1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the documents 2. Core View of the Report - The report maintains a bullish outlook on platinum and palladium in the long - term, but in the short - term, the prices are more volatile due to technical corrections and Fed personnel changes. As of March 3, 2026, platinum and palladium have fallen 21.4% and 19.7% respectively from their January highs, and have also significantly retreated from their February 24 repair highs. The main short - term disturbance is Trump's nomination of Kevin Warsh as the next Fed Chair. Despite short - term uncertainties, in the long - run, factors such as the weakening of the US dollar's credit, the global central bank's gold - buying spree, and the supply - demand situation in the platinum and palladium industries support the prices [4]. 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - **Platinum Futures**: For contracts pt2606, pt2608, and pt2610, the current prices are 505.85, 504.20, and 500.55 respectively. The price increases are 26.95, 25.55, and 25.70, with corresponding increases of 5.63%, 5.34%, and 5.41%. The trading volumes are 8038, 258, and 117 respectively, and the open interests are all 13033 [1]. - **Palladium Futures**: For contracts pd2606, pd2608, and pd2610, the current prices are 368.55, 368.15, and 368.35 respectively. The price increases are 17.80, 19.85, and 17.80, with corresponding increases of 5.07%, 5.70%, and 5.08%. The trading volumes are 5453, 65, and 72 respectively, and the open interests are all 4522 [1]. 3.2 Spot Market - **Platinum Spot**: The Shanghai platinum price increased by 34.26 to 509.42, with an increase of 0.072%. The London platinum price increased by 58.00 to 1950.00, with an increase of 0.031%. The prices of Zhou Dafu and Lao Fengxiang platinum are 783.00 and 850.00 respectively, with the former increasing by 54.00 (0.074%) and the latter remaining unchanged [1]. - **Palladium Spot**: The Chinese palladium price increased by 13.00 to 361.00, with an increase of 0.037%. The Russian palladium price decreased by 5.79 to 3769.05, with a decrease of 0.002% [1]. 3.3 Inventory - **Platinum Inventory**: The NYMEX platinum inventory and registered warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 579,273.64 ounces and 308,556.37 ounces respectively. The Shanghai Gold Exchange's platinum trading volume increased by 24.0 kilograms to 68.00 kilograms, and the trading value increased by 1371.30 ten - thousand yuan to 3462.82 ten - thousand yuan [1]. - **Palladium Inventory**: The NYMEX palladium inventory and registered warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 248,373.69 ounces and 211,887.35 ounces respectively [1]. 3.4 Related Derivatives and Indexes - **Related Indexes**: The US dollar index increased by 0.40 to 99.63, the S&P 500 index increased by 35.53 to 6591.90, the US Treasury yield decreased by 0.06 to 4.33, the Nasdaq index increased by 167.94 to 21929.83, the Dow Jones index increased by 305.43 to 46429.49, and the US dollar - RMB exchange rate remained unchanged at 6.89 [1]. - **Related Derivatives**: For Shanghai gold contracts 2604, 2606, and 2608, the prices increased by 33.76, 34.16, and 34.40 respectively. For Shanghai silver contracts 2604, 2606, and 2608, the prices increased by 979, 1026, and 1057 respectively [1]. 3.5 Macroeconomic News - **Fed Policy**: The Fed kept the federal funds rate target range at 3.50% - 3.75%, with a 11 - 1 vote. Fed Governor Milan opposed the decision, advocating a 25 - basis - point rate cut. The dot - plot shows only one rate cut in 2026 and 2027 each, indicating a more conservative rate - cut path [2]. - **Geopolitical Event**: The military strikes by the US and Israel against Iran have disrupted shipping in the Strait of Hormuz [2]. - **Fed Chair Nomination**: Trump nominated Kevin Warsh as the next Fed Chair, but the nomination needs Senate approval. Some senators oppose the nomination [2]. - **China's Central Bank Policy**: The People's Bank of China held a 2026 payment and settlement work conference, aiming to promote the high - quality development of the modern payment system, including accelerating the construction of the RMB cross - border payment system and strengthening regulatory measures [3].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Overseas, concerns about the unending conflict between the US, Israel, and Iran have pushed up international oil prices, increasing global inflation expectations, boosting the demand for the US dollar, and causing the US dollar index and US Treasury yields to surge, leading to a significant decline in global risk appetite. Domestically, China's economy rebounded unexpectedly from January to February, exports far exceeded expectations, and inflation continued to recover, with the overall economic and inflation situation better than expected. The government work report set the main development targets and fiscal and monetary policies for 2026, with the overall targets and policy intensity lower than in 2025. The recent market trading logic mainly focuses on the Middle East geopolitical risks and the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision. In the short term, with the domestic economy performing better than expected, but under the intensifying geopolitical shocks and the hawkish stance of the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision, the stock index will fluctuate weakly in the short term. Attention should be paid to the changes in the Middle East geopolitical situation, the implementation of policies after the Two Sessions, and the changes in market sentiment [3][4]. - The overall performance of different asset classes is as follows: the stock index will fluctuate weakly in the short term, and short - term cautious observation is recommended; government bonds will fluctuate in the short term, and cautious observation is recommended; in the commodity sector, black metals will rebound in the short - term and short - term cautious observation is recommended; non - ferrous metals will fluctuate weakly in the short term, and short - term cautious observation is recommended; energy and chemical products will be strong in the short term, and cautious long - position is recommended; precious metals will fluctuate weakly in the short term, and short - term cautious observation is recommended [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro and Financial - Overseas, the market's concerns about the unending conflict between the US, Israel, and Iran have pushed up international oil prices, increasing global inflation expectations, boosting the demand for the US dollar, and causing the US dollar index and US Treasury yields to surge, leading to a significant decline in global risk appetite. Domestically, China's economy rebounded unexpectedly from January to February, exports far exceeded expectations, and inflation continued to recover, with the overall economic and inflation situation better than expected. The government work report set the main development targets and fiscal and monetary policies for 2026, with the overall targets and policy intensity lower than in 2025. The recent market trading logic mainly focuses on the Middle East geopolitical risks and the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision. In the short term, with the domestic economy performing better than expected, but under the intensifying geopolitical shocks and the hawkish stance of the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision, the stock index will fluctuate weakly in the short term. Attention should be paid to the changes in the Middle East geopolitical situation, the implementation of policies after the Two Sessions, and the changes in market sentiment [3][4]. 