1. "十五"期间（2001-2005）入世红利与"世界工厂"：随着中国加入WTO，城镇化大幕拉开，基建、地产与外贸成为了财富的主轴。 2026：开启"十五五"，为什么旧剧本彻底失效了？ 当"新质生产力"从愿景变为量化指标，当"人口老龄化"从远期风险变为即期约束，当"中央加杠杆"与"货币锚点转向"开始尝试前所未有的突破——投资者发 现，过去盯着GDP增速、猜降准降息的"老套路"，在"十五五"这个复杂的非线性系统面前彻底失灵。 2026年，注定将成为中国经济史上一个极具分水岭意义的年份。 随着外部摩擦的常态化与全球产业链的深度重构，旧有的贸易与增长逻辑正在失效。国内正式步入"十五五"规划的开局之年，这不仅是一个五年周期的更 迭，更是中国经济从"规模红利"彻底转向"系统安全与质效革命"的剧变起点。 历史的镜像：五年一度的"系统升级"与财富重组。回望过去二十五年，每一个五年计划的转折，都伴随着财富逻辑的重构。如果你看不懂政策语言的迭代， 就会在时代的变迁中错失坐标： 今天的焦虑，本质上是"逻辑塌陷"： 他曾多次就重大政策在官媒头版发表社评，其一线解读被视为理解政策的"风向标"。而在资本市场，他更是"实战王者"，连续 ...

哈喽，大家好，今天小睿这篇评论，主要来分析人民币破7背后，美国三年收割计划如何破产，中国又 靠哪三张底牌成功反击。 2025年圣诞节，全球金融市场见证了一个历史性时刻。12月25日，离岸人民币对美元汇率强势突破7.0 整数关口，最高触及6.9985，在岸人民币也同步突破7.01关口，创下2024年9月以来的新高。 距离4月份7.40的低点，仅仅过去了8个月。这种V型反转如果只是简单的市场波动，那就太小看这场持 续三年的金融博弈了。 美联储降息引爆结汇潮 2025年12月，美联储在经历了漫长的加息周期后，终于开启了降息通道，市场预期2026年还将有两次降 息。这一动作直接抽走了支撑强势美元的基石，美元指数应声跌破100大关，跌幅逼近10%。 但真正推动人民币年底上演"逼空"大戏的，是中国外贸企业积压已久的"结汇潮"。在过去三年人民币贬 值的预期下，大量出口企业选择了"藏汇于民"，将赚来的美元留在账上，博取美元的高利息和升值收 益。这形成了一个巨大的"堰塞湖"。 第一张底牌是资本账户的防火墙。中国一直保持着对资本账户的审慎管理。这就像是在金融风暴中修筑 的高墙，使得国际游资无法像在泰国或阿根廷那样随意进出，进行大 ...

热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 撰文：嘉盛集团资深分析师Jerry Chen 临近年末，贵金属尤其是白银持续飙升，上演了史诗级行情。 白银上周五暴涨10%站上79美元，周一高开高走突破80美元大关，全年涨幅一度超过180%，毫无疑问 将创下史上第二高的年度涨幅（1979年上涨369%）。黄金上周收盘突破4500美元，但全年涨幅"仅"为 70%左右。铂金和钯金周五分别上涨8.6%和11.7%。 美联储降息和美元走弱、美国关税政策和全球多地库存短缺、地缘趋势和避险情绪、以及供应缺口等因 素成为贵金属贯穿全年的利好，而年底流动性偏低的环境正好为价格的大幅上涨提供了有利环境。 但由于市场走势愈发极端化，芝商所（CME）上周五宣布将于12月29日收盘后全面上调黄金、白银、 铂金等贵金属期货品种的保证金。上海期货交易所也宣布上调保证金标准和涨跌停板幅度。而在此之 前，两家交易所就已经出台了一系列的风控措施。伦敦金属交易所（LME）则暂时没有类似的通知。 对白银来说，结构性稀缺以及避险资产属性正或许在被市场重新定价，长期走势依然被看好。但短期来 看，现货和期货市场的价差过大面临"均值回归" ...

