智通财经APP获悉，国泰海通发布研报称，考虑名创优品(09896)海外直营店仍在投入阶段，下调公司 2025-27年经调整归母净利润至29.98/34.74/41.79(-0.24/-0.68/-0.01)亿元人民币。考虑公司国内及海外经 营数据及开店均环比明显改善，TOPTOY进入高速增长期贡献增量空间，且大店、IP、海外战略持续升 级并在数据端兑现，给予2026年18xPE估值，目标市值为625亿元人民币，以1HKD=0.9100CNY汇率计 算，下调目标价至55.50元港币，评级增持。 国泰海通主要观点如下： 业绩简述：25Q3实现营收57.97亿/+28.2%，国内营收+19.3%，国际业务+27.7%，Toptoy+111.5%。归母 净利润4.41亿/-31.4%，经调整净利润7.67亿/+11.7%，经调整EBITDA13.54亿/+18.8%。 国内及海外同店均延续改善趋势 ①收入略超预期，业绩符合预期其中：国内收入+19.3%vs预期中高双位数增长;国内计算单店+10%vs预 期高单位数增长。海外计算单店收入+7.9%，环比25Q2改善，与公司公告低个位数同店增长趋势一致。 ②25Q3净增2 ...

2025 年 12 月 02 日 | H70420@capitalcom.tw | | | --- | --- | | 顾向君 目标价(港币) | 45 | 公司基本资讯 | 产业别 | | 商贸零售 | | --- | --- | --- | | H 股价(2025/12/01) | | 38.54 | | 恒生指数(2025/12/01) | | 26,033.3 | | 股价 12 个月高/低 | | 50.52/28.71 | | 总发行股数(百万) | | 1,237.56 | | H 股数(百万) | | 1,237.56 | | H 市值(亿元) | | 340.64 | | 主要股东 | | 杨云云(63.1%) | | 每股净值(元) | | 8.68 | | 股价/账面净值 | | 4.44 | | | 一个月 三个月 | 一年 | | 股价涨跌(%) | 23.70 -19.57 | -6.59 | 近期评等 | 出刊日期 | 前日收盘 | 评等 | | --- | --- | --- | | 2025-08-22 | 39.06 | 买进 | | 2025-05-27 | 34.55 ...

增收不增利，或是名创优品(09896)转型升级路上不得不吞咽的"苦果"。 11月21日，名创优品发布2025年前三季度业绩报告。财报显示，前三季度，公司实现收入151.9亿元， 同比增长23.68%;期内利润13.49亿元，同比减少26.1%。第三季度，公司收入57.97亿元，同比增长 28.17%;期内利润4.43亿元，同比减少31.64%。 不论是单季度，还是前三个季度，名创优品均是增收不增利的表现，这意味着公司全球化扩张以及大店 战略仍未产生正反馈。 当然，名创优品大刀阔斧战略转型也付出了不小的"代价"——期内成本增长明显，进一步蚕食公司利 润。 据财报披露，2025年第三季度，名创优品的销售成本为32.07亿元，同比增长28.6%;销售及分销开支14.3 亿元，同比增长43.5%;一般及行政开支3.44亿元，同比增长45.6%。对此，公司表示，销售及分销开支 同比增长主要归因于公司为推动业务未来发展而对直营门店的投资，尤其是美国市场等战略性海外市 场。 经营成本的增长，显然对公司盈利能力造成一定影响。第三季度，名创优品毛利率同比下降0.2pct至 44.7%，进而导致公司业绩增收不增利。 或许原因对名 ...

Core Insights - The company's Q3 2025 performance met expectations with a revenue increase of 28% to 5.8 billion yuan and an adjusted net profit increase of 12% to 770 million yuan [1][2] Group 1: Domestic Business Performance - Miniso's domestic revenue grew by 19% to 2.9 billion yuan, driven by a focus on "super categories, super stores, and super marketing," with toys showing strong performance and 16 new IP artist signings [1] - Offline revenue increased by 16% to 2.6 billion yuan, with same-store sales growth in the high single digits and 102 new stores opened during the quarter [1] - Online revenue surged by 58% to 340 million yuan, indicating robust e-commerce growth [1] Group 2: TOPTOY Performance - TOPTOY's revenue skyrocketed by 111% to 580 million yuan, with strong performance from proprietary IP new products and same-store sales growth in the mid-single digits, alongside 14 new store openings [1] Group 3: International Market Development - Miniso's overseas revenue rose by 28% to 2.3 billion yuan, with the U.S. market seeing over 65% revenue growth [1] - The company is optimizing overseas inventory and enhancing local operational capabilities, with same-store sales growth in the low single digits in key markets like the U.S. and Canada, and 117 new stores opened internationally [1] - Management plans to replicate successful strategies from the U.S. and China in Southeast Asia for sustainable long-term growth [1] Group 4: Financial Metrics and Forecasts - Gross margin slightly decreased by 0.2 percentage points due to product mix adjustments, while excluding share-based payment expenses, the sales and management expense ratio increased by 1.4 percentage points [2] - Adjusted net profit for 2025 is projected to remain at 2.9 billion yuan, with a 4% downward revision for 2026 to 3.6 billion yuan, maintaining a target price adjustment of 12%/11% to 50.18 HKD/26.08 USD, reflecting a 20x 2025 non-IFRS P/E ratio [2]

