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ATFX汇评:美联储会议纪要显示,两名票委反对维持利率不变
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-08-21 10:16
▲ATFX图 近期,特朗普密集抨击美联储维持利率不变的政策,对美联储主席也表现出不满情绪。但是,美联储在美国是独立机构,并不受到白宫决策的影响。特朗 普想要美联储将基准利率大幅调降至1%左右的企图很难达成。现任美联储主席鲍威尔的任期到明年5月份,在无法合理辞退鲍威尔的前提下,特朗普只能 在下一任美联储主席人选方面做文章。 美联储每一次利率决议,都是那些想要成为下任美联储主席的委员的考验。显而易见,只有那些坚定支持降息的委员,才有可能被特朗普选中。那些支持 按兵不动的委员,非但不会有机会成为下任美联储主席,还有可能被迫离开美联储,比如因个人原因缺席7月份利率决议的库格勒。最新消息显示,特朗 普开始对美联储理事库克发难,指责其存在的两处房产在按揭方面存在问题。特朗普表示,库克必须立即辞职。 在7月份的利率决议上,美联储理事库克支持按兵不动,这显然违背了特朗普的意愿。特朗普指控丽莎·库克,表面看是因为按揭流程违规,但更有可能 是"杀鸡儆猴",通过逼退库克来震慑美联储其他票委,以期在不更换美联储主席的前提下,实现降息的目的。 ATFX汇评:今日2:00,美联储发布会议纪要,对应7月31日利率决议,当时决议结果维持4. ...
施压升级!鲍威尔拒不降息 特朗普怒令美联储理事会“夺权”
智通财经网· 2025-08-01 12:33
Group 1 - President Trump escalates his long-standing conflict with Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, demanding significant interest rate cuts and suggesting the Fed Board should "take control" if Powell refuses to act [1] - Following the Fed's decision to maintain interest rates, investors anticipate only one rate cut by the end of the year, with no clear signals from Powell regarding future cuts [1] - The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), chaired by Powell, is responsible for interest rate decisions, consisting of seven members from the Washington Fed Board and five regional Fed presidents [1] Group 2 - Treasury Secretary Mnuchin indicates that Trump is expected to announce Powell's successor by the end of the year [2] - Mnuchin mentions a list of strong candidates is being prepared, and suggests a potential majority in favor of rate cuts may soon form within the Fed Board due to upcoming vacancies [3] - The recent FOMC decision saw dissent from two board members, marking the first time since 1993 that two members voted against the decision [3]
特朗普威胁鲍威尔
Xin Jing Bao· 2025-08-01 11:37
Core Viewpoint - President Trump criticized Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell for not lowering interest rates, suggesting that the Federal Reserve Board should take control if Powell continues to refuse to act [1] Group 1: Federal Reserve's Interest Rate Decision - On July 30, the Federal Reserve decided to maintain the federal funds rate target range at 4.25% to 4.50%, marking the fifth consecutive time since early 2025 that rates have been held steady [1] - The decision was met with dissent from two board members appointed by Trump, who voted against the decision in favor of an immediate 25 basis point rate cut, marking the first time since 1993 that two board members opposed a rate decision simultaneously [1]
特朗普怒批鲍威尔,“他太愤怒、太愚蠢、太政治化了”
Zhong Guo Ji Jin Bao· 2025-07-31 14:57
Core Viewpoint - President Trump continues to criticize Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, claiming he is unfit for the position and is causing significant economic losses for the country [1][3]. Group 1: Federal Reserve's Monetary Policy - The Federal Reserve decided to maintain the federal funds rate target range at 4.25% to 4.50%, marking the fifth consecutive meeting without a change [1]. - Market expectations align with the Fed's decision, as the probability of maintaining rates in September is 60.8%, while the likelihood of a 25 basis point cut is 39.2% [3]. - Analysts from Deutsche Bank predict that the Fed may signal a willingness to cut rates in the near future, which could lead to a weaker dollar [6]. Group 2: Trump's Criticism and Economic Implications - Trump labeled Powell as "Mr. Too Late," accusing him of being ineffective and politically motivated, which he claims is detrimental to the economy [1][3]. - Trump also criticized the renovation of the Federal Reserve building, calling it one of the most corrupt projects in history [3]. - He emphasized the importance of tariffs for national protection, stating that without them, the country would face dire consequences [7].