Group 1: Trade Surplus Overview - In the first 11 months of 2025, China's goods trade surplus reached $1.08 trillion, marking the first time any country has surpassed the $1 trillion mark in trade surplus [2] - The strong export performance is driven by key categories such as electromechanical products, which account for approximately 59% of total exports, and new growth areas like electric vehicles and lithium batteries, which continue to see double-digit growth despite overseas tariff pressures [3][4] Group 2: Export and Import Dynamics - The import demand in 2025 is weak, with nearly zero growth (0.2%), contributing to the maximum trade surplus [4] - Many export enterprises are holding onto foreign currency earnings instead of converting them into RMB, leading to a "funds external circulation" phenomenon [5] - A portion of profits from manufacturing is being used to pay off debts rather than being reinvested domestically, indicating a trend towards deleveraging [5] Group 3: Industry-Specific Insights - The automotive sector is highlighted as a profitable industry, with significant profits from exports that can cover costs associated with tariffs and logistics [5] - The distribution of wealth from the trade surplus is concentrated among leading technology firms and automated factories, contrasting with the declining value of real estate, which affects the perceived wealth of ordinary citizens [7] Group 4: Service Trade Developments - China's service trade has historically shown a significant deficit, but in 2025, the deficit narrowed to approximately $108 billion, a reduction of about 26% year-on-year [12][13] - Knowledge-intensive service trade constitutes about 38% of the total, with rapid growth in exports driven by international travel demand and foreign tourists spending in China [13] Group 5: Future Outlook - The trade surplus reflects the efficiency of the production system and external structures rather than a direct increase in resident income [14] - As trade tensions stabilize and high-tech breakthroughs occur, the surplus is expected to gradually benefit the domestic economy and convert into disposable wealth for the population [14]

1919创始人杨陵江表示，在目前行业低迷的背景下，1919不仅规模增长，且持续盈利，基本面已发生根 本性转变，1919正步入一个规模与质量并重的全新发展阶段，背后原因来自两个战略决策。 第二，1919这几年果断放弃重资产，减少直营店开店，大规模开发加盟店，门店数从1500家增加到3000 家，资产负债率已经从3年前的92%降到现在不到20%。在去杠杆瘦身的过程中，其财务状况、经营状 况更加健康，且公司销售规模仍在持续增长。 本报讯(记者梁傲男)自壹玖壹玖酒类平台科技股份有限公司(以下简称"1919")在2023年初主动从新三板 摘牌后，已经连续三年没有发布财务数据。12月26日记者获悉，1919经过审计的财务报表显示：2023年 净利润5134.73万元，2024年净利润4811.91万元，2025年持续盈利状态但财务报表尚未审计。 第一，1919在2023年初果断放弃大部分名酒经销权，开始了为期三年的去库存，躲过了这一波名酒价格 下跌，躲过了名酒存货跌价，大幅度降低了名酒采购带来的财务成本，目前1919名酒已经实现"0库 存"，门店的名酒采购主要通过1919玖妈妈平台。 据了解，1919连续3年盈利背后是销 ...

