[Table_Page] 宏观经济研究报告 2026 年 4 月 1 日 证券研究报告 [Table_Title] 广发宏观 高频数据下的 3 月经济：数量篇 | [Tabl 分析师： | 郭磊 | 分析师： | 贺骁束 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | e_Author] | SAC 执证号：S0260516070002 | | SAC 执证号：S0260517030003 | | | SFC CE.no: BNY419 | | | | | 021-38003572 | | 021-38003589 | | | guolei@gf.com.cn | | hexiaoshu@gf.com.cn | | | 请注意，贺骁束并非香港证券及期货事务监察委员会的注册持牌人，不可在香港从事受监管活动。 | | | [Table_Summary] 报告摘要： 电厂日耗平稳增长。中电联口径截至 3 月 26 日，纳入统计的发电集团燃煤电厂本月累计发电量同比增长 3.1% （前月同比为 4.6%），本年累计发电量同比增长 1.3%。中电联表示出口退税政策调整后，部分非电行业及工 业用电需求将随着"抢 ...

Group 1 - The core point of the article is the announcement of a new leadership appointment at BMW Japan, with Kintaro Ueno joining as President and Representative Director on April 1 [1] - Kintaro Ueno has a long history in the automotive industry, having joined Mercedes-Benz Japan in 1987 and serving as President and CEO since 2012 [1]

小米集团-W（1810.HK）2025 年业绩公告点评 25 年业绩创新高，汽车业务放量开启多元增长新阶段 glmszqdatemark 风险提示：下游需求不及预期，行业竞争加剧风险，存储涨价风险。 2026 年 04 月 01 日 | 推荐 | 维持评级 | | --- | --- | | 当前价格： | 31.76 港元 | | 分析师 | 崔琰 | | --- | --- | | 执业证书： S0590525110023 | | | 邮箱： | cuiyan@glms.com.cn | | 分析师 | 方竞 | | 执业证书： S0590525120003 | | | 邮箱： | fangjing@glms.com.cn | | 研究助理 | 蔡濠宇 | | 执业证书： S0590125110078 | | | 邮箱： | caihaoyu@glms.com.cn | 相对走势 -40% -17% 7% 30% 2025/4 2025/9 2026/3 小米集团-W 恒生指数 相关研究 本公司具备证券投资咨询业务资格，请务必阅读最后一页免责声明 证券研究报告 1 [盈利预测与财务指标 Table_For ...

Market Overview - On April 1, 2026, both stock indices closed lower with a trading volume of 2 trillion, an increase of approximately 70 billion from the previous trading day[1] - The Shanghai Composite Index fell by 6.51% in March, losing the 3900-point mark after initially breaking a high point on January 14[3] - Major sectors such as coal, power equipment, chemicals, and agriculture saw significant declines, while banking, home appliances, and food and beverage sectors experienced slight gains[1] Capital Flow - On March 31, net outflows from the Shanghai Stock Exchange amounted to 19.423 billion, while the Shenzhen Stock Exchange saw net outflows of 17.918 billion[4] - The top three sectors for capital inflow were plastics, rail transit equipment, and large state-owned banks, while the top outflow sectors included semiconductors, batteries, and communication equipment[4] Industry Dynamics - The commercial aerospace sector has seen a notable increase in activity, with the successful launch of the Lijian-2 rocket, which aims to match SpaceX's cost efficiency[2] - The Chinese automotive dealer inventory warning index for March stood at 57.5%, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 2.9 percentage points and a month-on-month increase of 1.3 percentage points[8] Economic Indicators - In February, the China Council for the Promotion of International Trade reported a 72.38% year-on-year increase in the issuance of various certificates, indicating a strong start for foreign trade in 2026[5] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology reported that integrated circuit design revenue reached 63.6 billion, a year-on-year growth of 15.7% in the first two months of 2026[9] Investment Insights - Long-term funds are increasingly entering the market, with 156 companies showing involvement from social security funds and 123 from Qualified Foreign Institutional Investors (QFII)[10] - The total trading volume of ETFs reached 453.854 billion, with stock ETFs accounting for 15.961 billion and bond ETFs for 18.852 billion[12]

