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大摩:内房股业绩疲软但下半年指引正面 建议继续持有优质国企
Zhi Tong Cai Jing· 2025-09-03 03:45
Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley indicates that Chinese property developers' performance in the first half of the year was as expected, but they maintain a generally positive outlook for the second half and beyond, particularly regarding the recovery of development profit margins and rental growth [1] Industry Summary - Major developers experienced an average core profit decline of 17% year-on-year in the first half, while dividend payout ratios remained stable [1] - Liquidity risks in the industry appear to have been largely mitigated, although differentiation among companies persists; state-owned enterprises continue to perform well with improvements in profit margins and balance sheets [1] - The fourth quarter is expected to see accelerated real estate sales, driven by state-owned enterprises having ample sellable resources in high-tier cities; however, the average sales for the remaining year are still projected to decline by 2% year-on-year [1] - Company management anticipates a decrease in development gross margins by 1-2 percentage points this year, with a potential recovery starting in 2026; destocking remains a primary task for the coming years [1] Company Recommendations - Morgan Stanley continues to recommend focusing on high-quality state-owned enterprises with good prospects, such as China Resources Land (01109) and China Resources Mixc Lifestyle (01209), as well as high-dividend stocks like Jianfa International Group (01908) [1]