随着美联储主席鲍威尔上周五在杰克逊霍尔全球央行年会上的鸽派演讲，引发了全球金融市场的积极反 响，眼下人们对美联储9月降息的预期无疑正空前高涨。 而若仔细算算日子，如果美联储真的在9月降息，那么距离其2024年12月的上次降息，其实将正好过去 九个月——这已经是一段不算短的政策空窗期了。那么，在历史上，当美联储暂停许久后重启降息，美 股通常会怎么走呢？ Carson Group首席市场策略师Ryan Detrick上周末在X平台发布的一张图，就对此做了一番行情数据汇 总： 如上图所示，自从1970年以来，美联储总共经历过11次在降息周期中暂停——"等待5至12个月"后再次 降息的案例。 在这些案例中，重启降息后1个月和3个月的美股表现，其实并不算优秀——标普500指数平均分别录得 了0.9%和1.3%的跌幅。 不过，如果把周期拉长到1年，则美股依然足以轻松取得不俗表现。Detrick在帖子中指出，在过去11次 美联储在重启降息前等待5至12个月的案例里，标普500指数在随后的1年中10次出现了上涨，平均涨幅 达到了12.9%。 尽管历次行情波动的具体原因不尽相同，但Detrick认为投资者心理可能是影响因素之一 ...

随着美联储主席鲍威尔上周五在杰克逊霍尔全球央行年会上的鸽派演讲，引发了全球金融市场的积极反响，眼下人们对美联储9月降息的预 期无疑正空前高涨。 而若仔细算算日子，如果美联储真的在9月降息，那么距离其2024年12月的上次降息，其实将正好过去九个月——这已经是一段不算短的 政策空窗期了。那么， 在历史上，当美联储暂停许久后重启降息，美股通常会怎么走呢？ Carson Group首席市场策略师Ryan Detrick上周末在X平台发布的一张图，就对此做了一番行情数据汇总： | | | | | S&P 500 Index Returns | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Date of Next Cut | Months Between Cuts | Next Month | Next 3 Months | Next 6 Months | Next Year | | 9/21/1970 | 5.4 | 2.1% | 10.1% | 22.8% | 21.7% | | 6261/61/9 | 5.9 | 0.0% | 63% | 7.6% | 14.2% | | ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent decline in gold prices to the 3350 level is attributed to two main factors: optimistic expectations regarding international trade and strong economic data [1][3][5]. Group 1: International Trade Impact - Recent trade negotiations among major economies, particularly between China and the U.S., have alleviated concerns about escalating trade tensions, leading to a more optimistic market sentiment [3][4]. - The recovery of China's economy has contributed to positive global economic recovery expectations, resulting in increased risk appetite among investors [3][4]. - As market sentiment becomes more optimistic, funds tend to flow towards risk assets rather than safe-haven assets like gold, contributing to the price decline [3][5]. Group 2: Economic Data Performance - Strong economic data from major economies, including positive U.S. non-farm payroll figures and signs of recovery in manufacturing and services, have bolstered confidence in global economic recovery [4][5]. - Economic performance in other regions, such as China's robust export and manufacturing data and the EU's gradual economic recovery, has further enhanced market risk appetite, diminishing gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset [4][5]. - Despite strong economic indicators, gold maintains some support due to ongoing uncertainties in the global economy, such as unresolved supply chain issues and geopolitical risks [5][6]. Group 3: Investor Psychology - Investor sentiment plays a crucial role in gold price fluctuations, with a shift towards risk assets occurring as confidence in economic recovery grows [5][6]. - The perception of gold as a safe-haven asset diminishes when economic recovery signals emerge, leading to a withdrawal of funds from gold [5][6]. - The interplay of market sentiment and economic data is reflected in the recent price adjustments of gold, indicating a temporary market reaction rather than a loss of value [6][7]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The future trajectory of gold prices will be influenced by the interplay of trade dynamics, economic data, investor sentiment, and policy expectations [7]. - Despite the current price retreat, gold's safe-haven attributes remain relevant due to ongoing geopolitical risks and uneven global economic recovery [7].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the extensive experience of a partner at RIA Advisors, highlighting a contrarian approach to investment analysis and commentary on market and economic trends [1]. Group 1: Company Overview - RIA Advisors is based in Houston, Texas, and focuses on investment analysis, research, and commentary [1]. - The company publishes a weekly subscriber-based newsletter, RIA Pro, which covers economic, political, and market topics relevant to investors [1]. Group 2: Industry Insights - The article emphasizes the importance of understanding investor psychology and macroeconomic views in the investment landscape [1]. - The commentary provided by the company is aimed at both individual and professional investors, indicating a broad target audience [1].