3.2 Stock Index - Affected by sectors such as communication services, AI, and software development, the domestic stock market declined significantly. Fundamentally, China's economy rebounded unexpectedly from January to February, exports far exceeded expectations, and inflation continued to recover, with the overall economic and inflation situation better than expected. The government work report set the main development targets and fiscal and monetary policies for 2026, with the overall targets and policy intensity lower than in 2025. The recent market trading logic mainly focuses on the Middle East geopolitical risks and the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision. In the short term, with the domestic economy performing better than expected, but under the intensifying geopolitical shocks and the hawkish stance of the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision, the stock index will fluctuate weakly in the short term. Attention should be paid to the changes in the Middle East geopolitical situation, the implementation of policies after the Two Sessions, and the changes in market sentiment. In terms of operation, short - term cautious observation is recommended [4]. 3.3 Precious Metals - The precious metals market fell overall on the night of last Friday. The main contract of Shanghai gold closed at 1016.12 yuan/gram, a decrease of 1.22%; the main contract of Shanghai silver closed at 17139 yuan/kg, a decrease of 1.77%. Affected by the sharp rise in international energy prices, the market is worried that inflation will cause global central banks to slow down the pace of interest rate cuts, and the US dollar index and US Treasury yields have strengthened significantly, causing precious metals to continue to weaken. Spot gold fell for the eighth consecutive trading day, the longest losing streak since October 2023. The decline intensified during the US session, with an intraday decline of more than $150, hitting a new low in more than a month, and finally closing down 3.45% at $4491.15 per ounce; spot silver fell below the $68 mark, finally closing down 7.04% at $67.79 per ounce. Precious metals will fluctuate weakly in the short term. In terms of operation, short - term cautious observation is recommended [5]. 3.4 Black Metals - **Steel**: On Friday, the domestic steel spot market declined slightly, and the night session rebounded slightly affected by the rebound in coking coal prices; market transactions continued to be at a low level. Fundamentally, it is still weak. Although steel inventories have peaked and declined, the growth rate of the apparent consumption of the five major varieties has slowed down. In terms of supply, after the important meeting ended, the output of the five major varieties of steel this week increased by 18850 tons month - on - month, and the iron ore output also increased by nearly 6900 tons. Recently, the cost and macro logic of the steel market dominate. It is recommended to continue to treat it with an interval oscillation idea, and pay attention to the risk of a sharp rise and fall [6][7]. - **Iron Ore**: On Friday, the spot and futures prices of iron ore rebounded slightly. In terms of demand, the daily average pig iron output of commercial and residential blast furnaces increased by 6900 tons month - on - month, and the proportion of profitable steel mills is still around 42%, so the demand for iron ore is still resilient. In terms of supply, the global iron ore arrival volume last week continued to decline by 3.8 million tons month - on - month, but the shipping volume increased. In the short term, the iron ore supply is still in the off - season. However, the futures price has reflected the expectation of the recent stage - by - stage dislocation of supply and demand, and the short - term upward space of the iron ore price may be limited. Attention should be paid to the risk of a sharp rise and fall [7]. - **Silicon Manganese/Silicon Iron**: On Friday, the spot and futures prices of silicon iron and silicon manganese rebounded significantly. This rebound is mainly affected by the rise in crude oil prices and the energy substitution logic and will continue in the short term. Fundamentally, the manganese ore spot is still firm. The semi - carbonate quotation at Tianjin Port is 40 - 40.5 yuan/ton degree, the South African high - iron index quotation is 33 - 35 yuan/ton degree, the Gabon quotation is 45 yuan/ton degree and above, the South32 Australian block quotation is 44 yuan/ton degree, and the cml Australian block is 46 yuan/ton degree. In terms of supply, according to Mysteel statistics of 187 independent silicon manganese enterprises in the country, the national capacity utilization rate is 35.7%, an increase of 0.08% from last week; the daily average output is 27980 tons/day, a decrease of 225 tons. At present, the start - up situation in the north is relatively stable, and factories are gradually hedging, with a good profit margin. The cash - inclusive ex - factory price of 72 - grade silicon iron in the main production areas of silicon iron is 5550 - 5700 yuan/ton, and the price of 75 - grade silicon iron is reported at 6100 yuan/ton. Downstream steel mills have begun to implement procurement and tendering plans one after another after the Spring Festival, and the resumption progress of the trader market is also steadily increasing. It is recommended to treat the futures prices of silicon iron and silicon manganese with an idea of oscillation and strength [8]. 3.5 Non - ferrous and New Energy - **Copper**: Macroscopically, China's economic data from January to February was slightly better than expected, especially the growth rate of fixed - asset investment turned positive, but the real estate performance was still weak, and the decline rates of new construction area, construction area, and completion area all expanded, maintaining double - digit negative growth; the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision in March kept the interest rate unchanged, and Powell's statement was hawkish, causing the market risk appetite to decline. The dynamic changes in the Federal Reserve's views will be affected by the US employment, inflation, and the Middle East situation. The core contradiction in the fundamentals is still at the mine end. It is a consensus in the market that copper mines are tight, but the probability of extreme shortage is not high; although the long - term and spot TC remain at a low level, the by - product revenues such as sulfuric acid and precious metals make up for the smelting profit. Coupled with the abundant supply of blister copper and the increasing import of scrap copper ingots, the growth rate of refined copper output is at a high level. The high copper price restrains downstream purchases, and the domestic and foreign inventories continue to accumulate. The explicit inventory of the three major exchanges is close to 1.29 million tons, reaching a record high [9]. - **Aluminum**: On Friday, the non - ferrous sector first bottomed out and