⑧伦敦基本金属全线上涨，LME期镍涨8.39%报18430.0美元/吨，LME期锡涨4.79%报44500.0美元/吨， LME期铅涨2.35%报2071.0美元/吨，LME期铜涨2.02%报13254.5美元/吨，LME期锌涨1.58%报3245.5美 元/吨，LME期铝涨1.56%报3133.5美元/吨； ⑨美债收益率集体上涨，2年期美债收益率涨1.04个基点报3.463%，3年期美债收益率涨0.84个基点报 3.528%，5年期美债收益率涨0.69个基点报3.713%，10年期美债收益率涨0.79个基点报4.173%，30年期 美债收益率涨0.3个基点报4.863%； ⑩欧债收益率集体下跌，英国10年期国债收益率跌2.5个基点报4.479%，法国10年期国债收益率跌1.9个 基点报3.552%，德国10年期国债收益率跌2.8个基点报2.840%，意大利10年期国债收益率跌3.5个基点报 3.531%，西班牙10年期国债收益率跌2.9个基点报3.269%。 ④欧洲三大股指收盘全线上涨，德国DAX指数涨0.27%报24936.46点，法国CAC40指数涨0.32%报 8237.43点，英国富时100指数涨1 ...

【资讯导读】 ·美联储官员：目前可能已接近"中性利率" ·阻止购买俄石油特朗普再次威胁对印度提高关税 ·受美封锁影响委内瑞拉被迫削减原油产量 ·法国民众消费降温 ·2026年FOMC票委、明尼阿波利斯联储总裁卡什卡利表示，目前美国利率水平可能已接近"中性利率"， 未来美联储政策走向将取决于最新经济数据。 ·美联储前主席耶伦警告称，庞大的债务规模可能迫使央行将利率维持在低位以降低偿债成本，而非专 注于遏制通胀。据美国国会预算办公室预计，美国赤字今年将达1.9万亿美元，债务占GDP比重将升至 100%并持续攀升。 ·美国总统特朗普4日警告，如果印度不按美方要求限制购买俄罗斯石油，美国可能继续提高对印度产品 征收的关税。 ·美国对委内瑞拉继续实施石油禁运令，以迫使对方在政治上屈服，令其视作经济支柱的石油出口陷于 停滞。据路透社报道，委内瑞拉国家石油公司已在酝酿减产，因为一来出口受阻，二来储油设施已 快"满仓"。 ·瑞士联邦委员会5日发表声明说，瑞士决定冻结委内瑞拉总统马杜罗及相关人员在瑞士持有的所有资 产。此项资产冻结令立即生效，有效期暂定为4年。 ·多家市场机构最新调查显示，2025年节日消费季法国人价格敏感度明 ...

⑥美油主力合约收涨0.03%报58.4美元/桶，布油主力合约跌0.05%报61.84美元/桶； ⑦纽约尾盘，美元指数涨0.06%报97.95，离岸人民币兑美元涨117.5个基点报7.0076； ①美国三大股指普遍收涨，道指涨0.6%报48731.16点，标普500指数涨0.32%报6932.05点，纳指涨0.22% 报23613.31点； ②大型科技股涨跌不一，脸书涨0.39%，苹果涨0.53%，微软涨0.24%，亚马逊涨0.10%，英伟达跌 0.32%，特斯拉跌0.03%，谷歌跌0.08%； ③中概股涨跌不一，再鼎医药涨超6%，阿特斯太阳能涨逾1%，搜狐涨超1%，比特小鹿涨逾1%，拼多 多涨超1%。脑再生跌逾2%，硕迪生物跌超2%，霸王茶姬跌逾1%，金山云跌超1%，好未来跌逾1%； ④周三欧洲股市多数休市，英国、法国股市为半日市。法国CAC40指数收平，报8103.58点；英国富时 100指数收跌0.19%，报9870.68点； ⑤COMEX黄金期货收跌0.01%报4505.4美元/盎司；COMEX白银期货收涨1.04%报71.875美元/盎司； ⑧伦敦基本金属涨跌不一，LME期铜涨0.6%报12133美元 ...

