Group 1: Energy and Industrial Production - The cumulative power generation of coal-fired power plants increased by 3.1% year-on-year as of March 26, with a cumulative increase of 1.3% for the year[3] - The operating rate of national blast furnaces recorded 79.2%, with a year-on-year decrease of 1.8 percentage points[3] - The average daily crude steel production of key enterprises was 2.019 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 5.7%[5] Group 2: Construction and Infrastructure - The construction resumption rate of 10,692 sites nationwide was 62%, a month-on-month increase of 19.5 percentage points, but a year-on-year decrease of 2.62 percentage points[5] - The average cement dispatch rate was 24.4%, a month-on-month increase of 4.9 percentage points, but a year-on-year decrease of 11.8%[6] Group 3: Consumer Market Trends - The average daily transaction volume of commercial housing in 30 major cities decreased by 10.3% year-on-year, an improvement from a 28.0% decline in February[8] - Retail sales of passenger vehicles from March 1 to 22 decreased by 16.0% year-on-year, an improvement from a 25.4% decline in the previous month[10] Group 4: Renewable Energy and Economic Indicators - The photovoltaic manager index (SMI) recorded 137.9 points, a month-on-month increase of 7.1 percentage points[6] - The average daily number of domestic flights was 13,400, with a year-on-year increase of 8.7%[8]

Group 1 - The core point of the article is the announcement of a new leadership appointment at BMW Japan, with Kintaro Ueno joining as President and Representative Director on April 1 [1] - Kintaro Ueno has a long history in the automotive industry, having joined Mercedes-Benz Japan in 1987 and serving as President and CEO since 2012 [1]

小米集团-W（1810.HK）2025 年业绩公告点评 25 年业绩创新高，汽车业务放量开启多元增长新阶段 glmszqdatemark 风险提示：下游需求不及预期，行业竞争加剧风险，存储涨价风险。 2026 年 04 月 01 日 | 推荐 | 维持评级 | | --- | --- | | 当前价格： | 31.76 港元 | | 分析师 | 崔琰 | | --- | --- | | 执业证书： S0590525110023 | | | 邮箱： | cuiyan@glms.com.cn | | 分析师 | 方竞 | | 执业证书： S0590525120003 | | | 邮箱： | fangjing@glms.com.cn | | 研究助理 | 蔡濠宇 | | 执业证书： S0590125110078 | | | 邮箱： | caihaoyu@glms.com.cn | 相对走势 -40% -17% 7% 30% 2025/4 2025/9 2026/3 小米集团-W 恒生指数 相关研究 本公司具备证券投资咨询业务资格，请务必阅读最后一页免责声明 证券研究报告 1 [盈利预测与财务指标 Table_For ...

Market Overview - On April 1, 2026, both stock indices closed lower with a trading volume of 2 trillion, an increase of approximately 70 billion from the previous trading day[1] - The Shanghai Composite Index fell by 6.51% in March, losing the 3900-point mark after initially breaking a high point on January 14[3] - Major sectors such as coal, power equipment, chemicals, and agriculture saw significant declines, while banking, home appliances, and food and beverage sectors experienced slight gains[1] Capital Flow - On March 31, net outflows from the Shanghai Stock Exchange amounted to 19.423 billion, while the Shenzhen Stock Exchange saw net outflows of 17.918 billion[4] - The top three