Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve is experiencing increasing internal divisions regarding interest rate decisions, which may lead to a stalemate in the upcoming meeting on December 9-10, particularly after recent hawkish comments amid persistent inflation above target levels [1][2]. Group 1: Federal Reserve's Internal Dynamics - Recent comments from Federal Reserve officials have shifted towards a more hawkish stance, reducing hopes for further easing of policies in December [1]. - The September employment report showed mixed results, with job growth exceeding expectations but an increase in the unemployment rate to a four-year high, contributing to the Fed's internal divisions [1]. - New York Fed President Williams suggested there is still room for further rate cuts to bring the benchmark rate closer to neutral, which increased the likelihood of a December rate cut from under 40% to over 70% [1][2]. Group 2: Voting Dynamics and Potential Outcomes - The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) consists of 12 voting members, requiring a simple majority (at least 7 votes) to pass decisions, but current sentiments indicate only four votes in favor of a rate cut and six against [2]. - If a tie occurs, it is unclear how the Fed would proceed, as there are no established rules for handling a tie, which could lead to confusion regarding the decision-making process [4][5]. - Historical precedents show that the Fed has never faced a voting tie, and any potential tie could lead to maintaining the current interest rate until a subsequent meeting [5][6].