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名创优品(09896.HK):3Q25运营如期好转 期待中国提质和海外旺季
Ge Long Hui· 2025-11-24 20:16
Core Insights - The company's Q3 2025 performance met expectations with a revenue increase of 28% to 5.8 billion yuan and an adjusted net profit increase of 12% to 770 million yuan [1][2] Group 1: Domestic Business Performance - Miniso's domestic revenue grew by 19% to 2.9 billion yuan, driven by a focus on "super categories, super stores, and super marketing," with toys showing strong performance and 16 new IP artist signings [1] - Offline revenue increased by 16% to 2.6 billion yuan, with same-store sales growth in the high single digits and 102 new stores opened during the quarter [1] - Online revenue surged by 58% to 340 million yuan, indicating robust e-commerce growth [1] Group 2: TOPTOY Performance - TOPTOY's revenue skyrocketed by 111% to 580 million yuan, with strong performance from proprietary IP new products and same-store sales growth in the mid-single digits, alongside 14 new store openings [1] Group 3: International Market Development - Miniso's overseas revenue rose by 28% to 2.3 billion yuan, with the U.S. market seeing over 65% revenue growth [1] - The company is optimizing overseas inventory and enhancing local operational capabilities, with same-store sales growth in the low single digits in key markets like the U.S. and Canada, and 117 new stores opened internationally [1] - Management plans to replicate successful strategies from the U.S. and China in Southeast Asia for sustainable long-term growth [1] Group 4: Financial Metrics and Forecasts - Gross margin slightly decreased by 0.2 percentage points due to product mix adjustments, while excluding share-based payment expenses, the sales and management expense ratio increased by 1.4 percentage points [2] - Adjusted net profit for 2025 is projected to remain at 2.9 billion yuan, with a 4% downward revision for 2026 to 3.6 billion yuan, maintaining a target price adjustment of 12%/11% to 50.18 HKD/26.08 USD, reflecting a 20x 2025 non-IFRS P/E ratio [2]