研究所 农产品研发报告 农产品日报 2026 年 01 月 12 日 研究员：王玺圳、刘倩楠 期货从业证号： F03118729、F3013727 投资咨询证号： Z0022817、Z0014425 联系方式： :wangxizhen_qh@chin astock.com.cn 棉花、棉纱日报 第一部分 市场信息 | 期货盘面 | 收盘 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量(手) | 增减幅 | 空盘量 | 增减量 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | CF01合约 | 14710 | -20 | 2,997 | -1141 | 52,143 | -1655 | | CF05合约 | 14625 | -50 | 615,373 | 106794 | 817,953 | -31033 | | CF09合约 | 14795 | -65 | 85,995 | 26551 | 110,123 | 1196 | | CY01合约 | 20225 | 0 | 0 | -4 | 372 | 0 | | CY05合约 | 20650 | -110 | 587 | -53 | 241 ...

Morning session notice 早盘提示 Morning session notice 早盘提示 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2026 年 01 月 12 日星期一 重要事项: 本报告中的信息均源于公开资料，格林大华期货研究院对信息的准确性及完备性不作任何保 证，也不保证所包含的信息和建议不会发生任何变更。我们力求报告内容的客观、公正，但 文中的观点、结论和建议仅供参考，报告中的信息和意见并不构成所述期货合约的买卖出价 和征价，投资者据此作出的任何投资决策与本公司和作者无关，格林大华期货有限公司不承 担因根据本报告操作而导致的损失，敬请投资者注意可能存在的交易风险。本报告版权仅为 任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版 研究员： 王子健 从业资格：F03087965 交易咨询资格：Z0019551 联系方式：17803978037 | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 【行情复盘】 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | ICE3 月合约结算价 64.41 ...

近日，记者了解到，位于新疆西北边陲的博尔塔拉蒙古自治州(简称"博州")作为2025年"可持续棉花"商 标的唯一试点地区，在推动商标应用方面成效显著，38家棉花加工企业获批使用该商标，充分展示了 博州棉花产业在标准化、可持续化方面的领先优势。 截至目前，新疆已有220家棉花加工企业参与，累计颁发《优质"可持续棉花"商标使用证书》1.4万张， 对应皮棉总量57.8万吨，博州地区获得证书的15.3万多吨棉花，凭借优秀的品质，实现自身价值提升， 赢得了消费者的广泛认可，在这成功的背后，依托的是棉花公证检验数据提供的坚实支撑。 "公证检验让棉花质量看得见、可量化、交易公平，这是我们获得商标授权的关键。"博州恒昌棉业有 限责任公司党支部书记霍江青深有感触地说，有了公证检验的数据背书和"可持续棉花"商标加持，企 业棉花在收购市场上更具竞争力，真正实现了"优质优价"。在纺织销售端，使用"可持续棉花"的制品 较其他产品销量提升超过30%，满足消费者对优质产品的需求。成为公证检验赋能中国可持续棉花推 广发展的生动诠释。 从实验室的仪器检测，到商标认证的技术背书，再到市场交易的价值实现，棉花公证检验为可持续棉 花的推广发展提供了坚 ...