sectors for capital inflow were plastics, rail transit equipment, and large state-owned banks, while the top outflow sectors included semiconductors, batteries, and communication equipment[4] Industry Dynamics - The commercial aerospace sector has seen a notable increase in activity, with the successful launch of the Lijian-2 rocket, which aims to match SpaceX's cost efficiency[2] - The Chinese automotive dealer inventory warning index for March stood at 57.5%, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 2.9 percentage points and a month-on-month increase of 1.3 percentage points[8] Economic Indicators - In February, the China Council for the Promotion of International Trade reported a 72.38% year-on-year increase in the issuance of various certificates, indicating a strong start for foreign trade in 2026[5] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology reported that integrated circuit design revenue reached 63.6 billion, a year-on-year growth of 15.7% in the first two months of 2026[9] Investment Insights - Long-term funds are increasingly entering the market, with 156 companies showing involvement from social security funds and 123 from Qualified Foreign Institutional Investors (QFII)[10] - The total trading volume of ETFs reached 453.854 billion, with stock ETFs accounting for 15.961 billion and bond ETFs for 18.852 billion[12]

小米集团-W（1810.HK）2025 年业绩公告点评 25 年业绩创新高，汽车业务放量开启多元增长新阶段 glmszqdatemark 风险提示：下游需求不及预期，行业竞争加剧风险，存储涨价风险。 [盈利预测与财务指标 Table_Forcast] | 单位/百万人民币 | 2025A | 2026E | 2027E | 2028E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入 | 457,287 | 502,996 | 582,229 | 667,783 | | 增长率（%） | 25.0 | 10.0 | 15.8 | 14.7 | | 归母净利润 | 41,643 | 33,265 | 43,633 | 54,324 | | 增长率（%） | 76.0 | -20.1 | 31.2 | 24.5 | | EPS | 1.61 | 1.28 | 1.68 | 2.09 | | P/E | 17 | 22 | 17 | 13 | | P/B | 2.7 | 2.4 | 2.1 | 1.8 | 资料来源：Wind，国联民生证券研究所预测（注：股价为 2026 年 3 月 ...

Core Insights - The report highlights the ongoing economic adjustments and the impact of geopolitical tensions on various sectors, particularly in energy and consumer goods [3][5][9] - It emphasizes the importance of monitoring inflation and commodity prices, especially in light of recent conflicts affecting oil prices and supply chains [7][8][9] Economic News - The People's Bank of China announced measures to regulate credit market operations and reduce financing costs to promote stable economic growth [3] - The U.S. President indicated a potential end to military actions in Iran within two to three weeks, which could influence global oil prices [3] - The report notes a significant increase in housing transactions in Shenzhen, with a 117% month-on-month rise in March 2026 [3] Company Insights - Haier Smart Home reported a record revenue exceeding 300 billion yuan for 2025, with a net profit of 19.55 billion yuan, and announced a share buyback plan [4] - China Pacific Insurance increased its stake in China Life by acquiring 3.1 million shares, raising its holding to 