscal deficit of -5.3 trillion yuan in June, the highest level for the same period historically [12][76]. - As of July 13, 2025, the net financing of government bonds reached approximately 2.9 billion yuan, with an issuance progress of 59.4%, significantly higher than the 51.6% in 2024 [12][76]. Group 3: Special Bonds and Land Revenue - The issuance of new special bonds remains slow, with a total issuance scale of 2.2 trillion yuan and a progress rate of 50.6%, which is lower than the same period in 2022 and 2023 [18][77]. - Land transfer revenue in June increased by 22% year-on-year, indicating a recovery, although the overall real estate sales growth remains sluggish [18][77]. Group 4: Government Fund Revenue and Expenditure - Government fund revenue improved significantly, with a year-on-year increase of 20.8% in June, while general fiscal revenue saw a decline of 0.3% [31][78]. - Government fund expenditure surged by 79.2% year-on-year in June, driven by the recovery in land transfer revenue and accelerated spending from central special bonds [66][78]. Group 5: Future Outlook - The sustainability of high fiscal expenditure growth in the second half of 2025 will depend on the recovery of tax revenue and land transfer income, as well as the potential for continued funding from policy financial tools [24][77].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the fiscal revenue and expenditure situation in China for the first half of 2025, highlighting a notable increase in fiscal spending and the implications for future fiscal policy and economic recovery [2][6][76]. Group 1: Fiscal Revenue and Expenditure Overview - In the first half of 2025, the national general public budget revenue was 115,566 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 0.3%, while the expenditure was 141,271 billion yuan, an increase of 3.4% [2][6][76]. - The broad fiscal revenue in June 2025 showed a year-on-year increase of 2.8%, and the broad fiscal expenditure increased by 17.6%, both significantly higher than the previous month [2][7][78]. - The budget completion rate for broad fiscal revenue in the first six months was 47.8%, above the five-year average of 47.4%, while the expenditure completion rate was 44.4%, slightly below the average of 45.1% [2][7][78]. Group 2: Government Debt and Financing - The increase in broad fiscal expenditure is attributed to government debt financing, with a broad fiscal deficit reaching -5.3 trillion yuan, the highest level for the same period in previous years [12][24][76]. - As of July 13, 2025, the net financing of government bonds was approximately 2.9 billion yuan, with an issuance progress of 59.4%, significantly higher than the 51.6% in the same period of 2024 [12][24][76]. Group 3: Special Bonds and Land Revenue - The issuance of new special bonds remains slow, with a total issuance scale of 2.2 trillion yuan and a progress rate of 50.6%, which is lower than the 94.4% and 60.7% in the same periods of 2022 and 2023, respectively [3][18][77]. - Land transfer revenue in June 2025 increased by 22% year-on-year, indicating a recovery, although the overall real estate sales growth remains sluggish [3][18][77]. Group 4: Government Fund Revenue and Expenditure - Government fund revenue improved significantly, with a year-on-year increase of 20.8% in June 2025, while general fiscal revenue decreased by 0.3% [25][31][78]. - Government fund expenditure surged by 79.2% year-on-year in June 2025, driven by the recovery in land transfer revenue and accelerated spending from central special bonds [48][66][78]. Group 5: Future Outlook - The sustainability of high fiscal expenditure growth in the second half of 2025 will depend on the recovery of tax revenue and land transfer income, as well as the potential for continued funding support from policy financial tools [24][77].

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call primarily discusses the fiscal situation in China for April 2025, focusing on government spending, revenue, and infrastructure investment trends. Core Insights and Arguments - **Fiscal Spending Growth**: In April 2025, fiscal spending growth accelerated, primarily due to government debt financing support. The issuance of central ordinary and special government bonds has increased, with local governments shifting focus towards project investments, especially in infrastructure [3][5][8]. - **Local Government Investment**: Local governments have actively engaged in infrastructure investments through special bonds, with significant increases in government fund budget expenditures corresponding to local infrastructure investments. Social welfare-related expenditures have also risen, indicating increased pressure to maintain employment [5][6]. - **Revenue Improvement**: There was a marginal improvement in fiscal revenue in April 2025, although it remained in negative growth territory overall. Corporate income tax and export-related taxes provided some support, with corporate income tax improvements likely linked to corporate profit growth [6][9]. - **Structural Changes in Public Finance**: Public finance expenditures have shown structural changes, with a slight recovery in transportation spending and a decline in agricultural and forestry-related expenditures. This indicates a more proactive approach by local governments towards infrastructure investments [7][8]. - **Land Sale Revenue**: Land sale revenue growth remained negative in the first quarter of 2025, but micro-level data showed a recovery in land transaction prices across 330 cities. Fiscal confirmation of revenue lagged behind, only showing improvement in April [10]. - **Future Policy Outlook**: The future policy outlook suggests a preference for utilizing existing policies before considering any new measures. The second quarter will see continued acceleration in the implementation of existing policies, with potential new policies dependent on external pressures and upcoming political meetings [4][11][12]. Other Important but Potentially Overlooked Content - **Export Tax Revenue**: The first quarter of 2025 saw historically low export-related tax revenues, primarily due to high export tax rebates. This situation is linked to the "rush to export" phenomenon [9]. - **Monitoring Future Developments**: The upcoming political meetings in July and August will be critical in determining whether additional fiscal measures will be introduced, especially if export growth approaches zero [13].