围绕人工智能的资本热潮存在泡沫吗？ 国际货币基金组织（IMF）与英国央行（Bank of England）几乎同时向全球投资者发出罕见警示：人工 智能（AI）带来的资本热潮正推动科技股估值快速攀升，市场情绪高涨，但脆弱性和风险也在累积。 两家机构均认为，美股的估值水平和结构性集中度正接近历史高位，一旦预期逆转，可能引发剧烈调 整。 乐观的估值与潜藏的风险 英国央行的金融政策委员会（FPC）也表达了类似担忧。其最新季度报告称，美国股票市场"在若干指 标上显示估值过高（appear stretched）"，尤其是集中在AI相关科技公司。 报告称，标普500指数中前五大科技企业——苹果、微软、谷歌母公司Alphabet、亚马逊与英伟达—— 合计市值占比约30%，为50年来最高水平；而这种高度集中"使市场在AI预期降温时特别容易受到冲 击。 过去一年，美股上涨主要由AI概念推动。英伟达的股价在过去半年近乎翻番，微软、亚马逊和谷歌母 公司市值屡创新高，纳指屡创历史新高。 彭博数据显示，标普500的前瞻市盈率（Forward PE Ratio）约为22至23倍，高于长期平均水平约17倍。 分析人士称，与互联网泡沫时期类似 ...

智通财经APP获悉，对冲基金公司桥水基金(Bridgewater Associates)创始人瑞·达利欧(Ray Dalio)表示，黄 金"无疑"是比美元更可靠的避险资产;当前黄金创下历史新高的涨势，与上世纪70年代的行情相似，当 时在高通胀与经济动荡的双重背景下，金价曾大幅飙升。 美东时间周二，他在康涅狄格州格林威治经济论坛(Greenwich Economic Forum)上作出了上述表态，当 时他被问及是否认同城堡投资(Citadel)肯·格里芬(Ken Griffin)的观点，即黄金上涨反映出市场对美元的 担忧。 达利欧指出，"黄金是非常优质的投资组合分散工具。""因此，若仅从战略资产配置组合的角度考量， 最优配置方案或许是将投资组合的15%左右投入黄金。" 自7月底以来，美国联邦政府停摆、以及"通胀仍处高位但美联储或持续降息"的市场预期，已推动金价 上涨超20%，目前约为每盎司4000美元。 与此同时，今年美元对所有主要货币均出现贬值——此前，美国总统唐纳德·特朗普引发的不确定性， 已导致美元遭遇自上世纪70年代(美国放弃金本位制后不久)以来的最大幅度下跌。 在国际投资方面，达利欧表示仍看好中国市场 ...

Let's welcome in Liz Thomas, SoFi's head of investment strategy. She's with me here at Post9 as you see. Welcome back.>> Thank you. >> All right. So, that's the kind of market we're in right now where you've gotten a lot of commentary from a lot of different people um about where we are, whether we have a bubble.How do you feel about things. >> I saw a tweet on my way here that said there's a bubble in people talking about bubbles. >> Yeah, that was what Edard Denny said yesterday.There's a bubble in bubble ...

Economic Outlook - The economy is experiencing slower growth and rising inflation, leading to a cloudier outlook as government data is lacking [3][11] - There is a disconnect between market performance and underlying economic fundamentals, with concerns about market euphoria amidst deteriorating conditions [4][12] Market Dynamics - The majority of market investments are coming from upper-income individuals who are benefiting from the current economic conditions, creating a structural imbalance [5][6] - Investors are hesitant to withdraw funds due to significant embedded capital gains, which may lead to a delayed market reaction to economic shocks [6][7] Fiscal Stimulus and Consumer Behavior - Potential fiscal measures, such as taxpayer refund checks, could temporarily boost consumption but may also exacerbate inflation [14][15] - The anticipated tax refund season in early 2026 may provide a short-term economic boost, but it is characterized as a temporary "sugar rush" rather than sustainable growth [10][11] Investment Strategy - The equity market may appear attractive due to stable economic growth and easier monetary policy, but valuations are becoming increasingly stretched [18][19] - Investors are advised to diversify their portfolios as mega-cap US equities may not be the best investment option given the current pricing dynamics [19][20]

