Core Viewpoint - The article expresses a strong skepticism towards predictive work in both investment and corporate environments, arguing that the future is inherently unpredictable and that focusing on precise forecasts is often futile [1][2][18]. Group 1: Predictive Work in Investment and Corporate Settings - Predictive work relies heavily on analyzing past data, which can lead to a false sense of certainty about the future [2][8]. - Many employees are rewarded for their ability to provide detailed forecasts, regardless of their accuracy, which creates a culture that values appearance over substance [2][9]. - The article criticizes the tendency of firms to demand specific predictions, suggesting that this approach is counterproductive and often leads to incorrect conclusions [2][19]. Group 2: Personal Reflections on Work and Investment - The author reflects on the difference between being an investor, who takes personal responsibility for their financial decisions, and being an employee, who often must follow orders without question [3][18]. - There is a notion that the corporate environment often prioritizes emotional value and performance over genuine analytical insight [4][8]. - The article suggests that many individuals feel trapped in their corporate roles, leading to a disconnect between their professional responsibilities and personal beliefs about investment and risk [19][20]. Group 3: Broader Implications of Predictive Culture - The article highlights a broader societal issue where individuals are pressured to conform to a culture of prediction and certainty, which can stifle genuine insight and innovation [17][19]. - It points out that many people in the corporate world are aware of the absurdity of their predictive tasks but feel compelled to participate in the charade for job security [4][10]. - The disconnect between rational investment strategies and corporate predictive demands can lead to internal conflict for individuals who value analytical rigor [18][19].