2026 年 04 月 01 日 顾向君 H70420@capitalcom.tw 目标价(港币) 36 公司基本资讯 | 产业别 | | | 商贸零售 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | H 股价(2026/03/31) | | | | 30.76 | | 恒生指数(2026/03/31) | | | 24,788.1 | | | 股价 12 个月高/低 | | | 50.4/28.71 | | | 总发行股数(百万) | | | 1,238.96 | | | H 股数(百万) | | | 1,238.96 | | | H 市值(亿元) | | | | 381.10 | | 主要股东 | | 杨云云(63.1%) | | | | 每股净值(元) | | | | 8.58 | | 股价/账面净值 | | | | 3.58 | | 一个月 | | 三个月 | | 一年 | | 股价涨跌(%) | -7.90% | -16.64% -11.11% | | | 近期评等 | 出刊日期 | 前日收盘 | 评等 | | --- | --- | --- | | 2025-12-02 ...

2026 年 04 月 01 日 顾向君 H70420@capitalcom.tw 目标价(港币) 36 C h i n a R e s e a r c h D e p t . 名创优品(09896.HK) BUY 买进 公司基本资讯 | 产业别 | | | 商贸零售 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | H 股价(2026/03/31) | | | | 30.76 | | 恒生指数(2026/03/31) | | | 24,788.1 | | | 股价 12 个月高/低 | | | 50.4/28.71 | | | 总发行股数(百万) | | | 1,238.96 | | | H 股数(百万) | | | 1,238.96 | | | H 市值(亿元) | | | | 381.10 | | 主要股东 | | 杨云云(63.1%) | | | | 每股净值(元) | | | | 8.58 | | 股价/账面净值 | | | | 3.58 | | 一个月 | | 三个月 | | 一年 | | 股价涨跌(%) | -7.90% | -16.64% -11.11% | | | ...

Core Viewpoint - Cathay Securities has downgraded Miniso's adjusted net profit forecasts for 2025-2027 to RMB 2.998 billion, 3.474 billion, and 4.179 billion, reflecting a decrease of RMB 0.24 billion, 0.68 billion, and 0.01 billion respectively, due to ongoing investments in overseas direct stores [1] Group 1: Performance Overview - In Q3 2025, Miniso achieved revenue of RMB 5.797 billion, representing a year-on-year increase of 28.2%, with domestic revenue growing by 19.3% and international business by 27.7%, while TopToy saw a remarkable growth of 111.5% [2] - The net profit attributable to shareholders was RMB 441 million, down 31.4%, while adjusted net profit was RMB 767 million, up 11.7%, and adjusted EBITDA reached RMB 1.354 billion, an increase of 18.8% [2] Group 2: Store Performance and Expansion - Both domestic and international same-store sales continued to show improvement, with domestic revenue exceeding expectations at +19.3% compared to a forecast of high double-digit growth, and domestic same-store sales up by 10% against expectations of high single-digit growth [3] - In Q3 2025, the company added 233 new stores (102 domestic, 117 international, and 14 TopToy), bringing the total to 8,138 stores (4,407 domestic, 3,424 international, and 307 TopToy) [3] - The acceleration in store openings reflects the company's strategic focus on higher-quality large stores while balancing store count and same-store metrics, indicating positive adjustments in store types and categories [3] Group 3: Cost Structure and Strategic Initiatives - The gross margin for Q3 2025 was 44.7%, a decrease of 0.2 percentage points year-on-year but an increase of 0.4 percentage points quarter-on-quarter, with rising sales expense ratios primarily due to investments in overseas direct stores [4] - The sales expense ratio has shown a narrowing trend, indicating improved efficiency in the use of sales expenses, with Q1 showing a year-on-year increase of 4.8 percentage points, Q2 at 3.2 percentage points, and Q3 at 1.4 percentage points [4] - The acceleration in store openings amidst same-store improvements suggests that the company's adjustments in domestic stores are in a positive cycle, which is expected to significantly boost valuation [4]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a potential upside in the stock price [7][3]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of approximately RMB 15.2 billion for the first three quarters of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 23.7%. However, the net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 25.7% to RMB 1.35 billion, while adjusted net profit increased by 6% to RMB 2.05 billion [8]. - In Q3, the company achieved a revenue of RMB 5.8 billion, a year-on-year increase of 28.2%, but the net profit attributable to shareholders fell by 31.4% to RMB 440 million. Adjusted net profit grew by 11.7% to RMB 770 million [8]. - The company’s gross margin for Q3 was 44.7%, a slight decline of 0.2 percentage points year-on-year. The overall expense ratio increased by 5.32 percentage points to 32.4% due to higher operating costs, particularly in direct store investments and marketing expenses [11]. - The company is expected to achieve net profits of RMB 1.93 billion, RMB 2.62 billion, and RMB 3.16 billion for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with corresponding EPS of RMB 1.56, RMB 2.12, and RMB 2.55 [11][13]. Summary by Relevant Sections Company Overview - The company operates primarily in the retail sector, with a market capitalization of approximately RMB 34.06 billion and a share price of HKD 38.54 as of December 1, 2025 [2]. Recent Performance - The company has shown a strong performance in its domestic and international operations, with notable revenue growth in both segments. The number of stores has increased significantly, with 4,407 stores in China and 3,424 stores overseas [11]. Financial Projections - The financial outlook indicates a decrease in net profit for 2025, followed by growth in subsequent years. The adjusted profit forecasts have been revised downwards due to the impact of acquisitions and operational costs [11][13]. Market Position - The company maintains a strong market position with a significant share of its revenue coming from its flagship brand, MINISO, which accounts for 90% of its product mix [4]. Valuation Metrics - The current price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios for the forecasted years are 22x for 2025, 17x for 2026, and 14x for 2027, indicating a favorable valuation compared to historical performance [13].

