【资讯导读】 ·特朗普签署AI行政令推动联邦数据驱动创新 ·美国GDP预估发布因政府停摆取消 ·欧盟批准2026年预算：聚焦国防、移民与竞争力 ·欧洲央行在最新《金融稳定评估》中警告，稳定币正分流欧元区零售存款，若遭遇"挤兑"，可能危及 全球金融稳定。报告指出，其实际用途多集中于加密资产交易，而非设计初衷的支付与储值。 【市场资讯】 ·美国经济分析局取消原定10月30日发布的第三季度GDP预估值，原因系联邦政府停摆。备受美联储关 注的PCE价格指数及个人收入与支出报告，现定于当地时间12月5日上午10点发布。 ·美国总统特朗普签署行政命令，加速人工智能发展，要求构建国家级AI平台，整合并开放联邦科学数 据集以促进技术突破。 ·美国商务部长卢特尼克称，欧盟必须修改数字法规，美方才会下调钢铝关税；欧盟则坚决回应，科技 与税收规则不在贸易谈判范畴内。 ·美联储理事沃勒表示，疲软的劳动力市场数据支持12月降息。他警告称，会后密集发布的延迟经济报 告可能使明年1月的政策决定更加复杂。 ·欧盟理事会24日通过2026年财政预算，总额1928亿欧元，支出上限1901亿欧元。预算重点投向国防、 移民管控和经济竞争力，并预留7 ...

Market Performance - The three major U.S. stock indices closed mixed, with the Dow Jones up 0.68% at 48,254.82 points, the S&P 500 up 0.06% at 6,850.92 points, and the Nasdaq down 0.26% at 23,406.46 points [1] - Major tech stocks showed mixed results, with AMD rising 9%, while Oracle and Tesla fell over 3% and 2% respectively [1] - Most popular Chinese stocks declined, with XPeng, NIO, iQIYI, and Baidu dropping over 2%, and Li Auto, Alibaba, and JD.com falling over 1% [1] - European stock indices all closed higher, with Germany's DAX up 1.22% at 24,381.46 points, France's CAC40 up 1.04% at 8,241.24 points, and the UK's FTSE 100 up 0.12% at 9,911.42 points [1] Commodity Prices - U.S. oil futures fell 4.19% to $58.48 per barrel, while Brent crude oil futures dropped 3.74% to $62.72 per barrel [1] - International precious metal futures generally rose, with COMEX gold futures up 2.07% at $4,201.40 per ounce and COMEX silver futures up 4.90% at $53.23 per ounce [1] - Most London base metals increased, with LME tin up 2.15% at $37,405.00 per ton, LME lead up 1.38% at $2,092.00 per ton, and LME copper up 0.65% at $10,897.00 per ton [1] Bond Market - U.S. Treasury yields were mixed, with the 2-year yield up 1.67 basis points at 3.568%, the 3-year yield up 2.39 basis points at 3.558%, and the 5-year yield up 1.04 basis points at 3.672%, while the 10-year yield remained flat at 4.067% and the 30-year yield fell 0.29 basis points to 4.665% [1] - European bond yields mostly declined, with the UK 10-year yield up 1.1 basis points at 4.397%, while France's 10-year yield fell 4.7 basis points to 3.375%, Germany's 10-year yield down 1.5 basis points to 2.642%, Italy's down 2.9 basis points to 3.369%, and Spain's down 2.4 basis points to 3.138% [1]