12.08% [4] - Huawei's 2025 annual report showed a revenue of 880.9 billion yuan and a net profit of 68 billion yuan, with R&D investment reaching 192.3 billion yuan [4] Sector Recommendations - The report recommends several stocks based on their growth potential and market conditions, including Jiangfeng Electronics, Dayun Technology, and Zhongmin Resources, highlighting their expected performance in 2026 [5][6] - The food and beverage sector is noted for its resilience, particularly in the snack and casual dining segments, with companies like Ganyuan Foods expected to benefit from new channels and products [11][12] Automotive Industry - The automotive sector is transitioning towards active suspension systems, with significant growth in air suspension systems expected, projected to reach a market size of 121 billion yuan by 2026 [14][16] - Companies like Baolong Technology and Top Group are identified as key players benefiting from this trend [17] Chemical Industry - Huafeng Chemical reported a revenue of 24.198 billion yuan for 2025, with a net profit of 1.858 billion yuan, facing short-term pressure due to product price declines [18][20] - The company is expanding its production capacity, particularly in polyurethane, to strengthen its market position [21] Metal and Mining Sector - Western Mining's revenue for 2025 was 61.687 billion yuan, with a net profit of 3.643 billion yuan, driven by increased multi-metal reserves and production [24][25] - The company is enhancing its resource potential through acquisitions and exploration, with significant increases in copper and gold reserves reported [25] Agriculture and Livestock - Muyuan Foods achieved a revenue of 144.145 billion yuan in 2025, with a net profit of 15.487 billion yuan, benefiting from a stable increase in pig sales [29][31] - The company is focusing on cost control and expanding its slaughtering business, which has become a new profit growth point [30]

1、 美国总统特朗普表示，即使霍尔木兹海峡仍大体关闭，也愿意结束对伊朗的军事行动。 他认为对伊 朗战争很可能很快结束，其他国家无需美国军事援助即可重新开放霍尔木兹海峡。美国国防部长赫格塞 思表示，美国当前"首要任务"是寻求一项协议，以结束与伊朗的战事。伊朗总统佩泽希齐扬表示，伊朗 愿意结束战争，但前提是其诉求得到满足，尤其是获得不再遭受侵略的保证。 2、伊朗外交部长阿拉格齐表示，当前局势"并非谈判"，而是通过直接渠道或"地区朋友"进行的信息交 换。 伊朗仍收到来自美方代表威特科夫的信息，但这并不意味着谈判已启动，相关交流主要为"警告或 交换观点"。 他指出， 目前伊朗未与任何特定方展开谈判。 阿拉格齐强调，伊朗未对美国提出的15项 提议作出任何回应，也未提出任何提议或条件。 3、 伊朗伊斯兰革命卫队发布公告称，将中东地区与18家美国信息通信技术和人工智能企业有关的公司 机构作为"合法打击目标"，包括英伟达、苹果、特斯拉、谷歌、Meta、微软、思科、惠普、英特尔、 甲骨文、IBM、摩根大通及波音等。 4、 外交部长王毅同巴基斯坦副总理兼外长达尔在北京举行会谈，双方就海湾和中东地区局势交换意见 并提出五点倡议： ...

证券研究报告 | 宏观点评 中东冲突对海外经济影响初现 报告摘要 海外宏观：中东冲突影响初现。中东冲突导致原油等工业品原材料供给受到扰 动，制造业产业链由于预防性补库存需求从而出现了短期的"虚假繁荣"，服 务业则已经开始显现出负面冲击。美国消费者信心和通胀预期仍然稳定，但可 能随着冲突持续而向"滞胀"预期演化。欧洲经济受到的冲击较其它地区相对 更大。 国内宏观：外需强劲，内需回暖。中国经济开年有回暖趋势，消费小幅反弹， 投资开始回稳，出口保持强劲。在出口的强势拉动下，库存周期也出现了上行 势头，经济有复苏动力。但物价和库存周期的回升力度以及能否扩散到更大的 范围需要继续观察。 政策：3 月以来，全球政策环境呈现"地缘风险上升、宽松节奏放缓"的特征： 伊朗相关冲突推升油价、航运与供应链风险溢价，并通过能源价格、金融条件 和风险偏好三条路径向全球经济传导，使海外宏观主线进一步转向"增长偏 弱、通胀受扰、央行更谨慎"，美联储、欧洲央行均因此维持更审慎的宽松立 场。对中国而言，外部冲击一方面抬高输入性成本和政策操作难度，另一方面 也对上游能源资源板块形成一定支撑，但尚不足以改变国内"以稳为主、以内 为本"的政策主线。 ...