国投期货贵金属日报-20250731
Guo Tou Qi Huo· 2025-07-31 13:03
Report Industry Investment Rating - Gold: ★★★, indicating a clearer long - trend with a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1] - Silver: ★★★, indicating a clearer long - trend with a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1] Core View - Overnight, the US announced that the annualized quarterly rate of GDP in Q2 rebounded by 3%, exceeding expectations, and ADP employment increased by 104,000, also exceeding expectations and the previous value. After the data release, the US dollar rebounded, and precious metals fell under pressure. The Fed meeting maintained the interest rate as expected, with increasing internal differences. Powell reiterated that rate cuts would depend on data. Recently, geopolitical risks have been stable, tariff negotiations have become clearer, the risk of economic recession has decreased, and the cooling of risk - aversion sentiment has suppressed the performance of precious metals, and the shock adjustment may continue. Attention should be paid to the US weekly initial jobless claims and PCE data tonight [1] Summary According to Related Content Fed Interest Rate Decision - The Fed maintained the interest rate at 4.25% - 4.50%. Governors Waller and Bowman voted against and advocated rate cuts. Powell avoided guiding on a September rate cut, stating that the current monetary policy stance is in a favorable position, emphasizing dependence on data. The market's bet on the Fed's full - year rate cut decreased by 8BP to 36BP [2] Tariff Policies - Trump signed an executive order to suspend the minimum tax - free treatment for low - value goods. He set August 1st as a non - extendable deadline, with India to pay 25% tariffs and be fined for purchasing military and energy products from Russia starting August 1st. He also announced a 50% tariff on imported semi - finished copper products (excluding copper ore and cathode copper) starting August 1st, causing US copper to plummet 18%. An executive order was signed to impose a 40% tariff on Brazil, making the total tariff reach 50% (excluding aircraft and energy sectors) 7 days later. A comprehensive trade agreement was reached with South Korea, with a 15% tariff on South Korea, and South Korea will invest $350 billion and purchase $100 billion worth of energy products. Canada may not end trade negotiations with the US by August 1st, and France is negotiating for tariff exemptions on wine and spirits [2] US Economic Data - The US economic growth in Q2 was 3%, exceeding the expected 2.4%. The ADP employment in July increased by 104,000, exceeding the expected 75,000, rebounding to the highest growth level since March [3]
新能源及有色金属日报:沪镍窄幅震荡,关注宏观数据情况-20250731
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-07-31 05:29
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Views - For the nickel variety, the recent market sentiment has cooled down, and the oversupply pattern of refined nickel remains. The estimated upper limit of the recent range is between 123,000 - 125,000 yuan/ton, and the lower limit is around 117,000 - 118,000 yuan/ton. Short - term range trading is recommended, and attention should be paid to the Fed's interest rate decision and China's official PMI data for July [2][3]. - For the stainless - steel variety, the main contract of stainless steel has a bottom - divergence structure at 12,400 yuan/ton. It is expected to break through the 120 - day moving average resistance level. The estimated upper limit of the recent range is around 13,100 yuan/ton, and the lower limit is between 12,400 - 12,500 yuan/ton. Short - term range trading is also recommended, along with monitoring the Fed's interest rate decision and China's official PMI data for July [4][6]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Nickel Variety - **Market Analysis** - On July 30, 2025, the main contract 2509 of Shanghai nickel opened at 121,500 yuan/ton and closed at 121,720 yuan/ton, a change of - 0.15% from the previous trading day's closing price. The trading volume was 153,323 lots, and the open interest was 92,635 lots [1]. - The main contract 2509 showed a narrow - range oscillation