Economic Impact - The White House economic advisor Hassett stated that the government "shutdown" could have a far greater impact on the U.S. economy than previously expected, potentially causing long-term damage to government efficiency and leading to a slowdown in Q4 GDP growth [1] - U.S. Treasury Secretary Basant indicated that if the "shutdown" continues, economic growth in Q4 could be halved [1] Federal Reserve Insights - Federal Reserve Vice Chairman Jefferson suggested that the Fed should be more cautious in future policy actions as interest rates are closer to neutral levels [2] - New York Fed President Williams mentioned that the Fed may soon need to expand its balance sheet through asset purchases to meet liquidity needs, although this does not indicate a change in monetary policy stance [2] - St. Louis Fed President Bullard projected that monetary policy is in a moderately tight to neutral range, with 50 to 75 basis points of policy adjustment space remaining if rates decline further [2] Consumer Confidence - The preliminary consumer confidence index from the University of Michigan for November is at 50.3, marking the lowest level since June 2022 [3] Global Market Dynamics - The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose by 0.16% to 46,987.1 points, while the S&P 500 increased by 0.13% to 6,728.8 points. The Nasdaq Composite fell by 0.21% to 23,004.54 points [4] - COMEX gold futures rose by 0.42% to $4,007.8 per ounce, and silver futures increased by 0.57% to $48.225 per ounce [5] Oil and Bond Market - The main contract for U.S. oil rose by 0.69% to $59.84 per barrel, while Brent crude increased by 0.47% to $63.68 per barrel [6] - The 2-year U.S. Treasury yield rose by 0.43 basis points to 3.560%, the 5-year yield increased by 0.52 basis points to 3.682%, the 10-year yield rose by 1.54 basis points to 4.097%, and the 30-year yield increased by 2.04 basis points to 4.699% [6]

Market Performance - The three major U.S. stock indices experienced slight gains, with the Dow Jones up 0.09%, the S&P 500 up 0.26%, and the Nasdaq up 0.61% [1] - Major tech stocks showed mixed results, with Amazon rising over 9%, Tesla up over 4%, and Netflix up over 2%. In contrast, Meta fell over 2%, and Microsoft dropped over 1% [1] - Popular Chinese concept stocks had varied performances, with NIO up over 3%, Xpeng up over 2%, and iQIYI up nearly 2%. Alibaba fell over 2%, and JD.com dropped nearly 1% [1] - European major stock indices all declined, with the UK FTSE 100 down 0.44%, Germany's DAX down 0.67%, and France's CAC40 down 0.44% [1] Commodity Prices - U.S. oil futures rose by 0.51%, closing at $60.88 per barrel, while Brent crude futures increased by 0.33%, closing at $64.58 per barrel [1] - International precious metal futures generally fell, with COMEX gold futures down 0.06% at $4013.40 per ounce and COMEX silver futures down 0.75% at $48.25 per ounce [1] - Most London base metals saw increases, with LME tin up 1.08% at $36,180.00 per ton, LME aluminum up 0.86% at $2,888.00 per ton, and LME zinc up 0.41% at $3,050.00 per ton. LME copper, however, fell 0.23% to $10,891.50 per ton [1] Bond Market - U.S. Treasury yields collectively declined, with the 2-year yield down 3.46 basis points at 3.574%, the 3-year yield down 2.80 basis points at 3.581%, the 5-year yield down 2.07 basis points at 3.694%, the 10-year yield down 1.37 basis points at 4.083%, and the 30-year yield down 0.38 basis points at 4.651% [1] - European bond yields mostly decreased, with the UK 10-year yield down 1.4 basis points at 4.408%, France's 10-year yield up 0.4 basis points at 3.420%, Germany's 10-year yield down 1.1 basis points at 2.631%, Italy's 10-year yield down 1.5 basis points at 3.381%, and Spain's 10-year yield down 1 basis point at 3.140% [1]

