Core Viewpoint - The real estate industry is experiencing a divergence in performance among different types of companies, with state-owned enterprises showing resilience while private and mixed-ownership firms face significant losses. The industry is expected to enter a bottoming phase after a rapid decline in gross profit margins [1][2]. Performance Analysis - In the first half of 2025, the 50 sample real estate companies reported total revenue of 1,204.9 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 16.1%. State-owned enterprises saw a revenue increase of 4.9%, while private and mixed-ownership firms experienced declines of 32.1% and 26.1%, respectively [1]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders was a loss of 87 billion yuan, representing a 39% increase in losses year-on-year. State-owned enterprises maintained positive profitability, while private firms reported losses of 97.7 billion yuan and mixed-ownership firms lost 9.8 billion yuan [1]. - The gross profit margin stood at 11.68%, down 0.29 percentage points from the full year of 2024, indicating that the industry may have exited the rapid decline phase and is now stabilizing [1]. - The selling and administrative expense ratio was 4.89%, a decrease of 0.62 percentage points compared to 2024, reflecting ongoing cost reduction efforts [1]. Sales and Investment Trends - In the first half of 2025, the total sales amount for the top 100 real estate companies was 1,782 billion yuan, down 11% year-on-year. However, leading improvement-focused firms like China Jinmao and CIFI Holdings showed positive growth [2]. - The number of private enterprises in the top 30 decreased from 21 in 2020 to 7 in the first half of 2025, indicating a consolidation trend [2]. - Real estate companies are adopting a sales-driven investment strategy, focusing on core cities and regions, with land acquisition intensity showing signs of recovery. The land acquisition intensity for 14 typical firms from 2021 to the first half of 2025 averaged between 0.21 and 0.47, with some firms exceeding 0.6 [2]. Asset Management - In the first half of 2025, 16 typical real estate companies reported total assets of 10,187.5 billion yuan, a decrease of 2.9% from the end of 2024. The interest-bearing debt increased by 0.4% to 2,714.6 billion yuan, while the asset-liability ratio decreased by 0.8 percentage points to 71.5% [3]. - Short-term debt remains a concern, with 30.4% of total interest-bearing debt being short-term, down 1.8 percentage points from the end of 2024 [3]. - The average financing cost was 3.63%, a decrease of 30 basis points compared to the full year of 2024, with several firms achieving the lowest financing costs in the industry [3]. - Improvement-focused firms demonstrated higher asset liquidity, with companies like CIFI Holdings and China Jinmao having less than 15% of their total inventory as completed stock [3]. Investment Recommendations - The current real estate market shows a divergence between new and second-hand housing, with quality new projects in core cities performing well. Companies are encouraged to actively reduce old inventory and enhance liquidity through quality land reserves [4]. - In the context of a transitioning housing market, competition among firms will focus on asset quality, product quality, service, and brand influence. Recommendations include leading firms that continue to acquire land in core urban areas, such as Greentown China, CIFI Holdings, and China Overseas Land & Investment [4].