Market Performance - The three major US stock indices experienced slight declines, with the S&P 500 down 0.4%, the Dow Jones down 0.34%, and the Nasdaq down 0.34% [1] - Most large tech stocks fell, including Tesla down over 1%, Facebook down more than 1%, Amazon down 0.83%, Apple down 0.49%, Nvidia down 0.24%, Microsoft down 0.13%, while Google rose 0.22% [1] Chinese Stocks - Most Chinese stocks saw gains, with Xiaoying Technology up over 16%, XPeng Motors up more than 11%, Manbang Group up over 10%, NIO up over 9%, and Tiger Brokers up over 6% [1] - However, Zhengye Technology fell approximately 30%, Yipeng Energy dropped over 23%, Canadian Solar down over 18%, Hesai Technology down about 11%, and Century Interconnect down over 8% [1] European Market - European stock indices closed mixed, with Germany's DAX index up 0.02% at 24280.64 points, France's CAC40 down 0.47% at 7935.2 points, and the UK's FTSE 100 up 0.23% at 9309.2 points [1] Commodity Prices - International precious metal futures closed mixed, with COMEX gold futures down 0.15% at $3383.5 per ounce and COMEX silver futures up 0.87% at $38.1 per ounce [1] - US oil main contract rose 1.23% to $63.48 per barrel, while Brent crude main contract increased 1.14% to $67.60 per barrel [1] Currency and Bond Market - The US dollar index rose 0.41% to 98.65, while the offshore RMB against the US dollar fell by 17 basis points to 7.1833 [1] - US Treasury yields collectively increased, with the 2-year yield up 4.19 basis points to 3.781%, the 3-year yield up 3.92 basis points to 3.736%, the 5-year yield up 3.49 basis points to 3.841%, the 10-year yield up 2.92 basis points to 4.316%, and the 30-year yield up 2.14 basis points to 4.908% [1] - European bond yields generally rose, with the UK 10-year yield up 5.7 basis points to 4.727%, France's 10-year yield up 4.9 basis points to 3.460%, Germany's 10-year yield up 3.9 basis points to 2.755%, Italy's 10-year yield up 5.5 basis points to 3.578%, and Spain's 10-year yield up 4.8 basis points to 3.342% [1]

Market Performance - The three major US stock indices closed mixed, with the Dow Jones up 0.02%, the S&P 500 down 0.59%, and the Nasdaq down 1.46% [1] - Major US tech stocks experienced declines, with Nvidia down over 3%, META down over 2%, and Tesla, Amazon, and Microsoft down over 1% [1] - Popular Chinese concept stocks generally fell, with Xunlei down over 10%, Weibo down over 6%, and New Oriental, iQIYI, and Miniso down over 2% [1] European Market - All three major European stock indices closed higher, with Germany's DAX index up 0.45%, France's CAC40 index up 1.22%, and the UK's FTSE 100 index up 0.34% [1] Commodities - International precious metal futures generally declined, with COMEX gold futures down 0.57% at $3358.90 per ounce and COMEX silver futures down 1.84% at $37.33 per ounce [1] - US oil main contract fell 1.12% to $62.00 per barrel, while Brent crude oil main contract dropped 0.95% to $65.97 per barrel [1] Currency and Bonds - The US dollar index rose 0.12% to 98.28, while the offshore RMB against the US dollar fell by 4 basis points to 7.1882 [1] - US Treasury yields collectively declined, with the 2-year yield down 1.69 basis points to 3.738% and the 10-year yield down 2.54 basis points to 4.306% [1] - European bond yields mostly fell, with the UK 10-year yield up 0.3 basis points to 4.738%, while the German 10-year yield fell 1.3 basis points to 2.747% [1]

