人民财讯1月16日电，企查查APP显示，近日，杭州睿波科技有限公司成立，经营范围包含：移动通信 设备销售；信息安全设备销售；电子元器件零售；集成电路销售等。企查查股权穿透显示，该公司由东 南网架（002135）等共同持股。 ...

Investment Rating - The report suggests an overweight position in equities while maintaining neutral allocations in bonds, commodities, and cash, with a low allocation to credit [2] Core Insights - Despite high market valuations, macro fundamentals are expected to support the current levels, and high valuations alone do not constitute a bearish signal [3] - Economic growth in 2026 is anticipated to be diversified, driven by fiscal policy, regulatory easing, and AI penetration, while political and geopolitical risks should be monitored [4] - The importance of diversification in asset allocation is emphasized, particularly in the late economic cycle, with a recommendation for alternative strategies and diverse investment styles [5][6] Summary by Sections Economic Outlook - The macro outlook for 2026 is positive, with strong performance expected in the first half, but potential slowdown in the second half. Growth will be more diversified, supported by fiscal policy and AI integration [4] Market Valuation - Current valuations are high, with the S&P Shiller PE ratio at its highest level since the tech bubble, but macro factors support these valuations, indicating that high valuations alone do not signal a market downturn [3] Asset Allocation Strategy - The asset allocation strategy for early 2026 favors risk assets, particularly equities, while maintaining neutral positions in bonds and commodities. Credit is underweighted due to low credit spreads [2] - The report highlights the need for selective and cautious approaches in spread trading and credit investments, recommending an overweight in equities to navigate the current economic environment [7] Sector and Regional Trends - Different regions are driven by various factors, with the U.S. led by technology, while value stocks are recovering in Europe. The report notes a balanced dynamic across sectors, creating opportunities for alpha generation [8] Commodity Market Outlook - The commodity market is expected to see a divergence in returns, with gold projected to rise to $4,900 per ounce by year-end, while Brent crude oil prices are expected to decline to an average of $56 per barrel [18]

【环球网财经综合报道】北京时间1月16日凌晨，美国三大股指小幅收涨，道指涨0.6%报49442.44点，标普500指数涨 0.26%报6944.47点，纳指涨0.25%报23530.02点。高盛集团涨超4%，英伟达涨逾2%，领涨道指。万得美国科技七巨头 指数涨0.2%，脸书涨近1%，亚马逊涨0.65%。 公开数据显示，美国六大银行在2025年进行了超过1400亿美元的派息和股票回购，超过2019年创下的纪录。其中摩根 大通回购了超过300亿美元股票，创下华尔街银行最高纪录，且规模是该行两年前回购额的三倍多。银行业预计这一 势头将在今年持续。 《金融时报》指出，尽管花旗在第四季度的营收同比增长2%，但利润仍下降了13%；富国银行公布的净利润低于预 期，引发市场对银行业绩的担忧。 但另一方，美国大型银行在第四季度财报中表现疲软，富国银行和花旗集团的利润分别下降，导致银行股领跌，标普 500指数收跌0.5%。 《金融时报》发文称，由于美国一些大型银行公布了令人失望的第四季度财报，银行股领跌华尔街股市，其中富国银 行（Wells Fargo）和花旗（Citi）是表现最差的公司之一，分别下跌4.7%和3.3%。 ...

转自：新华财经 新华财经伦敦1月15日电（记者赵小娜）英国伦敦股市《金融时报》100种股票平均价格指数15日报收于10238.94点，较前一交易日上涨54.59点，涨幅为 0.54%。欧洲三大股指当天涨跌不一。 当天伦敦股市成分股中位于涨幅前五位的个股分别为：金融投资公司3i集团股价上涨10.08%，资产管理公司施罗德股价上涨9.82%，科技企业史密斯集团 股价上涨4.15%，房地产商珀西蒙公司股价上涨4.07%，房地产投资公司伦敦梅特里克股价上涨3.68%。 当天伦敦股市成分股中位于跌幅前五位的个股分别为：英国奢侈品集团博柏利股价下跌3.16%，阿斯利康制药公司股价下跌2.23%，葛兰素史克公司股价 下跌1.73%，餐饮服务公司金巴斯集团股价下跌1.72%，英国电信集团股价下跌1.50%。 欧洲其他两大主要股指方面，法国巴黎股市CAC40指数报收于8313.12点，较前一交易日下跌17.85点，跌幅为0.21%；德国法兰克福股市DAX指数报收于 25352.39点，较前一交易日上涨66.15点，涨幅为0.26%。 编辑：吴郑思 ...