then rebounded, with a relatively large rebound in the morning of the white session but a decline in the afternoon. From the import data, the domestic primary aluminum import remains at a high level; the scrap aluminum import has decreased slightly, and the overseas scrap aluminum supply is relatively tight. At present, the domestic aluminum supply is rigid and remains at a high level, with a 3% year - on - year increase in output from January to February, and the previously shut - down production capacity will resume production later, so the supply pressure still exists. Against the background that the demand side cannot bear it, the inventory continues to accumulate and is currently close to 1.36 million tons, reaching a new high in recent years. Overseas, due to the disturbance of the Middle East situation, the supply is tight, and the internal and external price difference is large [10]. - **Zinc**: The domestic zinc mines are mainly distributed in the south. With the resumption of work and production, the zinc ore processing fee in the southern region has rebounded from 1300 yuan/metal ton to 1500 yuan/metal ton, and the zinc ore processing fee in the northern region remains at 1500 yuan/metal ton. The imported ore TC has dropped from $30/dry ton to $20/dry ton. The domestic smelting capacity is still expanding, and the by - product revenue makes up for the loss, so the domestic smelting output remains at a relatively high level. Overseas smelters cut production in 2025, but will resume production in 2026, and the output will increase. The demand side is not optimistic. Real estate, infrastructure, transportation, and emerging fields such as photovoltaics are difficult to bring obvious boost to photovoltaic demand and may even decline. After the seasonal inventory accumulation of domestic zinc ingots, it has turned to decline, reaching 229,000 tons, a month - on - month decline of 7200 tons, only slightly lower than in 2022; the LME zinc inventory has increased to nearly 120,000 tons, which has increased significantly compared with the previous period [11]. - **Lead**: The production of primary lead and secondary lead has increased seasonally. The weekly output of primary lead is 56,100 tons, at the highest level in recent years; the growth rate of secondary lead is also at a high level in recent years, and the supply pressure still exists. On the demand side, the peak season has passed and it is gradually entering the off - season, and the trade - in policy has overdrawn the later demand. Since 2025, the LME lead inventory has continued to remain at a high level. Since the beginning of the year, the social inventory of primary lead has continued to accumulate, with a relatively high accumulation speed and amplitude. As of March 19, the inventory reached 72,600 tons, a month - on - month decline of 7500 tons, lower than in 2022 but higher than in 2023 - 2025. Although the LME lead inventory has not fluctuated much recently, it is still at the highest level in the same period in recent years, reaching 284,100 tons [12]. - **Nickel**: The mine end is still the current core contradiction point. The RKAB quota in Indonesia in 2026 has dropped significantly to 260 million wet tons, and there is still room for improvement later, but the decline compared with 2025 is basically a foregone conclusion. Since the Indonesian Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources requires mining enterprises to use one - quarter of the "old quota" in the first quarter, mining enterprises will maintain normal production in the first quarter without a shortage. In addition, the Middle East conflict has led to a shortage of sulfur in Indonesia, affecting the production of MHP. In addition, the previous tailings accident has also led to enterprise production cuts, and there is a risk of a decline in MHP supply. There is still support below the nickel price, but the upward space is limited by the high domestic and foreign inventories [12]. - **Tin**: On the supply side, 13,501 tons of tin ore were imported from Myanmar in the first two months, a year - on - year increase of 175%, and the monthly average level is equivalent to that in November and December last year. As the pumping of tin mines in the Wa State of Myanmar accelerates, it is expected that the import volume will still have room for further growth; the import volume of tin ore from outside Myanmar is 21,444 tons, with a year - on - year growth rate of up to 57%, reflecting that the sources of tin ore imports in China are more diversified; although the operating rate has dropped slightly by 0.42%, it is still at a high level in the same period in recent years; due to the continuous closure of the import window, 3269 tons of tin ingots were imported from January to February, a year - on - year decrease of 27%. On the demand side, the global semiconductor sales in January 2026 increased by 46% year - on - year, and the growth rate further expanded, but the performance of other traditional and emerging industries was poor. The automobile production from January to February decreased by 9.9% year - on - year, the photovoltaic module production decreased by 26% year - on - year, and the household appliance production plan continued to decline. The industry is significantly differentiated, and the semiconductor alone cannot support the overall demand, which is poor. As the tin price has dropped significantly, downstream enterprises have made concentrated purchases at low prices, and the social inventory of tin ingots has decreased by 2770 tons to 11,035 tons; the LME inventory has continued to increase, reaching 8920 tons, a month - on - month increase of 145 tons. In summary, it has fallen to the previous important support level and may stabilize and rebound in the short term. Considering that the risk appetite is still weak, be cautious when going long [13]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The latest weekly output of lithium carbonate is 24,200 tons, a new high, with a month - on - month increase of 3.2%. The social inventory of lithium carbonate is 98,873 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 89 tons. Among them, the inventories of smelters, downstream, and others have increased by 316, 458, and decreased by 860 tons respectively month - on - month. The smelters and downstream have slightly accumulated inventory, and the traders have reduced inventory. The latest warehouse receipt inventory of lithium carbonate is 34,318 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2085 tons, and the number of warehouse receipts is low. The old warehouse receipts will be concentratedly cancelled at the end of this month. The supply and demand of lithium carbonate are both prosperous. The continuous reduction of social inventory of lithium carbonate and the low inventory of smelters continue the strong reality. The Middle East geopolitical conflict has led to the strengthening of the US dollar, suppressing commodity prices, but the high oil price itself is beneficial to the long - term demand for new energy. It will fluctuate weakly in the short term. Observe cautiously and pay attention to the downstream's acceptance at low prices and the downstream inventory situation [14]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The latest weekly output is 78,400 tons, a week - on - week increase of 3745 tons (+5.0%). The weekly outputs of Sichuan, Yunnan, Xinjiang, Inner Mongolia, and Gansu are 280, 3584, 50,988, 8239, and 7140 tons respectively, and the output in Xinjiang has increased slightly. The total number of open furnaces is 209, a week - on - week increase of 1, and the furnace opening rate is 26%. Among them, there is one new open furnace in Xinjiang and one shut - down furnace in Inner Mongolia. The latest social inventory of industrial silicon is 553,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 1000 tons, and the social inventory is stable at a high level. The warehouse receipt inventory is 21,668, a week - on - week decrease of 308, and the number of warehouse receipts continues to be low. Under the situation