Market Performance - The three major U.S. stock indices closed higher, with the Dow Jones up 1.04%, the S&P 500 up 0.32%, and the Nasdaq up 0.14% [1] - Major tech stocks mostly declined, with Microsoft down over 1%, Facebook down more than 1%, Nvidia down 0.88%, Google down 0.68%, Tesla down 0.47%, while Amazon and Apple both rose over 1% [1] - Popular Chinese concept stocks generally rose, with Newegg up over 24%, Linklogis up more than 18%, Pony.ai up over 7%, Futu Holdings up over 6%, and BeiGene up over 6%. In contrast, Genetron Holdings fell over 8%, and Global Data fell more than 6% [1] - European stock indices all closed higher, with Germany's DAX up 0.67%, France's CAC40 up 0.66%, and the UK's FTSE 100 up 0.19% [1] Commodity Prices - International precious metal futures generally rose, with COMEX gold futures up 0.24% at $3407.00 per ounce and COMEX silver futures up 1.44% at $38.55 per ounce [1] - U.S. oil main contract fell 0.68% to $62.74 per barrel, while Brent crude oil main contract dropped 0.54% to $65.76 per barrel [1] - London base metals all fell, with LME lead down 1.36% at $1988.00 per ton, LME zinc down 1.26% at $2811.50 per ton, and LME copper down 0.65% at $9777.00 per ton [1] Bond Market - U.S. Treasury yields collectively fell, with the 2-year yield down 5.84 basis points to 3.668%, the 3-year yield down 6.94 basis points to 3.633%, the 5-year yield down 6.78 basis points to 3.756%, the 10-year yield down 6 basis points to 4.231%, and the 30-year yield down 5.74 basis points to 4.824% [1] - European bond yields also fell collectively, with the UK 10-year yield down 3.6 basis points to 4.587%, France's 10-year yield down 7.4 basis points to 3.333%, Germany's 10-year yield down 6.5 basis points to 2.677%, Italy's 10-year yield down 8 basis points to 3.448%, and Spain's 10-year yield down 6.8 basis points to 3.229% [1]

Economic Indicators - US Treasury Secretary Yellen indicated an openness to a 50 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September[4] - The US Consumer Price Index (CPI) for July rose by 2.7% year-on-year, which is lower than expected[4] - The total US national debt has exceeded $37 trillion for the first time[4] Market Performance - The Nasdaq index closed at 21,681.90, up 1.39%[5] - The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at 44,458.61, up 1.10%[5] - The S&P 500 index closed at 6,445.76, up 1.13%[5] Commodity Prices - The price of Brent crude oil was $66.71, up 0.18%[5] - The spot price of gold was $3,347.64, up 0.18%[5] - Bitcoin futures on CME closed at $119,230.00, up 1.95%[5] Regional Market Insights - Hong Kong's capital market saw a new IPO fundraising total increase of over six times year-on-year in the first seven months of this year[4] - The Hang Seng Index closed at 24,969.68, up 0.25%[5] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3,665.92, up 0.50%[5]

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell is facing pressure from the Trump administration to significantly lower interest rates to 1% [1][3] - Despite the Fed's current inaction, signs in the U.S. Treasury market suggest that a substantial rate cut may not be far-fetched during Trump's second term [1] - Goldman Sachs strategists have noted that the 5-year U.S. Treasury bonds are currently overvalued compared to other maturities, with a yield of approximately 3.78%, which is high since early 2022 [1][3] Group 2 - The valuation of the 5-year Treasury bonds is primarily influenced by market assumptions regarding the timing and extent of Fed rate cuts, with expectations for more cuts and deeper reductions since the beginning of the year [3] - The 5-year Treasury has been the best-performing maturity in the U.S. Treasury market this year, while persistent inflation and the trend of the U.S. budget deficit exert upward pressure on long-term bond yields [3] - Since the end of last year, the yield on 5-year Treasury bonds has decreased by 60 basis points, while the 2-year yield has dropped by 52 basis points, and the 30-year yield has remained stable [3]

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve's Daly indicates that the timing for interest rate cuts is approaching, with the likelihood of more than two cuts this year being higher [1] - South Africa's trade and foreign affairs department warns that the 30% tariffs imposed by the US on South African goods could severely impact the economy, potentially leading to the loss of approximately 30,000 jobs [2] - The Bank of Japan's meeting minutes reveal that some members are considering the possibility of resuming interest rate hikes once trade issues stabilize [3] Group 2 - The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose by 585.06 points, closing at 44,173.64, an increase of 1.34% [4] - COMEX gold futures increased by 0.85% to $3,428.60 per ounce, while silver futures rose by 1.40% to $37.45 per ounce [5] - The 2-year US Treasury yield fell by 2.70 basis points to 3.671%, while the 10-year yield decreased by 2.35 basis points to 4.196% [5]