增收不增利，或是名创优品(09896)转型升级路上不得不吞咽的"苦果"。 11月21日，名创优品发布2025年前三季度业绩报告。财报显示，前三季度，公司实现收入151.9亿元， 同比增长23.68%;期内利润13.49亿元，同比减少26.1%。第三季度，公司收入57.97亿元，同比增长 28.17%;期内利润4.43亿元，同比减少31.64%。 不论是单季度，还是前三个季度，名创优品均是增收不增利的表现，这意味着公司全球化扩张以及大店 战略仍未产生正反馈。 当然，名创优品大刀阔斧战略转型也付出了不小的"代价"——期内成本增长明显，进一步蚕食公司利 润。 据财报披露，2025年第三季度，名创优品的销售成本为32.07亿元，同比增长28.6%;销售及分销开支14.3 亿元，同比增长43.5%;一般及行政开支3.44亿元，同比增长45.6%。对此，公司表示，销售及分销开支 同比增长主要归因于公司为推动业务未来发展而对直营门店的投资，尤其是美国市场等战略性海外市 场。 经营成本的增长，显然对公司盈利能力造成一定影响。第三季度，名创优品毛利率同比下降0.2pct至 44.7%，进而导致公司业绩增收不增利。 或许原因对名 ...

Core Insights - The company's Q3 2025 performance met expectations with a revenue increase of 28% to 5.8 billion yuan and an adjusted net profit increase of 12% to 770 million yuan [1][2] Group 1: Domestic Business Performance - Miniso's domestic revenue grew by 19% to 2.9 billion yuan, driven by a focus on "super categories, super stores, and super marketing," with toys showing strong performance and 16 new IP artist signings [1] - Offline revenue increased by 16% to 2.6 billion yuan, with same-store sales growth in the high single digits and 102 new stores opened during the quarter [1] - Online revenue surged by 58% to 340 million yuan, indicating robust e-commerce growth [1] Group 2: TOPTOY Performance - TOPTOY's revenue skyrocketed by 111% to 580 million yuan, with strong performance from proprietary IP new products and same-store sales growth in the mid-single digits, alongside 14 new store openings [1] Group 3: International Market Development - Miniso's overseas revenue rose by 28% to 2.3 billion yuan, with the U.S. market seeing over 65% revenue growth [1] - The company is optimizing overseas inventory and enhancing local operational capabilities, with same-store sales growth in the low single digits in key markets like the U.S. and Canada, and 117 new stores opened internationally [1] - Management plans to replicate successful strategies from the U.S. and China in Southeast Asia for sustainable long-term growth [1] Group 4: Financial Metrics and Forecasts - Gross margin slightly decreased by 0.2 percentage points due to product mix adjustments, while excluding share-based payment expenses, the sales and management expense ratio increased by 1.4 percentage points [2] - Adjusted net profit for 2025 is projected to remain at 2.9 billion yuan, with a 4% downward revision for 2026 to 3.6 billion yuan, maintaining a target price adjustment of 12%/11% to 50.18 HKD/26.08 USD, reflecting a 20x 2025 non-IFRS P/E ratio [2]

名创优品(09896)再跌超6%，截至发稿，跌6.48%，报36.68港元，成交额1.88亿港元。 中金表示，名创优品三季度毛利率同比微降0.2ppt，主要因产品结构调整。股份支付薪酬开支1.8亿元， 主要与TOPTOY股权激励相关，剔除该项后销售和管理费用率同比+1.4ppt/-0.3ppt，增幅如期收窄，海 外直营业务经营利润率同增低单位数。由于永辉收购事项及发行股票挂钩证券，期内净财务费用1.0亿 元，分占永辉亏损1.5亿元，其他收益0.7亿元，剔除相关影响后，经调整净利润同增12%至7.7亿元。 消息面上，名创优品近日公布第三季度业绩，期内实现营收57.97亿元，同比增长28.2%，超过25%至 28%指引范围的上限。归属母公司的净利润为4.41亿元，相比去年同期的6.42亿元下滑超30%。 ...