市场研究部证券研究报告 2026 年 4 月 1 日 国内市场综述 冲高回落 震荡走弱 周二（3 月 31 日）大盘冲高回落，震荡走弱。截至收 盘，上证综指收于 3891.86 点，下跌 0.8%；深成指收 于 13478.06 点，下跌 1.81%；科创 50 下跌 2.59%；创 业板指下跌 2.7%，万得全 A 成交额共 20059 亿元，较 前一日有所上升。 行业方面，30 个中信一级行业有 27 个下跌，其中煤 炭、电子及基础化工跌幅居前，仅有家电、银行及食 品饮料收涨，概念方面，汽车整车精选、CRO 及高铁 等指数表现活跃。 海外市场综述 美国三大股指全线收涨，英伟达涨超 5% 周二（3 月 31 日），美国三大股指全线收涨，道指涨 2.49%，标普 500 指数涨 2.91%，纳指涨 3.83%。卡特 彼勒涨超 6%，英伟达涨逾 5%，领涨道指。万得美国科 技七巨头指数涨 4.4%，脸书涨超 6%，谷歌涨逾 5%。 纳斯达克中国金龙指数涨 2.8%，文远知行涨超 13%， 小马智行涨逾 10%。 新闻精要 1. 国家统计局：3 月份中国采购经理指数重回扩张区 间 2. 外交部：近日中方有三艘船舶 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Macro and Financial Markets**: For stock index futures, it is advisable to wait and see regarding the US - Iran situation, and aggressive investors can consider buying on dips. For bond futures, distinguish the impact of funds and fundamentals on bonds and maintain a steep strategy [17]. - **Black Metals**: In the short - term, the black metal market will maintain a volatile trend. Hold the short - wide - straddle strategy for steel and iron ore, and consider shorting on rallies [19]. - **Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials**: Copper prices will fluctuate widely in the short - term, and attention should be paid to the progress of the Middle East situation. Zinc and lead are recommended to be observed. Carbonate lithium will fluctuate widely in the short - term. Industrial silicon will continue to fluctuate, and polysilicon will run weakly [26][30][31]. - **Agricultural Products**: Cotton prices will fluctuate at a high level. Sugar prices will be under pressure and fluctuate. Egg prices are temporarily weak before the Tomb - sweeping Festival, and the futures market maintains a bearish view. Apple prices of high - quality goods may be strong. Corn is recommended to sell out - of - the - money call options. Red dates will fluctuate weakly. Pig futures can be shorted on the near - month contracts [34][37][40][41][42][44][45]. - **Energy and Chemicals**: Crude oil supply is at risk, and prices will fluctuate. Fuel oil will follow the oil price and fluctuate at a high level. Polyolefin prices have some support but may correct. Rubber should be cautious about going long unilaterally. Synthetic rubber should be cautious about chasing up or down. Methanol should be treated with a bullish and volatile view in the medium - to - long - term and beware of short - term corrections. Caustic soda should be treated with an intraday wide - range volatile view. Asphalt will follow the oil price. PVC may correct, and caution is needed. The polyester industry chain should take profit on previous long positions. LPG may continue to weaken. Pulp should pay attention to port inventory and price increases. Logs may see price increases, and urea should be treated with a volatile view [47][49][50][51][52][53][55][57][58][60][61][62][63][64]. 3. Summaries by Directory 3.1 Macro Information - Diplomatic talks between China and Pakistan on the Middle East situation put forward five initiatives to promote peace [9]. - The US and Iran express willingness to end the war, but there are still uncertainties [9][10]. - The central bank's monetary policy committee holds a quarterly meeting, emphasizing the use of various tools to strengthen monetary policy regulation [10]. - China's manufacturing, non - manufacturing, and comprehensive PMI output indexes return to the expansion range in March [11]. - Huawei's revenue and profit increase in 2025, with different growth rates in different business segments [12]. - The US and Israel attack an Iranian steel factory, and the Kansas Fed warns about the impact of the Iran conflict on inflation [14]. - The eurozone's CPI rises in March, and the European Central Bank may raise interest rates [15]. 3.2 Macro Finance - **Stock Index Futures**: A - shares decline, and the market is affected by the US - Iran situation. It is advisable to wait and see, and aggressive investors can buy on dips [17]. - **Bond Futures**: The inter - bank funds are loose, and the short - term bonds are strong. The long - term bonds are affected by inflation expectations. The strategy is to distinguish the impact of funds and fundamentals and maintain a steep strategy [18]. 