throughout the day, with a small positive line on the daily chart. The trading volume increased compared to the previous trading day, and the open interest increased slightly. The red column area of the daily MACD continued to narrow, indicating a weakening upward momentum in the short term. There was a bottom - divergence phenomenon around 117,000 yuan/ton on June 23, and it is estimated that 117,000 yuan/ton is a strong support level in the medium - to - long term [2]. - In the spot market, the morning quotation of Jinchuan nickel was raised by 600 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day, and the quotations of mainstream brands in the market were all raised. The refined nickel futures price has been rising continuously following commodities due to the influence of capital sentiment, but the sentiment has shown signs of cooling this week. The spot trading of refined nickel is acceptable, and the oversupply pattern of the fundamentals remains unchanged. The premium and discount have decreased due to the influence of contract switching but are still at a high level, so the spot price provides support for the futures price. The premium of Jinchuan nickel changed by - 100 yuan/ton to 2,100 yuan/ton, the premium of imported nickel changed by - 100 yuan/ton to 300 yuan/ton, and the premium of nickel beans was - 450 yuan/ton. The previous trading day's Shanghai nickel warehouse receipt volume was 21,759 (- 121.0) tons, and the LME nickel inventory was 208,092 (3,180) tons [2]. - **Strategy** - Short - term range trading is the main strategy. The upper limit of the estimated range is 123,000 - 125,000 yuan/ton, and the lower limit is 117,000 - 118,000 yuan/ton. Pay attention to the Fed's interest rate decision and China's official PMI data for July. For single - side trading, range trading is recommended; for cross - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options trading, there are no specific strategies [3]. Stainless - Steel Variety - **Market Analysis** - On July 30, 2025, the main contract 2509 of stainless steel opened at 12,880 yuan/ton and closed at 12,920 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 153,403 lots, and the open interest was 102,650 lots [3]. - The main contract of stainless steel oscillated slightly upward, with a doji positive line on the daily chart. The trading volume of the 09 contract increased compared to the previous trading day, and the open interest decreased slightly. The red column area of the daily MACD continued to narrow, and the sharp decline after the rally last Friday night indicated that there was pressure above 13,100 yuan/ton. It is considered that 13,100 yuan/ton is a short - term resistance level. There was a bottom - divergence phenomenon around 12,400 yuan/ton on June 24, and it is estimated that 12,400 yuan/ton is a strong support level in the medium - to - long term [4]. - In the spot market, the morning quotations of merchants in the Foshan market were raised by 50 - 100 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. The spot trading volume has rebounded, and the downstream purchasing sentiment has also improved. According to Mysteel, the nickel - iron market quotation decreased compared to the previous trading day, and most sellers' quotations were around 905 yuan/nickel (including tax at the factory). It is expected that the nickel - iron price will remain stable in the short term. The stainless - steel price in the Wuxi market was 13,000 yuan/ton, and in the Foshan market was also 13,000 yuan/ton. The premium and discount of 304/2B were 110 - 310 yuan/ton. The ex - factory tax - included average price of high - nickel pig iron changed by 0.50 yuan/nickel point to 912.0 yuan/nickel point [4][5]. - **Strategy** - Short - term range trading is the main strategy. The upper limit of the estimated range is around 13,100 yuan/ton, and the lower limit is 12,400 - 12,500 yuan/ton. Pay attention to the Fed's interest rate decision and China's official PMI data for July. For single - side trading, a neutral strategy is recommended; for cross - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options trading, there are no specific strategies [6].
