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金融破段子 | 早有持仓依然踏空,要不要换仓?
中泰证券资管· 2025-08-25 11:32
如果说上涨行情中的低仓位或空仓状态是一类沮丧,那么明明已经持仓却依然踏空的状态,则是另一类体 感更为强烈的沮丧。 如此感同身受的总结,源于小编与好友小A的对话。2024年上半年都能坚持不降仓位的小A,如今却陷入 了迷茫——冰点已经熬过,为何如今并没有分享到预想中的丰收? 早有持仓却依然踏空(或者说收获感不强),要不要换仓?这确实是一个值得探讨的问题。 所谓换仓,是用未有的标的来替换现有的标的。在评估是否要进行这个动作时,我们不妨从门槛、成本、 持有信念等不同角度来考虑。 首先,换仓有 认知门槛 。 当你用新标的Y来替换老标的X时,其实已经做了一个决策,即,新标的优于老标的。但问题随之而来, 这一决策的置信度又如何。事实上,一旦对决策质量提出要求,自然就会涉及到对认知的要求,也就是我 们常说的"能力圈"。 踏空作为已经发生的过去式,不该成为换仓的理由(过去涨得好,不代表未来还能涨得好)。相反,如果 借助认知找到了高置信度的未来更能涨的资产,那么换仓就是更优的决策。 另外,不妨先回想一下当初买入X的原因,然后再审视当下打算替换为Y的原因。当我们说用更好的Y来 替换X时,所谓的"更好"应该是经过慎重比较之后且二者确 ...
需求排序依据有哪些
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-08-09 05:33
Group 1 - The core idea emphasizes the importance of prioritizing demands to maximize the value of limited R&D resources through a multi-dimensional evaluation framework that includes "value," "cost," and "risk" [1][4] - The top priority in demand evaluation is the alignment with business value and strategic goals, which serves as the guiding principle for decision-making [3][7] - Demand prioritization is fundamentally an economic game of opportunity cost, where every demand represents a potential project vying for scarce R&D resources [4][5] Group 2 - The first criterion for prioritization is business value and strategic alignment, which assesses whether a demand can significantly contribute to achieving key strategic objectives [7][8] - The second criterion focuses on user value and pain points, determining the breadth and depth of the problem a demand addresses for users [9][10] - The third criterion evaluates cost and complexity, analyzing the effort required for implementation and the associated risks [11][12] Group 3 - The fourth criterion considers timing and dependencies, assessing whether the current moment is the right time to pursue a demand and identifying any necessary prerequisites [13][14] - In practice, these criteria should not be treated in isolation but rather integrated into a comprehensive prioritization process that balances multiple dimensions [15][16] - Quantitative models like RICE and WSJF serve as frameworks to mathematically combine these various criteria into a single comparable score [17][18] Group 4 - Regular team meetings, such as backlog refinement sessions, are essential for collaborative prioritization, allowing input from various stakeholders [19][20] - Tools can help make prioritization criteria explicit, enhancing transparency and data-driven decision-making [21][22] - The weighting of prioritization criteria may change depending on the product lifecycle stage, with different focuses at various phases [22][23]
茅台现在便宜吗?
雪球· 2025-07-21 04:15
Group 1: Company Valuation - The core value of a company lies in the future cash flows it can generate, which should be the primary consideration when evaluating its worth [2][3] - Understanding a company's future cash flow is essential, especially in competitive industries where the company's stability and competitive advantages are crucial for long-term success [2][4] - Investors must have a strong conviction about a company's bottom line to justify significant investments, as uncertainty about future performance can deter investment [3][4] Group 2: Market Interest Rates - Market interest rates play a critical role in determining the attractiveness of investments, as they represent the opportunity cost of capital [5][6] - The discount rate used for cash flow valuation is influenced by the risk-free rate, which can fluctuate significantly over time, affecting investment decisions [5][6] - A higher risk-free rate diminishes the appeal of lower-return investments, while a lower rate enhances the attractiveness of modest returns [6][7] Group 3: Personal Opportunity Cost - The perceived value of an investment is relative to the investor's available opportunities; higher potential returns elsewhere can render a seemingly attractive investment less appealing [9][10] - Investors with access to high-growth opportunities may find established companies like Moutai less attractive compared to their own ventures [9][10] - The evaluation of whether an investment is cheap or expensive should consider both market conditions and individual investment opportunities [10]
白话经济学十大原理:这些“道理”,藏在每天的生活里
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-07-20 06:47
Core Insights - The article emphasizes the importance of understanding basic economic principles in daily decision-making and business operations, highlighting that economics is fundamentally about choices and trade-offs [2][3]. Group 1: Economic Principles - Principle 1: There is no such thing as a free lunch; every choice involves trade-offs, and understanding what is sacrificed is crucial for effective decision-making [4]. - Principle 2: The true cost of something is determined by what must be given up to obtain it, known as opportunity cost, which can lead to significant hidden costs for businesses [5]. - Principle 3: Smart individuals focus on marginal changes, evaluating the additional benefits and costs of small adjustments rather than just the overall picture [6][7]. Group 2: Incentives and Trade - Principle 4: People respond to incentives, and understanding how to design effective incentives is essential for guiding behavior in organizations [8][9]. - Principle 5: Trade is mutually beneficial; voluntary exchanges allow both parties to gain, emphasizing the importance of cooperation rather than competition in business [11]. - Principle 6: The market's "invisible hand" typically allocates resources efficiently through supply and demand signals, but this can be hindered in monopolistic situations [12][14]. Group 3: Government Intervention and Economic Health - Principle 7: Sometimes, government intervention is necessary to correct market failures, such as environmental pollution or monopolistic practices [15]. - Principle 8: A country's prosperity is fundamentally linked to its productivity, which determines the standard of living and economic health [17]. - Principle 9: Excessive money printing leads to inflation, diminishing the value of currency and increasing prices [18]. - Principle 10: There is often a trade-off between inflation and unemployment, requiring careful balancing by policymakers [19][20].