名创优品(09896)再跌超6%，截至发稿，跌6.48%，报36.68港元，成交额1.88亿港元。 中金表示，名创优品三季度毛利率同比微降0.2ppt，主要因产品结构调整。股份支付薪酬开支1.8亿元， 主要与TOPTOY股权激励相关，剔除该项后销售和管理费用率同比+1.4ppt/-0.3ppt，增幅如期收窄，海 外直营业务经营利润率同增低单位数。由于永辉收购事项及发行股票挂钩证券，期内净财务费用1.0亿 元，分占永辉亏损1.5亿元，其他收益0.7亿元，剔除相关影响后，经调整净利润同增12%至7.7亿元。 消息面上，名创优品近日公布第三季度业绩，期内实现营收57.97亿元，同比增长28.2%，超过25%至 28%指引范围的上限。归属母公司的净利润为4.41亿元，相比去年同期的6.42亿元下滑超30%。 ...

中金表示，名创优品三季度毛利率同比微降0.2ppt，主要因产品结构调整。股份支付薪酬开支1.8亿元， 主要与TOPTOY股权激励相关，剔除该项后销售和管理费用率同比+1.4ppt/-0.3ppt，增幅如期收窄，海 外直营业务经营利润率同增低单位数。由于永辉收购事项及发行股票挂钩证券，期内净财务费用1.0亿 元，分占永辉亏损1.5亿元，其他收益0.7亿元，剔除相关影响后，经调整净利润同增12%至7.7亿元。 消息面上，名创优品近日公布第三季度业绩，期内实现营收57.97亿元，同比增长28.2%，超过25%至 28%指引范围的上限。归属母公司的净利润为4.41亿元，相比去年同期的6.42亿元下滑超30%。 智通财经APP获悉，名创优品(09896)再跌超6%，截至发稿，跌6.48%，报36.68港元，成交额1.88亿港 元。 ...