1、成交量异常放大成交量持续高位：如果市场成交量在较长时间内持续处于高位，尤其是连续多日成交额创历史新高，这可能是市场过热的信 号。例如，A股市场连续多日成交额突破2万亿元，表明市场交易活跃度极高。换手率过高：换手率是指在一定时间内市场中股票转手买卖的频 率。如果换手率持续高于历史平均水平，尤其是超过3%甚至更高，可能表明市场投机情绪浓厚。 2、价格快速上涨指数快速上升：主要市场指数在短时间内出现大幅上涨，尤其是连续多个交易日上涨，且涨幅较大。例如，上证指数在短时间内 上涨超过10%甚至更高。个股普遍上涨：不仅大盘股上涨，中小盘股也普遍上涨，且涨幅显著。这种普遍上涨的现象可能表明市场情绪过于乐 观，投资者普遍存在追涨心理。 3、估值过高市盈率（PE）过高：市盈率是衡量股票价格与公司盈利能力的比率。如果市场整体市盈率或某些板块的市盈率远高于历史平均水平， 可能表明市场估值过高。例如，科技股的市盈率超过50倍甚至更高，而历史平均水平可能在30倍左右。市净率（PB）过高：市净率是股票价格与 公司净资产的比率。如果市净率远高于历史平均水平，也可能表明市场估值过高。例如，某些行业的市净率超过3倍，而历史平均水平可能在2 ...

全球正陷入一场史无前例的金融狂热，FOMO情绪主导，AI驱动的指数狂飙，但连传统避险资产黄金都 已变身投机工具。 美联储的混乱政策加剧了失衡。这不是牛市，而是所有风险信号集体尖叫的危险游戏，泡沫随时可能破 裂，最终的结局将是何等惨烈？ AI是引擎还是泡沫 而人工智能，毫无疑问是点燃这轮行情的绝对主角，以至于任何风吹草动都能让市场情绪沸腾，比如， 当英伟达宣布计划豪掷千亿美元，帮助OpenAI打造一个超级数据中心时，这个消息本身就成了一剂强 心针，不仅直接推高了公司股价，更让整个市场的乐观情绪达到了顶点。 这种叙事的力量，让资金疯狂涌入。从英伟达、微软这些龙头企业发布的强劲业绩，到华尔街分析师们 给出的创纪录盈利预测，一切看起来都那么完美。但问题也恰恰出在这里，"完美"往往意味着脆弱。 数据显示，那些不足100股的零散交易，在第三季度竟然占到了美股总交易量的66%，这个比例在2019 年还仅仅是31%。这说明，从机构到散户，几乎所有人都挤在了同一条船上。这种高度集中的状态，极 大地增加了系统的脆弱性，一旦故事的某个环节出现裂痕，踩踏式的平仓将是迅速且猛烈的。 黄金也疯了 如果说AI泡沫还只是局部风险，那么接下来 ...

动图由豆包AI「照片动起来」生成 美联储正着手降息，全球主要资产价格高歌猛进。 隔夜，英伟达对OpenAI的巨额投资再次引爆AI热潮，推动美国三大股指接连刷新高点。其中， 标准普尔500指数今年第28次创下新高。 COMEX黄金价格在周一收盘在3775.10美元，创下 年内第36个收盘历史新高 ，经通胀调整后的黄金价格已超过1980年1月的高点。 今年以来，金价累计涨幅已达 约43%。 风险资产与避险资产同步攀升至历史高点 ， 这种矛盾且罕见局面 ，让投资者怀疑市场"完美定价"了吗？是否已经充分反映所有利好，未来涨不动了？ 市场远未"完美定价"， 还要"涨涨涨"？ 美国银行策略师Michael Hartnett指出，关税削减、税收削减和利率削减共同构成了"高热运行"（run-it-hot）的政策环境，并为 经济和股市提供了隐性的"大到不能 倒"担保。尽管泡沫迹象明显，但可能尚未见顶。 德意志银行9月22日发布的研报认为， 市场远未达到"完美定价"的状态 ，认为"市场几乎没有进一步上涨空间的观点是错误的"。反而充斥着对未来风险的担忧， 但这也为市场潜在的上涨提供了空间。 比如，黄金价格创历史新高、持续的通胀和关 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights that traditional hardware companies are experiencing significant stock price increases due to the AI infrastructure investment wave, raising questions about whether this is a genuine market trend or a bubble before a potential crash [1][2]. - Seagate Technology has surged by 156% this year, becoming the best-performing stock in the S&P 500, while Western Digital and Micron Technology have also seen substantial gains of 137% and 93%, respectively [1][2]. - Major tech companies are investing hundreds of billions of dollars annually in semiconductors, networking equipment, and data center power supplies to support AI workloads, benefiting traditional storage manufacturers [1][2]. Group 2 - Despite the stock price surges, the valuations of Seagate, Western Digital, and Micron remain relatively reasonable, with price-to-earnings ratios around 10 times, compared to the S&P 500's expected P/E ratio of 23 times [2]. - Benchmark Co. analyst Mark Miller raised Seagate's target price to $250, indicating a potential upside of over 13% from its recent closing price, citing strong product demand as a key factor [3]. - Concerns about a market bubble are growing, as the rapid stock price increases for these companies exceed analyst expectations, with Seagate trading over 20% above the average target price [4]. Group 3 - The AI hype is also driving stock price increases in other traditional sectors, such as Vistra Corp, which has risen by 53% this year, and Broadcom, which has reached a market capitalization of $1.6 trillion [4]. - Oracle has become the tenth largest company in the S&P 500 due to demand for cloud computing services, with a single-day stock price surge of 36% following its earnings report [5]. - There are warnings that the current AI excitement may be overhyped, similar to the internet bubble, with actual application developments expected to take longer than anticipated [5].