小米集团-W（1810.HK）2025 年业绩公告点评 25 年业绩创新高，汽车业务放量开启多元增长新阶段 glmszqdatemark 风险提示：下游需求不及预期，行业竞争加剧风险，存储涨价风险。 [盈利预测与财务指标 Table_Forcast] | 单位/百万人民币 | 2025A | 2026E | 2027E | 2028E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入 | 457,287 | 502,996 | 582,229 | 667,783 | | 增长率（%） | 25.0 | 10.0 | 15.8 | 14.7 | | 归母净利润 | 41,643 | 33,265 | 43,633 | 54,324 | | 增长率（%） | 76.0 | -20.1 | 31.2 | 24.5 | | EPS | 1.61 | 1.28 | 1.68 | 2.09 | | P/E | 17 | 22 | 17 | 13 | | P/B | 2.7 | 2.4 | 2.1 | 1.8 | 资料来源：Wind，国联民生证券研究所预测（注：股价为 2026 年 3 月 ...

Core Insights - The report highlights the ongoing economic adjustments and the impact of geopolitical tensions on various sectors, particularly in energy and consumer goods [3][5][9] - It emphasizes the importance of monitoring inflation and commodity prices, especially in light of recent conflicts affecting oil prices and supply chains [7][8][9] Economic News - The People's Bank of China announced measures to regulate credit market operations and reduce financing costs to promote stable economic growth [3] - The U.S. President indicated a potential end to military actions in Iran within two to three weeks, which could influence global oil prices [3] - The report notes a significant increase in housing transactions in Shenzhen, with a 117% month-on-month rise in March 2026 [3] Company Insights - Haier Smart Home reported a record revenue exceeding 300 billion yuan for 2025, with a net profit of 19.55 billion yuan, and announced a share buyback plan [4] - China Pacific Insurance increased its stake in China Life by acquiring 3.1 million shares, raising its holding to 12.08% [4] - Huawei's 2025 annual report showed a revenue of 880.9 billion yuan and a net profit of 68 billion yuan, with R&D investment reaching 192.3 billion yuan [4] Sector Recommendations - The report recommends several stocks based on their growth potential and market conditions, including Jiangfeng Electronics, Dayun Technology, and Zhongmin Resources, highlighting their expected performance in 2026 [5][6] - The food and beverage sector is noted for its resilience, particularly in the snack and casual dining segments, with companies like Ganyuan Foods expected to benefit from new channels and products [11][12] Automotive Industry - The automotive sector is transitioning towards active suspension systems, with significant growth in air suspension systems expected, projected to reach a market size of 121 billion yuan by 2026 [14][16] - Companies like Baolong Technology and Top Group are identified as key players benefiting from this trend [17] Chemical Industry - Huafeng Chemical reported a revenue of 24.198 billion yuan for 2025, with a net profit of 1.858 billion yuan, facing short-term pressure due to product price declines [18][20] - The company is expanding its production capacity, particularly in polyurethane, to strengthen its market position [21] Metal and Mining Sector - Western Mining's revenue for 2025 was 61.687 billion yuan, with a net profit of 3.643 billion yuan, driven by increased multi-metal reserves and production [24][25] - The company is enhancing its resource potential through acquisitions and exploration, with significant increases in copper and gold reserves reported [25] Agriculture and Livestock - Muyuan Foods achieved a revenue of 144.145 billion yuan in 2025, with a net profit of 15.487 billion yuan, benefiting from a stable increase in pig sales [29][31] - The company is focusing on cost control and expanding its slaughtering business, which has become a new profit growth point [30]

1、 美国总统特朗普表示，即使霍尔木兹海峡仍大体关闭，也愿意结束对伊朗的军事行动。 他认为对伊 朗战争很可能很快结束，其他国家无需美国军事援助即可重新开放霍尔木兹海峡。美国国防部长赫格塞 思表示，美国当前"首要任务"是寻求一项协议，以结束与伊朗的战事。伊朗总统佩泽希齐扬表示，伊朗 愿意结束战争，但前提是其诉求得到满足，尤其是获得不再遭受侵略的保证。 2、伊朗外交部长阿拉格齐表示，当前局势"并非谈判"，而是通过直接渠道或"地区朋友"进行的信息交 换。 伊朗仍收到来自美方代表威特科夫的信息，但这并不意味着谈判已启动，相关交流主要为"警告或 交换观点"。 他指出， 目前伊朗未与任何特定方展开谈判。 阿拉格齐强调，伊朗未对美国提出的15项 提议作出任何回应，也未提出任何提议或条件。 3、 伊朗伊斯兰革命卫队发布公告称，将中东地区与18家美国信息通信技术和人工智能企业有关的公司 机构作为"合法打击目标"，包括英伟达、苹果、特斯拉、谷歌、Meta、微软、思科、惠普、英特尔、 甲骨文、IBM、摩根大通及波音等。 4、 外交部长王毅同巴基斯坦副总理兼外长达尔在北京举行会谈，双方就海湾和中东地区局势交换意见 并提出五点倡议： ...