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The Shanghai copper main contract fluctuates weakly, with an increase in open interest, a premium in the spot market, and a strengthening basis. The copper concentrate TC spot index hits a new low again, and the expectation of tight ore still supports copper prices. The smelter's resumption of work and the utilization rate gradually recover, and copper production may increase significantly month - on - month. Upstream holders hold firm on prices when selling. Although the copper price on the disk has corrected, the spot copper still maintains a relatively firm premium. Downstream enterprises conduct bargain - hunting restocking operations as the copper price on the disk adjusts, and consumption generally remains stable. Domestic copper inventories are still in the seasonal inventory accumulation stage, but the inventory accumulation rate may slow down due to the arrival of the downstream traditional consumption peak season. Overall, the fundamentals of Shanghai copper may be in a stage of increasing supply and stable demand, with seasonal inventory accumulation in the industry. In the options market, the call - put ratio of at - the - money options is 1.17, a month - on - month decrease of 0.0932, indicating a bullish sentiment in the options market, and the implied volatility rises slightly. Technically, on the 60 - minute MACD chart, the two lines are below the 0 - axis, and the green bars are expanding. The view is to conduct light - position oscillating trading and pay attention to controlling the rhythm and trading risks [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract of Shanghai copper is 94,420.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 4,170.00 yuan; the LME 3 - month copper price is 12,074.50 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 321.00 US dollars. The main contract's inter - month spread is 30.00 yuan/ton, an increase of 40.00 yuan; the open interest of the main contract of Shanghai copper is 203,328.00 lots, an increase of 29,107.00 lots. The net position of the top 20 futures holders of Shanghai copper is - 76,315.00 lots, an increase of 2,653.00 lots. The LME copper inventory is 334,100.00 tons, an increase of 3,725.00 tons. The inventory of cathode copper in the Shanghai Futures Exchange is 433,458.00 tons, an increase of 8,313.00 tons. The LME copper cancelled warrants are 43,625.00 tons, a decrease of 50.00 tons. The warehouse receipts of cathode copper in the Shanghai Futures Exchange are 306,380.00 tons, a decrease of 2,856.00 tons. The COMEX copper inventory is 588,677.00 short tons, an increase of 313.00 short tons [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The SMM 1 copper spot price is 95,615.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3,375.00 yuan; the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Market 1 copper spot price is 95,670.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3,455.00 yuan. The CIF (bill of lading) price of Shanghai electrolytic copper is 45.00 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the average premium of Yangshan copper is 48.50 US dollars/ton, unchanged. The basis of the CU main contract is 1,195.00 yuan/ton, an increase of 795.00 yuan; the LME copper cash - to - 3 - month spread is - 107.22 US dollars/ton, an increase of 6.25 US dollars [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The import volume of copper ore and concentrates is 270.43 million tons, an increase of 17.80 million tons. The copper concentrate price in Jiangxi is 85,930.00 yuan/metal ton, a decrease of 3,460.00 yuan; the copper concentrate price in Yunnan is 86,630.00 yuan/metal ton, a decrease of 3,460.00 yuan. The processing fee for blister copper in the South is 2,100.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 200.00 yuan; the processing fee for blister copper in the North is 1,700.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 100.00 yuan. The refined copper output is 132.60 million tons, an increase of 9.00 million tons. The import volume of unwrought copper and copper products is 320,000.00 tons, a decrease of 60,000.00 tons [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The social inventory of copper is 41.82 million tons, an increase of 0.43 million tons. The price of 1 bright copper wire in Shanghai is 66,640.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 950.00 yuan; the price of 2 copper (94 - 96%) in Shanghai is 81,550.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 950.00 yuan. The ex - factory price of 98% sulfuric acid of Jiangxi Copper is 1,130.00 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. 3.5 Downstream and Application - The copper product output is 222.91 million tons, an increase of 0.31 million tons. The cumulative completed investment in power grid infrastructure is 639.502 billion yuan, an increase of 79.113 billion yuan. The cumulative completed investment in real estate development is 961.20 billion yuan, a decrease of 731.7614 billion yuan. The monthly output of integrated circuits is 4,807,345.50 ten - thousand pieces, an increase of 415,345.50 ten - thousand pieces [2]. 3.6 Options Situation - The 20 - day historical volatility of Shanghai copper is 20.11%, an increase of 6.07%; the 40 - day historical volatility of Shanghai copper is 33.89%, an increase of 1.31%. The implied volatility of at - the - money options in the current month is 22.67%, an increase of 0.0211; the call - put ratio of at - the - money options is 1.17, a decrease of 0.0932 [2]. 3.7 Industry News - The Federal Reserve keeps the federal funds rate target range unchanged at 3.50% - 3.75%, with a 11 - 1 vote. Fed Governor Milan opposes the decision and advocates a 25 - basis - point rate cut. The statement indicates that economic activity is expanding at a solid pace, inflation remains high to some extent, and there is high uncertainty in the economic outlook, especially regarding the impact of the Middle East situation on the US economy. The dot plot shows only one rate cut in 2026 - 2027 each, with a more conservative rate - cut path, highlighting the Fed's cautious stance. - The Federal Reserve raises inflation and economic growth expectations, reflecting confidence in economic resilience. Fed Chairman Powell denies that the US economy is in a stagflation state, emphasizes that the policy stance is appropriate, and that rate cuts require continuous progress in inflation. He also mentions that if there is no progress in inflation, there will be no rate cuts. Most people do not consider rate hikes as the basic expectation, but the possibility of a rate hike is