Economic Data - The U.S. trade deficit in June narrowed to $86 billion, a decrease from previous figures[4] - India's preparation for potential U.S. tariffs ranging from 20% to 25% indicates significant trade tensions[4] - The IMF has raised China's economic growth forecast for this year by 0.8 percentage points[4] Market Performance - The average daily trading volume in Hong Kong's stock market increased by 118% year-on-year in the first half of the year[4] - The 2-year U.S. Treasury yield fell by 5.66 basis points to 3.867%[4] - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield decreased by 8.75 basis points to 4.322%[4] Index Movements - The Nasdaq index closed at 21,098.29, down 0.38%[5] - The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at 44,632.99, down 0.46%[5] - The Hang Seng Index closed at 25,524.45, down 0.15%[5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The A - share market has high investment value in the medium - long term. The CSI 500 and CSI 1000 may bring higher returns due to more science - innovation policy support, while the SSE 50 and SHS 300 have defensive value in the current macro - environment [2][12] - The market for crude oil is affected by factors such as trade agreements and OPEC's production decisions. The organization may fully restore the additional voluntary supply cut of 2.2 million barrels per day by the end of September [4][14] - The prices of various commodities are influenced by multiple factors including supply - demand relationships, policies, and international trade situations. For example, the prices of glass and soda ash are in the process of inventory digestion, and their market performance is related to the "anti - involution" policy and fundamental repair [17] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1当日主要新闻关注 3.1.1 International News - The German government will approve the 2026 budget draft on Wednesday, including a record 126.7 billion euros in investment for infrastructure and defense [6] 3.1.2 Domestic News - The Party Group of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs emphasized promoting the urbanization of agricultural transfer population, protecting their land rights, and promoting urban - rural integration development with the county as the focus [7] 3.1.3 Industry News - The Guangdong Paper Industry Association issued an "anti - involution" initiative, opposing low - price disorderly competition and dumping below cost [8] 3.2外盘每日收益情况 - The report provides the closing prices, price changes, and percentage changes of various overseas financial products on July 25 and July 28, such as the S&P 500, European STOXX 50, and ICE Brent crude oil [9] 3.3主要品种早盘评论 3.3.1 Financial - **Stock Index**: The A - share market had a volatile rebound. The defense and military industry sector led the rise, and the coal sector adjusted. The trading volume reached 1.77 trillion yuan. The proportion of medium - long - term funds in the capital market is expected to increase, which is conducive to reducing market volatility [2][11] - **Treasury Bonds**: Treasury bonds rebounded significantly. The yield of the 10 - year active Treasury bond fell to 1.715%. The central bank increased open - market operations, and the tightness of the capital market eased. Due to policy expectations and market sentiment, the short - term volatility of Treasury bond futures prices will increase [13] 3.3.2 Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: SC crude oil rose 2.06% at night. The US and the EU reached a new trade agreement. OPEC and its allies will hold a meeting on August 3 to decide the production level in September [4][14] - **Methanol**: Methanol fell 1.23% at night. The average operating load of coal - to - olefin plants increased slightly, while the overall operating load of methanol plants decreased slightly. Coastal methanol inventory continued to rise, and it is expected to be bullish in the short term [15] - **Polyolefins**: Polyolefin futures declined and traded sideways at night. The spot market was stable. The market is affected by the "anti - involution" policy and the supply - demand relationship [16] - **Glass and Soda Ash**: Both glass and soda ash futures hit the daily limit down. They are in the process of inventory digestion. The market sentiment was affected by policy expectations and fundamental repair [17] - **Rubber**: Natural rubber prices fell on Monday. Supply - side factors supported the price, while the demand side was weak. The inventory in Qingdao continued to increase, and the short - term trend is expected to continue to decline [18] 3.3.3 Metals - **Precious Metals**: Gold prices weakened continuously, and silver also corrected. The strengthening of the US dollar index and the reduction of risk - aversion sentiment led to the decline. The long - term driving force for gold still exists, but the prices may fluctuate [19] - **Copper**: Copper prices rose at night. The low processing fees of concentrates and low copper prices test smelting production. The downstream demand is generally stable, and copper prices may fluctuate within a range [20] - **Zinc**: Zinc prices rose at night. The processing fees of concentrates continued to rise. The market expects an improvement in supply, and zinc prices may fluctuate widely [21] - **Lithium Carbonate**: Lithium carbonate prices rose significantly due to mining qualification issues in Jiangxi and then fell sharply. The production increased slightly, and the inventory continued to rise. The short - term core contradiction lies in warehouse receipts, and the medium - term upside is limited [22] 3.3.4 Black Metals - **Iron Ore**: The demand for iron ore is supported by the profit - driven production of steel mills. The global iron ore shipment has decreased recently, and the port inventory is decreasing rapidly. The supply - demand imbalance pressure is large in the medium term, and the price is expected to be bullish with fluctuations [24] - **Steel**: The supply pressure of steel is gradually emerging, but the supply - demand contradiction is not significant. The export of billets is strong. The market is affected by macro - expectations and raw material sentiment, and the price is expected to be bullish with fluctuations [25] - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The daily hot metal output decreased slightly, and the profitability of steel mills increased slightly. The inventory of coking coal in steel mills and coking plants increased, while the inventory of coking coal in mines decreased. The price is expected to fluctuate within a range after the correction [3][26] 3.3.5 Agricultural Products - **Soybean and Rapeseed Meal**: The night - session of soybean and rapeseed meal traded weakly. The US soybean good - to - excellent rate was lower than expected, and the export prospects are uncertain. The price of soybean meal is expected to have limited downside [27] - **Oils and Fats**: Oils and fats closed up at night. The fundamental data of Indonesia is positive, and the export of palm oil to the EU is expected to increase. The production and export data of Malaysian palm oil are negative in the short term, but the price is expected to rise slowly in the long term [28] 3.3.6 Shipping Index - **Container Shipping to Europe**: The EC index fluctuated, and the 10 - contract closed down 1.84%. The SCFIS European line index decreased, and the spot freight rate is showing signs of decline. The market is waiting to see the extent and slope of the freight rate correction [30]

