房地产长周期与经济短周期相互影响

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洪灏:房地产长周期与经济短周期相互影响,主导当前中国经济运行格局
Cai Jing Wang· 2025-08-13 04:39
Group 1 - The long cycle of real estate and the short cycle of the Chinese economy are interrelated, influencing the recent operation of the Chinese economy and market [1] - The comparison of housing price trends and household debt between China, Japan, and the United States has been a focus in the economic community, as all three countries have experienced significant real estate bubbles [1] - Japan's government implemented a comprehensive strategy to recover from its economic downturn, with its debt trajectory taking approximately 65 years to return to a low point after reaching a peak [1] Group 2 - China and Japan's debt trajectories are remarkably similar, both experiencing a 20 to 30-year expansion followed by a peak around 2021, after which a downward trend began [2] - The Chinese government's recent debt reduction initiatives represent a postponement of existing debt rather than a true resolution of the debt issue, with a three-year task of 10 trillion yuan for debt reduction [2]