证券研究报告 | 宏观点评 中东冲突对海外经济影响初现 报告摘要 海外宏观：中东冲突影响初现。中东冲突导致原油等工业品原材料供给受到扰 动，制造业产业链由于预防性补库存需求从而出现了短期的"虚假繁荣"，服 务业则已经开始显现出负面冲击。美国消费者信心和通胀预期仍然稳定，但可 能随着冲突持续而向"滞胀"预期演化。欧洲经济受到的冲击较其它地区相对 更大。 国内宏观：外需强劲，内需回暖。中国经济开年有回暖趋势，消费小幅反弹， 投资开始回稳，出口保持强劲。在出口的强势拉动下，库存周期也出现了上行 势头，经济有复苏动力。但物价和库存周期的回升力度以及能否扩散到更大的 范围需要继续观察。 政策：3 月以来，全球政策环境呈现"地缘风险上升、宽松节奏放缓"的特征： 伊朗相关冲突推升油价、航运与供应链风险溢价，并通过能源价格、金融条件 和风险偏好三条路径向全球经济传导，使海外宏观主线进一步转向"增长偏 弱、通胀受扰、央行更谨慎"，美联储、欧洲央行均因此维持更审慎的宽松立 场。对中国而言，外部冲击一方面抬高输入性成本和政策操作难度，另一方面 也对上游能源资源板块形成一定支撑，但尚不足以改变国内"以稳为主、以内 为本"的政策主线。 ...

市场研究部证券研究报告 2026 年 4 月 1 日 国内市场综述 冲高回落 震荡走弱 周二（3 月 31 日）大盘冲高回落，震荡走弱。截至收 盘，上证综指收于 3891.86 点，下跌 0.8%；深成指收 于 13478.06 点，下跌 1.81%；科创 50 下跌 2.59%；创 业板指下跌 2.7%，万得全 A 成交额共 20059 亿元，较 前一日有所上升。 行业方面，30 个中信一级行业有 27 个下跌，其中煤 炭、电子及基础化工跌幅居前，仅有家电、银行及食 品饮料收涨，概念方面，汽车整车精选、CRO 及高铁 等指数表现活跃。 海外市场综述 美国三大股指全线收涨，英伟达涨超 5% 周二（3 月 31 日），美国三大股指全线收涨，道指涨 2.49%，标普 500 指数涨 2.91%，纳指涨 3.83%。卡特 彼勒涨超 6%，英伟达涨逾 5%，领涨道指。万得美国科 技七巨头指数涨 4.4%，脸书涨超 6%，谷歌涨逾 5%。 纳斯达克中国金龙指数涨 2.8%，文远知行涨超 13%， 小马智行涨逾 10%。 新闻精要 1. 国家统计局：3 月份中国采购经理指数重回扩张区 间 2. 外交部：近日中方有三艘船舶 ...

交易咨询资格号： 证监许可[2012]112 晨会纪要 2026 年 4 月 1 日 联系人：王竣冬 期货从业资格：F3024685 交易咨询从业证书号：Z0013759 研究咨询电话： 0531-68808794 客服电话： 400-618-6767 公司网址： www.ztqh.com [Table_QuotePic] 中泰微投研小程序 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明部分 [Table_Finance] [Table_Report] 中泰期货公众号 | 2020/ 4/ 1 | | 卒」卒 中 中 小 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 趋势空头 | 農荡偏空 | 農あ | 農荡偏多 | 趋势多头 | | | 多晶硅 | 工业硅 | 稼校 | | | | 生猪 | 锌 | 20号胶 | | | | 硅铁 | 铝 | 车费 | | | | 红枣 | 棉纱 | 中证500股指期货 | | | | 锰硅 | 燃油 | 沪深300股指期货 | | | | 铁矿石 | 棉花 | 中证1000指数期货 | | | | 焦炭 | 沥青 | 上证50股指期货 | | | | 焦煤 ...