Group 1: Economic Overview - The U.S. Treasury Department expects a net borrowing of nearly $1.01 trillion in Q3, an increase of over $450 billion compared to previous estimates, primarily due to the debt ceiling increase and accelerated bond issuance [1] - The auction of 5-year U.S. Treasury bonds was unexpectedly weak, with overseas demand hitting a three-year low, and the bid-to-cover ratio indicating increased market pressure [1] Group 2: Stock Market Insights - U.S. stock indices showed mixed performance, with the defense and military sector leading gains, while the coal sector adjusted; market turnover reached 1.77 trillion yuan [2] - The financing balance increased by 5.472 billion yuan, indicating a growing interest in long-term investments in the capital market, which may help reduce stock market volatility [2] - The A-share market is considered to have high investment value, particularly in the CSI 500 and CSI 1000 indices, which are supported by technology policies [2] Group 3: Commodity Market Analysis - Daily average pig iron production slightly decreased to 2.4223 million tons, while steel mill profitability rose to 63.64%; coke production showed improvement [3][23] - The price increase in coke has stimulated downstream replenishment demand, with inventories rising for four consecutive weeks [3][23] - The crude oil market saw a 2.06% increase, influenced by a new trade agreement between the U.S. and the EU, which includes significant investments in U.S. energy [4][11] Group 4: Industry-Specific Developments - The German government plans to approve a record investment of 126.7 billion euros in its 2026 budget, focusing on infrastructure and defense [5] - The Chinese Ministry of Agriculture emphasized the importance of rural revitalization and urbanization, aiming to improve living conditions in rural areas by 2035 [6] - The paper industry in Guangdong has initiated a "anti-involution" initiative to resist low-price competition and protect market integrity [8]

Market Performance - The three major US stock indices closed mixed, with the Dow Jones down 0.7%, the S&P 500 up 0.07%, and the Nasdaq up 0.18% [1] - Popular tech stocks showed mixed results, with Tesla down over 8%, IBM down over 7%, while Nvidia, Amazon, and Broadcom rose over 1% [1] - Chinese concept stocks closed mostly lower, with the Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index down 1.54%, Miniso up over 8%, XPeng up over 1%, while Baidu, Li Auto, and Bilibili fell over 2% and 4% respectively [1] European Market - European stock indices closed mixed, with Germany's DAX up 0.23%, France's CAC40 down 0.41%, and the UK's FTSE 100 up 0.85% [1] Commodity Prices - International precious metal futures generally fell, with COMEX gold futures down 0.77% at $3371.3 per ounce and COMEX silver futures down 0.55% at $39.285 per ounce [1] - International oil prices saw slight gains, with the main US oil contract up 1.39% at $66.16 per barrel and Brent crude up 0.96% at $68.48 per barrel [1] Currency and Debt Markets - The US dollar index rose 0.29% to 97.49, while the offshore RMB against the US dollar fell by 35 basis points to 7.1555 [1] - US Treasury yields collectively rose, with the 2-year yield up 4.89 basis points to 3.918%, the 3-year yield up 4.48 basis points to 3.869%, the 5-year yield up 3.52 basis points to 3.961%, the 10-year yield up 1.79 basis points to 4.398%, and the 30-year yield up 0.21 basis points to 4.940% [1] - European bond yields mostly increased, with France's 10-year yield up 7.9 basis points to 3.376%, Germany's 10-year yield up 6.3 basis points to 2.699%, Italy's 10-year yield up 8.9 basis points to 3.548%, Spain's 10-year yield up 7.8 basis points to 3.304%, while the UK's 10-year yield fell by 1.2 basis points to 4.620% [1]