Economic Overview - The Chinese economy in 2025 shows a clear trend of strong external demand and export growth, while internal demand remains weak, particularly in real estate and fixed asset investment, leading to continued pressure on consumption [1][3] Internal vs External Demand - The balance between internal and external demand is crucial for determining the economic direction, with final consumption contributing 2.8 percentage points to GDP, capital formation contributing 0.9 percentage points, and net exports contributing 1.5 percentage points [2] Employment and Consumer Sentiment - A significant portion of the population feels pessimistic about employment, with 57.4% of respondents in a survey expressing concerns about job prospects, leading to a low consumer sentiment index of 25.8 [4] - Retail sales growth remains weak, with a year-on-year increase of only 1.3% in November, influenced by high base effects from the previous year and a shift in consumer behavior towards saving rather than spending [4] Real Estate Market Dynamics - The real estate market shows a divergence between first-tier cities, which have seen relatively stable prices, and lower-tier cities, which have experienced significant declines. However, by late 2025, this divergence is expected to narrow [5] - New home and second-hand home prices in major cities have declined, with notable drops in Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen [5] Investment Trends - Fixed asset investment has decreased by 2.6% year-on-year, heavily influenced by a 15.9% drop in real estate investment. Private investment has also declined by 5.3% [13] - Government and state-owned enterprise investments are becoming the primary drivers of new investments, with social financing growing by 8.5% year-on-year [13] Export Performance - Exports are experiencing a structural transformation, with machinery and electronics exports accounting for 60.9% of total exports, growing by 8.8%, while labor-intensive product exports have decreased [11] - Trade with the U.S. has declined by 16.9%, while trade with ASEAN countries has increased by 8.5%, indicating a shift in trade dynamics [12] Sectoral Disparities - New industries supported by national policies are showing stable income and development expectations, but their ability to create jobs is limited due to automation [6] - Traditional sectors, such as new energy vehicles, are facing challenges from price wars, limiting their ability to provide substantial employment opportunities [7] Consumer Behavior - Consumer spending is characterized by a decline in large durable goods, while basic and discretionary spending remains stable but under price pressure [10] - The trend of "emotional consumption" is evident, with increased travel and entertainment participation but lower average spending per outing [10] Government Debt and Real Estate Risks - The real estate sector faces significant risks, including asset-liability risks from falling prices and systemic pressures on local finances due to shrinking land revenue [15] - Government debt is increasing, with a year-on-year growth of 18.8%, while public budget revenues are only growing by 0.8%, indicating ongoing fiscal pressures [16]

全球资产管理巨头阿波罗（Apollo Global Management）正在采取一系列激进的防御性举措，通过囤积 现金、降低杠杆率以及抛售高风险债务资产，为可能到来的市场动荡做准备。 12月22日，据英国《金融时报》报道，阿波罗首席执行官Marc Rowan本月在与投资者的私下会议中明 确表示，他当前的首要任务是打造"尽可能最好的资产负债表"，确立防御姿态，从而在信贷和股市面临 更大挑战、"坏事发生"之时，确保公司处于有利的盈利位置。 据与会人士透露，Rowan警告称，当前资产价格过高，长期利率不太可能大幅暴跌，且地缘政治风险加 剧。他直言不讳地指出："作为一家公司，不仅我们处于降低风险的模式，我们的资产负债表也在降低 风险。" 报道指出，阿波罗从激进投资转向保守防御，专注清理资产负债表并维持"现金为王"的避险模式，削 减AI相关贷款和CLO风险敞口，降低基金杠杆率，增加利率对冲，并警告离岸监管套利可能引发保险 市场系统性风险。 分析指出，阿波罗的这一战略转向正值私募信贷市场显现裂痕之际。作为该行业风向标，这一万亿级市 场正面临基本面恶化与信心动摇的双重冲击。据华尔街见闻文章，近期，另一大私募信贷机构Blu ...

以下文章来源于妙投APP ，作者丁萍 妙投APP . 因此资本市场也出现恐慌情绪，近期全球风险资产表现很低迷。那么，日本即将加息，这次会不会 再次引发2024年7月那样的剧烈波动？ # 01 日元套利逻辑被破坏 在回答这个问题之前，我们先来探讨下为什么日本加息会对资本市场产生很大影响。 虎嗅旗下二级市场投研服务品牌，为您提供精选上市公司价值拆解，热门赛道产业链梳理 出品 | 妙投APP 近期对资本市场影响最大的外围变量之一，是日本将再次加息。 实际上早在2025年下半年，日本加息预期开始出现苗头，不过进入12月以来，这一预期就大幅升 温。市场普遍预计日本央行将在12月18-19日会议上将政策利率从0.50%提高到0.75%，也就是加息 25个基点。 作者 | 丁萍 编辑 | 关雪菁 头图 | 视觉中国 这时候，最先受到冲击的，并不一定是风险最高的资产，而是"杠杆最高、最容易被调整的仓位"， 比方美债和高杠杆利率衍生品 （美债期货等） 。大量日元套利资金本身就配置在美债和利率产品 一句话总结就是， 日元套利空间被压缩，资金被迫去杠杆并平仓这些海外风险资产，因此对全球市 场形成压力。 日元在过去很长一段时间里，其 ...