本报讯(浒萱)日前，江苏省2025年度省级专精特新中小企业(第二批)认定名单结束公示，苏州高新区浒 墅关先进制造功能片区53家企业成功入选。 目前辖区已获评23家国家级专精特新"小巨人"企业、161家省级"专精特新"中小企业。当前，浒墅关先 进制造功能片区正以"专精特新"为关键抓手，加速汇聚高端要素，完善产业生态，全面提升在区域乃至 全球产业链中的核心竞争力。未来，浒墅关将持续培育更多掌握独门绝技的隐形冠军，进一步筑牢现代 化产业体系的坚实基底。 专精特新中小企业作为优质中小企业的中坚力量，在激发经济增长新动能、构建现代化产业体系、提升 产业链供应链韧性等方面发挥着不可替代的支撑作用。入选企业中，光羿智能科技(苏州)有限公司是全 球唯一实现电致变色大面积曲面产品量产的创新型科技企业，专注于EC调光产品的研发与应用；江苏 西励科技有限公司是国内显微自动化与智能精密光学检测领域的创新引领者与核心方案供应商，核心产 品服务全球近2000家知名企业……此次众多企业的成功入选，不仅标志着浒墅关产业向"高"攀登、 向"新"发力的阶段性成果，更是区域坚持创新驱动、深耕实体经济的最好印证。 ...

"十五五"时期，我们将牢牢把握"扩能提质、融合创新、开放共赢"主线，深化产业链精准招商，加速构 建"361"现代化产业体系，推动商务区能级再提升，全力办好品牌展会，以高质量的产业集聚赋能未 来。 生产性服务业向"高"而攀。我们将着力推动金融与科技的深度融合，让金融活水更精准地浇灌实体经 济，推动VR/AR、人工智能等数字产业集群壮大。同时，构建智慧物流体系，打造区域性物流信息枢 纽，推动产业链整体向价值链高端攀升。 生活性服务业向"暖"而行。我们将大力实施"服务业便民惠民工程"，建好15分钟社区生活圈，让智慧养 老、普惠托育等新服务融入日常。深耕"赣江文化旅游带"，打造文旅精品，让更多人领略这里的魅力。 我们还将培育首店、夜间经济等新消费热点，让城市始终充满繁荣的活力。 数字化是迈向未来的关键引擎。我们将积极培育超过50家数字化转型标杆企业，积极发展平台经济、共 享经济等新业态，为服务业开辟新赛道、塑造新优势。 过去5年，我的足迹遍布VR产业基地、金融商务区、繁华商圈与大型会展，与研发人员探讨过技术落地 的要素，在企业座谈会上倾听过发展的渴求，也在市井烟火中感受过市民对更优服务的期盼。这些鲜活 的场景让我坚信 ...

当地时间1月14日，巴菲特在谈及人工智能风险时，直接将其与"核武器"相提并论。 面对创纪录的现金储备，他直言"现金是一种糟糕的长期资产"，但2025年没有足够大的、价格合理的投 资机会。 AI风险=核武器？ 在这场两小时的特别节目中，巴菲特直言不讳地指出，即便是AI领域最顶尖的人才，也无法预判这项 技术的未来走向。 "要是你是哥伦布，说自己不知前路何方倒也无妨，毕竟大不了掉头返航；但如今，AI'精灵'已经逃出 了魔瓶，覆水难收。" 他将AI行业领军者对技术走向的茫然无措，比作二战期间爱因斯坦谈及原子弹研发时的评价："它改变 了世界上的一切，唯独没有改变人类的思维方式。" 刚刚卸任伯克希尔·哈撒韦首席执行官的"股神"沃伦·巴菲特再抛重磅言论。 报告显示，截至2025年第三季度末，公司现金及现金等价物储备飙升至创纪录的3817亿美元，创下历史 新高。 事实上，这并非巴菲特首次警示AI风险。 早在2024年5月的伯克希尔年度股东大会上，他就曾明确表示，人工智能"蕴藏着巨大的向善潜力，但同 时也具备极大的作恶风险"。 对于AI的谨慎与防范，也贯穿在巴菲特的投资原则中。 从伯希克尔的商业版图来看，旗下囊括GEICO、B ...

