羊城晚报周末特约主笔 谢不明 1月23日，日本国会2026年常例会的第一天，首相高市早苗递交了所有内阁签字的众议院解散决议书。 这是日本60年来首次在国会刚开幕就解散众议院。年度财政预算等重要议题被迫搁浅，高市为了自己的 政治利益一意孤行。 上台三个多月以来，高市早苗动作频繁：推动18万亿日元补充预算通过并实施；积极推进对美5500亿美 元投资落地。一系列高调表态及行动，叠加民众对首位女首相尚未褪去的新鲜感，高市的支持率罕见地 不停抬升，媒体的统计数据都在70%以上，年轻群体的支持率甚至冲破80%。 据说，"中道"近期和前首相石破茂进行了沟通，还呼吁自民党偏中间立场的党员脱党加入"中道"。这场 牌局戏码满满，值得期待。 编辑：邬嘉宏 但这更像是高市早苗一个人的豪赌。一周前高市宣布计划解散众议院，并没有提前征询麻生太郎等党内 高层的意见，连负责党内选举事务的干事长也是从新闻里获知消息，前首相菅义伟也以身体为由宣布退 出接下来的众议院选举。缺乏党内同僚的支持，再加上"政治黑金"事件的影响仍未消退，独上牌桌的高 市，手里并没有其他好牌。 回顾高市早苗的政治生涯，这正是她一贯的"独狼"风格。近期她宣称，如果这次众议院 ...

Core Viewpoint - The political scandal involving "black money" continues to plague Japan, with Prime Minister Sanna Takichi apologizing for her party's violations regarding corporate donations, highlighting ongoing issues of corruption within the ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) [1][2]. Group 1: Political Scandal and Reactions - Prime Minister Sanna Takichi's apology was brief, acknowledging the receipt of donations exceeding legal limits and stating that the excess had been returned [2][3]. - The opposition party, Constitutional Democratic Party, has been vocally questioning Takichi about the "black money" issue, indicating a lack of trust among the public [1][2]. - The Komeito party, which recently ended a 26-year alliance with the LDP, has also criticized the government, questioning its integrity [1]. Group 2: Financial Violations - The LDP's Nara Prefecture branch, represented by Takichi, received 2.5 million yen (approximately 110,000 RMB) in donations that exceeded legal limits, raising concerns about the party's financial practices [2][3]. - The political funding management group associated with Takichi reported total income of 200 million yen (approximately 9.03 million RMB) for 2024, making the excess donations seem minor in comparison [3][4]. - The LDP's financial reports revealed significant expenditures on advertising, totaling 83.84 million yen (approximately 3.78 million RMB), raising questions about the transparency of political funding [4]. Group 3: Historical Context and Systemic Issues - The "black money" issue is not new and has been a recurring problem in Japanese politics, with systemic corruption being a significant barrier to political stability [9][10]. - A report indicated that 85 members of the LDP had failed to declare taxes, with some cases dating back over 20 years, suggesting a long-standing culture of financial misconduct [10]. - The recent changes in leadership, with three prime ministers in over a year, reflect the ongoing turmoil and the impact of corruption scandals on political careers [10][11].

Core Points - The new Japanese Prime Minister, Kishi Sanae, emphasizes strong economic measures to protect national interests, indicating a shift towards more conservative policies [1][2] - The ruling coalition formed by the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) and the Japan Innovation Party (JIP) is expected to further align with right-wing policies, including military expansion and security legislation [2][3] - The coalition faces challenges due to a lack of majority in the Diet, which may hinder the implementation of their policies [4][6] Group 1: Government Formation and Policies - Kishi Sanae appointed conservative figures to key cabinet positions, aiming to balance party factions and strengthen her governance base [3] - The coalition's agreement includes plans to revise national security strategies and expand military capabilities, reflecting a rightward policy shift [2][3] - A new minister will oversee foreigner policies, indicating a focus on immigration and economic security [3] Group 2: Political Challenges and Public Concerns - The coalition's lack of a majority in both houses of the Diet raises uncertainties about policy implementation, as evidenced by Kishi's need to enter a second round of voting for her election [6][7] - Internal divisions exist within the coalition, particularly regarding campaign finance and electoral reforms, which could threaten its stability [7] - Public opinion is heavily focused on rising prices and political transparency, with experts warning that failure to address these issues could lead to a loss of public trust [8][10]

Group 1 - The core point of the news is that the Komeito party, led by Saito Tetsuo, has decided to leave the ruling coalition in Japan, indicating a significant political shift [1][3] - Komeito's members of parliament will not support the nomination of the new Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) president, Takashi Saito, in the prime ministerial election, opting instead to vote for their own leader [1][3] - The split is attributed to serious disagreements over the "political money" issue, with Komeito demanding stronger regulations on corporate and group donations, which the LDP has not adequately addressed [3] Group 2 - Analysts suggest that Komeito's departure from the ruling coalition marks a turning point in Japanese politics, leading to intensified political battles surrounding the prime ministerial election [3] - The uncertainty surrounding Takashi Saito's potential appointment as prime minister has increased due to Komeito's withdrawal from the coalition, making the outcome of the prime ministerial election unclear [3]

Core Viewpoint - The recent Japanese Senate election resulted in a significant loss for the ruling coalition of the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) and Komeito, leading to a "twisted parliament" situation where the coalition lacks majority control in both houses, raising uncertainties for Japan's economic outlook [1][4]. Group 1: Election Results and Political Implications - The LDP and Komeito coalition failed to secure a majority, winning only 47 out of 125 contested seats, which is below the required 50 seats [1]. - The loss is attributed to three main factors: failure to address economic issues, ongoing "political money" scandals, and rising social tensions leading voters to support emerging parties [2][4]. - The current political landscape indicates a potential shift, with the LDP facing internal pressure to replace Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba, who has not stabilized the coalition's power [3]. Group 2: Economic Outlook and Policy Challenges - The coalition's loss of majority control complicates the passage of budget and policy measures, as they must now negotiate with opposition parties, which are currently unwilling to collaborate [4]. - The recent U.S.-Japan trade negotiations resulted in a reduction of tariffs from 25% to 15%, with Japan committing to invest $550 billion in the U.S. However, this outcome may alienate agricultural voters and provoke opposition from rival parties [5]. - The rise of nationalist sentiments and anti-foreign rhetoric in the election reflects a societal shift that could hinder Japan's economic growth, particularly in light of its reliance on foreign labor and tourism [6].