3.3 Black Metals - **Steel and Ore**: Real estate sales are still weak, and infrastructure projects have slow progress. The demand for building materials is weak, and the demand for coils has a certain decline. The supply of steel is expected to increase, and the cost support is weakened. The black metal market will maintain a volatile trend in the short - term [18][19]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The supply of coking coal is sufficient, and the inventory is high. The production of coking enterprises has increased slightly. The price of coking coal and coke may fluctuate in the short - term, and it is recommended to wait and see [21]. - **Ferroalloys**: Manganese silicon may see actual production cuts, but it is still in a surplus situation. It is recommended to short on rallies. Silicon iron is also recommended to short on rallies [22]. - **Soda Ash and Glass**: Soda ash is recommended to wait and see, and glass can be bought on dips for the far - month contracts. The market is affected by geopolitical factors and the cold - repair expectation of glass production lines [23]. 3.4 Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials - **Copper**: The Middle East situation has a moderating trend but is still uncertain. The inventory decline supports the copper price, and it will fluctuate widely in the short - term [26]. - **Zinc**: The inventory of zinc ingots decreases slightly, and the price rebounds weakly. It is recommended to wait and see [26]. - **Lead**: The supply of lead is relatively abundant, and the inventory decline slows down. It is recommended to treat it with a volatile view [27]. - **Carbonate Lithium**: The export ban on lithium mines in Zimbabwe affects the market. The price will fluctuate widely in the short - term [30]. - **Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon**: Industrial silicon will continue to fluctuate, and polysilicon will run weakly. The supply and demand of industrial silicon may improve, and the supply and demand of polysilicon are still in a contradiction [31][32]. 3.5 Agricultural Products - **Cotton**: The price of cotton fluctuates at a high level, affected by energy prices and supply - demand expectations. The global cotton production is expected to decline, and the domestic cotton inventory is in the de - stocking stage [34][35][36]. - **Sugar**: The sugar price is under pressure and fluctuates, affected by supply pressure and import cost. There are different views on the global sugar supply surplus [37][38][39]. - **Eggs**: Egg prices are temporarily weak before the Tomb - sweeping Festival, and the futures market maintains a bearish view due to high inventory [40]. - **Apples**: High - quality apple prices may be strong, supported by low inventory and replenishment demand [41][42]. - **Corn**: It is recommended to sell out - of - the - money call options. The price is affected by policy grain supply and low inventory [42][43]. - **Red Dates**: Red dates are in the consumption off - season, and the price will fluctuate weakly [44]. - **Pigs**: The supply of pigs is strong, and the demand is weak. The near - month futures contracts can be shorted [45]. 3.6 Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: The supply of crude oil is at risk due to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. The prices of international crude oil futures fluctuate [47][48]. - **Fuel Oil**: It will follow the oil price and fluctuate at a high level, and the focus is on the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz [49]. - **Plastic**: Polyolefin prices have some support but may correct, and the future trend depends on the end of the war [50]. - **Rubber**: It is recommended to be cautious about going long unilaterally, and pay attention to the impact of synthetic rubber and raw material supply [51]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: Be cautious about chasing up or down, and pay attention to energy prices and device changes [52]. - **Methanol**: It should be treated with a bullish and volatile view in the medium - to - long - term and beware of short - term corrections. Pay attention to the supply in Iran and port inventory [53][54]. - **Caustic Soda**: It should be treated with an intraday wide - range volatile view, affected by coal prices, supply, and exports [55]. - **Asphalt**: It will follow the oil price, and the demand is in the off - season [57]. - **PVC**: It may correct, and the key is the reduction of ethylene production and the solution of the crude oil supply problem [58][59]. - **Polyester Industry Chain**: Take profit on previous long positions, and pay attention to geopolitical impacts, device maintenance, and demand recovery [60]. - **Liquefied Petroleum Gas**: It may continue to weaken, but the price may be relatively stronger than crude oil. The future depends on the development of the US - Iran situation [61]. - **Paper Pulp**: The port inventory increases, and the import cost decreases. Pay attention to port inventory and price increases [62]. - **Logs**: The price may increase, and pay attention to downstream demand and port arrivals [63]. - **Urea**: It should be treated with a volatile view, and the demand is strong [64][65].