X @Yuyue
Yuyue· 2025-07-04 13:15
Market Insights - The industry notes a shift towards event-driven market dynamics, particularly in June, deviating from initial expectations [1] - The industry observes the emergence of "big golden dogs" on the blockchain, exemplified by the Bonk ecosystem's Useless token [1] - The industry acknowledges the importance of seizing opportunities, especially for younger participants, emphasizing the high cost of missed chances [1] - The industry suggests that the crypto "red利期" (period of high returns/dividends) may diminish over time, highlighting the need to capitalize on current opportunities [1] Operational Considerations - The industry recognizes the challenges of maintaining a regular schedule due to involvement in A/H shares, meme activity during late hours, and US stock market opening times [1] - The industry acknowledges the difficulty for individuals with a "P" personality type (MBTI: INTP) to adhere to strict schedules, impacting participation in calls and events [1] Event Summary - A "对话交易员" (Dialogue with Traders) session featuring Yuyue (@yuyue_chris) was scheduled for July 4th at 19:00 UTC+8 [1] - The "对话交易员" session highlighted Yuyue's expertise in multiple markets and sectors, with a track record of successful market timing and trading methodologies [1] - The "对话交易员" session aimed to explore Yuyue's unique insights into the intersection of on-chain capital flows, social sentiment, and community consensus [1]
提前还房贷真的会“亏”吗?银行经理透露:很多人还在“白送钱”
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-06-18 00:21
Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the implications of early mortgage repayment in the context of declining loan interest rates and the opportunity costs associated with investment decisions. Group 1: Early Repayment Considerations - Early repayment of mortgages may not be financially beneficial if the borrower has access to higher-yielding investment opportunities that can cover loan interest costs [1][6] - Individuals with limited investment experience may find early repayment more advantageous as they are less likely to achieve returns that exceed mortgage interest rates [6][10] - The actual cost of borrowing can differ significantly from nominal rates, influenced by factors such as inflation and deflation [8][10] Group 2: Investment Opportunities - Borrowers with substantial investment experience may choose to keep their funds liquid for higher returns rather than repaying mortgages early [10][12] - If alternative investments yield returns greater than the mortgage interest rate, early repayment is generally not advisable [12][15] - The timing of mortgage repayment is crucial; early repayment is more beneficial within the first third of the loan term, especially under an amortized payment structure [13][15] Group 3: Strategies for Early Repayment - Two primary strategies for early repayment include shortening the loan term or reducing monthly payments, depending on the borrower's financial situation [17] - Borrowers anticipating future deflation may find early repayment to be a wise decision, while those expecting inflation should consider maintaining their investments [15][17]
只同住不结婚的年轻人,后来都怎么样了
Hu Xiu· 2025-05-29 06:59
Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the evolving attitudes of young people towards marriage and the decision to obtain a marriage certificate, highlighting a trend towards more cautious and individualized approaches to relationships and commitments [2][24][30]. Group 1: Marriage Registration Trends - The new marriage registration regulations allow individuals to complete the process with just an ID, leading to a surge in registrations, particularly on May 20, when many queued overnight [2][3]. - A survey by Soul App indicates that a significant portion of younger generations still values the act of obtaining a marriage certificate, with 51.78% of post-90s, 50.83% of post-95s, and 41.87% of post-00s believing it is an important milestone in romantic relationships [3][31]. Group 2: Reasons for Not Registering - Many young couples choose not to register their marriage due to various reasons, including career considerations, financial stability, and the desire to avoid societal pressures related to marriage and childbearing [4][6][10]. - The article presents contrasting views, with some individuals feeling that not registering allows for greater freedom and less pressure from family regarding marriage and children [5][9][14]. Group 3: Legal and Social Implications - The lack of a marriage certificate can lead to legal vulnerabilities, particularly concerning property rights and responsibilities in the event of a separation [20][30]. - The article highlights that cohabiting couples without a marriage certificate may face challenges in legal matters, such as child custody and financial disputes, as they lack the legal protections afforded to married couples [19][21]. Group 4: Cultural Perspectives - The article notes that attitudes towards marriage vary significantly between urban and rural areas, with urban youth more likely to support non-traditional arrangements [17][18]. - It also discusses the influence of cultural norms on marriage decisions, with some individuals feeling that traditional views on marriage do not align with their personal beliefs [22][24]. Group 5: International Comparisons - The article references the French PACS system, which offers a flexible alternative to marriage, allowing couples to enjoy some legal benefits without the formalities of marriage [26][27]. - Statistics show that the number of PACS registrations in France is nearly equal to marriage registrations, indicating a shift in how relationships are formalized [27][28].