转自：新华财经 【资讯导读】 •特朗普呼吁新任美联储主席"择机降息" •意大利通过争议预算案 拟将央行黄金"国有化" •美国Q3 GDP增速创两年新高 初值达4.3%远超预期 【市场资讯】 •美国总统特朗普发文表示，希望下一任美联储主席在经济与市场表现强劲时果断降息，而非因通胀担 忧过早收紧政策。他批评当前市场逻辑扭曲——"好消息反成利空"，强调低利率有助于推高股市、刺激 经济并缓解住房负担，并称股市繁荣或可带动美国GDP年增幅达10%至20%。 •意大利参议院通过2026年预算案，其中包含一项将央行持有的2453吨黄金"归全体国民所有"的修正条 款。此举已遭欧洲央行两次警告，批评者担忧黄金储备或被用于填补财政缺口，威胁央行独立性与金融 稳定。 •美国第三季度实际GDP年化季环比初值录得4.3%，显著高于市场预期的3.3%，为2023年以来最快增 速，显示经济韧性依然强劲。 •美国第三季度核心PCE物价指数年化季率初值上涨2.9%，与预期一致，较第二季度终值2.6%有所回 升；整体PCE物价指数初值上涨2.8%，亦符合预期，表明通胀仍处于温和上行通道。 •受运输设备需求疲软拖累，美国10月耐用品订单环比下降2 ...

转自：新华财经 【资讯导读】 •特朗普拟明年1月敲定美联储新主席人选 •美联储理事米兰警告：暂停降息或触发衰退 •欧盟延长对俄制裁至2026年7月 强化反规避机制 •日本财相：保留对汇率异常波动"大胆干预"权 【市场资讯】 •美国总统特朗普计划于2026年1月第一周正式提名下一任美联储主席。现任主席鲍威尔的四年任期将于 2026年5月结束。特朗普此前强调，希望继任者支持"增长友好型"货币政策，以促进经济扩张。 •美国财政部长贝森特表示，通胀正稳步向美联储2%的目标靠拢，预计2026年将成为经济增长与物价稳 定同步改善的一年。他指出，随着政府精简职位、提升效率，整体经济状况将进一步优化。 •美联储理事米兰警告称，若2026年停止降息，可能增加经济陷入衰退的风险。尽管当前尚无明显下行 迹象，但他强调，失业率上升应促使政策制定者继续采取宽松立场。 •克利夫兰联储主席哈马克表示，在美联储连续三次降息后，未来几个月利率政策应保持稳定。她曾反 对近期降息，认为当前主要风险仍是通胀顽固，而非就业市场疲软。 •欧盟决定将对俄罗斯的全面经济制裁延长六个月，有效期至2026年7月31日，涵盖贸易、金融、能源、 技术及运输等多个关 ...

【资讯导读】 ·中国外汇市场平稳运行跨境资金流动趋稳 ·美国财长乐观展望2026年经济前景 ·纽约联储主席：暂无降息紧迫性 ·日本央行加息至30年高点释放紧缩信号 ·全球市场步入"圣诞休市周" 【市场资讯】 ·国家外汇局数据显示，11月银行结售汇顺差为157亿美元，与10月基本持平；跨境收支顺差178亿美 元，略低于9–10月平均240亿美元水平。近期证券投资项下资金流动更趋平稳，显示外汇市场运行总体 稳健。 ·美国总统特朗普签署行政令，明确要求确保美国"太空优势"：2028年前实现载人重返月球，2030年前 建成月球前哨站初步架构，并部署月面核反应堆，同时探索在太空中部署核武器的可能性。 ·美国财政部长贝森特表示，通胀正稳步向美联储2%目标靠拢，预计2026年将成为经济增长与通胀走势 同步改善之年。他指出，随着政府职位精简，整体经济状况有望进一步优化。 ·纽约联储主席威廉姆斯强调，基于最新就业与通胀数据，当前并无再次降息的紧迫需求，进一步巩固 市场对美联储短期内暂停降息的预期。 ·美联储理事哈马克表示，未来数月无需调整利率，倾向在春季前保持政策稳定。她认为中性利率可能 高于市场普遍预期，并强调当前更需关注顽 ...