mentioned. - Chinese Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Lin Jian says that the leaders' diplomacy plays an irreplaceable strategic leading role in China - US relations, and the two sides will continue to communicate on President Trump's visit to China. - The Federal Reserve raises the core PCE inflation expectations for the next two years. The expected median core PCE inflation at the end of 2026, 2027, and 2028 is 2.7%, 2.2%, and 2.0% respectively, compared with 2.5%, 2.1%, and 2.0% in December last year. The Federal Reserve also raises the GDP growth rate expectations. The expected median GDP growth rate at the end of 2026, 2027, and 2028 is 2.4%, 2.3%, and 2.1% respectively, compared with 2.3%, 2.0%, and 1.9% in December last year. - US Labor Department data shows that the US PPI rose 0.7% month - on - month in February, far exceeding the expected 0.3%; the year - on - year increase reached 3.4%, a one - year high, while the expected increase was 2.9% [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The market is affected by the ongoing conflict between the US and Iran, and there is significant uncertainty. The situation in the Middle East and Mozambique is having an impact on the aluminum smelting industry, and the market is waiting for the Fed's interest rate decision. [1][16][20] - The supply and demand of various metals are in different states. For example, copper is in a seasonal destocking phase, while zinc has an increase in domestic inventory due to insufficient demand recovery compared to supply. [1][28] - The prices of different metals are expected to have different trends. For instance, copper prices may test key support levels, and aluminum prices are expected to be weak. [1][16] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Copper - **Market Review**: The main contract of Shanghai copper 2605 closed at 98,610 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.5%. The Shanghai copper index increased its position by 9,477 lots to 576,000 lots. The spot market showed different price trends in different regions. [1] - **Important Information**: As of March 16, the national mainstream copper inventory decreased by 5.46% to 547,300 tons. The production and sales of new energy vehicles from January to February decreased year - on - year. Chile's copper production in January was 409,900 tons, and Kazakhstan's refined copper production from January to February decreased by 9.1% year - on - year. [1] - **Logic Analysis**: The conflict between the US and Iran brings uncertainty. The African wet - process copper production may be affected by the shortage of sulfuric acid supply. The downstream consumption is strong, and the substitution of refined copper rods for recycled copper rods is prominent. [1] - **Trading Strategy**: For unilateral trading, wait and see as the market sentiment weakens and copper prices test key support levels. For arbitrage and options, also wait and see. [3][4][5] Alumina - **Market Review**: The alumina 2505 contract rose 10 yuan/ton to 3,048 yuan/ton, and the weighted position decreased by 1,921 lots. The spot prices in different regions showed an upward trend. [6] - **Related Information**: Guinea is discussing policies to restrict bauxite production and exports. The UAE's aluminum exports and raw material transportation are affected by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. The registered volume of alumina warehouse receipts on the Shanghai Futures Exchange decreased on March 18. China's alumina exports from January to February decreased year - on - year, while bauxite imports increased. New alumina production capacity is expected to be put into trial production. [7][8][9] - **Trading Logic**: The news of Guinea's policy on bauxite has magnified the price fluctuations of alumina. Although the policy details are not clear, the bauxite supply is in a surplus situation. In the short term, alumina prices may be firm, but the subsequent pressure will come from the supply side. There is a basis for spot - futures arbitrage. [10][12] - **Trading Strategy**: For unilateral trading, expect a decline in an oscillatory manner. For arbitrage, buy spot delivery products and sell futures. For options, wait and see. [13][14] Electrolytic Aluminum - **Market Review**: The Shanghai aluminum 2605 contract decreased by 245 yuan/ton to 24,800 yuan/ton, and the position decreased by 9,662 lots. The spot prices in different regions decreased. [16] - **Related Information**: Bahrain Aluminum and Mozal Aluminum have reduced production due to transportation interruptions. China's imports of unforged aluminum and aluminum products from January to February decreased year - on - year, while exports increased. The cancellation of the photovoltaic tax - refund policy may affect the orders of related factories. [16][17] - **Trading Logic**: The situation in the Middle East is still tense, and the market is waiting for the Fed's interest rate decision. The reduction in aluminum smelting production in the Middle East and Mozambique continues, and there is a risk of economic weakness due to geopolitical conflicts and high oil prices. [20] - **Trading Strategy**: For unilateral trading, expect a weak performance. For arbitrage and options, wait and see. [21][22] Casting Aluminum Alloy - **Related Information**: Bahrain Aluminum and Mozal Aluminum have reduced production due to transportation interruptions. The warehouse receipt volume of casting aluminum alloy on the Shanghai Futures Exchange shows certain data. [23] - **Trading Logic**: The situation in the Middle East is tense, and the market is waiting for the Fed's interest rate decision. There is a risk of economic weakness. The supply of scrap aluminum is gradually released, but the demand recovery in the peak season is slow, and high prices and price fluctuations suppress purchasing willingness. [24] - **Trading Strategy**: For unilateral trading, expect a short - term weak performance following the aluminum price. For arbitrage and options, wait and see. [25][26] Zinc - **Market Review**: The Shanghai zinc 2605 contract decreased by 2.26% to 23,345 yuan/ton, and the position of the Shanghai zinc index increased by 1.28 lots to 205,700 lots. The spot market in Shanghai showed that the downstream enterprises took advantage of the low - price to place orders, and the spot discount narrowed. [26] - **Related Information**: As of March 16, the total inventory of zinc ingots in seven regions increased compared to previous periods. The downstream consumption recovery is slower than the arrival of smelter products. [28] - **Logic Analysis**: The supply of refined zinc in China is increasing, while the demand recovery is insufficient, and the domestic inventory is accumulating. However, there is an expectation of overseas smelter production cuts due to rising energy prices, and the low LME zinc inventory provides some support for zinc prices. [29] - **Trading Strategy**: For unilateral trading, expect a weak oscillatory performance in the short term. Wait for the price to stabilize and then go long at low prices. For arbitrage and options, wait and see. [30] Lead - **Market Review**: The Shanghai lead 2605 contract rose 0.79% to 16,650 yuan/ton, and the position of the Shanghai lead index decreased by 11,100 lots to 133,000 lots. The actual shipment volume of recycled refined lead is limited, and downstream battery