市场人士对此反响积极。河南同舟棉业交易管理部总经理符如建表示，棉花期货上市20余年来，在帮助 棉花产业链企业规避价格风险、锁定经营利润等方面效果显著。此次棉花合约规则修订紧跟现货市场相 关制度变化，使棉花期货更贴近现货市场实际，有助于产业企业更好地利用期货工具稳定经营。 （文章来源：期货日报网） 根据公告，本次修订主要围绕两个方面展开：一是更新引用的国家标准编号，将基准交割品引用的标准 由《中华人民共和国国家标准棉花第1部分：锯齿加工细绒棉》（GB 1103.1-2012）更新为《中华人民 共和国国家标准棉花第1部分：锯齿加工细绒棉》（GB 1103.1-2023），确保期货交割标准与现货市场 流通使用的国家标准保持一致。二是更新棉花公证检验制度的相关文件名称，将原引用的《期货交割棉 公证检验实施办法（暂行）》更新为《棉花质量公证检验实施暂行办法》和《期货交割棉质量公证检验 工作规程》，与现行有效的棉花公证检验管理体系衔接。 据期货日报记者了解，在棉花国家标准及相关公证检验管理文件更新后，郑商所第一时间开展了深入调 研和论证工作，并在广泛征求棉花产业链上下游企业意见的基础上，完成了本次《细则》修订。本次修 订 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - The market sentiment cooled slightly yesterday, with the commodity market weakening significantly and the stock index showing a volatile trend. The trading volume also contracted. After a rapid rise, the stock index has entered a stage of shock consolidation. There are no obvious macro-level negatives at present, and the short-term outlook for the stock index remains bullish. The bond futures are favored by the asset shortage and weak economy, but the central bank has recently warned of interest rate risks. Attention should be paid to the Bank of Japan's interest rate decision. [1] - The prices of various commodities are affected by different factors, such as supply and demand, policy changes, and macro sentiment. The report provides trend judgments and trading suggestions for each commodity, including metals, energy, chemicals, and agricultural products. [1] Summary by Related Catalogs Macro Finance - Stock Index: After a rapid rise, the stock index has entered a stage of shock consolidation. There are no obvious macro-level negatives at present, and the short-term outlook for the stock index remains bullish. Attention should be paid to capital flows and market sentiment changes. [1] - Treasury Bonds: The bond futures are favored by the asset shortage and weak economy, but the central bank has recently warned of interest rate risks. Attention should be paid to the Bank of Japan's interest rate decision. [1] Non-Ferrous Metals - Copper: The copper price has fallen from its recent high, but there are still disruptions in the mining end. The downside space for the copper price is expected to be limited. [1] - Aluminum: There has been an accumulation of domestic electrolytic aluminum stocks recently, and the industrial driving force is limited. The macro anti-involution sentiment has ebbed, and the aluminum price has fallen from its high. [1] - Alumina: The supply side of alumina still has a large release space, and the industrial side exerts downward pressure on the price. However, the current price is basically near the cost line, and the price is expected to fluctuate. [1] - Zinc: The fundamentals of zinc have improved, and the cost center has shifted upward. The recent macro sentiment has been good, and the zinc price has risen. However, considering the still existing pressure on the fundamentals, caution is advised regarding the upside space. [1] - Nickel: The market's concerns about nickel supply have significantly cooled, and the LME nickel inventory has increased significantly recently. The nickel price has corrected from its high. Since Indonesia has not disclosed the specific amount and said that it is still in the process of accounting, there is still uncertainty about the implementation of the subsequent policy. The short-term volatility risk of the nickel price has increased. Attention should be paid to the implementation of Indonesia's policy, changes in macro sentiment, and changes in futures positions, and risk control should be done well. [1] Precious Metals and New Energy - Gold and Silver: The annual weight adjustment of the BCOM index has officially started, and the exchange has introduced multiple risk control measures for silver to suppress speculative enthusiasm. The prices of precious metals have fallen across the board, with a significant decline in silver. In the short term, gold and silver are expected to continue to be weak and volatile. In the medium and long term, attention can be paid to the opportunity to buy on dips after this round of risk release. [1] - Platinum and Palladium: Platinum and palladium have followed the weakening of precious metals. In the short term, they are expected to be in a wide-range volatile pattern. In the medium and long term, with the still existing supply-demand gap for platinum and the tendency of palladium to have a loose supply, platinum can still be bought on dips or a [long platinum, short palladium] arbitrage strategy can be adopted. [1] Industrial Products - Industrial Silicon: There is an increase in production in the northwest and a decrease in production in the southwest. The production schedules for polysilicon and organic silicon in December have decreased. [1] - Polysilicon: It is the traditional peak season for new energy vehicles. The demand for energy storage is strong. The supply side has increased production resumption. There is a short-term rapid increase. [1] - Rebar and Hot Rolled Coil: In the short term, sentiment and capital have a greater influence than industrial contradictions. One can try to follow long positions with a stop-loss; for futures-spot trading, participate in positive spread positions. [1] - Iron Ore: There is sector rotation, but the upside pressure on iron ore is obvious. It is not recommended to chase long positions at this level. [1] - Non-Ferrous Metals: There is a combination of