为了稳投资、防风险，地方政府依法举债规模继续创新高，但发行接近尾声，举债增速逐步回落。 根据财政部及机构数据，今年前三季度全国发行地方政府债券合计约8.54万亿元，同比增长约27%。 目前地方政府合法借钱渠道基本来自发行地方政府债券，为了稳经济，今年更加积极的财政政策靠前发 力，地方政府发债进度明显快于去年。这也体现在今年前三季度地方发债借钱规模创新高，且保持两位 数增速。 今年以来地方借钱规模并不小。 财政部数据显示，今年前8个月地方政府广义财政收入（即地方一般公共预算本级收入和地方政府性基 金预算本级收入之和）约10.75万亿元，而前8个月地方借钱规模约7.7万亿元，占广义财政收入比重约 72%。上述广义财政收入并未包含中央对地方转移支付及举债收入等。 那么，地方举借的8.5万亿元究竟花在哪里了？综合官方以及机构数据分析显示，答案是约六成资金用 于偿还旧债，近四成资金则用于投向重大项目建设。 根据财政部及机构数据，今年前三季度地方政府发行的8.54万亿元政府债券中，地方政府再融资债券发 行约4.19万亿元，同比增长约69%。新增地方政府债券发行约4.35万亿元，同比增长约3%。 所谓地方政府再融资债券，简 ...

本文字数：2113，阅读时长大约4分钟 作者 | 第一财经 陈益刊 为了稳投资、防风险，地方政府依法举债规模继续创新高，但发行接近尾声，举债增速逐步回落。 根据财政部及机构数据，今年前三季度全国发行地方政府债券合计约8.54万亿元，同比增长约 27%。 目前地方政府合法借钱渠道基本来自发行地方政府债券，为了稳经济今年更加积极的财政政策靠前发 力，地方政府发债进度明显快于去年。这也体现在今年前三季度地方发债借钱规模创新高，且保持两 位数增速（下图为地方政府债券月度发行规模图）。 2025.10. 09 上图来自"企业预警通"（下同） 今年以来地方借钱规模并不小。 财政部数据显示，今年前8个月地方政府广义财政收入（即地方一般公共预算本级收入和地方政府性 基金预算本级收入之和）约10.75万亿元，而前8个月地方借钱规模约7.7万亿元，占广义财政收入比 重约72%。上述广义财政收入并未包含中央对地方转移支付及举债收入等。 那么，地方举借的8.5万亿元究竟花在哪里了？综合官方以及机构数据分析显示， 答案是约六成资金 用于偿还旧债，近四成资金则用于投向重大项目建设。 根据财政部及机构数据，今年前三季度地方政府发行的8.5 ...

扫码文末"投小圈" 加入行业交流群 文章来源：中证鹏元评级 作者：吴志武 主要内容 1、地方置换债是将非政府债券形式的政府债务转换成法定债务的一种特殊地方债，类型上包括置换债券、置换再融资债券和置换专项债券三种。近年 来随着化债的需要，地方置换债发行明显增多。今年以来，置换债发行具有以下特点：一是，置换再融资债券发行进度较快；二是，置换新增专项债 发行超预期；三是，地域上，置换债发行向债务规模大、风险高的地区倾斜；四是，置换领域出现扩展。 2、今年特殊再融资债券发行进度较快，主要受以下因素影响：一是，地方政府对化债的需求较大；二是，置换再融资债券的发行技术上较为简易；三 是，早发行有利于尽早满足监管要求。 3、今年特殊新增专项债发行超预期，主要是由于新增专项债限额用于解决政府拖欠账款问题。这有特殊的政策背景，一方面，地方政府手中优质项目 减少，随着去年新增专项债负面清单制的落地，同时，受目前化债政策的引导，为了用好用足新增专项债限额，地方政府在优质项目减少情况下拓宽 了新增专项债资金用途，包括用于化债、清欠地方拖欠账款；另一方面，2025年《政府工作报告》强调新增专项债务限额"重点用于投资建设、土地收 储和收 ...

重视股性，兼顾结构机会——四季度转债策略 证券研究报告 固收专题报告 / 2025.10.06 分析师 孙彬彬 SAC 证书编号：S0160525020001 sunbb@ctsec.com 分析师 隋修平 SAC 证书编号：S0160525020003 suixp@ctsec.com 分析师 李浩时 SAC 证书编号：S0160525080002 lihs@ctsec.com 联系人 郑惠文 zhenghw01@ctsec.com 联系人 柳婧舒 liujs@ctsec.com 相关报告 1. 《利率 | 9 月宏观数据怎么看？》 2025-10-05 2. 《信用 | 地产债再观察》 2025-09- 30 3. 《信用 | 二永交易机会再现，超长配置 价值回归》 2025-09-28 核心观点 请阅读最后一页的重要声明！ | 1 | 四季度转债展望：重视股性，兼顾结构机会 4 | | --- | --- | | 1.1 | 四季度，转债关键看股性 4 | | 1.2 | 关注科技催化及"十五五"规划带来的潜在机遇 5 | | 1.3 | 股性之外，结构上仍有机会，关注条款、凸性、低估、"化债" 5 | ...