production enterprises are reluctant to accept the premium price. [31] - **Related Information**: As of March 12, the social inventory of lead ingots increased. The import window is open, and imported lead is increasing. [32] - **Logic Analysis**: The increase in social inventory due to the delivery of goods by holders and the inflow of imported lead suppress the domestic lead market. However, the losses of recycled lead smelting enterprises are expanding, which provides some support for lead prices. [33] - **Trading Strategy**: For unilateral trading, continue to hold profitable long positions and raise the stop - loss line to protect profits. For arbitrage and options, wait and see. [35] Nickel - **Market Review**: The LME nickel price decreased by 130 to 17,255 US dollars/ton, the LME nickel inventory decreased by 174 to 283,740 tons, and the LME nickel 0 - 3 spread was - 206.69 US dollars/ton. [36] - **Important Information**: Greenmei has completed the rectification of the accident in Indonesia, and the production of MHP has resumed. The national economic data from January to February shows certain trends. [37] - **Logic Analysis**: The decline in copper prices and the market's trading of the recession expectation after the sharp rise in oil prices lead to a general decline in the non - ferrous metal sector. Although Greenmei has resumed production, the high cost of MHP provides cost support for nickel prices. In the short term, the macro - situation dominates the market. [37] - **Trading Strategy**: For unilateral trading, expect a weak oscillatory performance. For arbitrage and options, wait and see. [38][39] Stainless Steel - **Important Information**: Due to the geopolitical tension in West Asia, an Indian stainless - steel company has raised its product prices. The supply of industrial gas is interrupted, and logistics costs have increased. [40][42] - **Logic Analysis**: Overseas manufacturing is shrinking due to energy prices and supply issues, and some manufacturing orders are flowing back to China, but the fear of global economic recession still dominates the price trend. Stainless - steel prices are expected to follow the decline of nickel prices. [42] - **Trading Strategy**: For unilateral trading, wait for the macro - situation to stabilize. For arbitrage, wait and see. [43] Tin - **Market Review**: The main contract of Shanghai tin 2604 closed at 370,000 yuan/ton, a decrease of 9,820 yuan/ton or 2.59%. The position increased by 253 lots to 78,500 lots. The spot price decreased, and the market sentiment was cautious. [43] - **Related Information**: NVIDIA expects high revenue from its new AI chips. Nebius and Meta have reached a cooperation agreement. The supply of helium, an important raw material for chip cooling, is affected by the situation in the Strait of Hormuz. [44] - **Logic Analysis**: The situation in the Middle East is tense, and the impact of Indonesia's potential ban on tin exports is currently limited. China's imports of tin concentrates are increasing, but the production of refined tin in February decreased. The spot market is cautious, and downstream enterprises mainly consume inventory. [47] - **Trading Strategy**: For unilateral trading, expect an oscillatory performance in the range due to the unclear situation between the US and Iran and the weakening supply support from Myanmar's resumption of production. For options, wait and see. [48] Industrial Silicon - **Important Information**: An industrial silicon project in Inner Mongolia has its environmental impact assessment file accepted. [49] - **Logic Analysis**: In terms of supply and demand, the production of organic silicon and polysilicon increased in March, and the production of industrial silicon also increased. The overall supply and demand are in a tight - balance state. The low - price shipment willingness of manufacturers is not strong due to cost considerations. [50] - **Trading Strategy**: For unilateral trading, conduct range trading. For arbitrage and options, there is currently no suitable strategy. [51][52][53] Polysilicon - **Important Information**: GlobalData predicts that the global renewable energy installed capacity will increase significantly by 2031, with photovoltaic installed capacity being a major contributor. [54] - **Logic Analysis**: The production of polysilicon increased in March, and the silicon wafer production schedule also increased. The market is in a tight - balance state. The price strategy of manufacturers is divided, and the future price trend depends on whether the industry can maintain sales above the benchmark cost. [57] - **Trading Strategy**: For unilateral trading, expect an oscillatory performance with insufficient liquidity, so wait and see. For arbitrage and options, there is currently no suitable strategy. [58][59][60] Lithium Carbonate - **Important Information**: Tesla and LG Energy will invest in a battery factory in Michigan. An auction of lithium spodumene concentrate was completed. Rongbai Technology plans to adjust the equity structure of its South Korean subsidiary. [61] - **Logic Analysis**: The export of lithium mines from Zimbabwe will affect the domestic supply after May. The demand for batteries is high, and new production capacity of cathode materials will be put into operation in April. The supply and demand are marginally looser in March. Due to the external situation and regulatory environment, it is difficult for lithium prices to reach new highs, but there will be buying support if prices fall sharply. [62][64] - **Trading Strategy**: For unilateral trading, expect a weak oscillatory performance. For arbitrage and options, wait and see. [65][66]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Copper: ★★★, indicating a clearer long - trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] - Aluminum: ☆☆☆, suggesting a short - term balance between long and short trends with poor operability, advising to wait and see [1] - Alumina: ☆☆☆, suggesting a short - term balance between long and short trends with poor operability, advising to wait and see [1] - Cast Aluminum Alloy: ☆☆☆, suggesting a short - term balance between long and short trends with poor operability, advising to wait and see [1] - Zinc: ★☆☆, indicating a bearish bias with a downward - driving trend but poor operability on the trading floor [1] - Nickel and Stainless Steel: ★★★, indicating a clearer long - trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] - Tin: ☆☆☆, suggesting a short - term balance between long and short trends with poor operability, advising to wait and see [1] - Lithium Carbonate: ☆☆☆, suggesting a short - term balance between long and short trends with poor operability, advising to wait and see [1] - Industrial Silicon: ☆☆☆, suggesting a short - term balance between long and short trends with poor operability, advising to wait and see [1] - Polysilicon: ☆☆☆, suggesting a short - term balance between long and short trends with poor operability, advising to wait and see [1] Core Views - The market is affected by various factors such as the Fed's interest - rate decisions, geopolitical situations, and supply - demand relationships. Different metals have different price trends and investment opportunities [2][3][4] Summary by Metal Copper - On Tuesday, the Shanghai copper contract's position shifted to the 2605 contract at the end of the session, and the