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金融破段子 | 早有持仓依然踏空,要不要换仓?
中泰证券资管· 2025-08-25 11:32
Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the dilemma of holding positions in a market that has not yielded expected returns, emphasizing the importance of evaluating whether to change positions based on cognitive thresholds, opportunity costs, and holding beliefs [2][5][6]. Group 1: Cognitive Threshold - Changing positions involves a cognitive threshold, as it requires a decision that the new asset is superior to the old one. The confidence in this decision is crucial, as it relates to one's "circle of competence" [2][3]. - Past performance should not dictate future decisions; instead, a high-confidence future outlook for a new asset should drive the decision to change positions [2]. Group 2: Opportunity Cost - Opportunity cost must be considered when changing positions, which includes not only financial costs but also the potential returns from the original asset [5]. - Reflecting on the reasons for initially purchasing the old asset and comparing them with the reasons for considering the new asset is essential to avoid poor decisions [5]. Group 3: Holding Beliefs - Holding beliefs about an asset's future value is critical, especially during market fluctuations. This belief is tested during downturns and requires a strong internal conviction to maintain [5][6]. - Trust in a new asset is built over time through research and experience, and it is important to assess whether one can accept potential losses after changing positions [6][7].