一图读懂美联储2025年7月利率决议丨财料
Jin Shi Shu Ju· 2025-07-30 21:34
Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve has maintained the interest rate at 4.25%-4.50%, marking the fifth consecutive meeting without changes, aligning with market expectations [5][6]. Summary by Sections Interest Rate Decision - The Federal Reserve decided to keep the benchmark interest rate unchanged at 4.25%-4.50%, consistent with market predictions [5]. - This decision reflects a cautious approach amid economic uncertainties and inflation concerns [6]. Voting Discrepancies - There was a notable dissent among the board members, with Governors Waller and Bowman advocating for a rate cut, marking the first time in over 30 years that two members voted against the majority [5][6]. Inflation Outlook - The Fed did not alter its inflation language, indicating that inflation remains somewhat elevated [6]. - Core PCE inflation is projected to rise by 2.7% year-on-year, while overall PCE is expected to increase by 2.5% [6]. Economic Outlook - Economic growth has slowed in the first half of the year, and uncertainty regarding future economic conditions remains high [6]. - The Fed's current policy stance is viewed as favorable, but decisions regarding future meetings will depend on incoming data [6][10]. Market Reactions - Analysts suggest that the Fed may resume a loosening cycle in the fall if inflation pressures from tariffs are confirmed to be temporary [10]. - The market is closely monitoring the Fed's stance, with expectations of potential rate cuts depending on economic data trends [10][13].
“美联储传声筒”Nick Timiraos:美联储利率决议维持利率不变,鲍曼和沃勒持不同意见,赞成降息,声明的前两段符合市场预期,但没有明显的措辞修饰。
news flash· 2025-07-30 18:05
Group 1 - The Federal Reserve's decision to maintain interest rates unchanged aligns with market expectations, indicating a cautious approach to monetary policy [1] - Officials Bowman and Waller expressed differing opinions, advocating for a rate cut, suggesting potential shifts in future monetary policy [1] - The initial statements from the Federal Reserve lacked significant wording embellishments, reflecting a straightforward communication style [1]
金荣中国:美联储利率决议公布在即,金价触底反弹震荡走高
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-07-30 01:37
Market Overview - International gold prices experienced fluctuations and closed higher on July 29, with an opening price of $3,314.71 per ounce, a high of $3,334.13, a low of $3,307.99, and a closing price of $3,320.60 [1]. Economic Indicators - The U.S. JOLTs job openings for June recorded 7.437 million, below the market expectation of 7.5 million and down from the previous value of 7.769 million. This indicates a decline in job openings after two months of increases, suggesting a stable overall labor demand [2][4]. - The Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index for July was reported at 97.2, exceeding the market expectation of 95 and up from the previous value of 93. This reflects a slight improvement in consumer sentiment, although it remains below last year's levels [2][4]. Federal Reserve Insights - Federal Reserve officials are reportedly divided on the need for future interest rate cuts, with some waiting for clearer evidence before making a decision. The focus will be on whether Chairman Powell will hint at a potential rate cut in September during the upcoming press conference [4][6]. Trade Developments - The U.S. Commerce Secretary announced that President Trump will unveil pharmaceutical industry policies within two weeks. Additionally, Trump indicated that India may face tariffs of 20%-25%, although an agreement has not yet been finalized [5][6]. Technical Analysis of Gold - Gold prices showed a rebound after a period of decline, with short-term support levels being established. The market is currently in a cautious trading phase, with specific trading ranges suggested for both long and short positions [8].