price turned down. After the contract change, the domestic spot copper was reported at 100,220 yuan, with discounts in Shanghai and Guangdong. Technically, attention should be paid to the performance in the dense moving - average area. The Fed is likely to "stand pat" this week, and the core of the market is the war situation. The decline in copper prices is supported by spot buying interest, but the uncertain war situation and high visible inventory may lead Shanghai copper to seek support at 98,000 yuan or even lower. The intensity of the shift of market speculation sentiment to risk - aversion is worthy of attention [2] Aluminum and Alumina - Shanghai aluminum fluctuated, and the spot discounts in East China, Central China, and South China widened. The total social inventory of domestic aluminum ingots and aluminum rods reached 1.72 million tons, the highest in recent years. However, production cuts in Qatar and Bahrain under the background of low overseas inventory intensified supply concerns. Aluminum prices fluctuated sharply at historical highs, and the previous high level was a resistance. The cast - aluminum - alloy market was mediocre, and the price continued to fluctuate with aluminum prices. The domestic alumina operating capacity stabilized at around 94 million tons after a decline, and the oversupply situation improved. The index in various regions rose by 10 - 20 yuan today. The short - term market is affected by the expected mineral - restriction policy in Guinea [3] Zinc - Domestic zinc ingots need to reduce prices to destock before price stabilization can be seen. The zinc - concentrate inventory of smelters has rebounded, and the domestic - mine TC has rebounded first. Concerns about the marginal tightening of macro - liquidity have put pressure on zinc prices. The de - stocking rhythm in the peak season should be continuously tracked. Shanghai zinc has fallen below the 24,000 - yuan integer mark, and there is still room for further decline. The annual oversupply expectation remains unchanged, and the general direction is to short on rebounds [4] Nickel and Stainless Steel - Shanghai nickel fluctuated in a narrow range, and the market trading was active. The market is worried about the Fed's liquidity control, and the strong US dollar has put overall pressure on the market. The spot price of Jinchuan nickel has declined, and the price of high - nickel pig iron with a grade of 10 - 12% has increased by 3 yuan per point, reaching 1,095 yuan per point. The rebound in upstream prices has continued to drive up the mid - stream prices and provided cost support. In the short term, it is still dominated by policy sentiment. The pure - nickel inventory has increased by 3,000 tons to 87,500 tons, and the stainless - steel inventory has decreased by 20,000 tons to 998,000 tons. Attention should be paid to further changes in Indonesian policies, and the overall trend is a weak shock [7] Tin - Shanghai tin closed down with a reduction in positions, and the short - term price was under pressure at the MA60 moving average. The market is highly concerned about the risk of the Middle - East situation. The overnight rebound of the US stock market and the NVIDIA annual conference's promotion of the computing - power demand outlook have temporarily eased the decline of tin prices. On the supply side, it is expected to maintain a stable supply trend, and Steel Union expects the domestic refined - tin output to be in the normal production schedule in March. It is expected that the tin price may fluctuate towards 350,000 yuan [8] Lithium Carbonate - Lithium carbonate rebounded in a volatile manner, and the market trading was active. The downstream production situation was good, and the lithium - iron - phosphate enterprises were still relatively active in production. The total market inventory decreased by 400 tons to 99,000 tons, the smelter inventory decreased by 1,200 tons to 16,300 tons, the downstream inventory increased by 200 tons to 44,000 tons, and the trader inventory decreased by 1,000 tons to 37,000 tons. The overall destocking speed has slowed down, and the change in the inventory structure is worthy of attention. The decline in smelter inventory has slowed down, and the confidence of traders in hoarding goods has wavered, and they have started to sell to the downstream. In terms of production, the lithium - carbonate production has returned to a high level at the beginning of March, and the weekly production has reached a new high. The lithium - carbonate futures price fluctuates, and the fundamentals are stronger than the expected end. It is advisable to consider going long on the near - month spread [9] Industrial Silicon - The industrial - silicon futures closed down in a volatile manner. On the supply side, the weekly supply increased slightly. The output in the Southwest region was low, the resumption of production of leading enterprises in Xinjiang accelerated, and the operation in the Northwest production area was stable. On the demand side, the operation rate of organic silicon increased slightly, but downstream procurement was cautious, and the price support was limited. The polysilicon market was weak, the operation rate of small and medium - sized manufacturers declined, and the willingness to stock up on raw materials was insufficient. Affected by the energy conflict before, the cost expectation has increased. Currently, the market has returned to fundamental trading, and it is expected that the industrial - silicon price will be mainly in a weak shock [10] Polysilicon - The polysilicon price continued to run weakly. According to SMM data, the average price of N - type dense material was 43,000 yuan per ton, a decrease of 500 yuan per ton compared with the previous day, and the market bearish sentiment was strong. The resumption of production in the industry in March was slow, and the resumption of some small and medium - sized manufacturers was postponed due to the market situation. As the "rush - for - export" window period approaches, the support of downstream battery - sheet orders has weakened, the price has fallen under pressure, the silicon - wafer segment has also weakened, and the market's willingness to bottom - fish and stock up on polysilicon is weak. SMM statistics show that the polysilicon enterprise inventory has reached 357,000 tons, an increase of 9,000 tons week - on - week, at a stage high. It is comprehensively judged that the polysilicon futures are likely to maintain a weak trend in the short term [11]

