Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The core logic of the recent cotton market is "policy expectation-driven", where the expectation of a reduction in the cotton planting area in Xinjiang in 2026 supports the upward movement of cotton prices. Despite the current fundamentals showing sufficient supply and weak spot trading, the market has already anticipated the future supply contraction. It is expected that in the short term (January), cotton prices will fluctuate and strengthen within the range of 14,200 - 15,000 yuan/ton. If the policy details are further clarified or the demand improves substantially, the price is likely to break through the upper limit of the range [4] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Domestic Cotton Futures - CF05 on January 26 was 14,650, down 45 or -0.31% from January 23 [3] - CF09 on January 26 was 14,805, down 55 or -0.37% from January 23 [3] - CF05 - 09 on January 26 was -155, up 10 from January 23 [3] Domestic Cotton Spot - In Xinjiang, the price on January 26 was 15,717, up 122 or 0.78% from January 23 [3] - In Henan, the price on January 26 was 16,038, up 120 or 0.75% from January 23 [3] - In Shandong, the price on January 26 was 16,049, up 106 or 0.66% from January 23 [3] - The Xinjiang - main contract basis on January 26 was 1,067, up 167 from January 23 [3] Domestic Cotton Yarn Futures - CY on January 26 was 20,515, up 10 or 0.05% from January 23 [3] Domestic Cotton Yarn Spot - The C32S price index on January 26 was 21,365, unchanged from January 23 [3] US Cotton Spot - CT (USD/pound) on January 26 was 64, unchanged from January 23 [3] - The arrival price on January 26 was 73.70, unchanged from January 23 [3] - The 1% quota pick - up price on January 26 was 12,824, unchanged from January 23 [3] - The sliding - scale duty pick - up price on January 26 was 13,861, unchanged from January 23 [3] Spread Data - The yarn - cotton spread (futures) on January 26 was 5,350, up 160 from January 23 [3] - The yarn - cotton spread (spot) on January 26 was 1,037, unchanged from January 23 [3] Other Data - The domestic - foreign spot spread on January 26 was 3,225, up 106 from January 23 [4]