Group 1 - The domestic futures market for non-ferrous metals experienced a collective decline, with the main copper futures contract hitting the limit down at 98,580.00 yuan/ton, a drop of 9.01% [1] - Geopolitical tensions between the U.S. and Iran have increased demand for safe-haven assets, leading to a surge in gold and silver prices, while the hawkish stance of the newly appointed Federal Reserve Chairman has caused significant declines in precious and non-ferrous metals [2] - Concerns over supply disruptions from South American mines have intensified, while domestic copper production remains high due to the availability of scrap copper as a smelting raw material [2] Group 2 - Domestic copper inventories as of February 2 were reported at 340,800 tons, showing a decrease of 600 tons from January 26 but an increase of 5,000 tons from January 29 [2] - The overall smelting output continues to grow despite a slight month-on-month decline in profits, indicating a potential adjustment phase for copper prices in the short term [3] - Key factors to monitor include changes in the U.S. dollar, copper smelting output, and downstream demand [3]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's decision to maintain the federal funds rate target range at 3.5% to 3.75% reflects a pause after three consecutive rate cuts, aligning with market expectations [2] Group 1: Federal Reserve Decision - The decision received majority support but revealed significant internal divisions, with two board members voting against it, advocating for a 25 basis point cut [2] - Christopher Waller, a potential candidate for the next Fed chair, was among those advocating for a rate cut, which has increased market speculation regarding his nomination [2] - The Fed's choice to hold rates steady is supported by a balanced economic outlook, with stable economic activity and signs of labor market resilience [2] Group 2: Economic Conditions - The U.S. economy is showing steady expansion, with unemployment stabilizing and inflation trends continuing to decline, although still above long-term targets [2] - Structural inflation pressures have not fully dissipated, prompting the Fed to adopt a cautious wait-and-see approach to assess the effects of previous rate cuts [2] Group 3: Policy Independence - The Fed's commitment to maintaining policy independence is a focal point, especially amid external pressures, with Chair Powell emphasizing the need for successors to remain politically detached [2] - This commitment is seen as a factor raising the threshold for future rate cuts, aiming to prevent short-term demands from compromising long-term economic stability [2] Group 4: Future Outlook - Market consensus indicates that the timing of future rate cuts has been pushed back, with many institutions predicting no further cuts during Powell's remaining term [3] - The uncertainty surrounding the next Fed chair candidate is a significant variable affecting market expectations, with Rick Riedel currently leading the candidate list [3] - The differing policy inclinations of potential candidates could influence market perceptions of the policy cycle moving forward [3]

Group 1 - The initial jobless claims for the week ending January 24 were reported at 209,000, slightly above the market expectation of 205,000 but lower than the revised previous value of 210,000 [1] - The continuing jobless claims stood at 1.827 million, significantly below the market expectation of 1.86 million and the revised previous value of 1.865 million [1] - The four-week moving average of initial jobless claims was 206,250, revised up from 201,500 to 204,000, indicating a stable labor market within the range of 200,000 to 210,000 [1] Group 2 - The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) decided to maintain the benchmark interest rate, with Chairman Powell noting signs of stabilization in the unemployment rate and a lack of significant changes in hiring activity, job vacancies, and wage growth [1] - The market is closely watching the non-farm payroll report scheduled for release on February 6, with expectations of a slight increase in new non-farm jobs from 50,000 in December to 70,000 in January, while the unemployment rate is expected to remain at 4.4% [1] - There is uncertainty regarding the timely release of the non-farm employment report due to potential government shutdowns if a new funding bill is not passed by January 31 [2]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve has decided to maintain the federal funds rate target range at 3.5% to 3.75%, marking a pause in its easing policy after three consecutive "preemptive" rate cuts from September to December 2025, reflecting a cautious yet optimistic economic outlook [1] Group 1: Monetary Policy Decisions - The decision was passed with 10 votes in favor and 2 against, with one less dissenting vote compared to the previous meeting [1] - The language in the meeting statement was upgraded from describing economic expansion as "moderate" to "robust," and the mention of rising unemployment risks was removed, indicating signs of stabilization in the unemployment rate [1][2] - Powell stated that the growth outlook has improved significantly since the last meeting, and current policy is not "clearly tight," suggesting that rate hikes are not a basic assumption for future actions [1] Group 2: Inflation and Economic Data - Powell indicated that the impact of tariffs has largely been transmitted to the economy, with expectations that tariff-related inflation will dissipate by mid-2026, a delay from previous forecasts [2] - The U.S. GDP growth rate for Q3 2025 was revised up to an annualized rate of 4.4%, the fastest growth since 2021, with stable consumer spending [2] - The unemployment rate decreased from 4.5% to 4.4%, and while non-farm payroll growth has slightly cooled, the job market remains stable, alleviating some concerns for the Fed [2] Group 3: Future Policy Outlook - The Fed is entering a data observation period to assess the effects of previous rate cuts, with inflation pressures expected to increase in the first half of the year, which may restrict further rate cuts [3] - The first rate cut is likely to be delayed until after the new chair takes office in June, unless there is a significant deterioration in the job market [3] - The Fed may have room for about two rate cuts in 2026, with potential cuts in June and before the September midterm elections, balancing economic support with political considerations [3] Group 4: Market Reactions - Following the announcement, U.S. Treasury yields rose, and the stock market showed mixed results, with the S&P 500 index slightly declining but briefly surpassing the 7000-point mark [4] - Precious metals saw significant gains, with spot gold rising over 4.5%, reaching a historical high [4]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve decided to maintain the federal funds rate target range at 3.5% to 3.75%, aligning with market expectations, while economic activity shows robust expansion but with high uncertainty regarding the economic outlook [1][2]. Group 1: Federal Reserve's Decision - The Federal Reserve's decision to keep interest rates unchanged was anticipated, with a probability exceeding 97% according to CME "FedWatch" [1]. - The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) noted that employment growth remains sluggish, but there are signs of stabilization in the unemployment rate, while inflation remains elevated [1][2]. Group 2: Economic Indicators - The overall PCE price index increased by 2.9% over the past 12 months, while the core PCE price index, excluding food and energy, rose by 4.3% [2]. - Powell indicated that tariff-induced inflation is expected to dissipate by mid-2026, suggesting a potential easing of inflationary pressures in the future [3]. Group 3: Market Expectations - The market is currently pricing in two rate cuts for this year, with a high probability of maintaining rates in March exceeding 80% [3]. - Analysts from Huatai Securities and CICC suggest that the Fed's January meeting supports a more optimistic view of the U.S. economy and employment market, with expectations of rate cuts potentially occurring after the new chair takes office mid-year [3].

