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落后半拍的北交所,能否后来居上?
北证三板研习社· 2025-08-04 22:08
Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the strong performance of the North Exchange, with the North 50 and Specialized and Innovative Indexes rising by 0.96% and 1.42% respectively, indicating a potential upward trend after a rebound from the 60-day moving average [1] Market Performance - Since reaching a high on May 21, the North Exchange has been consolidating at high levels, with each subsequent pullback showing reduced magnitude. In contrast, major indices like the Shanghai and Shenzhen have performed strongly, with the Shanghai Composite Index recently surpassing 3600 points [3] - From May 21 to the previous Friday, the North 50 and Specialized and Innovative Indexes have declined by 4.07% and 5.39%, respectively, while the Shanghai Composite Index and Shenzhen Component Index have increased by 5.09% and 6.77% [4] Comparative Analysis - The North 50 Index's current price-to-earnings (PE) ratio is approximately half that of the Sci-Tech 50, indicating potential valuation pressure. Historical high positions have also led to significant locked-in positions, contrasting with the rising micro-cap stocks [4] - The North 50 has underperformed compared to the ChiNext Index since its peak on November 8, with a maximum underperformance of 19.84% over 36 trading days. However, after a period of decline, the North 50 rebounded, indicating potential for recovery [6][8] Future Outlook - The article suggests that the North Exchange may be on track to catch up with the ChiNext Index, as the gap in cumulative performance has been narrowing since July 29, with a maximum difference of 17.5% [8] - The North Exchange is expected to experience an upward trend, particularly when compared to the ChiNext and small-cap growth indices, although the analysis is based on a limited sample size and should be interpreted cautiously [14] Relative Performance - The North 50 has shown relative strength against micro-cap stocks earlier this year, but the gap has widened significantly, making it challenging for the North 50 to fully catch up [12][15] - The article emphasizes that while the North Exchange has potential for recovery, the comparison with micro-cap stocks is less relevant than before, serving more as a reference point [15]