Core Viewpoint - The Bank of Japan has decided to maintain interest rates but unexpectedly announced the initiation of ETF sales, leading to a decline in Asian stock markets and halting the record global stock rally [1][2]. Group 1: Bank of Japan's Actions - The Bank of Japan's announcement to start an ETF selling plan is reminiscent of the early 2000s when it disposed of stocks purchased from banks [2]. - Despite maintaining interest rates, the asset sale plan has put immediate pressure on the Japanese market, causing the Nikkei 225 index to lose all earlier gains [2]. - The two-year Japanese government bond yield has risen to its highest level since 2008, indicating traders are pricing in a potential interest rate hike in October [2]. Group 2: Market Reactions - The U.S. stock market saw Intel drop over 2%, while FedEx rose over 5% due to positive first-quarter earnings and future growth projections [4]. - European stock indices opened higher, with Germany's DAX30 up 0.24%, the UK's FTSE 100 up 0.03%, and France's CAC40 up 0.26% [4]. - The U.S. dollar index has rebounded from a low of 96.22 to 97.46, influenced by market interpretations of Federal Reserve policies [2][3]. Group 3: Economic Indicators - Initial jobless claims in the U.S. decreased last week, reversing the previous week's increase, which supported the rise of the dollar and U.S. Treasury yields [3]. - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield increased by 2 basis points to 4.131% [4][7]. - The Indian rupee faced pressure, nearing historical lows, with a trading rate of 88.30 against the dollar [4].

Market Movements - US stock index futures are all up ahead of the market opening, with Dow futures up 0.02%, S&P 500 futures up 0.18%, and Nasdaq futures up 0.22% [1] - European indices are down, with Germany's DAX down 0.54%, UK's FTSE 100 down 0.26%, France's CAC 40 down 0.15%, and the Euro Stoxx 50 down 0.16% [2][3] - WTI crude oil is up 0.54% at $63.64 per barrel, while Brent crude oil is up 0.34% at $67.67 per barrel [3][4] Economic Data - US retail sales for August are expected to show a month-on-month increase of 0.2%, with core retail sales (excluding autos and gas) expected to rise by 0.4%, indicating consumer spending may be a bright spot despite overall economic weakness [4] Company News - Oracle (ORCL.US) shares are up over 5% in pre-market trading as it is reported to be participating in a consortium to maintain TikTok's operations in the US [7] - Tesla (TSLA.US) is under investigation by the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration regarding potential issues with the electronic door handles of certain Model Y vehicles [8] - Nvidia's (NVDA.US) new RTX6000D chip for the Chinese market is facing low demand, with major companies showing little interest due to high pricing and perceived lack of value [8] - TSMC (TSM.US) has seen its market share in the semiconductor foundry market rise to 38% in Q2 2025, driven by strong AI demand and Chinese subsidies [9] - Google's (GOOGL.US) proposal to divest part of its advertising technology business has been rejected by the Justice Department, which is seeking a complete separation of its AdX platform [9] - Corteva (CTVA.US) is reportedly evaluating a potential split of its seed and pesticide businesses, but this move has raised concerns among Wall Street analysts [10] - Webtoon (WBTN.US) shares surged over 39% in pre-market trading after Disney (DIS.US) announced a partnership to develop a digital platform for classic comic content [10]