智通财经APP获悉，中金发布研报称，看好名创优品(09896)国内外业务的精细化运营和持续提效，管理 层预计4Q25收入同增25-30%，其中中美同店均同增低双位数。因毛利率波动及费用投放，经调整净利 润预测25年基本维持29亿元，下调26年预测4%至36亿元，当前港/美股对应15倍25年non-IFRS P/E，维 持港/美股跑赢行业评级。考虑行业估值调整，下调港/美股目标价12%/11%至50.18港元/26.08美元，对 应20倍25年non-IFRS P/E，分别有28%/33%的上行空间。 中金主要观点如下： 公司3Q25收入同增28%至58亿元，经调整净利润同增12%至7.7亿元，业绩符合该行预期。 3Q25毛利率同比微降0.2ppt，主要因产品结构调整。股份支付薪酬开支1.8亿元，主要与TOPTOY股权激 励相关，剔除该项后销售和管理费用率同比+1.4ppt/-0.3ppt，增幅如期收窄，海外直营业务经营利润率 同增低单位数。由于永辉收购事项及发行股票挂钩证券，期内净财务费用1.0亿元，分占永辉亏损1.5亿 元，其他收益0.7亿元，剔除相关影响后，经调整净利润同增12%至7.7亿元。 名创国内业 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Miniso (9896.HK) is not explicitly stated in the provided documents, but the report indicates a positive outlook based on strong performance metrics and growth potential. Core Insights - Miniso reported a revenue of 15.19 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, representing a year-over-year increase of 23.7%. The adjusted net profit for the same period was 2.046 billion yuan, with an adjusted net profit margin of 13.5% [1][2] - The company's same-store sales growth in China reached low double-digit levels in October 2025, indicating a strong recovery and growth trajectory [2] - The TOP TOY segment showed exceptional performance with a revenue increase of 87.9% year-over-year, contributing significantly to overall growth [1][2] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For Q3 2025, Miniso achieved a revenue of 5.797 billion yuan, a year-over-year increase of 28.2%. Domestic revenue was 2.909 billion yuan (yoy +19.3%), while overseas revenue was 2.312 billion yuan (yoy +27.7%). TOP TOY's Q3 revenue was 575 million yuan (yoy +111.4%) [2] - The adjusted operating profit margin for Q3 was 17.6%, showing a narrowing decline of 2.1 percentage points, indicating improved profitability [3] Store Expansion - As of the end of Q3 2025, Miniso had a total of 8,138 stores globally, with 4,407 in China and 3,424 overseas. The company opened 718 new stores year-over-year, with 75.7% of new openings in overseas markets [3] Profit Forecast - The forecast for net profit attributable to the parent company for 2025-2027 is 2.703 billion yuan, 3.438 billion yuan, and 4.232 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 16.4X, 12.9X, and 10.5X [4][6]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the contrasting performance of Pop Mart and Miniso in the new consumption sector, highlighting Pop Mart's strong growth driven by its IP strategy, while Miniso faces challenges in its business model transformation [2][12][25]. Group 1: Pop Mart's Performance - Since August, Pop Mart's stock price has increased by 37%, with a market capitalization exceeding 400 billion yuan [3]. - Pop Mart's recent mini LABUBU release sold 300,000 units in just one minute, showcasing its strong consumer demand [4]. - In the first half of 2025, Pop Mart achieved revenue of 13.876 billion yuan, 1.5 times that of Miniso, with a year-on-year growth of 204.4% [27]. Group 2: Miniso's Challenges - Miniso's stock has experienced significant volatility, with a 20% drop following its 2024 annual performance release and a subsequent rise of over 20% after its 2025 first-half results [7][8]. - For the first half of 2025, Miniso reported revenue of 9.393 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 21.1%, but its net profit decreased by nearly 20% [14]. - Miniso's market capitalization is still below 60 billion HKD, with a valuation of only 22 times earnings, indicating a lack of investor enthusiasm [10]. Group 3: IP Strategy Comparison - The disparity between Pop Mart and Miniso largely stems from their approaches to IP. Pop Mart has successfully integrated IP into its business model, while Miniso struggles to replicate this success [12][40]. - In the first half of 2025, Pop Mart's gross margin was 70.3%, significantly higher than Miniso's 44.3% [28]. - Pop Mart's revenue from self-developed products accounted for 99.1%, with 88.1% coming from artist IP, indicating a strong reliance on proprietary IP for revenue generation [29]. Group 4: Miniso's Growth Strategy - Miniso has expanded its overseas presence significantly, opening 554 new stores in international markets, nearly three times the number of new stores opened in mainland China [16][18]. - Despite the rapid expansion, Miniso faces high operational costs in overseas markets, leading to low same-store sales growth rates [20][21]. - The company is exploring ways to leverage IP to enhance its store offerings and drive growth, but it remains to be seen if it can effectively transform its business model [25][54]. Group 5: Future Outlook - The article suggests that Miniso's future growth may depend on its ability to develop and leverage its own IP, which could enhance its product offerings and market position [54][60]. - As the global market for Chinese cultural products expands, there is potential for significant growth in the IP economy, which could benefit companies like Miniso if they adapt successfully [60].

Core Viewpoint - The company's Q2 2025 performance exceeded expectations, driven by strong domestic revenue growth and impressive overseas performance, particularly in the U.S. market [1][2]. Financial Performance - Q2 2025 revenue increased by 23% year-on-year to 5 billion yuan, while adjusted net profit rose by 11% to 690 million yuan, outperforming expectations [1]. - The company declared an interim dividend of $0.0724 per share, corresponding to a payout ratio of approximately 50% of adjusted net profit [1]. - Gross margin improved by 0.3 percentage points to 44%, benefiting from a higher proportion of overseas business and improved margins in the TOPTOY segment [2]. Business Segments - Domestic same-store sales turned positive with a 14% increase in revenue to 2.6 billion yuan, despite a high base, while online sales grew by 31% to 270 million yuan [1]. - Overseas revenue increased by 29% to 1.9 billion yuan, contributing 43% to total revenue, with U.S. revenue surging by 80% [1]. - TOPTOY's revenue grew by 87% to 400 million yuan, with a net increase of 13 stores, maintaining rapid growth [1]. Strategic Initiatives - The company is investing in direct sales and increasing sales expenses to support long-term growth, particularly in strategic overseas markets [2]. - The IP strategy and large store model are showing positive results, with 11 MINISO LAND stores and over 200 flagship stores established in China [2]. - The U.S. channel is gradually improving, with new stores achieving 1.5 times the efficiency of older stores and nearly 30% higher sales per square meter [2]. Future Outlook - Management expects Q3 2025 performance to maintain accelerated growth, raising the full-year guidance to a revenue increase of approximately 25% [3]. - Adjusted net profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026 have been raised by 8% and 6% to 2.9 billion yuan and 3.7 billion yuan, respectively [3]. - The target prices for Hong Kong and U.S. stocks have been increased by 24% to 52.45 HKD and 27.07 USD, respectively, reflecting a 20 times 2025 non-IFRS P/E ratio [3].