收益率曲线陡峭化策略

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市场低估美国“温和衰退”概率,到明年底或100基点降息,大摩看好美债
Hua Er Jie Jian Wen· 2025-08-30 04:03
Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley believes that the market is underestimating the risk of a mild recession in the U.S., which may lead the Federal Reserve to implement faster and more aggressive rate cuts [1][2]. Group 1: Federal Reserve Rate Predictions - Morgan Stanley's baseline scenario predicts that the Federal Reserve will start cutting rates by 25 basis points at the September 2025 FOMC meeting, continuing this pattern until the end of 2026, with a final rate of 2.625% [2]. - The firm has adjusted its forecast to reflect a quicker pace of rate cuts compared to previous predictions, while maintaining the same endpoint for rates [2]. Group 2: Alternative Scenarios and Probabilities - Three alternative scenarios have been outlined by Morgan Stanley, with the following probabilities: 1. A government stimulus leads to an overheating economy, with a 10% probability [3]. 2. Strong consumer spending with the Fed tolerating higher inflation, also with a 10% probability [3]. 3. A mild recession triggered by trade shocks or capital flow issues, leading to significant rate cuts, with a 30% probability [3]. - The current market pricing assigns only about 20% weight to dovish scenarios, which does not align with the risks in the U.S. labor market [3]. Group 3: Investment Strategies - In light of the potential for a mild recession and the Fed's possible response, Morgan Stanley recommends investors to position themselves in long-term U.S. Treasuries and to adopt a steepening yield curve strategy [1][3].