中金表示，名创优品三季度毛利率同比微降0.2ppt，主要因产品结构调整。股份支付薪酬开支1.8亿元， 主要与TOPTOY股权激励相关，剔除该项后销售和管理费用率同比+1.4ppt/-0.3ppt，增幅如期收窄，海 外直营业务经营利润率同增低单位数。由于永辉收购事项及发行股票挂钩证券，期内净财务费用1.0亿 元，分占永辉亏损1.5亿元，其他收益0.7亿元，剔除相关影响后，经调整净利润同增12%至7.7亿元。 消息面上，名创优品近日公布第三季度业绩，期内实现营收57.97亿元，同比增长28.2%，超过25%至 28%指引范围的上限。归属母公司的净利润为4.41亿元，相比去年同期的6.42亿元下滑超30%。 智通财经APP获悉，名创优品(09896)再跌超6%，截至发稿，跌6.48%，报36.68港元，成交额1.88亿港 元。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The company is optimistic about Miniso's (09896) refined operations and continuous efficiency improvements in both domestic and international markets, with management projecting a 25-30% year-on-year revenue growth in Q4 2025, and low double-digit same-store sales growth in both China and the U.S. [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - In Q3 2025, the company's revenue increased by 28% to 5.8 billion yuan, and adjusted net profit rose by 12% to 770 million yuan, aligning with expectations [2] - The adjusted net profit forecast for 2025 is maintained at 2.9 billion yuan, while the 2026 forecast is lowered by 4% to 3.6 billion yuan [1] Group 2: Domestic Business Performance - Domestic revenue for Miniso grew by 19% to 2.9 billion yuan in Q3 2025, with a focus on "super categories, super stores, and super marketing," particularly in the toy segment [3] - Offline revenue increased by 16% to 2.6 billion yuan, with same-store sales growth in the high single digits, and 102 new stores opened during the quarter [3] - Online revenue surged by 58% to 340 million yuan, while TOPTOY's revenue skyrocketed by 111% to 580 million yuan, with 14 new stores opened [3] Group 3: International Market Performance - Overseas revenue rose by 28% to 2.3 billion yuan, with the U.S. market seeing over 65% growth [4] - The company is enhancing local operational capabilities and plans to replicate successful strategies from the U.S. and China in Southeast Asia for sustainable long-term growth [4] Group 4: Cost Management - The gross margin slightly decreased by 0.2 percentage points due to product mix adjustments, while excluding share-based compensation expenses, the pressure on costs is easing as expected [5] - The net financial expenses for the quarter were 100 million yuan, influenced by the acquisition of Yonghui and stock-linked securities, with adjusted net profit increasing by 12% to 770 million yuan after excluding related impacts [5]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Miniso (9896.HK) is not explicitly stated in the provided documents, but the report indicates a positive outlook based on strong performance metrics and growth potential. Core Insights - Miniso reported a revenue of 15.19 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, representing a year-over-year increase of 23.7%. The adjusted net profit for the same period was 2.046 billion yuan, with an adjusted net profit margin of 13.5% [1][2] - The company's same-store sales growth in China reached low double-digit levels in October 2025, indicating a strong recovery and growth trajectory [2] - The TOP TOY segment showed exceptional performance with a revenue increase of 87.9% year-over-year, contributing significantly to overall growth [1][2] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For Q3 2025, Miniso achieved a revenue of 5.797 billion yuan, a year-over-year increase of 28.2%. Domestic revenue was 2.909 billion yuan (yoy +19.3%), while overseas revenue was 2.312 billion yuan (yoy +27.7%). TOP TOY's Q3 revenue was 575 million yuan (yoy +111.4%) [2] - The adjusted operating profit margin for Q3 was 17.6%, showing a narrowing decline of 2.1 percentage points, indicating improved profitability [3] Store Expansion - As of the end of Q3 2025, Miniso had a total of 8,138 stores globally, with 4,407 in China and 3,424 overseas. The company opened 718 new stores year-over-year, with 75.7% of new openings in overseas markets [3] Profit Forecast - The forecast for net profit attributable to the parent company for 2025-2027 is 2.703 billion yuan, 3.438 billion yuan, and 4.232 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 16.4X, 12.9X, and 10.5X [4][6]