来源：南篱论金 2025.10.02 周四 文/南篱 各位好，我是南篱，一个财经人。 开个玩笑，毕竟今天我看到热搜上说，阿川聚集高级将领是为了解决关于纪律要求。乜啊？这战忽局是不是新建立的，要忽悠也该有个度，你可 以说是为了检验忠诚度，对驴那边发起冲击，那我就信一下好吧。 再坚持一天我就放假啦哈哈哈哈哈哈哈哈哈 | 3.25%-3.50% | | | 41.4% | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 3.50%-3.75% | | 89.0% | 52.7% | | 3.75%-4.00% | 99.4% | 11.0% | 5.9% | | 4.00%-4.25%(当前利率) | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% | | 4.25%-4.50% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% 10 | 人在公司，皱眉看现在的基本面乱局，感觉川字纹都多了一条。不是，这个世界越看越像一个巨大的草台班子。 来吧，还没有开始利率决议，已经可以开始押注了呢。至于老美关门多少天，不晓得啊不晓得，这玩意儿谁能算出来呢，要不问一问自己的信 仰？ 以及，对于明天是否有非农呢，大概率是没有的。但是有人不死心 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - **Precious Metals**: Fed's internal divergence increases policy uncertainty, weakening the US dollar's credit. Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and political unrest in Europe boost safe - haven buying. Central bank gold purchases offer long - term support, and the decline of the US dollar index is beneficial for gold prices. Domestic gold prices are relatively stronger than international ones [3]. - **Copper**: After the Fed's interest - rate decision, the short - term impact of macro factors on copper prices will decrease. Copper shows certain resilience and may continue to fluctuate strongly around 80,000 yuan per ton. Supply is tight in the short term, and demand remains stable [17]. - **Aluminum**: The core factors for aluminum prices are macro - policy expectations and peak - season fundamentals. After the September interest - rate cut, the macro - drive pauses, and the focus of Shanghai aluminum trading may shift to fundamentals. After a short - term price correction, Shanghai aluminum may fluctuate strongly [37]. - **Zinc**: The supply is in an oversupply state. The market's expectation for the "Golden September and Silver October" is average. The inventory shows an external - strong and internal - weak pattern. In the short term, it will mainly fluctuate [65]. - **Nickel**: For nickel ore, there are concerns about supply stability. The prices of MHP and nickel salts may continue to be strong. Nickel - iron prices are firm, and stainless - steel prices are in a stalemate [80]. - **Tin**: After the Fed's interest - rate decision, the impact of macro factors on tin prices decreases. In the short - term supply - tight situation, tin prices may mainly fluctuate [95]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: Before the National Day holiday, lithium carbonate futures prices may fluctuate and consolidate [107]. - **Silicon Industry Chain**: Near the National Day holiday, both long and short sides in the technical aspect are closing positions. The fundamentals have no significant changes, and market sentiment is average [116]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Precious Metals - **Price Movement**: The report presents the price trends of SHFE gold and silver futures, COMEX gold and silver ratios, and the relationship between gold and the US dollar index, US Treasury real interest rates, etc. [4][9][12] - **Inventory**: It shows the inventory data of SHFE and COMEX gold and silver [16]. Copper - **Futures Data**: The latest prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of Shanghai copper futures (main contract, continuous contracts) and LME copper are provided. The main contract of Shanghai copper is 79,960 yuan per ton, with a daily increase of 40 yuan and a daily increase rate of 0.05% [18]. - **Spot Data**: The latest prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of various copper spot prices are given. For example, the price of Shanghai Non - ferrous 1 copper is 80,045 yuan per ton, with a daily increase of 35 yuan and a daily increase rate of 0.04% [23]. - **Import and Processing**: The copper import profit and loss is - 108.53 yuan per ton, with a daily change of - 29.82 yuan and a daily change rate of 37.89%. The copper concentrate TC is - 40.65 US dollars per ton [28]. - **Warehouse Receipts and Inventory**: The total Shanghai copper warehouse receipts are 27,419 tons, a daily decrease of 308 tons and a daily decrease rate of 1.11%. LME copper inventory is 144,975 tons, a daily decrease of 400 tons and a daily decrease rate of 0.28% [33][35]. Aluminum - **Futures Data**: The latest prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of Shanghai aluminum futures (main contract, continuous contracts), LME aluminum, and alumina futures are provided. For example, the main contract of Shanghai aluminum is 20,705 yuan per ton, with a daily increase of 20 yuan and a daily increase rate of 0.1% [40]. - **Spot Data**: The latest prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of various aluminum spot prices are given. For example, the price of East China aluminum is 20,680 yuan per ton, with no daily change [52]. - **Inventory**: Shanghai aluminum warehouse receipts total 67,736 tons, a daily decrease of 1,224 tons and a daily decrease rate of 1.77%. LME aluminum inventory is 517,150 tons, a daily increase of 3,300 tons and a daily increase rate of 0.64% [61]. Zinc - **Futures Data**: The latest prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of Shanghai zinc futures (main contract, continuous contracts) and LME zinc are provided. The main contract of Shanghai zinc is 21,860 yuan per ton, with a daily increase of 15 yuan and a daily increase rate of 0.07% [66]. - **Spot Data**: The latest prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of zinc spot prices are given. For example, the average price of SMM 0 zinc is 21,820 yuan per ton, a daily decrease of 60 yuan and a daily decrease rate of 0.27% [71]. - **Inventory**: Shanghai zinc warehouse receipts total 57,357 tons, a daily increase of 744 tons and a daily increase rate of 1.31%. LME zinc inventory is 44,400 tons, a daily decrease of 1,375 tons and a daily decrease rate of 3% [76]. Nickel - **Futures Data**: The latest values,环比 differences, and环比 of Shanghai nickel futures (main contract, continuous contracts) and LME nickel are provided. The main contract of Shanghai nickel is 121,450 yuan per ton, with a环比 increase of 720 yuan and a环比 increase rate of 1% [81]. - **Downstream Situation**: Nickel - iron prices are firm, and stainless - steel prices are in a stalemate. The market is in a wait - and - see state before the holiday [80]. Tin - **Futures Data**: The latest prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of Shanghai tin futures (main contract, continuous contracts) and LME tin are provided. The main contract of Shanghai tin is 271,650 yuan per ton, with a daily increase of 1,770 yuan and a daily increase rate of 0.66% [96]. - **Spot Data**: The latest prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of tin spot prices are given. For example, the price of Shanghai Non - ferrous tin ingots is 271,400 yuan per ton, with a daily increase of 700 yuan and a daily increase rate of 0.26% [101]. - **Inventory**: The total tin warehouse receipts in the Shanghai Futures Exchange are 6,342 tons, a daily decrease of 76 tons and a daily decrease rate of 1.18%. LME tin inventory is 2,575 tons, a daily decrease of 5 tons and a daily decrease rate of 0.19% [103]. Lithium Carbonate - **Futures Data**: The closing prices, daily changes, and weekly changes of lithium carbonate futures (main contract, continuous contracts) are provided. The main contract of lithium carbonate futures closes at 72,880 yuan per ton, with a daily decrease of 780 yuan and a weekly increase of 200 yuan [108]. - **Spot Data**: The latest prices, daily changes, daily change rates, weekly changes, and weekly change rates of lithium spot prices are given. For example, the average price of SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate is 73,850 yuan per ton, with no daily change and a weekly increase of 700 yuan [110]. - **Inventory**: The warehouse receipts of Guangzhou Futures Exchange are 39,749, with a daily increase of 300 and a daily increase rate of 0.76% [114]. Silicon Industry Chain - **Spot Data**: The latest prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of industrial silicon spot prices are provided. For example, the price of East China 553 industrial silicon is 9,500 yuan per ton, with no daily change [117]. - **Futures Data**: The latest prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of industrial silicon futures (main contract, continuous contracts) are given. The main contract of industrial silicon is 9,020 yuan per ton, with a daily increase of 95 yuan and a daily increase rate of 1.06% [118].