为什么大多数人被困在“不痛不痒”的困境?
Hu Xiu· 2025-05-18 10:51
Core Concept - The article emphasizes the "barbell strategy," which involves exposing oneself to extreme outcomes by adopting a dual approach of extreme risk aversion and high-risk preference while ignoring the middle ground [1][3]. Group 1: Barbell Strategy - The barbell strategy highlights the importance of avoiding the "pain-free" middle ground, which is characterized by limited returns and significant risks [3][4]. - Engaging in middle-ground investments, such as heavily investing in real estate or seemingly stable financial products, can lead to a vulnerable position without adequate protection or explosive upside potential [5][10]. - The strategy suggests that resources should be allocated to ensure absolute safety while a small portion can be risked for potential high returns, thus adopting an asymmetric approach of "strictly controlling downside and amplifying upside" [5][24]. Group 2: Investment Decision-Making - Most investment decisions revolve around resource allocation, which includes time, money, energy, and attention [13][14]. - Attention is a hidden layer between individuals and their resources; without focusing attention on investments, decision-making effectiveness diminishes [15][16]. - The article argues that many projects are mediocre, and the likelihood of achieving significant returns is low, making it crucial to identify truly exceptional opportunities [21][22]. Group 3: Avoiding Mediocrity - The article warns against "pain-free" opportunities, likening them to picking up pennies on train tracks, where the risk of significant loss outweighs the potential for small gains [24]. - Historical examples, such as the 2008 financial crisis, illustrate the dangers of pursuing seemingly safe investments that carry hidden systemic risks [24]. - In the current market, many mid-tier internet startups are viewed as "pain-free" investments, lacking the potential for exponential growth seen in earlier tech eras [24][25]. Group 4: Focus and Resource Allocation - The article advocates for a focus on two extremes: stable, low-risk investments and high-potential speculative opportunities, while minimizing attention to the middle ground [25][26]. - Strategic frameworks, such as the Pareto principle, emphasize that 80% of results come from 20% of efforts, encouraging the identification of high-impact opportunities and the elimination of mediocre ones [26].
日经BP书籍:成本核算的陷阱
日经中文网· 2025-04-25 04:27
日经中文网"开设了"日经BP精选"栏目。日经BP是日本经济新闻社媒体集团的一员,成立于1969年。作 为日本领先的B2B媒体公司,聚焦经营管理、专业技术及生活时尚三大主要领域。敬请读者关注。 以下文章来源于日经BP ,作者日经BP 编者荐语: 日经BP . 日经BP成立于1969年4月, 隶属于日本经济新闻社集团。作为日本领先的B2B媒体公司,我们聚焦"经营 管理"、"专业技术"及"生活时尚"三大主要领域,满足客户多元化的需求。 成本核算的陷阱 出版社 : 东 方出版社 内容简介 本书的核心是成本核算,它是企业经营过程中的重点问题,但是经营者往往不精通会计理 论和成本核算,而会计师们的解释又太过理论化且晦涩难懂,这导致经营者不能准确地对成 本和经营举措做出判断,从而阻碍企业的发展。 作者揭露了企业会计原则的本质,警示经营者不要迷信完全成本核算法,因为成本核算的 目的不是技术性、表面性的事务,而是经营策略,所以必须使用重视可变支出变化的直接成 本核算法,详细说明了机会成本和边际收益对成本管理的重要性,各种成本管理方法,以及 如何分配薪酬以最大化地激发员工工作积极性等。 阅读更多内容请点击下方"阅读原文" (本文 ...