Core Viewpoint - Jia Yueting is attempting to resolve his substantial debts through innovative financial maneuvers, including acquiring a listed company to facilitate a cryptocurrency investment strategy aimed at repaying his debts [2][5]. Group 1: Debt Management Strategy - Jia Yueting claims to have settled his $20 billion foreign debt by converting it into shares of his electric vehicle company, Faraday Future (FF), offering creditors a 17.2% stake contingent on FF reaching a market valuation of $16 billion [3][5]. - The current market valuation of FF is approximately $241 million, indicating that creditors would only recover about 1% of their investment if they accepted the debt-to-equity swap [3][6]. Group 2: Acquisition of a Listed Company - Jia Yueting has invested $41 million to acquire a listed company that previously focused on innovative pharmaceuticals, which he plans to repurpose for his cryptocurrency business [6][8]. - His personal investment in this acquisition amounts to $4 million, representing a 7% stake in the company [6]. Group 3: Cryptocurrency Fund and Financial Projections - The strategy involves creating a cryptocurrency investment fund with a target of raising $500 million to $1 billion, from which Jia would earn a management fee of approximately 3% [8]. - If the fund reaches $1 billion, the expected annual management fee income would be $30 million, which, after costs, would yield only $5 million for debt repayment, suggesting it would take approximately 2,800 years to repay his $14 billion domestic debt [8][10]. Group 4: Challenges and Market Viability - The success of Jia's plans hinges on the performance of both FF and the cryptocurrency venture, with skepticism surrounding his ability to attract investment given the lack of financial, technical, and political advantages [10]. - Despite the challenges, Jia Yueting continues to acknowledge his debts and is actively seeking various methods to repay them [10].

