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瑞浦兰钧程丹丹:中国正处于汽车产业规则重构窗口期
Jing Ji Guan Cha Wang· 2025-06-26 02:17
Core Insights - The Chinese automotive industry is leveraging its full-chain technology in the new energy vehicle (NEV) sector to reshape global industrial rules, transitioning from labor-intensive manufacturing to technology and rule output [2][3] - China has maintained its position as the world's largest NEV market for ten consecutive years, with a 68% global market share in NEV sales during the first four months of 2025, selling 4.3 million units [2] - The export of Chinese NEVs reached 850,000 units from January to May 2025, marking a 64.6% year-on-year increase, indicating a significant restructuring of the global automotive industry [2] Market Position - Chinese NEVs dominate several international markets, with market shares of 89% in Indonesia, 85% in Brazil, 66% in Israel, and 54% in Russia, attributed to a robust and mature supply chain [2] - China's lithium battery production capacity exceeds 60% of the global total, while the production capacity of key battery materials surpasses 85% [2] Future Outlook - Developed regions like the EU aim for 50% NEV sales by 2030, but face a 40% shortfall in local battery production capacity; Southeast Asia is projected to reach a 30% penetration rate for electric vehicles by 2025 due to favorable policies [3] - China is positioned to lead in climate governance and assist developing countries in transitioning to green technologies, exemplified by BYD's electric bus solutions in Latin America [3] Strategic Direction - The strategy of Chinese automotive companies has evolved from relying on foreign investment and trade to becoming leaders in technology standards and ecological output, focusing on "technology output + industry output" for global expansion [4] - In markets with high technical barriers, such as North America and Europe, the focus is on technology output, while in regions with existing industrial bases, such as Southeast Asia, the emphasis is on industry input [4] Challenges and Management - Chinese automotive companies face significant challenges in international markets, including carbon tariffs and compliance with local regulations, necessitating the establishment of effective compliance systems [4] - The core management strategy for electric vehicle companies expanding internationally is a "dual-core driving model," balancing core technology control with local resource allocation to address cross-border operational challenges [4]