Market Performance - The three major US stock indices closed lower, with the Dow Jones down 0.47% at 47,885.97 points, the S&P 500 down 1.16% at 6,721.43 points, and the Nasdaq down 1.81% at 22,693.32 points [1] - Major tech stocks collectively declined, with Tesla down over 4%, Nvidia down nearly 4%, Google down over 3%, Apple and Facebook down over 1%, Amazon down 0.58%, and Microsoft down 0.06% [1] - Most Chinese concept stocks fell, with Century Internet down over 3%, NIO down over 3%, Li Auto down over 3%, Pony.ai down nearly 3%, and Global Data down over 3%. However, Wanwu Xingsheng rose nearly 3%, Zai Ding Pharmaceutical rose over 1%, and Yum China rose nearly 1% [1] - European stock indices had mixed results, with Germany's DAX down 0.02% at 24,072.25 points, France's CAC40 down 0.25% at 8,086.05 points, and the UK's FTSE 100 up 0.92% at 9,774.32 points [1] Commodity Prices - US oil futures rose by 2.92% to $56.74 per barrel, while Brent crude oil futures increased by 2.85% to $60.60 per barrel [1] - International precious metal futures generally rose, with COMEX gold futures up 0.90% at $4,371.40 per ounce and COMEX silver futures up 4.92% at $66.44 per ounce [1] - London base metals saw an overall increase, with LME tin up 3.05% at $42,275.00 per ton, LME copper up 1.30% at $11,742.50 per ton, LME aluminum up 1.03% at $2,906.00 per ton, LME zinc up 0.99% at $3,071.50 per ton, LME lead up 0.98% at $1,961.00 per ton, and LME nickel up 0.72% at $14,365.00 per ton [1] Bond Yields - US Treasury yields were mixed, with the 2-year yield up 0.43 basis points at 3.483%, the 3-year yield unchanged at 3.528%, the 5-year yield up 0.36 basis points at 3.698%, the 10-year yield up 1.36 basis points at 4.153%, and the 30-year yield up 1.72 basis points at 4.827% [1] - European bond yields mostly increased, with the UK 10-year yield down 4.4 basis points at 4.473%, France's 10-year yield up 2.4 basis points at 3.570%, Germany's 10-year yield up 1.9 basis points at 2.861%, Italy's 10-year yield up 2.4 basis points at 3.566%, and Spain's 10-year yield up 1.8 basis points at 3.296% [1]