研究所晨会观点精萃-20250730
Dong Hai Qi Huo· 2025-07-30 00:58
Group 1: Report Overview - The report is the Morning Meeting View Highlights of the Research Institute on July 30, 2025, covering macro - finance, stocks, precious metals, black metals, non - ferrous metals, energy chemicals, and agricultural products [2] Group 2: Macro - Finance - Overseas, the US dollar index continued to rise due to market waiting for the Fed's interest - rate decision, better - than - expected economic data, and good results of US trade negotiations. However, the June job - vacancy data was worse than expected, indicating some weakness in the US labor market, and the good performance of US Treasury auctions led to a decline in Treasury yields. Domestically, China's economic growth in the first half of the year was higher than expected, but consumption and investment slowed down significantly in June. China introduced a national child - rearing subsidy system, and a new round of Sino - US trade talks may extend the 90 - day tariff truce, which is beneficial to domestic risk appetite [2] - For assets, stocks are expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term, and it is advisable to be cautiously long; Treasury bonds are expected to fluctuate and correct at a high level in the short term, and it is advisable to wait and see; for the commodity sector, black metals may have increased short - term fluctuations, and it is advisable to be cautiously long; non - ferrous metals may fluctuate and correct in the short term, and it is advisable to wait and see; energy chemicals may rebound in the short term, and it is advisable to be cautiously long; precious metals may fluctuate at a high level in the short term, and it is advisable to wait and see [2] Group 3: Stocks - Driven by sectors such as biomedicine, steel, and communication equipment, the domestic stock market rose slightly. The short - term macro - upward drive has increased, and it is advisable to be cautiously long in the short term. Follow - up attention should be paid to the progress of Sino - US trade talks and the implementation of domestic incremental policies [3] Group 4: Precious Metals - The precious - metals market continued to fluctuate narrowly. With the continuous conclusion of trade agreements, market risk appetite recovered, and precious metals were under pressure. The Sino - US negotiation results met market expectations. The market expects the Fed to keep the interest - rate range at 4.25 - 4.5% unchanged this week and maintains the expectation of an interest - rate cut in September. Precious metals may fluctuate in the short term, but the medium - and long - term upward pattern remains unchanged, and the strategic allocation value of gold is prominent [4] Group 5: Black Metals Steel - The domestic steel futures and spot markets rebounded significantly, but the trading volume remained low. The market sentiment improved due to anti - involution policies and possible production restrictions in the north. The real demand has not improved significantly, the apparent consumption of five major steel products decreased by 1.98 tons week - on - week, and the supply decreased by 1.22 tons week - on - week. The coke price increase was implemented for the fourth time, and the cost support was strong. The steel market is expected to fluctuate strongly in the near future [5][6] Iron Ore - The futures and spot prices of iron ore rebounded significantly. The growth space of iron - ore demand is limited, and if production - restriction policies are implemented from August to September, iron - water production may decline. Steel mills mainly replenish inventory on a rigid - demand basis. The global iron - ore shipping volume increased by 91 tons week - on - week, but the arrival volume decreased by 130.7 tons. The port inventory increased slightly. Iron - ore prices are expected to fluctuate within a range in the short term [6] Silicon Manganese/Silicon Iron - The spot and futures prices of silicon iron and silicon manganese rebounded. The port manganese - ore quotation increased. The production attitude of Inner Mongolia factories is positive. The national utilization rate of silicon - manganese production capacity increased by 1.05% to 41.58%, and the daily output increased by 520 tons; the national utilization rate of silicon - iron production capacity increased by 0.88% to 33.33%, and the daily output increased by 330 tons. The prices of ferroalloys are expected to be strong in the short term [7] Soda Ash - The main soda - ash contract was strong. The supply decreased week - on - week, but there is still an oversupply situation. The downstream demand is weak, and the profit decreased week - on - week. The anti - involution policy supports the bottom price, but the long - term price is suppressed by the loose supply - demand pattern. In the short term, the price center is rising due to policy trading, but it is advisable to hold an empty position to avoid risks when the trading logic returns to fundamentals [8] Glass - The main glass contract was strong. The daily melting volume increased