weak reality and strong expectations. The current supply and demand situation remains weak, but in terms of expectations, energy consumption double control and anti-involution may have an impact on supply. [1] - Soda Ash: Soda ash follows the trend of glass. In the medium term, the supply and demand situation will be more relaxed, and the price will be under pressure. [1] - Coking Coal and Coke: If the "capacity reduction" expectation continues to ferment and there is pre-holiday restocking of spot goods, coking coal may still have room to rise. However, since the current market's "capacity reduction" expectation mainly comes from online rumors, it is difficult to judge the actual upside space. After a significant increase, the volatility will intensify, and caution should be exercised. The logic for coke is the same as that for coking coal. [1] Agricultural Products - Palm Oil: The MPOB December data is expected to be bearish for palm oil, but palm oil will reverse under the themes of seasonal production reduction, the B50 policy, and US biodiesel in the future. Short-term rebounds due to macro sentiment should be watched out for. [1] - Soybean Oil: The fundamentals of soybean oil are relatively strong. It is recommended to allocate more in the oil sector and consider a long Y, short P spread. Wait for the January USDA report. [1] - Rapeseed Oil: The trade relationship between China and Canada may improve, and Australian rapeseed will be imported smoothly. After the rapeseed trade flow is opened up, the trading logic of rapeseed oil will gradually shift from the domestic tight supply situation to the global rapeseed production increase expectation. There is still room for the price to fall. Short-term rebounds due to macro sentiment should be watched out for. [1] - Cotton: There is a strong expectation of a good harvest for domestic new crops, and the purchase price of seed cotton supports the cost of lint cotton. The downstream operating rate remains low, but the inventory of yarn mills is not high, and there is a rigid demand for restocking. Considering the growth of spinning capacity, the demand for cotton in the new crop market year is relatively resilient. Currently, the cotton market is in a situation of "having support but no driving force." Future attention should be paid to the tone of the No. 1 Central Document in the first quarter of next year regarding the direct subsidy price and cotton planting area, the intention of cotton planting area next year, the weather during the planting period, and the demand during the "Golden Three and Silver Four" peak season. [1] - Sugar: Currently, there is a global surplus of sugar, and the supply of domestic new crops has increased. The short-selling consensus is relatively strong. If the futures price continues to fall, there will be strong cost support below. However, there is a lack of continuous driving force in the short-term fundamentals. Attention should be paid to changes in the capital side. [1] - Corn: The fundamentals of corn have not changed significantly. The spot price remains firm, and the progress of grain sales at the grassroots level is relatively fast. Most traders have not yet strategically built inventories, and feed enterprises maintain a safe inventory. There is a certain restocking demand before the holiday. The short-term outlook for CO3 is expected to be oscillating and slightly bullish. Attention should be paid to the dynamics of policy grain auctions. [1] - Soybean Meal: The domestic market may restart the auction of imported soybeans; the relationship between China and Canada is expected to ease, and China is expected to suspend the tax on Canadian rapeseed meal; the macro sentiment has cooled, and the domestic market has returned to the fundamentals and shown a significant decline. Recently, it has been greatly affected by policy news. The soybean meal futures price is expected to be mainly oscillating in the short term. Attention should be paid to the adjustment of the January USDA supply and demand report and the trend of the Brazilian premium. [1] - Pulp: Pulp has fallen today due to the decline in the commodity macro market. The overall price has not broken through the oscillating range. The short-term commodity sentiment fluctuates greatly, and it is recommended to observe cautiously. [1] - Logs: The spot price of logs has shown a certain sign of bottoming out and rebounding recently. The further downside space for the futures price is expected to be limited. However, the January overseas quotation has still slightly declined, and the log futures and spot markets lack upward driving factors. It is expected to oscillate in the range of 760 - 790 yuan/m³. [1] - Hogs: Recently, the spot price has gradually stabilized. Supported by demand and with the出栏体重 not yet fully cleared, the production capacity still needs to be further released. [1] Energy and Chemicals - Crude Oil: OPEC+ has suspended production increases until the end of 2026. There is uncertainty about the Russia-Ukraine peace agreement. The United States has imposed sanctions on Venezuela's crude oil exports. [1] - Fuel Oil: In the short term, the supply-demand contradiction is not prominent, and it follows the trend of crude oil. The probability of the 14th Five-Year Plan's rush demand being falsified is high, and the supply of Ma Rui crude oil is not short. The profit of asphalt is relatively