Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the contrasting performance of Pop Mart and Miniso in the new consumption sector, highlighting Pop Mart's strong growth driven by its IP strategy, while Miniso faces challenges in its business model transformation [2][12][25]. Group 1: Pop Mart's Performance - Since August, Pop Mart's stock price has increased by 37%, with a market capitalization exceeding 400 billion yuan [3]. - Pop Mart's recent mini LABUBU release sold 300,000 units in just one minute, showcasing its strong consumer demand [4]. - In the first half of 2025, Pop Mart achieved revenue of 13.876 billion yuan, 1.5 times that of Miniso, with a year-on-year growth of 204.4% [27]. Group 2: Miniso's Challenges - Miniso's stock has experienced significant volatility, with a 20% drop following its 2024 annual performance release and a subsequent rise of over 20% after its 2025 first-half results [7][8]. - For the first half of 2025, Miniso reported revenue of 9.393 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 21.1%, but its net profit decreased by nearly 20% [14]. - Miniso's market capitalization is still below 60 billion HKD, with a valuation of only 22 times earnings, indicating a lack of investor enthusiasm [10]. Group 3: IP Strategy Comparison - The disparity between Pop Mart and Miniso largely stems from their approaches to IP. Pop Mart has successfully integrated IP into its business model, while Miniso struggles to replicate this success [12][40]. - In the first half of 2025, Pop Mart's gross margin was 70.3%, significantly higher than Miniso's 44.3% [28]. - Pop Mart's revenue from self-developed products accounted for 99.1%, with 88.1% coming from artist IP, indicating a strong reliance on proprietary IP for revenue generation [29]. Group 4: Miniso's Growth Strategy - Miniso has expanded its overseas presence significantly, opening 554 new stores in international markets, nearly three times the number of new stores opened in mainland China [16][18]. - Despite the rapid expansion, Miniso faces high operational costs in overseas markets, leading to low same-store sales growth rates [20][21]. - The company is exploring ways to leverage IP to enhance its store offerings and drive growth, but it remains to be seen if it can effectively transform its business model [25][54]. Group 5: Future Outlook - The article suggests that Miniso's future growth may depend on its ability to develop and leverage its own IP, which could enhance its product offerings and market position [54][60]. - As the global market for Chinese cultural products expands, there is potential for significant growth in the IP economy, which could benefit companies like Miniso if they adapt successfully [60].

Core Viewpoint - The company's Q2 2025 performance exceeded expectations, driven by strong domestic revenue growth and impressive overseas performance, particularly in the U.S. market [1][2]. Financial Performance - Q2 2025 revenue increased by 23% year-on-year to 5 billion yuan, while adjusted net profit rose by 11% to 690 million yuan, outperforming expectations [1]. - The company declared an interim dividend of $0.0724 per share, corresponding to a payout ratio of approximately 50% of adjusted net profit [1]. - Gross margin improved by 0.3 percentage points to 44%, benefiting from a higher proportion of overseas business and improved margins in the TOPTOY segment [2]. Business Segments - Domestic same-store sales turned positive with a 14% increase in revenue to 2.6 billion yuan, despite a high base, while online sales grew by 31% to 270 million yuan [1]. - Overseas revenue increased by 29% to 1.9 billion yuan, contributing 43% to total revenue, with U.S. revenue surging by 80% [1]. - TOPTOY's revenue grew by 87% to 400 million yuan, with a net increase of 13 stores, maintaining rapid growth [1]. Strategic Initiatives - The company is investing in direct sales and increasing sales expenses to support long-term growth, particularly in strategic overseas markets [2]. - The IP strategy and large store model are showing positive results, with 11 MINISO LAND stores and over 200 flagship stores established in China [2]. - The U.S. channel is gradually improving, with new stores achieving 1.5 times the efficiency of older stores and nearly 30% higher sales per square meter [2]. Future Outlook - Management expects Q3 2025 performance to maintain accelerated growth, raising the full-year guidance to a revenue increase of approximately 25% [3]. - Adjusted net profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026 have been raised by 8% and 6% to 2.9 billion yuan and 3.7 billion yuan, respectively [3]. - The target prices for Hong Kong and U.S. stocks have been increased by 24% to 52.45 HKD and 27.07 USD, respectively, reflecting a 20 times 2025 non-IFRS P/E ratio [3].

中金发布研报称，因名创优品(09896)持续提升的经营表现，上调2025/26年经调整净利润预测8%/6%至 29/37亿元，当前港股对应15倍2025年non-IFRS P/E，美股对应16倍，维持跑赢行业评级，考虑行业估值 有所提升，上调港/美股目标价24%至52.45港元/27.07美元，对应20倍2025年non-IFRS P/E，分别有 34%/30%上行空间。管理层预计3Q25业绩有望保持加速增长势头，上修全年指引至收入同比增长约 25%，经调整经营利润36.5-38.5亿元。该行看好公司同店的持续好转。 中金主要观点如下： 2Q25业绩好于该行预期 公司2Q25收入同比增长23%至50亿元，经调整净利润同比增长11%至6.9亿元，业绩好于该行预期，主 要得益于国内业务超预期的收入增长。公司宣派中期股息0.0724美元/股，对应派息率约50%(经调整净 利润)。 名创国内同店高基数下同比转正，美国业务表现突出 2Q25名创优品国内收入同增14%至26亿元，其中线下收入同增12%至24亿元，同店在较高基数下同增低 单位数，实现同比转正，门店环比净增30家。线上收入同增31%至2.7亿元。海外收入同增 ...

IP战略及大店模式成效继续显现 中金主要观点如下： 名创国内同店高基数下同比转正，美国业务表现突出 2Q25名创优品国内收入同增14%至26亿元，其中线下收入同增12%至24亿元，同店在较高基数下同增低 单位数，实现同比转正，门店环比净增30家。线上收入同增31%至2.7亿元。海外收入同增29%至19亿 元，贡献名创业务收入的43%，重点市场美国收入同增80%。总门店数季内增加94家，同店改善至同比 低单位数下滑，欧洲/北美市场同店实现中高单位数同比增长。TOPTOY业务收入同增87%至4.0亿元， 门店数量净增13家至293家，保持高速增长。 直营业务投入增加销售费用，经调整净利润恢复增长 2Q25毛利率同增0.3ppt至44%，主要受益于高毛利率的海外业务占比提升及TOPTOY毛利改善。销售费 用率同增2.9ppt，主要因公司投资直营门店，特别是美国等战略性海外市场，以追求长期增长。管理费 用率同降0.4ppt。其他收益0.8亿元(vs. 2Q24 0.3亿元)，由于发行股票挂钩证券及收购永辉借款产生利息 费用，及租赁负债利息开支增加，净财务费用季内增加至0.8亿元(2Q24财务净收入约0.1亿元)。期内 ...