黄金探底如期回升回踩多，原油弱势反弹继续空！ 9/22黄金原油参考思路 黄金回踩3674附近多，防守3666，目标看3690/3700，破位看3716/20上方，早盘突破3700可以顺势追涨看3716/20一线 原油反弹63.3附近空，防守64.1，看61.8/61下方 思路仅供参考，盈亏风险自担，投资有风险，入市需谨慎！ 随着整体大环境的宽松格局基调在上周的美联储利率决议中落下了帷幕，虽然也强调了对通胀的担忧，表示警惕，但是降息大势所 趋，所以市场整体的逻辑没有太大的变化，上周跟大家分享看好黄金二次探底之后继续走强，上周五回踩3632附近如期企稳之后走出 拉伸， 欧盘时段反弹3660附近小幅回踩到了3643附近然后在美盘二次拉高，晚间强势冲击到了3685附近，目前早间开盘延续强势格 局最高触及到了3696附近，基本是符合我们预期的走势，早盘而言关注3700关口再度突破情况，一旦突破可以顺势看延续，反之等待 亚欧盘回踩之后再接多看涨，不过分去追涨，是目前交易的核心原则，高位的风险我们一直在强调，如何规避需要大家实际执行，不 追涨，不恐惧，然后关注时间节点，近期走势基本都是时间循环原则！ 原油方面，石油供应继续 ...