①美国三大股指收盘涨跌不一，道指跌0.62%报48114.26点，标普500指数跌0.24%报6800.26点，纳指涨 0.23%报23111.46点； ②美国大型科技股多数上涨，特斯拉涨超3%，脸书涨超1%，英伟达涨0.81%，微软涨0.33%，苹果涨 0.18%，亚马逊涨0.01%，谷歌跌0.51%； ③热门中概股涨跌不一，知乎涨超3%，金山云涨超2%，爱奇艺、网易、世纪互联、拼多多跌超1%； ④欧洲三大股指收盘全线下跌，德国DAX指数跌0.68%报24064.06点，法国CAC40指数跌0.23%报 8106.16点，英国富时100指数跌0.68%报9684.79点； ⑤美油主力合约收跌2.89%，报55.18美元/桶；布伦特原油主力合约跌2.79%，报58.87美元/桶； ⑥国际贵金属期货收盘涨跌不一，COMEX黄金期货跌0.07%报4332.2美元/盎司，COMEX白银期货涨 0.32%报63.80美元/盎司； ⑦纽约尾盘，美元指数跌0.06%报98.22，离岸人民币对美元涨73个基点报7.0361； ⑧伦敦基本金属涨跌参半，LME期锌跌1.89%报3035.00美元/吨，LME期镍跌0.63%报1 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The 10-year US Treasury yield is expected to continue to rise slightly this week due to factors such as the risk of a "hawkish rate cut" by the Fed, market concerns about inflation control under a potential radical rate cut scenario, and the ongoing fermentation of the Bank of Japan's December rate hike expectation [7][8]. Summary by Directory 1. Last Week's US Treasury Yield Trend Review - In the week of December 1, 2025, the 10-year US Treasury yield increased significantly. On Monday, the Bank of Japan's clear rate hike signal and a large number of corporate bond issuances led to a 7bp increase to 4.09%. On Tuesday, it remained unchanged at 4.09%. On Wednesday, the unexpected decrease in US private sector employment in November pushed it down 3bp to 4.06%. On Thursday, factors like low initial jobless claims and a record high in US government debt led to a 6bp increase to 4.11%. On Friday, a rebound in the December Michigan consumer confidence index caused a 3bp increase to 4.14%, a 12bp increase compared to November 28 [1]. 2. Short-Term Trend Outlook - This week, the 10-year US Treasury yield may continue to rise slightly. The market has fully priced in a 25bp rate cut by the Fed in the December meeting, but the risk of a "hawkish rate cut" is high. Concerns about inflation control under a potential radical rate cut by "shadow chairman" Hassett and the Bank of Japan's rate hike expectation will also push up the yield [7][8]. 3. 10Y - 2Y Yield Spread - As of December 5, compared with November 28, all maturities of US Treasury yields except the 1-year yield increased. The 10Y - 2Y US Treasury term spread widened 3bp to 58bp [9]. 4. Sino-US Yield Spread - As of December 5, compared with November 28, the inversion of the Sino-US 10-year Treasury yield spread widened 11bp to 229bp. In the short term, the 10-year US Treasury yield will continue to rise slightly, while the 10-year Chinese Treasury yield is expected to fluctuate within a narrow range, so the deep inversion will continue [12].

Market Performance - The three major U.S. stock indices experienced slight gains, with the Dow Jones up 0.22% at 47954.99 points, the S&P 500 up 0.19% at 6870.4 points, and the Nasdaq up 0.31% at 23578.13 points [1] - Major tech stocks mostly rose, with Facebook increasing nearly 2%, Google up over 1%, Microsoft up 0.48%, Amazon up 0.18%, and Tesla up 0.1%. However, Apple fell 0.68% and Nvidia dropped 0.53% [1] - Chinese concept stocks saw most of them rise, with Baidu Group up nearly 6%, Qifu Technology up over 4%, and several others also showing gains, while Tuya Smart fell nearly 4% and others like Artis Solar and Pony.ai dropped over 2% [1] European Market - European stock indices closed mixed, with Germany's DAX index up 0.73% at 24056.06 points, while France's CAC40 index fell 0.09% to 8114.74 points, and the UK's FTSE 100 index dropped 0.45% to 9667.01 points [1] Commodity Prices - U.S. oil futures rose 0.79% to $60.14 per barrel, while Brent crude oil futures increased by 1.01% to $63.9 per barrel [1] - International precious metal futures had mixed results, with COMEX gold futures down 0.36% at $4227.7 per ounce and COMEX silver futures up 2.28% at $58.8 per ounce [1] Currency and Bond Markets - The U.S. dollar index fell 0.08% to 98.98, while the offshore RMB against the U.S. dollar rose by 23 basis points to 7.0691 [1] - U.S. Treasury yields collectively increased, with the 2-year yield up 4.18 basis points to 3.560%, the 10-year yield up 3.89 basis points to 4.137%, and the 30-year yield up 3.91 basis points to 4.792% [1] - European bond yields mostly rose, with the UK 10-year yield up 4.2 basis points to 4.475%, while the German 10-year yield increased by 2.7 basis points to 2.796% [1]