展望未来，美联储官员们在9月政策会议上表现出今年进一步降息的意愿，但同时也因通胀风险而保持谨慎。根据会议纪要： 大多数官员认为，在今年剩余时间内进一步放松政策可能是合适的。 纪要同时显示，多数与会者强调了通胀前景上行的风险。 会议纪要还显示，少数官员对降息持保留态度。部分官员认为上月无需降息，或本可支持维持利率不变。有几位成员表示，维持联邦基金利率不变或支持不降 息的决定都有其合理性。 上述情况与9月会后发布的点阵图新预测一致。点阵图显示，根据中位数估算，官员们预计到年底还将再降息两次，每次0.25个百分点。但会议纪要也反映出 委员会内部存在分歧：19位与会者中有数人预计2025年只会降息一次或不再降息。 有"新美联储通讯社"之称的知名财经记者Nick Timiraos撰文称，根据周三的会议记录显示， 美国联邦储备官员在上月批准今年首次降息时，对未来是否应进一 步降息存在明显分歧： 在参加会议的19位官员中， 略多于一半的人预计今年还将至少再降息两次， 这意味着10月与12月的会议可能会连续降息。 但另有7名官员认为今年不会再有 进一步降息， 凸显出美联储主席鲍威尔在内部达成共识面临的挑战。 当地时间周三，美 ...

今日2：00，美联储公布货币政策会议纪要，其中提到：今年上半年经济活动的增长有所放缓。就业增长放缓，失业率小幅上升，但仍保持在低位。通货 膨胀已经上升，并且仍在一定程度上处于高位。 ▲ATFX图 ▲ATFX图 会议纪要对市场人士最为关心的两大核心问题——就业和通胀——做出了回应。就业问题方面，美联储的观点与市场主流预期一致，都认为失业率在上 升，就业人数正在下降。会议纪要将这种变化归结为退休工人数量增加和净移民数量的减少。 通胀方面，美联储认为形式依旧严峻，通胀仍处于高位。原因是特朗普的关税政策增加了制造业的成本，这部分价格压力终将传导至终端市场。市场的主 流观点与此不同，认为通胀可能因为美国的经济衰退而持续下降，甚至有可能跌破美联储设定的2%目标。原因在于，美国总统的对内和对外政策过于激 进，引发大规模反制措施，大幅削弱了美国的经济潜力。 消息面来看，美国政府自10月1日停摆，时至今日参议院仍未通过拨款法案，停摆问题预计短期内不会结束。根据官方推测，每停摆一日，美国将损失150 亿美元经济价值。政府停摆问题将持续冲击美国宏观经济，就业和通胀问题恐将愈发严重。 技术走势看，日线级别，美元指数处于中长期空头趋势 ...

Economic Data Summary - The latest ADP report indicates an addition of +54K new private-sector jobs in August, missing expectations by 20K [1] - The four-month average for private-sector job growth is +55K, a significant decline from the previous average of +102K [2] - Large corporations added only +18K jobs, while medium-sized companies contributed +25K and small firms added +12K [3] Industry Performance - The Leisure/Hospitality sector saw the highest job growth with +50K new jobs, followed by Construction at +16K and Professional/Business Services at +15K [4] - The Trade/Transportation/Utilities sector experienced the largest decline with -17K jobs, along with Education/Healthcare losing -12K jobs [4][5] Labor Market Insights - Job Stayers experienced an average earnings gain of +4.4%, while Job Changers saw a +7.1% increase, indicating a stagnant labor market [6] - Initial Jobless Claims rose to +237K, the highest since June, while Continuing Jobless Claims decreased to 1.940 million [6][7] Productivity and Labor Costs - Q2 Productivity increased to a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of +3.3%, the strongest since Q3 2024, while Unit Labor Costs rose by only +1.0% [7] Trade Deficit - The U.S. Trade Deficit widened to -$78.3 billion in July, a significant increase from the previous month's -$59.1 billion [8]