隔夜，现货黄金在收盘时达4626.41美元，涨幅近0.9%，而盘中最高触及4642.77美元，刷新了历史纪录。今日欧市盘中，黄金小幅下跌，目前在4603美元 附近徘徊。 与此同时，现货白银大涨7.2%，收报93.24美元，并一度触及93.48美元的历史高点。 加征25%关税！ 隔夜，美股三大指数连续第二个交易日下跌，截至收盘，道指跌0.09%报49149.63点，纳指跌1%报23471.75点，标普500指数跌0.53%报6926.6点。 消息面上，PPI意外升温。 美国劳工统计局公布的另一项关键通胀数据显示：11月PPI同比3%，预期2.7%；PPI环比0.2%，预期0.2%。11月核心PPI同比3%，预期2.7%，核心PPI环 比0%，预期0.2%。 此次PPI上涨的主要动力来自能源领域。最终需求商品指数当月上涨0.9%，创下自2024年2月上涨0.9%以来的最大单月涨幅。这一涨势几乎完全由能源板 块驱动。 那么这股上游压力能否顺利传导？导致通胀继续飙升呢？这关键还得看下游消费是否买账。好消息是，他们买账了，美国经济依然韧性；坏消息是，他们 确实买账了，而且还买的不少，通胀恐怕一时半会真压不下去了。 所以 ...

2026 年是大有可为的一年，也是机遇大于风险的一年。从投资机遇来看，经过连续多年的调整，很多 传统白马股已经逐步跌出了投资机会。例如消费白马股、新能源龙头股，以及保险、券商等板块，在过 去一年整体表现不佳，被市场戏称为"老白马""老银行"。但正是这些长期基本面扎实、估值处于低位的 板块，可能会孕育新的机会。 在 2025 年下半年，我在北京参加了一位被誉为"民间股神"的投资人新书发布会，并与他进行了一次对 话。他当时依然坚定看好传统消费和价值股，认为这些公司盈利能力强、品牌价值高，虽然短期处于低 谷，但长期投资价值依然很高。他认为，过几年回头来看，这些判断会被市场验证。我在一定程度上赞 同他的观点。这类传统消费股具备稳定的分红能力和较强的品牌护城河，长期来看仍然具备投资价值， 但也会出现明显分化，非龙头企业可能在行业低谷期被淘汰。 此外，包括新能源、保险、券商等板块，在 2026 年也有可能迎来一定程度的估值修复机会。但预计这 类修复更多是对前期超跌的修正，其涨幅和弹性可能不及科技股。科技股依然是 2026 年的重要投资主 线之一，但已经不再是唯一主线。2026 年将有更多板块轮动表现，包括军工、有色等板块 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report captures global multi - asset investment opportunities (covering domestic assets such as A - shares, bonds, and gold, as well as overseas equity assets like US stocks, Japanese stocks, and Indian stocks) and designs corresponding allocation schemes according to common investment scenarios. All portfolios can be tracked through corresponding ETF/LOF products [7]. - In January 2026, the allocation suggestions are as follows: A - shares may have short - term momentum but also face callback risks, with a focus on cyclical mid - cap blue - chips led by chemicals, domestic AI, satellites, and semiconductors; the domestic bond market is neutral, and short - term varieties can be focused on; US stocks may maintain a neutral shock pattern; Japanese stocks may have a neutral shock pattern; Indian stocks may have a weak shock pattern; gold may remain strong in the short - term but also face volatility risks, and its medium - to - long - term allocation value is significant [7]. - A two - stage robust multi - asset portfolio design method based on "portfolio insurance + risk budget" is introduced, which is decision - making based on risk characteristics, does not rely on asset return forecasts, and has good robustness while considering both return elasticity and risk control [7]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Review and Allocation Outlook 1.1 Market Review - In 2025, gold performed outstandingly, global equity assets showed differentiation (A - shares, Japanese stocks, and US stocks were strong, while Indian stocks declined slightly), and the bond market was relatively sluggish. The return performance of underlying assets was: gold (58.57%) > CSI 800 (23.91%) > Nikkei 225 (22.26%) > Nasdaq 100 (17.50%) > short - term financing (1.78%) > 7 - 10 - year policy - financial bonds (0.22%) > S&P BSE Sensex ( - 0.40%) [16]. 1.2 Asset Allocation Outlook - **A - shares**: Economic prosperity and mild inflation recovery support the medium - to - long - term stock market trend, but there are short - term callback risks. Industry themes such as cyclical mid - cap blue - chips led by chemicals, domestic AI, satellites, and semiconductors can be focused on [18]. - **Domestic bond market**: Due to the risk preference of rising equities and the expectation of mild inflation recovery, bonds are neutral overall, and short - term varieties can be continuously focused on [20]. - **US stocks**: The US economy still has resilience, but due to the downward revision of interest - rate cut expectations and relatively high valuations, US stocks may maintain a neutral shock pattern in the short - term [22]. - **Japanese stocks**: Japan's economy is in a benign "wage - price spiral" and is moderately recovering, but with a marginal net outflow of foreign capital, Japanese stocks may have a neutral shock pattern in the short - term [31]. - **Indian stocks**: The economic prosperity has declined from its peak, and with a marginal net outflow of foreign capital, Indian stocks may have a weak shock pattern in the short - term [34]. - **Gold**: Geopolitical tensions have pushed gold to new highs. It may remain strong in the short - term but also face volatility risks, and its medium - to - long - term allocation value is significant [38]. 