Group 1 - The domestic futures market for non-ferrous metals experienced a collective decline, with the main copper futures contract hitting the limit down at 98,580.00 yuan/ton, a drop of 9.01% [1] - Geopolitical tensions between the U.S. and Iran have increased demand for safe-haven assets, leading to a surge in gold and silver prices, while the hawkish stance of the newly appointed Federal Reserve Chairman has caused significant declines in precious and non-ferrous metals [2] - Concerns over supply disruptions from South American mines have intensified, while domestic copper production remains high due to the availability of scrap copper as a smelting raw material [2] Group 2 - Domestic copper inventories as of February 2 were reported at 340,800 tons, showing a decrease of 600 tons from January 26 but an increase of 5,000 tons from January 29 [2] - The overall smelting output continues to grow despite a slight month-on-month decline in profits, indicating a potential adjustment phase for copper prices in the short term [3] - Key factors to monitor include changes in the U.S. dollar, copper smelting output, and downstream demand [3]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's decision to maintain the federal funds rate target range at 3.5% to 3.75% reflects a pause after three consecutive rate cuts, aligning with market expectations [2] Group 1: Federal Reserve Decision - The decision received majority support but revealed significant internal divisions, with two board members voting against it, advocating for a 25 basis point cut [2] - Christopher Waller, a potential candidate for the next Fed chair, was among those advocating for a rate cut, which has increased market speculation regarding his nomination [2] - The Fed's choice to hold rates steady is supported by a balanced economic outlook, with stable economic activity and signs of labor market resilience [2] Group 2: Economic Conditions - The U.S. economy is showing steady expansion, with unemployment stabilizing and inflation trends continuing to decline, although still above long-term targets [2] - Structural inflation pressures have not fully dissipated, prompting the Fed to adopt a cautious wait-and-see approach to assess the effects of previous rate cuts [2] Group 3: Policy Independence - The Fed's commitment to maintaining policy independence is a focal point, especially amid external pressures, with Chair Powell emphasizing the need for successors to remain politically detached [2] - This commitment is seen as a factor raising the threshold for future rate cuts, aiming to prevent short-term demands from compromising long-term economic stability [2] Group 4: Future Outlook - Market consensus indicates that the timing of future rate cuts has been pushed back, with many institutions predicting no further cuts during Powell's remaining term [3] - The uncertainty surrounding the next Fed chair candidate is a significant variable affecting market expectations, with Rick Riedel currently leading the candidate list [3] - The differing policy inclinations of potential candidates could influence market perceptions of the policy cycle moving forward [3]

Group 1 - The initial jobless claims for the week ending January 24 were reported at 209,000, slightly above the market expectation of 205,000 but lower than the revised previous value of 210,000 [1] - The continuing jobless claims stood at 1.827 million, significantly below the market expectation of 1.86 million and the revised previous value of 1.865 million [1] - The four-week moving average of initial jobless claims was 206,250, revised up from 201,500 to 204,000, indicating a stable labor market within the range of 200,000 to 210,000 [1] Group 2 - The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) decided to maintain the benchmark interest rate, with Chairman Powell noting signs of stabilization in the unemployment rate and a lack of significant changes in hiring activity, job vacancies, and wage growth [1] - The market is closely watching the non-farm payroll report scheduled for release on February 6, with expectations of a slight increase in new non-farm jobs from 50,000 in December to 70,000 in January, while the unemployment rate is expected to remain at 4.4% [1] - There is uncertainty regarding the timely release of the non-farm employment report due to potential government shutdowns if a new funding bill is not passed by January 31 [2]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve has decided to maintain the federal funds rate target range at 3.5% to 3.75%, marking a pause in its easing policy after three consecutive "preemptive" rate cuts from September to December 2025, reflecting a cautious yet optimistic economic outlook [1] Group 1: Monetary Policy Decisions - The decision was passed with 10 votes in favor and 2 against, with one less dissenting vote compared to the previous meeting [1] - The language in the meeting statement was upgraded from describing economic expansion as "moderate" to "robust," and the mention of rising unemployment risks was removed, indicating signs of stabilization in the unemployment rate [1][2] - Powell stated that the growth outlook has improved significantly since the last meeting, and current policy is not "clearly tight," suggesting that rate hikes are not a basic assumption for future actions [1] Group 2: Inflation and Economic Data - Powell indicated that the impact of tariffs has largely been transmitted to the economy, with expectations that tariff-related inflation will dissipate by mid-2026, a delay from previous forecasts [2] - The U.S. GDP growth rate for Q3 2025 was revised up to an annualized rate of 4.4%, the fastest growth since 2021, with stable consumer spending [2] - The unemployment rate decreased from 4.5% to 4.4%, and while non-farm payroll growth has slightly cooled, the job market remains stable, alleviating some concerns for the Fed [2] Group 3: Future Policy Outlook - The Fed is entering a data observation period to assess the effects of previous rate cuts, with inflation pressures expected to increase in the first half of the year, which may restrict further rate cuts [3] - The first rate cut is likely to be delayed until after the new chair takes office in June, unless there is a significant deterioration in the job market [3] - The Fed may have room for about two rate cuts in 2026, with potential cuts in June and before the September midterm elections, balancing economic support with political considerations [3] Group 4: Market Reactions - Following the announcement, U.S. Treasury yields rose, and the stock market showed mixed results, with the S&P 500 index slightly declining but briefly surpassing the 7000-point mark [4] - Precious metals saw significant gains, with spot gold rising over 4.5%, reaching a historical high [4]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve decided to maintain the federal funds rate target range at 3.5% to 3.75%, aligning with market expectations, while economic activity shows robust expansion but with high uncertainty regarding the economic outlook [1][2]. Group 1: Federal Reserve's Decision - The Federal Reserve's decision to keep interest rates unchanged was anticipated, with a probability exceeding 97% according to CME "FedWatch" [1]. - The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) noted that employment growth remains sluggish, but there are signs of stabilization in the unemployment rate, while inflation remains elevated [1][2]. Group 2: Economic Indicators - The overall PCE price index increased by 2.9% over the past 12 months, while the core PCE price index, excluding food and energy, rose by 4.3% [2]. - Powell indicated that tariff-induced inflation is expected to dissipate by mid-2026, suggesting a potential easing of inflationary pressures in the future [3]. Group 3: Market Expectations - The market is currently pricing in two rate cuts for this year, with a high probability of maintaining rates in March exceeding 80% [3]. - Analysts from Huatai Securities and CICC suggest that the Fed's January meeting supports a more optimistic view of the U.S. economy and employment market, with expectations of rate cuts potentially occurring after the new chair takes office mid-year [3].