来源：滚动播报 周五，美联储理事斯蒂芬・米兰表示，在本周美联储利率决议公布前，他仅与美国总统特朗普进行过短 暂交流，且未在投票立场上受到任何施压。 米兰在此次利率决议中投票反对降息25个基点，主张将降 息幅度扩大一倍（即降息50个基点）。他强调，自己的这一决定是独立作出的。 "他（特朗普）周二早 上给我打电话，只为表示祝贺，仅此而已。"米兰表示，"我们从未讨论过我该如何投票，也从未提及我 在美联储经济预测摘要中的'点阵图'立场。" ...

整体来看，美指美债收益率的反弹压制了黄金价格，黄金价格因而下跌。 美国国债收益率集体攀升，10年期国债收益率上升3.2个基点至4.108%，创下9月初以来首次连涨，并实 现一个月来最大双日涨幅；30年期收益率则上涨5个基点至4.724%。 日内收盘，沪金下跌0.41%，报收830.56元/克。 美元指数延续反弹走势，再度上涨0.4%至97.347，周四美联储决议公布后，美元指数一度跌至96.22的 2022年2月以来新低，但鲍威尔的非鸽派表态迅速扭转颓势。 期货公司观点 广发期货： 本次美联储利率决议市场解读偏中性对于影响基本计入，随着美元指数止跌回升，9月以来贵金属价格 持续快速突破并创新高后部分周期技术指标反映市场已经出现超买迹象，在"买预期卖事实"的逻辑下多 头驱动暂缓资金离场使贵金属回调。展望后市在美国就业市场下行风险增加的情况下，美联储政策路径 呈现"预期强化-独立性受挫"的双重特征持续压低美元指数和美债收益率，同时欧美国家政治和地缘局 势动荡使机构投资者对贵金属避险的配置需求增加带来价格中枢不断抬升，后续等待10月美联储会议酝 酿新的利多因素。短期黄金走势或转入高位震荡整理保持区间操作思路，可以在 ...

Group 1 - The current total holdings of the world's largest gold ETF, SPDR Gold Trust, stand at 975.66 tons, unchanged from the previous trading day [5] - On September 18, spot gold prices fell for the second consecutive day, reaching a low of $3628.43 per ounce and closing at $3644.27, down $15.52 or 0.42% [5] - Market analysts suggest that gold prices are reacting to the recent Federal Reserve interest rate decision, with prices hovering around the $3650 mark, significantly lower than the record high of $3707 reached after the Fed's policy statement [5] Group 2 - Recent economic data showed a significant drop in initial jobless claims in the U.S. to 231,000, the largest decline in nearly four years, which has led to renewed downward pressure on gold prices [6] - Analysts from ANZ Bank believe that gold may perform well at the beginning of the easing cycle, driven by demand for safe-haven assets amid complex geopolitical conditions [6] - Technical analysis indicates that if gold prices break below $3650, the next targets could be the September 11 low of $3613 and the psychological level of $3600 [6][7]

黄金市场投机情绪分析第二十四章 美联储降息后，向市场传递的主要信息有哪些 忙到现在才想起来今天对于美联储利率决议还没有文字分析，那就只好现在去补上了。凌晨两点市场公 布了美联储的利率决议，降息了25个基点。利率水平从4.5%-4.75%的区间下调到了4.25%-4.5%这个区 间。当然市场已经预期本次降息25个基点，在此之前我也跟大家明确的说了 2025.9.18星期四 中雨 撰稿人/金市大鲤 ...