high. [1] - BR Rubber: The futures position has declined, and the number of new warehouse receipts has increased. The increase in BR has slowed down temporarily. The spot price has led the rise to repair the basis, and BR continues to focus on the upward momentum above the 12,000 yuan line. The listed prices of BD/BR have been continuously raised, and the processing profit of butadiene rubber has narrowed. The overseas cracking device capacity has been cleared, which is beneficial to the long-term export expectation of domestic butadiene. The tax on naphtha also has a positive impact on the butadiene price. Fundamentally, butadiene rubber maintains high production and high inventory operation, and the trading center is generally average. Styrene-butadiene rubber is relatively better than butadiene rubber. [1] - PX and PTA: The PX market has experienced a rapid rise, but this round of rise is not due to a fundamental change. The fundamentals of PX do have support, and the market is expected to continue to tighten in 2026, driven by the new PTA production capacity in India and the organic growth of demand. Domestic PTA maintains high production. The gasoline spread is still at a high level, which supports aromatics. [1] - Ethylene Glycol: There is news that two sets of MEG plants in Taiwan, China, with a total annual capacity of 720,000 tons, plan to stop production next month due to efficiency reasons. Ethylene glycol has rebounded rapidly during the continuous decline, stimulated by supply-side news. The current operating rate of the polyester downstream remains above 90%, and the demand performance is slightly better than expected. [1] - Short Fiber: The PX market has experienced a rapid rise, but this round of rise is not due to a fundamental change. Domestic PTA maintains high production, and the domestic polyester load has declined. The short fiber price continues to closely follow the cost fluctuations. [1] - Styrene: The Asian styrene market is generally stable. Suppliers are reluctant to lower prices due to continuous losses, while buyers insist on pressing prices due to weak downstream polymer demand and compressed profits. Although the downstream demand is weak, the domestic market has a strong bullish sentiment due to export support. The market is in a weak balance state, and the short-term upward momentum needs to be driven by the overseas market. [1] - Urea: The export sentiment has slightly eased, and there is limited upside space due to insufficient domestic demand. There is support from anti-involution and the cost side below. [1] - PF: Geopolitical conflicts have intensified, and there is a risk of an increase in crude oil prices. There are fewer maintenance activities, the operating load is at a high level, and there are overseas arrivals, so the supply has increased. The downstream demand operating rate has weakened. In 2026, there will be more new production capacity, and the supply-demand surplus will further intensify, and the market expectation is weak. [1] - Propylene: There are fewer maintenance activities, the operating load is relatively high, and the supply pressure is relatively large. The improvement in the downstream is less than expected. The propylene monomer price is at a high level, the crude oil price has risen, and the cost support is strong. Geopolitical conflicts have intensified, and there is a risk of an increase in crude oil prices. [1] - PVC: In 2026, there will be less global new production capacity, and the future expectation is relatively optimistic. Currently, there are fewer maintenance activities, new production capacity is being released, and the supply pressure is increasing. The demand has weakened, and the orders are not good. The differential electricity price in the northwest region is expected to be implemented, which will force the clearance of PVC production capacity. [1] - LPG: The January CP has risen more than expected, and the cost support for imported gas is relatively strong. The geopolitical conflicts between the United States, Venezuela, and the Middle East have escalated, and the short-term risk premium has increased. The trend of inventory accumulation in the EIA weekly C3 inventory has slowed down, and it is expected to gradually turn to inventory reduction. The domestic port inventory has also decreased. Domestic PDH maintains high production and deep losses. There is a rigid demand for global civil combustion, and the demand for MTBE from overseas olefin blending for gasoline has declined temporarily. Since January 1, 2026, naphtha has been re-taxed, and the long-term demand expectation for light cracking raw materials such as LPG has increased, and the performance of downstream olefin products is relatively strong. [1] Shipping - Container Shipping - European Line: It is expected to peak in mid-January. Airlines are still relatively cautious in their trial reflights. The pre-holiday restocking demand still exists. [1]

北京时间1月9日，美国洲际交易所(ICE)棉花期货价格缓慢爬升，开盘报64.41美分/磅，现报64.50美分/ 磅，涨幅0.16%，盘中最高触及64.52美分/磅，最低下探64.41美分/磅。 更新时间： 棉花期货行情回顾： 1月8日美国洲际交易所(ICE)棉花期货行情 1月8日，全国3128皮棉到厂均价15883元/吨，跌280.00元/吨；全国32s纯棉纱环锭纺价格22089元/吨， 平；纺纱利润为-1382.3元/吨，涨308.00元/吨。 巴西出口：巴西12月出口了创纪录的452,500吨棉花，受亚洲国家高需求推动。 品种 开盘价 最高价 最低价 收盘价 美棉花 64.82 64.91 64.46 64.62 -0.60% 【棉花市场消息速递】 据美国商品期货交易委员会(CFTC)最新数据，截至1月2日，美棉ON-call未点价卖出订单46251手，环比 减少1927手；未点价买入订单88321手，环比减少706手；ICE期棉2603合约上卖方未点价合约为18662 手，较此前一周减少1977手。 ...