slightly, and the supply pressure increased due to the off - season. The terminal real - estate industry is weak, and the demand has not improved. The profit increased week - on - week. The anti - involution policy and relevant guidelines support the short - term price, but it is advisable to hold an empty position to avoid risks when the trading logic returns to fundamentals [8][9] Group 6: Non - Ferrous Metals and New Energy Copper - The US plans to impose 15% - 20% tariffs on countries without trade agreements. The short - term growth - stabilization plan is beneficial to copper prices. The current spot TC of copper concentrate is - 42.63 dollars/ton, showing a slight recovery. Comex copper inventories continue to accumulate, reaching over 250,000 short tons, the highest level in recent years [10] Aluminum - Aluminum prices fell slightly on Tuesday. Fundamentally, the situation is weakening, with domestic social inventories and LME inventories increasing. The impact of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology's document is limited. The expected increase in aluminum prices is limited, and it is advisable to wait for the sentiment to cool down instead of shorting for the time being [10] Aluminum Alloy - The supply of scrap aluminum is tight, and the production cost of recycled - aluminum plants is rising, leading to losses and even production cuts. It is in the off - season, and the manufacturing orders are growing weakly. Considering cost support, the short - term price is expected to fluctuate strongly, but the upside space is limited [10] Tin - The combined utilization rate of production capacity in Yunnan and Jiangxi continued to rise to 55.51%, an increase of 1.03% week - on - week. The supply of tin ore tends to be loose. The terminal demand is weak, and the inventory increased by 230 tons. The price is expected to fluctuate in the short term, and the upside space will be suppressed in the medium term [11] Lithium Carbonate - The main lithium - carbonate contract 09 fell 5.9% on Tuesday, with the latest settlement price at 70,300 yuan/ton. The weighted contract reduced positions by 79,000 lots, with a total position of 720,000 lots. The prices of battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate both decreased by 3,000 yuan/ton. The price of Australian lithium ore decreased. It is advisable to wait and see in the short term and look for opportunities after the price stabilizes [12][13] Industrial Silicon - The main industrial - silicon contract 09 rose 2.35% on Tuesday, with the weighted contract increasing positions by 10,000 lots to 530,000 lots. The spot price of East - China oxygen - containing 553 was 9,800 yuan/ton, with a spot premium of 450 yuan/ton. The latest warehouse - receipt inventory was 250,400 tons. It is advisable to wait and see due to large short - term fluctuations [13] Polysilicon - The main polysilicon contract 09 settled at 50,250 yuan/ton on Tuesday, a significant increase of 3.76%. The weighted contract increased positions by 26,000 lots to 360,000 lots. The SMM forecasts that the polysilicon output in July will be about 110,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of about 10%. There are many disturbances in the news, and it is risky to short directly [14] Group 7: Energy Chemicals Crude Oil - The US may impose economic sanctions on Russia if it fails to reach a cease - fire agreement with Ukraine, which intensifies the market's concern about supply tightness. The market is closely watching the August 1 tariff deadline and the OPEC+ meeting on Sunday. Oil prices are expected to be strong and fluctuate in the near future [15] Asphalt - The main asphalt contract stabilized after a downward resonance. The inventory decreased slightly, the trading volume was low, and the overall demand was average. The basis was stable, and the social inventory continued to accumulate slightly. The market believes that this year's demand is slightly lower than expected, and it is necessary to focus on the inventory - reduction situation in the later stage. The short - term absolute price will follow the crude - oil price, but the upside space is limited [15] PX - The tight supply of PX continued. The external price dropped to $851, and the price difference with naphtha remained at $293. The PTA processing fee dropped to a new low in the past six months, which may lead to production cuts of leading devices. There is a risk of downstream negative feedback. PX prices are expected to fluctuate in the short term, and the upside space is limited [15] PTA - The basis remained at around - 5. The port - inventory accumulation slowed down slightly. After the downstream sales soared last week, the downstream inventory decreased significantly, but the profit did not increase substantially. In the later stage, the downstream may face inventory - accumulation pressure and production cuts. The PTA processing fee is low, and the leading devices are reducing production. There is bottom support, and it is necessary to wait for the change in the August stocking rhythm [16][17] Ethylene Glycol - The