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房地产维稳政策
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第12周成交回升,外部不确定促进维稳政策力度
Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the real estate industry [1][4]. Core Insights - The report indicates a recovery in transaction volumes for the week of March 13 to March 19, 2026, with a stable policy environment and increasing external uncertainties, suggesting that policy support will continue throughout the year [2][4]. - The new development model is expected to drive healthy market growth, contributing to a gradual stabilization of the market [4]. Summary by Sections Transaction Data - In the 12th week of 2026, the total new home transaction area in 30 major cities reached 1.76 million square meters, a 14.5% increase from the previous week, but an 8.86% decrease year-on-year compared to the same week in 2025 [4]. - First-tier cities recorded a sales area of 470,000 square meters, down 3.5% week-on-week and down 23% year-on-year [4]. - Second-tier cities saw a sales area of 930,000 square meters, up 33.6% week-on-week and up 3% year-on-year [4]. - Third-tier cities had a sales area of 360,000 square meters, a slight increase of 1.64% week-on-week but a 14.7% decrease year-on-year [4]. Cumulative Transaction Data - From March 1 to March 19, 2026, the cumulative transaction area in 30 cities was 4.01 million square meters, a 56.96% increase from February but an 8.3% decrease year-on-year [4]. - First-tier cities had a cumulative transaction area of 1.16 million square meters, a 68% increase from February but a 17% decrease year-on-year [4]. - Second-tier cities recorded 2.01 million square meters, a 69% increase from February and a slight increase of 0.47% year-on-year [4]. - Third-tier cities had a cumulative area of 840,000 square meters, a 24.5% increase from February but a 14.1% decrease year-on-year [4]. Land Transaction Data - For the week of March 9 to March 15, 2026, land supply was 11.78 million square meters, with land transaction area at 11.09 million square meters, resulting in a supply-to-sales ratio of 1.06 [4]. - The total land transfer amount was 23.1 billion yuan, with a cumulative land supply area of 149.94 million square meters for the year, down 1.1% year-on-year [4]. - The cumulative land transaction area was 152.61 million square meters, down 9.5% year-on-year, while the cumulative land transfer amount was 381.3 billion yuan, down 26.99% year-on-year [4]. Inventory and Market Dynamics - The inventory clearance cycle in 35 cities increased to 27.19 months, up 2.47% from the previous month and down from 32.1% year-on-year [4]. - The available housing area in February 2026 was 31.25 million square meters, a slight decrease of 0.26% month-on-month and 0.88% year-on-year [4].