Core Viewpoint - International gold prices have surged significantly, reaching a historical high with a daily increase of over $230, indicating a strong bullish outlook for the market, with targets set at $7,500 or even $10,000 for the year [1][6]. Price Movement - Gold opened at $5,181.09 per ounce, hitting a low of $5,156.87 before rebounding, trading within the $5,240 to $5,300 range during most of the European and American sessions, and closing at $5,416.67 after peaking at $5,418.68, marking a daily fluctuation of $261.81 and a gain of $235.58, or 4.55% [3][10]. Market Influences - The initial buying momentum in the Asian session was followed by a cautious approach in the European and American sessions due to expectations surrounding the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision. Despite no immediate changes in rates, gold prices rose, driven by ongoing economic and geopolitical uncertainties, suggesting a self-sustaining buying phase for precious metals [3][5]. Future Outlook - Gold opened at $5,421.64 and briefly rose to $5,595.97, supported by buying interest and geopolitical tensions, particularly regarding potential U.S. actions against Iran and the ongoing Russia-Ukraine situation. Any pullbacks are viewed as buying opportunities [1][6]. Economic Data to Watch - Upcoming economic indicators include U.S. initial jobless claims, trade balance, factory orders, and wholesale sales, with a generally positive market expectation. The prevailing sentiment remains bullish on gold [5]. Long-term Perspective - The current bull market for gold is attributed to multiple favorable factors, including geopolitical risks, economic policy uncertainties, and institutional optimism. The long-term view suggests that gold's value has been historically underestimated, and its price is expected to rise significantly, potentially reaching $10,000 by 2029 [5][6]. Technical Analysis - Monthly and weekly charts indicate a strong upward trend for gold, having broken through resistance levels. Although there may be a need for adjustments due to overbought conditions, the overall trend remains bullish, with expectations for new highs [8][10].

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve has paused interest rate changes after three consecutive rate cuts of 25 basis points, indicating a cautious approach to future monetary policy adjustments [3][7]. Group 1: Federal Reserve Decision - The recent interest rate decision saw two dissenting votes, one from Waller, marking a decrease in opposition compared to the previous meeting [4][10]. - The Federal Reserve maintained the federal funds rate target range at 3.50% to 3.75%, marking the first pause in action since July 2025 [7][10]. - The market had anticipated this pause, with over 97% probability of no rate cut expected in the current week [7]. Group 2: Economic Assessment - The Federal Reserve's statement indicated steady economic expansion and signs of stabilization in the unemployment rate, removing previous language about increased employment risks [5][14]. - The assessment of economic conditions has improved compared to the last meeting, with a shift from "moderate expansion" to "steady expansion" [13][14]. - Inflation remains slightly elevated, but the statement no longer mentions an increase in inflation rates since the beginning of the year [15]. Group 3: Future Outlook - The Federal Reserve did not provide a clear timeline for potential future actions, suggesting a period of observation following the recent controversial rate cuts [9]. - Market predictions indicate a slight increase in the likelihood of Waller being nominated as the next Federal Reserve Chair, now at approximately 13% [6][11].

Core Viewpoint - After the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision, the Nasdaq index continues to maintain an upward trend, with a latest increase of 0.11% [1] Group 1 - The Nasdaq index shows resilience in the market following the Federal Reserve's announcement [1] - The increase of 0.11% indicates positive investor sentiment post-decision [1]

Group 1 - The article discusses the market trends and performance of major commodities ahead of the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision [1] - It highlights the fluctuations in prices and trading volumes of key commodities, indicating potential market reactions to the upcoming decision [1] - The analysis provides insights into how these trends may influence investor sentiment and market strategies [1]

Core Viewpoint - The probability of the Federal Reserve lowering interest rates by 25 basis points in January is 2.8%, while the probability of maintaining the current rate is 97.2% [1] - By March, the cumulative probability of a 25 basis point rate cut rises to 15.5%, with an 84.2% chance of keeping rates unchanged, and a 0.4% chance of a cumulative 50 basis point cut [1] Summary by Category - **Interest Rate Projections** - January rate cut probability of 25 basis points: 2.8% [1] - January rate maintenance probability: 97.2% [1] - March cumulative probability of a 25 basis point cut: 15.5% [1] - March probability of maintaining rates: 84.2% [1] - Cumulative probability of a 50 basis point cut by March: 0.4% [1]