2. Robust Portfolio Design Idea: Two - Stage Method of "Portfolio Insurance + Risk Budget" 2.1 Dilemma of Asset Allocation Models in Domestic Investment Applications - The two classic multi - asset portfolio management methods, mean - variance optimization (MVO) and its derivative models, and risk - budget - based models (such as the risk - parity model), have limitations in domestic investment applications. MVO is highly sensitive to changes in returns and risks, and the risk - parity model may lead to an overly low proportion of equity assets in the portfolio [45]. 2.2 Optimization Idea 1: Using Portfolio Insurance Method to Optimize the Sharpe Ratio of High - Risk Assets - The portfolio insurance strategy can optimize the return - risk ratio of high - volatility assets such as A - shares in the medium - to - long - term. Taking the domestic stock - bond CPPI portfolio as an example, it can achieve better risk performance compared to corresponding portfolios [52]. 2.3 Optimization Idea 2: Integrating Target Allocation Central Risk Budget Strategy - By decomposing the risk budget, the target stock - bond allocation central can be integrated into the risk - budget configuration model, and the allocation weights can be dynamically adjusted according to the changes in asset volatility [59]. 2.4 "Portfolio Insurance + Risk Budget": Balancing Return Elasticity and Risk Control - The two - stage combination design method of "portfolio insurance + risk budget" first uses the CPPI method to optimize the Sharpe ratio of single risk assets and then constructs a risk - budget investment portfolio based on the risk characteristics of each sub - portfolio. It can effectively combine return elasticity and risk control and has good robustness [63]. 3. Stock - Bond Target Allocation Central Risk Budget Portfolio 3.1 Investment Scenarios and Scheme Design - In a low - interest - rate environment, the fixed - income plus strategy can alleviate the problem of declining returns of pure - bond assets. Two strategies are designed: the stock - bond target allocation central risk budget strategy (stock - bond RB) and the "CPPI + RB" two - stage stock - bond target allocation central strategy (stock - bond CPPI_RB), with three types of allocation central combinations of 1:9, 2:8, and 3:7 constructed respectively [67][68][69]. 3.2 Portfolio Performance Analysis - During the back - testing period (January 5, 2015 - December 31, 2025), the performance of the strategy integrating the stock - bond target allocation central risk budget is better than that of the fixed - allocation central stock - bond portfolio, and the two - stage stock - bond CPPI_RB portfolio is better than the stock - bond RB portfolio [70]. 3.3 Allocation Weights and Marginal Changes - The stock - bond allocation of the three types of allocation central portfolios meets the requirements of the target allocation central. At the end of December 2025, the stock - bond RB portfolio moderately increased the weight of A - shares and increased the weight of long - term bonds while reducing the weight of short - term bonds within the bond category [75]. 