Group 1 - Federal spending cuts have not yet caused severe shocks to the labor market, but early indicators suggest potential impacts are beginning to emerge [1][5] - The "Department of Government Efficiency" (DOGE) has announced layoffs exceeding 280,000 this year, while official government employment data shows a reduction of only about 26,000 federal employees since January [1] - Job postings in research and consulting have decreased by 18% since January 20, the day Trump took office, indicating a potential softening in overall hiring, particularly in Washington D.C. and surrounding areas [1][2] Group 2 - As of May 16, research job postings are 27% lower than pre-pandemic averages, while overall job numbers remain 7% higher than pre-pandemic levels [2] - Approximately 87% of the decline in research job postings occurred outside the D.C. metropolitan area, with D.C. experiencing a 17% overall drop in job ads since January 20 [3] - The reduction in federal positions, although small in percentage terms, could have broader economic implications due to the significant role these positions play in driving innovation [2][4] Group 3 - The decline in job postings is more indicative of a slowdown in hiring rather than mass layoffs, with potential future layoffs expected as transitional arrangements end [4] - The Federal Reserve plans to reduce its workforce by 10% over the next few years, indicating a broader trend of workforce reduction in federal agencies [4] - The cuts from DOGE may also affect government contracts, leading to hiring slowdowns or layoffs in companies reliant on federal funding, which could pressure state and local budgets [4]