Economic Growth Forecast - Malta's central bank predicts real GDP growth will slow from 5.9% in 2024 to 3.9% in 2025, with further decline to 3.3% by 2027 [1] - The bank's report indicates a slight downward adjustment for 2025's GDP growth compared to previous forecasts, while projections for the following two years remain largely unchanged [1] Key Growth Drivers - Private consumption is expected to remain the main driver of GDP growth throughout the forecast period (2025-2027), despite a decline from recent peaks [1] - Investment is anticipated to continue recovering in the first two years of the forecast period [1] - Net exports are projected to contribute positively to GDP growth, primarily due to service trade, although this contribution will be significantly less than domestic demand [1] Employment and Unemployment Trends - Employment growth is expected to gradually slow, decreasing from 5.3% in 2024 to 3.0% in 2025, and further to 2.4% and 2.3% in 2026 and 2027, respectively [1] - The unemployment rate is projected to decline to 2.7% by the end of the forecast period [1] Wage Growth and Inflation - The labor market is expected to remain tight, which will be a key factor driving wage increases [2] - Wage growth is forecasted to slow from 6.3% last year to 4.4% in 2025, with further declines to 3.7% and 3.5% in 2026 and 2027, respectively [2] - The average annual inflation rate is expected to reach 2.3% in 2025, down from 2.4% last year, primarily reflecting a decrease in food and service inflation [2] - Inflation rates for 2026 and 2027 are projected to further decline to 2.1% and 2.0%, respectively, driven mainly by a decrease in service inflation [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that while U.S. job growth remains significant, it is experiencing a continuous slowdown, with economists predicting an addition of 110,000 non-farm jobs in June [1] - The average monthly job addition in the U.S. for this year is 124,000, down from 168,000 last year, reflecting the impact of fluctuating tariff policies, government layoffs, and tightened immigration policies [1] - The underlying issues include a slowdown in population growth and an aging workforce, making it difficult for the U.S. to replicate past employment growth trends [1] Group 2 - Despite economic concerns, layoffs remain relatively low, with employers still inclined to retain employees and wage growth remaining moderate [1] - Economic uncertainty has led to a slowdown in hiring, resulting in a stagnant job market where job seekers, including recent graduates and those re-entering the workforce, face significant challenges [1] - Even with new job additions, employee turnover is minimal, indicating that increased hiring could revitalize job growth, while slight increases in layoffs could further stagnate the labor market [1] Group 3 - Official data revisions suggest that actual job growth may be significantly lower than reported, with the Labor Department revising average job growth down by 55,000 from January to April [2] - The revisions indicate that many employers fail to respond promptly to surveys, particularly smaller businesses that struggle with high tariffs and reduced labor supply [2] - The June report will also update employment data for April and May, potentially painting a more somber employment picture [2] Group 4 - Discrepancies between institutional surveys and household data indicate that small businesses are a major drag on job growth, with actual job additions from March to December last year being less than half of initial reports [3] - The Labor Department's structural blind spots in its enterprise surveys may lead to biases, as new companies are not included in the sample, and it takes time to determine if companies have closed or stopped responding [6] - The ADP report shows a decrease of 33,000 jobs in the private sector in June, with small businesses (fewer than 50 employees) laying off 47,000 workers [6] Group 5 - The U.S. labor force is facing a new normal due to stagnant growth in the working-age population and a significant reduction in new immigrants joining the workforce [7] - Reports suggest that net immigration to the U.S. may drop to zero or negative this year, with more people leaving than entering [7] - Consequently, the economy may only need to add between 10,000 to 40,000 jobs monthly to maintain the current unemployment rate of 4.2%, indicating a slowdown in economic growth [7]

Summary of the Conference Call Notes Industry or Company Involved - The conference call primarily discusses the employment data from the ADP (Automatic Data Processing) and BLS (Bureau of Labor Statistics) reports in the context of the U.S. job market. Core Points and Arguments 1. **ADP Employment Report**: The ADP report indicated a modest increase of only 37,000 in private sector payrolls for May, continuing a trend of weaker job growth, with gains below 100,000 in three of the last four months [1][2][3] 2. **BLS vs. ADP Discrepancy**: The BLS report showed a stronger three-month average of 148,000 compared to the ADP's lower figures, suggesting a significant discrepancy between the two reports [1][2] 3. **Historical Context**: The average absolute miss between the first prints of ADP and BLS over the last 12 months has been 73,000, indicating that a 70,000 miss over three months would be substantial and could imply downward revisions to earlier months [2] 4. **Jobless Claims and Job Availability**: Continuing jobless claims are rising, and job availability is nearing cycle lows, which may signal a slowdown in job gains, particularly influenced by immigration trends [2][3] 5. **Sector Performance**: The slowdown in employment gains was noted across various sectors, including goods-producing industries and professional services, with both small and large businesses experiencing declines [3] Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content 1. **Immigration Impact**: The report suggests that the decline in border encounters since late January may be contributing to a slowdown in job gains, although this effect has not yet been fully reflected in the BLS data [2] 2. **Employment Growth Estimates**: The report includes a table of month-over-month private nonfarm employment growth estimates, showing variations between ADP and BLS figures for several months, highlighting the ongoing volatility in employment data [7] 3. **Industry Breakdown**: The ADP report provides a detailed breakdown of employment changes by industry and business size, indicating specific sectors that are underperforming [8] This summary encapsulates the key insights from the conference call regarding the current state of the U.S. job market as reflected in the ADP and BLS reports, highlighting discrepancies, sector performance, and broader economic implications.