北京时间周四凌晨两点，美联储如期宣布进行2025年的首次降息。 与市场预期一致，联邦公开市场委员会将联邦基金利率目标区间下调25个基点，调整至4.00%-4.25%。 （来源：美联储） 如同鲍威尔8月讲话那般，经严格审核的决议也通过措辞变化着重体现美国劳动力市场风险，同时也点出通胀上行的两难局面。 （来源：美联储决议对比） 与7月类似，9月决议也出现了反对票——周二刚来美联储兼职的白宫经济顾问米兰要求降息50个基点。 随政策决议一同发布的点阵图也显示，美联储官员们目前的中位预期是2025年还有两次各25个基点的降息。不出意外，点阵图上也出现了 刺眼的"白宫降息呼声"。 决议指出，近期指标显示，今年上半年经济活动的增长有所放缓。就业增长速度减慢，失业率小幅上升但仍处于低位。通胀有所上升，并 保持在相对较高的水平。委员会关注双重使命两方面的风险，并判断就业方面的下行风险有所增加。考虑到风险平衡的变化，委员会决定 将联邦基金利率目标区间下调25个基点。 （美联储官员对2025年底时的政策利率展望"点阵图"） 经济预期方面，较6月时的预期，美联储官员们整体预期GDP增速小幅抬高（2025年1.4%→1.6%、2026 ...

点击下方关注许亚鑫，加★星标★，充值鑫仰！ 晚上的直播课，我分别从"美联储票型与中东紧急峰会"，"降息的历史经验与金价新高"，"8月宏观数据与服务消费"，"中概互联与AI智能体"四个方面解 读了基本面的一些信息，并结合美联储，卡塔尔，美元，预防式降息，金银油，规上利润，零售，地产，消费，人民币，A股，港股等给出了接下来的布 局思路。 今夜，号称史上最"分裂"的一次美联储利率决议要来了。尽管市场普遍预期将降息25个基点，但在就业疲软、通胀仍高于目标以及政治压力加大的背景 下，美联储FOMC投票或现"四方分裂"—— | 美联储重启降息周期 | | --- | | 性质 | 人名 | 担任职务 | 最新立场 | 备注 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 杰罗姆·鲍威尔 (Jerome H. Powell) | 美联储主席 | 中间偏鹰 | 2026年5月主席 职位任满,但理 事职位到2028 | | | | | | | 菲利普·杰斐逊 (Philip N. Jefferson) | 美联储副主 席 | 鹰转鸽 | ...

Group 1: Gold Market Analysis - The price of spot gold has recently experienced significant fluctuations, reaching a historical peak of $3702.93 per ounce before settling at $3689.60, driven by expectations of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut and geopolitical risks [1][2] - The weakening of the US dollar, which fell by 0.74% to a low of 96.54, has provided additional support for gold prices, making gold cheaper for holders of other currencies [2][4] - Technical analysis indicates that gold is approaching the $3700 mark, with support levels identified at $3660-3653 and potential upward targets around $3710 and $3750 [4] Group 2: Oil Market Analysis - Brent crude oil futures have seen a slight decline to $68.46 per barrel, while WTI crude oil futures also dropped to $64.51 per barrel, amid concerns over potential supply disruptions due to geopolitical tensions [5][6] - The market is anticipating a Federal Reserve interest rate cut of 25 basis points, which is expected to stimulate economic activity and fuel demand [5] - Technical analysis suggests that oil prices are currently in a weak consolidation phase, with short-term upward trends expected, particularly if prices break above resistance levels of $66.0-67.0 [6]