4. Low - Volatility "Fixed - Income Plus" Portfolio 4.1 Investment Scenarios and Scheme Design - To reduce the volatility risk of the stock - bond portfolio during extreme "stock - bond double - kill" market conditions, an appropriate amount of gold is added. The portfolio is designed using the two - stage method of "portfolio insurance (CPPI) + risk budget (RB)", with a target allocation central of stock:gold:bond = 1:1:4 [80][81]. 4.2 Portfolio Performance Analysis - During the back - testing period (January 1, 2015 - December 31, 2025), the low - volatility "fixed - income plus" strategy has an annualized return of 7.08%, an annualized volatility of 3.47%, a maximum drawdown of - 4.92%, a Sharpe ratio of 1.99, and a Calmar ratio of 1.44 [83]. 4.3 Allocation Weights and Marginal Changes - As of December 31, 2025, the latest weights of the strategy are: CSI 800 (10.78%), gold (5.99%), 7 - 10 - year policy - financial bonds (75.09%), and short - term financing (8.14%). In December 2025, the weight of short - term financing was increased, and the weights of other assets were decreased [90]. 4.4 Strategy Implementation: Tracking Based on ETF Assets - The low - volatility "fixed - income plus" strategy can be well tracked by corresponding ETF assets. As of December 31, 2025, the annualized return of the strategy since 2023 is 9.38%, and the annualized returns of the FOF_of_ETFs portfolio based on ETF net value and on - site price are 9.05% and 9.07% respectively [95]. 5. Global Asset Allocation Portfolio 5.1 Investment Scenarios and Scheme Design - In a volatile global situation, global asset allocation can effectively diversify risks and improve the return - risk ratio of the portfolio. A two - stage FOF portfolio design method of "portfolio insurance (CPPI) + risk parity (RP)" is used [102][104]. 5.2 Global Multi - Asset Allocation Strategy I: A - shares + Bonds + Gold + US Stocks - **Performance**: During the back - testing period (January 1, 2014 - December 31, 2025), the annualized return is 11.85%, the annualized volatility is 5.94%, the maximum drawdown is - 7.97%, the Sharpe ratio is 1.91, and the Calmar ratio is 1.49. In 2025, it recorded 20.94% [106]. - **Allocation Weights and Marginal Changes**: As of December 31, 2025, the model allocation weights are: CSI 800 (18.98%), Nasdaq 100 (17.84%), gold (13.66%), and 7 - 10 - year policy - financial bonds (49.51%). In December 2025, the weight of 7 - 10 - year policy - financial bonds was increased, and the weights of other assets were decreased [111]. - **Strategy Implementation**: The strategy can be well tracked by corresponding ETF/LOF assets. As of December 31, 2025, the annualized return of the strategy since 2023 is 16.92%, and the annualized returns of the FOF_of_ETFs portfolio based on ETF net value and on - site price are 16.53% and 17.04% respectively [119]. 5.3 Global Multi - Asset Allocation Strategy II: A - shares + Bonds + Gold + Cross - Border Equities - **Performance**: During the back - testing period (January 1, 2014 - December 31, 2025), the annualized return is 10.25%, the annualized volatility is 5.09%, the maximum drawdown is - 9.97%, the Sharpe ratio is 1.94, and the Calmar ratio is 1.03. In 2025, it recorded 13.56% [126]. - **Allocation Weights and Marginal Changes**: As of December 31, 2025, the model allocation weights are: CSI 800 (9.63%), Nasdaq 100 (9.65%), Nikkei 225 (6.17%), S&P BSE Sensex (17.87%), gold (7.16%), and 7 - 10 - year policy - financial bonds (49.51%). In December 2025, the weights of S&P BSE Sensex and 7 - 10 - year policy - financial bonds were increased, and the weights of other assets were decreased [133]. - **Strategy Implementation**: The strategy can be well tracked by corresponding ETF/LOF assets. As of December 31, 2025, the annualized return of the strategy since 2023 is 14.06%, and the annualized returns of the FOF_of_ETFs portfolio based on ETF net value and on - site price are 13.60% and 14.06% respectively [145].