Cogent Communications Conference Call Summary Company Overview - **Company**: Cogent Communications (NasdaqGS:CCOI) - **Date**: December 09, 2025 Key Points Dividend Reduction - Cogent reduced its dividend by 98% to $0.02 per share due to increased leverage from the Sprint acquisition and negative revenue growth from that business [2][3] - The company had grown its dividend for 52 consecutive quarters prior to this reduction [2] Financial Performance - EBITDA has grown for nine consecutive quarters post-Sprint acquisition, despite a 2.4% average decline in top-line revenue [3][4] - EBITDA margin improved from approximately 1% post-acquisition to 20%, with potential to reach 30% when including T-Mobile subsidy payments [4] - Capital expenditures (CapEx) decreased by $20 million sequentially, stabilizing around $100 million annually [4] Wavelength Revenue Growth - Wavelength revenue, which constitutes about 4% of total revenues, grew 93% year-over-year and 14% sequentially [4][5] - Investors expected a faster growth rate in wavelength revenue [5] Deleveraging Strategies - Cogent plans to improve its leverage profile through EBITDA growth and divesting surplus assets, including 24 identified data centers [6][9] - The company has a total of 186 data centers and aims to monetize excess fiber and IP address space [9][11] - Cogent owns approximately 38 million IPv4 addresses, with a leasing income projected to increase from $12 million in 2022 to over $70 million by the end of 2025 [12] Market Position and Sales Strategy - The company has seen a shift in its sales mix, with 79% of sales being 100 gig wavelengths, compared to the market average of 40% [22] - Cogent's average revenue per user (ARPU) for wavelengths is around $2,000, with potential increases as the mix shifts towards higher capacity waves [25] Legacy Business Performance - The legacy Cogent business accounts for 70% of revenue, with the Netcentric segment growing at about 8% year-over-year [26][27] - The acquired Sprint business is declining at approximately 24% year-over-year, primarily affecting off-net corporate segments [29][30] Investor Misunderstandings - Investors may misunderstand the complexity of accounting related to the Sprint acquisition and the distinction between revenue growth from acquired versus organically growing customer bases [31][32] - The wavelength business is new for Cogent, and growth may not be as rapid as anticipated due to the broader market dynamics [32] Additional Insights - The company has paused its buyback program to avoid signaling that all capital is being used for buybacks instead of dividends [3] - There is a significant surplus of dark fiber and IP addresses that Cogent plans to monetize, with ongoing negotiations for sales and leases [10][12] - The company is exploring wholesale agreements for IP addresses to accelerate revenue generation [14][18] This summary encapsulates the key discussions and insights from the Cogent Communications conference call, highlighting the company's financial strategies, market positioning, and growth opportunities.

Core Viewpoint - Wanda Group has repurchased a Wanda Plaza after selling multiple properties, indicating a strategic shift towards asset management and operational control [1][5]. Group 1: Company Changes - On December 2, 2025, Yantai Zhifu Wanda Plaza Co., Ltd. underwent a change in ownership, with Shanghai Wanda Ruichi Enterprise Management Co., Ltd. becoming the sole controlling shareholder [1][2]. - The previous shareholders, Kunhua (Tianjin) Equity Investment Partnership and Kunyuanchengxing (Xiamen) Investment Management Consulting Co., Ltd., have exited the shareholder structure [1][2]. - The management team has also been adjusted in line with this ownership change [1]. Group 2: Strategic Direction - The repurchase aligns with Wanda Group's long-term strategy of promoting a light asset model, which has been a focus for the company in recent years [5]. - The estimated value of each sold Wanda Plaza was approximately 1.5 billion yuan [2]. Group 3: Operational Scale - As of the end of 2024, Wanda Commercial Management has opened 513 Wanda Plazas across China, with a total commercial operating area of 70.9 million square meters and an annual foot traffic exceeding 5.2 billion visitors [3]. - The Yantai Zhifu Wanda Plaza Co., Ltd. was initially fully controlled by Wanda Commercial Management and focuses on developing large commercial complexes [3].