Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that while U.S. job growth remains significant, it is experiencing a continuous slowdown, with economists predicting an addition of 110,000 non-farm jobs in June [1] - The average monthly job addition in the U.S. for this year is 124,000, down from 168,000 last year, reflecting the impact of fluctuating tariff policies, government layoffs, and tightened immigration policies [1] - The underlying issues include a slowdown in population growth and an aging workforce, making it difficult for the U.S. to replicate past employment growth trends [1] Group 2 - Despite economic concerns, layoffs remain relatively low, with employers still inclined to retain employees and wage growth remaining moderate [1] - Economic uncertainty has led to a slowdown in hiring, resulting in a stagnant job market where job seekers, including recent graduates and those re-entering the workforce, face significant challenges [1] - Even with new job additions, employee turnover is minimal, indicating that increased hiring could revitalize job growth, while slight increases in layoffs could further stagnate the labor market [1] Group 3 - Official data revisions suggest that actual job growth may be significantly lower than reported, with the Labor Department revising average job growth down by 55,000 from January to April [2] - The revisions indicate that many employers fail to respond promptly to surveys, particularly smaller businesses that struggle with high tariffs and reduced labor supply [2] - The June report will also update employment data for April and May, potentially painting a more somber employment picture [2] Group 4 - Discrepancies between institutional surveys and household data indicate that small businesses are a major drag on job growth, with actual job additions from March to December last year being less than half of initial reports [3] - The Labor Department's structural blind spots in its enterprise surveys may lead to biases, as new companies are not included in the sample, and it takes time to determine if companies have closed or stopped responding [6] - The ADP report shows a decrease of 33,000 jobs in the private sector in June, with small businesses (fewer than 50 employees) laying off 47,000 workers [6] Group 5 - The U.S. labor force is facing a new normal due to stagnant growth in the working-age population and a significant reduction in new immigrants joining the workforce [7] - Reports suggest that net immigration to the U.S. may drop to zero or negative this year, with more people leaving than entering [7] - Consequently, the economy may only need to add between 10,000 to 40,000 jobs monthly to maintain the current unemployment rate of 4.2%, indicating a slowdown in economic growth [7]

更多资料加入知识星球：水木调研纪要 关注公众号：水木Alpha J P M O R G A N North America Economic Research 04 June 2025 US: ADP was another downbeat jobs signal The ADP employment report showed only a 37k increase in private sector payrolls in May, continuing a trend of softer numbers, with this report now showing gains of less than 100k in three of the last four months. In contrast, the BLS report did not show a similar slowdown through April, with its 3-month average (148k) actually stronger than the 12-month average (130k). In add ...

【资讯导读】 ·特朗普税改与支出法案或使美国预算赤字增加逾2.4万亿美元 ·美联储褐皮书揭示美国经济活动放缓 ·加拿大央行维持利率不变暗示未来可能降息 ·美国私营部门就业增长显著放缓非制造业PMI跌至萎缩区间 ·欧洲央行正式批准保加利亚最早于2026年1月1日使用欧元的申请，使其成为欧元区第21个成员国。 ·加拿大央行连续第二次决定保持利率在2.75%不变，符合市场预期。然而，央行也指出，若经济疲软状 况持续、通胀水平保持温和，则不排除未来采取降息措施的可能性。 ·美国私营部门5月份的就业增长速度大幅减缓，仅新增3.7万个就业岗位，这是自2023年3月以来的最低 水平。劳动力市场的这种疲软迹象表明，经济复苏可能正在失去动力。 ·美国非制造业采购经理人指数PMI降至49.9，是自2024年6月以来首次跌破50点大关，标志着服务业活 动进入萎缩状态。随着需求突然下降以及价格压力上升，新一轮关税的影响正在全美经济范围内扩散。 【市场资讯】 ·美联储褐皮书显示，自上一份报告以来，美国经济活动在最近几周内略有下滑。这主要归因于关税措 施及高度不确定性对经济造成的连锁反应。报告显示，受访者普遍预期未来成本和价格将加速上 ...

Group 1 - The U.S. government's tariff policies have led to significant financial losses for global companies, exceeding $34 billion [1] - A report by Reuters analyzed 56 major companies, estimating losses from tariff policies, including 32 from the S&P 500, 3 from the European Stoxx 600, and 21 from the Nikkei 225 [1] - Companies like Apple, Ford, Porsche, and Sony have either withdrawn or significantly lowered their revenue forecasts due to unpredictable U.S. trade policies [1] Group 2 - The International Labour Organization (ILO) projects a slowdown in employment growth due to geopolitical tensions and international trade disruptions, estimating an addition of 53 million jobs by 2025, down from a previous estimate of 60 million [2] - The U.S. Department of Labor reported an increase in initial jobless claims, rising by 14,000 to 240,000, which is higher than expected [3] - The U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis indicated a decline in corporate profits by $118.1 billion in the first quarter, marking the largest drop since Q4 2020 [3]

这份报告指出，地缘政治紧张局势和贸易中断是经济前景疲软的关键因素，导致就业增长放缓。报告的 最新就业估算，是基于国际货币基金组织的世界经济增长预测得出。 国际劳工组织预测，全球71个国家近8400万个就业岗位直接或间接与美国的消费需求相关。由于贸易紧 张局势加剧，这些就业岗位及由其支撑的收入正面临越来越大的中断风险。 中新社北京5月28日电(记者刘亮)国际劳工组织在28日发布的一份报告中修订了今年全球就业预测。预 测称，今年全球预计将新增5300万个就业岗位，而非此前估计的6000万个。这意味着今年全球就业增长 率将从1.7%降至1.5%。 （文章来源：中国新闻网） 报告还强调了收入分配的严峻趋势。在全球范围内，劳动收入占比(国内生产总值中流向劳动者的部分) 从2014年的53.0%降至2024年的52.4%，非洲和美洲降幅最大。若这一比例(53.0%)保持不变，2024年全 球劳动收入将增加1万亿美元，或按不变购买力计算，每个劳动者的劳动收入将增加290美元。可见，劳 动收入占比的下降加剧了不平等，凸显出经济增长与劳动者报酬之间的脱节。 报告称，尽管全球受教育程度不断提高，但劳动力市场仍存在显著的教育错配问 ...

Group 1 - Federal spending cuts have not yet caused severe shocks to the labor market, but early indicators suggest potential impacts are beginning to emerge [1][5] - The "Department of Government Efficiency" (DOGE) has announced layoffs exceeding 280,000 this year, while official government employment data shows a reduction of only about 26,000 federal employees since January [1] - Job postings in research and consulting have decreased by 18% since January 20, the day Trump took office, indicating a potential softening in overall hiring, particularly in Washington D.C. and surrounding areas [1][2] Group 2 - As of May 16, research job postings are 27% lower than pre-pandemic averages, while overall job numbers remain 7% higher than pre-pandemic levels [2] - Approximately 87% of the decline in research job postings occurred outside the D.C. metropolitan area, with D.C. experiencing a 17% overall drop in job ads since January 20 [3] - The reduction in federal positions, although small in percentage terms, could have broader economic implications due to the significant role these positions play in driving innovation [2][4] Group 3 - The decline in job postings is more indicative of a slowdown in hiring rather than mass layoffs, with potential future layoffs expected as transitional arrangements end [4] - The Federal Reserve plans to reduce its workforce by 10% over the next few years, indicating a broader trend of workforce reduction in federal agencies [4] - The cuts from DOGE may also affect government contracts, leading to hiring slowdowns or layoffs in companies reliant on federal funding, which could pressure state and local budgets [4]