Economic Overview - The U.S. economy is experiencing a slight slowdown, attributed to tariffs and high uncertainty, as indicated by the Federal Reserve's Beige Book [1] - The U.S. private sector added only 37,000 jobs in May, marking the lowest growth since March 2023, suggesting a potential loss of economic momentum [2] - The non-manufacturing PMI in the U.S. fell to 49.9, indicating a contraction in service sector activity for the first time since June 2024 [2] Fiscal Policy and Budget - The Congressional Budget Office estimates that the Trump tax reform and spending bill could increase the U.S. budget deficit by over $2.42 trillion over the next decade, reducing revenues by $3.67 trillion while cutting spending by $1.25 trillion [1] Monetary Policy - The Bank of Canada maintained its interest rate at 2.75% for the second consecutive time, indicating potential future rate cuts if economic weakness persists [2] - The European Central Bank approved Bulgaria's application to adopt the euro by January 1, 2026, making it the 21st member of the Eurozone [1] Market Dynamics - The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell by 0.22%, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite saw slight increases of 0.01% and 0.32%, respectively [4] - Gold futures rose by 0.60% to $3,397.40 per ounce, while oil prices for both WTI and Brent crude fell by approximately 1% [4] Bond Market - U.S. Treasury yields declined across various maturities, with the 2-year yield down by 8.25 basis points to 3.862% and the 30-year yield down by 10.76 basis points to 4.877% [5] Currency Market - The U.S. dollar index decreased by 0.47%, while the euro and British pound appreciated against the dollar [5]

Group 1 - The U.S. government's tariff policies have led to significant financial losses for global companies, exceeding $34 billion [1] - A report by Reuters analyzed 56 major companies, estimating losses from tariff policies, including 32 from the S&P 500, 3 from the European Stoxx 600, and 21 from the Nikkei 225 [1] - Companies like Apple, Ford, Porsche, and Sony have either withdrawn or significantly lowered their revenue forecasts due to unpredictable U.S. trade policies [1] Group 2 - The International Labour Organization (ILO) projects a slowdown in employment growth due to geopolitical tensions and international trade disruptions, estimating an addition of 53 million jobs by 2025, down from a previous estimate of 60 million [2] - The U.S. Department of Labor reported an increase in initial jobless claims, rising by 14,000 to 240,000, which is higher than expected [3] - The U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis indicated a decline in corporate profits by $118.1 billion in the first quarter, marking the largest drop since Q4 2020 [3]

Core Insights - The International Labour Organization (ILO) revised its global employment forecast for 2023, predicting an addition of 53 million jobs instead of the previously estimated 60 million, resulting in a decrease in the global employment growth rate from 1.7% to 1.5% [1] - Geopolitical tensions and trade disruptions are identified as key factors contributing to the weak economic outlook and slowing employment growth [1] - The report highlights that nearly 84 million jobs in 71 countries are directly or indirectly linked to U.S. consumer demand, which faces increasing disruption risks due to escalating trade tensions [1] - A concerning trend in income distribution is noted, with the labor income share of GDP declining from 53.0% in 2014 to an expected 52.4% in 2024, particularly in Africa and the Americas [1] - If the labor income share remained at 53.0%, global labor income could increase by $1 trillion by 2024, equating to an additional $290 per worker in real purchasing power [1] Employment and Education Mismatch - Despite rising education levels globally, significant educational mismatches persist in the labor market, with only 47.7% of workers possessing qualifications that match job requirements as of 2022 [2] - The proportion of under-educated workers decreased from 37.9% to 33.4% over the past decade, while the share of over-educated workers increased from 15.5% to 18.9% [2]

Group 1 - Federal spending cuts have not yet caused severe shocks to the labor market, but early indicators suggest potential impacts are beginning to emerge [1][5] - The "Department of Government Efficiency" (DOGE) has announced layoffs exceeding 280,000 this year, while official government employment data shows a reduction of only about 26,000 federal employees since January [1] - Job postings in research and consulting have decreased by 18% since January 20, the day Trump took office, indicating a potential softening in overall hiring, particularly in Washington D.C. and surrounding areas [1][2] Group 2 - As of May 16, research job postings are 27% lower than pre-pandemic averages, while overall job numbers remain 7% higher than pre-pandemic levels [2] - Approximately 87% of the decline in research job postings occurred outside the D.C. metropolitan area, with D.C. experiencing a 17% overall drop in job ads since January 20 [3] - The reduction in federal positions, although small in percentage terms, could have broader economic implications due to the significant role these positions play in driving innovation [2][4] Group 3 - The decline in job postings is more indicative of a slowdown in hiring rather than mass layoffs, with potential future layoffs expected as transitional arrangements end [4] - The Federal Reserve plans to reduce its workforce by 10% over the next few years, indicating a broader trend of workforce reduction in federal agencies [4] - The cuts from DOGE may also affect government contracts, leading to hiring slowdowns or layoffs in companies reliant on federal funding, which could pressure state and local budgets [4]