Group 1 - The IMF projects that the U.S. government debt will exceed 143.4% of GDP by 2030, increasing by over 20 percentage points from current levels [1] - U.S. Treasury Secretary Yellen praised Japan's expansionary fiscal policy during a meeting with Japan's Finance Minister, although no discussions on monetary policy details took place [1] - The negotiations between South Korea and the U.S. regarding a $350 billion investment project are currently stalled, with key issues such as investment methods, amounts, and timelines still under dispute [2] Group 2 - Argentina's ruling coalition led by President Milei won the midterm elections, alleviating investor concerns about potential stagnation in economic reforms [2] - The German business climate index rose from 87.7 to 88.4 in October, indicating improvements in manufacturing, services, and trade, despite a decline in business satisfaction for the third consecutive month [2] Group 3 - The Dow Jones Industrial Average increased by 0.71% to 47,544.59 points, while the S&P 500 rose by 1.23% to 6,875.16 points, and the Nasdaq Composite climbed by 1.86% to 23,637.46 points, all reaching new historical highs [3] - COMEX gold futures fell by 3.40% to $3,997.00 per ounce, and silver futures dropped by 3.61% to $46.83 per ounce [4] Group 4 - U.S. oil futures rose by 0.08% to $61.55 per barrel, while Brent crude futures decreased by 0.09% to $65.14 per barrel [5] - The 2-year U.S. Treasury yield fell by 0.64 basis points to 3.482%, with similar declines observed across other maturities [5] Group 5 - The U.S. dollar index decreased by 0.12% to 98.82, while the euro and British pound appreciated against the dollar [6]

Market Performance - The three major U.S. stock indices all closed higher, with the Dow Jones up 0.71% at 47,544.59 points, the S&P 500 up 1.23% at 6,875.16 points, and the Nasdaq up 1.86% at 23,637.46 points [1] - Major U.S. tech stocks saw collective gains, with Tesla rising over 4%, Google up more than 3%, Nvidia nearly 3%, Apple over 2%, Facebook up more than 1%, and Microsoft and Amazon both rising over 1% [1] - Chinese concept stocks mostly increased, with Daqo New Energy up over 14%, Xpeng Motors up over 6%, Pony.ai up over 6%, JinkoSolar up over 5%, and Baidu Group nearly 5% [1] European Market Performance - European stock indices also closed higher, with Germany's DAX index up 0.27% at 24,304.52 points, France's CAC40 index up 0.19% at 8,241.64 points, and the UK's FTSE 100 index up 0.09% at 9,653.82 points [1] Commodity Prices - International precious metal futures generally declined, with COMEX gold futures down 3.40% at $3,997.00 per ounce and COMEX silver futures down 3.61% at $46.83 per ounce [1] - U.S. oil main contract rose 0.08% to $61.55 per barrel, while Brent crude oil main contract fell 0.09% to $65.14 per barrel [1] - London base metals mostly increased, with LME zinc up 0.93% at $3,053.50 per ton, LME tin up 0.55% at $36,000.00 per ton, and LME lead up 0.45% at $2,025.50 per ton [1] Bond Market - U.S. Treasury yields collectively fell, with the 2-year yield down 0.64 basis points at 3.482%, the 3-year yield down 1.40 basis points at 3.480%, and the 10-year yield down 3.46 basis points at 3.976% [1] - European bond yields also decreased, with the UK 10-year yield down 3 basis points at 4.400%, France's 10-year yield down 1.7 basis points at 3.414%, and Germany's 10-year yield down 1.1 basis points at 2.614% [1]

Core Insights - China's foreign exchange receipts reached a record high of $11.6 trillion in the first three quarters, with a slight net outflow of $3.1 billion in September, which turned into a net inflow in October [1][5]. Market Developments - Indonesia plans to issue offshore RMB-denominated sovereign bonds for the first time, with maturities of 5 and 10 years, marking its entry into the dim sum bond market [2]. - The U.S. government has been in a shutdown for 22 days due to unresolved issues regarding medical subsidies, with potential continuation into November [2]. - Japan's Prime Minister has ordered a new round of economic measures, potentially exceeding last year's ¥13.9 trillion, aimed at alleviating inflationary pressures on households and businesses [5]. - The global physical gold ETFs saw the largest monthly inflow ever in September, with total inflows for the third quarter reaching a record $26 billion, bringing total assets under management to $472 billion [5]. - Japan's exports in September grew by 4.2% year-on-year, marking the first expansion in five months, although exports to the U.S. decreased by 13.3% [6]. - The U.S. federal debt surpassed $38 trillion for the first time, increasing by $1 trillion in just over two months [5]. Financial Market Trends - The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell by 0.71%, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite also experienced declines of 0.53% and 0.93%, respectively [8]. - COMEX gold futures rose by 0.18% to $4,116.60 per ounce, and silver futures increased by 1.00% to $48.18 per ounce [9]. - Crude oil prices saw significant increases, with U.S. oil rising by 3.74% to $59.38 per barrel and Brent crude up by 4.94% to $64.35 per barrel [10].