Market Overview - Recent market downturn is attributed to profit-taking, with major cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin and Ethereum experiencing significant price fluctuations but holding above key support levels [1] - Bitcoin dropped from $114,000 to $112,173, while Ethereum fell from $4,500 to $4,077, with critical support at $4,000 and $3,950 [1] - Altcoins have seen larger declines, but funds previously exiting altcoins are expected to flow back into major cryptocurrencies [1] Economic Context - The U.S. is engaged in debt reduction strategies, with tariffs imposed by former President Trump aimed at alleviating national debt by extracting payments from other countries [3] - Trump's tariffs have reportedly led to a repatriation of manufacturing jobs to the U.S., which could enhance employment and tax revenues [3] - The U.S. national debt stands at approximately $37 trillion, necessitating effective measures for resolution [3] Federal Reserve Insights - Upcoming speeches from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell and other officials are critical for market sentiment, particularly regarding interest rate expectations [5] - Powell's remarks on economic outlook could influence the likelihood of further interest rate cuts, with significant data releases scheduled for the week [5] - The market is currently stable, with rising gold prices and a bullish trend in U.S. equities, reflecting investor confidence in economic recovery [3][5] Investment Strategy - Investors are advised to selectively invest in promising altcoins rather than diversifying into numerous low-potential options [5] - The current market environment is characterized by a transition from institutional to larger financial entities, necessitating a shift in investment strategies [5]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - The bond market currently has significant differences, and breaking through the current trading range requires the formation of a new consensus, which is expected to gradually take shape in the next month [2][7]. - The economic data in August further weakened, and if the GDP growth rate significantly weakens in Q3 and the pressure continues to increase in Q4, the possibility of the central bank restarting bond purchases or even reducing the reserve - requirement ratio and interest rates cannot be ruled out [2]. - Although the bond market is currently sensitive to negative factors, the probability of the A - share market accelerating its unilateral upward movement in the short term is relatively low, and the impact of redemption fee policies on market sentiment may gradually weaken [2][3]. - The central bank is likely to maintain the stability of cross - quarter funds, and the adjustment of the 14 - day reverse repurchase bidding method is conducive to the decline of cross - quarter funds prices [2][3][47]. - During the period of waiting for market consensus to form, it is recommended to maintain a certain leverage, use 2 - 3 - year medium - and high - grade credit bonds as the bottom position, retain some positions in 10 - year treasury bonds, and further increase positions after the signal is clear, while the operation of ultra - long bonds still needs to observe the trend of the equity market in the short term [3]. Summary According to the Directory 1. Interest rates need the market to reach a new consensus on the central bank's adjustment driven by the weakening fundamentals for further decline - In August, the economic data further weakened. The industrial added - value dropped to a new low of 5.2% for the year, and the 25Q3 GDP growth rate is likely to drop to 5% or lower [2][10]. - On the demand side, the year - on - year growth rate of social retail sales in August dropped to 3.4%. After September, the base increase may further magnify the pressure, and the year - on - year growth rate of fixed - asset investment accelerated its decline, with all three sub - items weakening comprehensively [2][13][15]. - In August, the real - estate - related growth rates also declined across the board. Although the economic entered the peak season in September, the improvement of production activities was not significantly better than the seasonal average, and the export volume may face pressure in Q4 [2][18][19]. - Since Q3, the relationship between the bond market and the fundamentals has weakened. If the GDP growth rate significantly weakens in Q3 and the pressure continues to increase in Q4, the central bank may restart bond purchases or even reduce the reserve - requirement ratio and interest rates, but the market needs time to reach a consensus on this [2][26]. 2. Under the central bank's stable attitude, the bank's liability pressure is limited. The adjustment of the 14 - day reverse repurchase bidding method is conducive to the decline of cross - quarter funds prices - In August, the excess reserve ratio was 1.1%, lower than expected, mainly due to the unexpected significant increase in government deposits, which may be affected by the slowdown of general public budget expenditures and the slow progress of replacement bond use [2][26][29]. - The central bank's tool issuance in recent months has been more inclined to large - scale banks. Small and medium - sized banks have continued to net repay inter - bank certificates of deposit, indicating that their motivation to expand assets through inter - bank business has weakened, and their liability pressure may be relatively lower [2][36]. - Last week, the funds tightened marginally under multiple exogenous disturbances, but on Friday, the funds became looser marginally. The average values of DR001 and DR007 since September are roughly the same as those since Q3, so it cannot be inferred that the central bank's attitude has changed [2][3][40]. - The central bank's adjustment of the 14 - day reverse repurchase operation to fixed - quantity, interest - rate bidding, and multiple - price winning may achieve the effect of interest - rate cuts in essence, showing the intention to support cross - quarter funds and being conducive to the decline of cross - quarter funds prices [47]. 3. Emphasize the leveraged interest - rate - arbitrage strategy in the short term and wait for clearer signals for long - end bonds - The probability of the A - share market accelerating its unilateral upward movement in the short term is relatively low, and the impact of redemption fee policies on market sentiment may gradually weaken [3][49]. - Although the probability of the central bank's bond purchases, reserve - requirement ratio cuts, and interest - rate cuts in the future increases, the timing of market consensus formation is uncertain, and it is difficult to grasp the right - side entry rhythm [3][50]. - The central bank's liquidity easing has the highest certainty. It is recommended to maintain a certain leverage, use 2 - 3 - year medium - and high - grade credit bonds as the bottom position, retain some positions in 10 - year treasury bonds, and further increase positions after the signal is clear, while the operation of ultra - long bonds still needs to observe the trend of the equity market in the short term [3][50][51].