ethylene - glycol port inventory decreased slightly to 521,000 tons, but the price declined due to sector resonance, especially for coal - based ethylene glycol. There is an expectation of the resumption of domestic shutdown and maintenance devices. The downstream start - up rate remains low, and the terminal orders in the off - season have no significant increase. The price is expected to fluctuate within a range in the near future [17] Short - Fiber - Crude - oil prices fluctuated moderately, but the short - fiber price declined due to sector resonance. The terminal orders are average, and the start - up rate has bottomed out but has not rebounded significantly. The short - fiber inventory has decreased slightly, and more inventory reduction needs to wait for the peak - season stocking in August. Short - fiber prices are expected to follow the polyester end and may be shorted on rebounds in the medium term [17] Methanol - The MA2509 contract closed at 2434 yuan/ton on July 29, down 8 yuan/ton from the previous day. The position decreased by 40,700 lots to 576,000 lots. The Taicang price fluctuated slightly, and the basis was stable. The methanol price in Shaanxi and Inner Mongolia decreased slightly. The coal - price increase supports the methanol price, but the upward movement is restricted by device restart, increased imports, and compressed MTO profit. Methanol prices are expected to return to the oscillation range. It is advisable for conservative investors to wait and see before the Politburo meeting [18] PP - The PP market price partially declined, and the mainstream price of East - China drawn wire was 7100 - 7180 yuan/ton. The polyolefin inventory of Sinopec and PetroChina decreased by 30,000 tons to 780,000 tons on July 29. Affected by multiple policies, there is still some price support, but the supply is loose, the downstream demand is weakened by high prices, and the supply - demand relationship is under pressure. PP prices are expected to fluctuate weakly [19] LLDPE - The polyethylene market price was adjusted, and the standard - product transaction price was 7250 - 7500 yuan/ton. The prices in North, East, and South China decreased by 20, 30, and 50 yuan/ton respectively. The futures contract of polyethylene corrected, and the short - term fluctuation may be affected by policies. Before the Politburo meeting, the price is expected to fluctuate and wait for a direction. In the long term, the oversupply pattern has not changed significantly, and the downstream demand weakens during the price increase, and the import profit increases significantly. The fundamentals may deteriorate more than expected. Polyethylene prices are expected to fluctuate in the short term and decline in the long term [19] Group 8: Agricultural Products US Soybeans - The November soybean contract on the CBOT closed at 1008.25, down 3.25 or 0.32% (settlement price 1009.50). Favorable weather in the US soybean - producing areas puts pressure on soybean prices, while soybean oil provides some support. As of July 27, 2025, the US soybean good - and - excellent rate was 70%, better than the market expectation of 67% [20][21] Soybean Meal/Rapeseed Meal - Sino - US trade talks affect the sentiment of the US soybean market. If the US soybean production increase is stable, it may lead to a short - selling market at the end of the crop - growing season in late August, which will drag down the domestic soybean - meal market. Domestic oil mills have a high and stable start - up rate, and the soybean - meal inventory is gradually accumulating, with a weak basis. The national full - sample oil - mill start - up rate was 64.74% on July 29, up 0.51% from the previous day. It is worth noting that the spot buying at low prices has increased in some areas, and the basis trading volume from May to July next year has increased [21] Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil - Palm oil has a large pressure to realize profits at a high level, the price difference between soybean oil and palm oil has shrunk at a low level, and soybean oil has made up for the increase, but there is no fundamental support. The spot trading of soybean oil is light, the terminal consumption is weak, the oil - mill crushing volume has decreased, but the inventory is still accumulating, and the basis quotations in various regions continue to be at the bottom [21] Palm Oil - The strong international crude - oil price, the weakening ringgit, and the rise of US soybean oil may boost the early - morning performance of Malaysian crude - palm - oil futures. The palm - oil market is bullish without signs of correction, but the upward resistance has increased significantly. With the increase of domestic palm - oil imports, the inventory is accumulating in the off - season. The production of Malaysian palm oil is progressing smoothly, the export has declined month - on - month, and the inventory - accumulation expectation is strong. From July 1 - 25, 2025, the production of Malaysian palm oil increased by 5.52% month - on - month, and the export decreased by 8.53% month - on - month [22]