Market Insights - The Dow Jones Industrial Average increased by 0.47% to 46,924.74 points, while the S&P 500 remained flat at 6,735.35 points, and the Nasdaq Composite decreased by 0.16% to 22,953.67 points [2] - The Nikkei 225 index closed above 49,000 points for the first time, rising by 3.37%, and the TOPIX index increased by 2.46% [3] Commodity and Currency Movements - COMEX gold futures fell by 5.07% to $4,138.5 per ounce, and COMEX silver futures dropped by 6.27% to $48.16 per ounce, with spot gold experiencing its largest single-day decline in over 12 years [3] - Crude oil prices saw an increase, with the main contract for WTI rising by 0.98% to $57.58 per barrel, and Brent crude increasing by 1.07% to $61.66 per barrel [4] - The U.S. dollar index rose by 0.35% to 98.97, while the euro and British pound both depreciated against the dollar [4]

Group 1 - The U.S. Senate failed to pass a funding bill for the 11th time, with a vote of 50 in favor and 43 against, not reaching the required 60 votes [1] - The U.S. National Nuclear Security Administration has begun mandatory furloughs for most employees, marking the first time this has occurred since its establishment [1] - The U.S. and Australia signed an agreement to enhance cooperation on rare earths and critical minerals, aiming to streamline approval processes for mining and processing facilities [1] Group 2 - Argentina's central bank announced a $20 billion currency swap agreement with the U.S. Treasury [2] - The Bank of Korea has not considered a currency swap with the U.S. Treasury, according to its governor [3] Group 3 - The CFETS RMB exchange rate index fell by 0.24% to 97.08, while the BIS currency basket RMB exchange rate index decreased by 0.36% to 103.07 [5] - The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose by 1.12% to 46,706.58 points, and the S&P 500 increased by 1.07% to 6,735.13 points [5] Group 4 - COMEX gold futures increased by 3.82% to $4,374.30 per ounce, and silver futures rose by 2.59% to $51.40 per ounce [6] - U.S. oil futures fell by 0.38% to $56.93 per barrel, while Brent crude oil futures decreased by 0.57% to $60.94 per barrel [7]

Market Overview - Global markets experienced significant declines, with European stock markets dropping across the board, including a more than 2% drop in the German DAX index and over 1.5% in the UK FTSE 100 index [1][4] - U.S. stock index futures also saw sharp declines, with the Nasdaq 100 futures dropping over 1.5% at one point, while the S&P 500 and Dow futures fell over 1% [1][4] Cryptocurrency Market - The cryptocurrency market faced a major sell-off, with Bitcoin dropping over 5%, Ethereum falling over 6%, and BNB plummeting over 12% [2][5] - Over 30,000 traders experienced liquidation in the crypto market, with total liquidation amounts nearing $1.2 billion, predominantly from long positions [5] Safe-Haven Assets - Investors shifted towards safe-haven assets, leading to a rise in gold and U.S. Treasury bonds, as concerns over regional bank failures and ongoing trade tensions heightened risk aversion [2][5] - The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury bond fell below 4%, reaching a low of 3.936%, the lowest level since April 7 [2][5] Economic Concerns - The International Monetary Fund (IMF) highlighted rising risks in the global financial system, including trade policy uncertainty and overvaluation of risk assets, which could lead to disorderly market adjustments [7][8] - The IMF's report indicated that asset prices are significantly above fundamental values, particularly in the stock market and corporate credit, raising concerns about potential sharp corrections [8] Market Sentiment - The market sentiment is increasingly cautious, with a focus on negative news and a growing expectation for the Federal Reserve to ease policies due to rising credit-related uncertainties [7] - Analysts noted that the concentration of market performance in a few stocks, particularly in the AI sector, poses additional risks as valuations approach historically high levels [8]