Summary of Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The records primarily discuss the banking industry, focusing on credit management, debt resolution, and the impact of monetary policy changes, particularly in relation to the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions [1][2][3]. Key Points and Arguments Monetary Policy and Market Conditions - The Federal Reserve's recent interest rate cut on September 17 has created space for domestic monetary policy adjustments, with the upcoming September 22 press conference being a critical observation point for the bond market [2][3]. - The bond market is currently experiencing slight upward movement amidst volatility, indicating a phase of repair and observation [2]. Corporate Debt Resolution - Corporate debt resolution is closely tied to banks' social responsibilities, with significant efforts being made to address outstanding debts through special refinancing bonds and targeted loans from state-owned and policy banks [3][4]. - There are challenges in the effectiveness of these debt resolution efforts, with reports of discount payments where debts of 10 million yuan are settled for only 7-8 million yuan [3][4]. - The banks are cautious about new business models and are controlling loan amounts while introducing guarantees to mitigate risks, particularly in high-risk areas [5][6]. Credit Supply and Demand - The overall credit situation is not optimistic, with insufficient public credit reserves and limited effectiveness of personal loans in stimulating domestic demand [3][5]. - Banks are expected to increase their bond investment quotas, but there is a consensus to increase bond allocations during market corrections rather than during periods of rising interest rates [5][25]. Risk Management and Loan Distribution - The maximum credit limit for individual entities is set at 30 million yuan, with a preference for collaboration with local governments or state-owned enterprises to avoid high-risk areas [7][8]. - There is a significant focus on ensuring compliance and safety in loan disbursement, with banks implementing strict monitoring of loan usage to prevent misuse [4][5]. Competition and Market Dynamics - Intense competition among banks is noted, particularly in high-risk regions where loans may flow back into deposits, leading to aggressive marketing strategies to retain clients [6][7]. - The credit allocation is influenced more by individual bank willingness rather than solely by credit gaps, complicating the lending landscape [7][8]. Corporate Banking Strategies - The China Banking Corporation (CBC) is in the process of clarifying its financial structure, including plans to divest its securities and trust subsidiaries, while also discussing early redemption of domestic bonds [9][19]. - The bank's approach to corporate debt management involves a cautious strategy, focusing on risk assessment and ensuring that new loans are only issued after resolving existing hidden debts [12][13]. Future Outlook - The outlook for the second half of the year remains pessimistic, with expectations of limited growth in public credit and a reliance on large projects to stimulate lending [25][28]. - The bank's strategy includes a dual focus on retail and corporate banking, with an emphasis on increasing bond investments while managing risks associated with corporate loans [28][29]. Additional Important Insights - The records highlight the ongoing challenges in managing local government financing platforms and the complexities involved in ensuring compliance and effective debt resolution [21][22]. - The differentiation between special bonds and bank loans in terms of compliance and risk management is emphasized, with banks taking a more active role in monitoring fund flows to prevent misuse [23][24]. - The records also indicate a cautious approach to new lending, with banks prioritizing existing clients and ensuring that any new loans are backed by adequate guarantees [32][34]. This summary encapsulates the critical discussions and insights from the conference call, providing a comprehensive overview of the current state and future outlook of the banking industry in relation to corporate debt resolution and credit management.

Core Viewpoint - The concept of "anti-involution" emphasizes governance against disorderly competition among enterprises, and is also seen as a crucial tool to reverse the ongoing decline in macro prices. Recent expectations of supply constraints have strengthened, but prices related to "anti-involution" have experienced a short-term spike followed by a decline. The future dynamics will depend on the demand side [2][5][9]. Group 1: Debt Management - Historically, debt management has helped to improve the liquidity situation of local governments and urban investment enterprises to achieve "risk prevention." However, this period of debt management often corresponds with weakened investment demand in infrastructure, which can hinder "stabilizing growth." This explains the divergence between government bond issuance and infrastructure investment trends observed this year [5][9]. - The current round of debt management is accompanied by the clearing of local financing platforms, resulting in negative net financing for urban investment bonds and zero growth in interest-bearing liabilities of urban investment enterprises. This further elucidates the divergence between government bond issuance and infrastructure investment [5][9]. Group 2: Shift in Fiscal Spending - Unlike in the past, the philosophy of fiscal spending is gradually shifting from "investment in objects" to "investment in people." Consequently, various types of social spending have accelerated this year, while infrastructure spending has significantly lagged. "Investment in people" is beneficial for long-term economic development, but its effect on short-term total demand expansion is relatively limited or delayed [7][9]. - Future projections indicate that land transfer income may continue to decline significantly, suggesting persistent debt management pressures. It is also anticipated that "early allocation of part of next year's new local government debt limits and proactive use of debt management quotas" will be necessary [9][10].

Group 1 - The concept of "anti-involution" emphasizes governance against disorderly competition among enterprises and is seen as a crucial tool to reverse the ongoing decline in macro prices. Recent expectations of supply constraints have strengthened, but prices related to "anti-involution" have experienced a short-term spike followed by a decline. The future dynamics will depend on the demand side [2][3] - Historically, debt reduction has helped to improve the liquidity situation of local governments and urban investment enterprises to achieve "risk prevention." However, periods of debt reduction often correspond with weakened investment demand in infrastructure, which can hinder "stabilizing growth." This trend explains the divergence between government bond issuance and infrastructure investment this year [4][5] - Unlike in the past, the focus of fiscal spending is gradually shifting from "investment in objects" to "investment in people." Consequently, various types of social spending have accelerated this year, while infrastructure spending has significantly lagged. "Investment in people" is beneficial for long-term economic development, but its effect on short-term total demand expansion is relatively limited or delayed [6][8] Group 2 - Looking ahead, land transfer income is expected to continue to decline significantly, indicating that debt reduction pressures will persist. It is also necessary to "advance the issuance of part of next year's new local government debt limits and utilize debt reduction quotas early." The current pressure to achieve the annual economic growth target seems to be between last year and the year before, with the intensity of counter-cyclical policies likely falling in between [8]