更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2026 年 01 月 08 日星期四 Morning session notice 早盘提示 Morning session notice 早盘提示 联系方式：17803978037 | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 【行情复盘】 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | ICE3 月合约结算价 65.06 涨 41 点，5 月 66.43 涨 44 点，7 月 67.74 涨 43 点；成 | | | | | 交约 8.6 万手。 | | | | | 郑棉总成交 795874 持仓 1246090。结算价 1 月 15100，5 月 14965，9 月 15155。 | | | | | 【重要资讯】 | | | | | 1、1 月 4 日南疆巴州区域纺企采购 31 级双 29 含杂 2.8%以内机采新棉疆内库 2605 | | | | | 合约基差成交价 950-1050 元/吨，提货价在 15500-15650 元/吨，较前一日 ...

来源：@华夏时报微博 华夏时报记者 叶青 北京报道 近期棉花期货价格呈现持续攀升态势，郑棉主力合约表现尤为突出。2025年12月以来，合约价格从13600元/吨左 右稳步上行，单月涨幅近千元，突破14000元/吨关键阻力位后加速拉涨。截至2026年1月7日，郑棉主力合约收盘 价达15035元/吨，创1年半新高。自2025年12月1日至2026年1月7日，郑棉主力合约涨幅达10%。 "近期棉花期货大幅上涨，其核心驱动有两方面，一方面，棉花消费好于预期，当前新棉处于集中上市期，加工、 公检进度快于往年，但棉花商业库存累库情况不及预期。据公开数据，截至2025年12月15日，全国棉花商业库存 同比下滑1.65万吨，棉花表观消费同比增加，利多棉价。另一方面，政策端预期同样利多棉价。"中信期货资深研 究员吴静雯接受《华夏时报》记者采访时表示。 多重利多加持 "自2025年10月下旬以来，国内棉花期货出现大幅上涨，其原因主要包括三方面：首先是宏观层面，目前中美关系 缓和，中美关税互降对我国纺织品服装出口也是一大利好，未来一年效果可能会逐渐凸显。其次是有消息称2026 年新疆棉花种植面积可能会减少，这对棉花价格形成一定利多 ...

消息方面，截至 12 月 31 日，2025/26 年榨季广西 73 家糖厂已全部开榨，同比减少 1 家；累计入榨甘 蔗 1623.03 万吨，同比减少 525.15 万吨；产混合糖 194.19 万吨，同比减少 80.95 万吨；混合产糖率 11.96%，同比降低 0.85 个百分点；累计销糖 88.48 万吨，同比减少 74.74 万吨；产销率 45.56%，同比 下降 13.76 个百分点。其中 12 月份广西单月产糖 180.8 万吨，同比减少 43.1 万吨；单月销糖 79.54 万 吨，同比减少 55.18 万吨；工业库存 105.71 万吨，同比减少 6.21 万吨。现货报价方面，广西制糖集团 报价区间为5300~5370元/吨，上调10~20元/吨；云南制糖集团报价5120~5220元/吨，个别上调10~20元/ 吨；加工糖厂主流报价区间为5700~5900元/吨，少数调整30~50元/吨，涨跌不一。原糖方面，市场对于 印度产量同比大幅提升反应平淡，市场仍维持震荡格局。国内方面，春节补库开始，成交有所好转，加 之近期大宗商品整体较为强势，期价向区间上沿攀升，未来关键在于本月压榨进度及进口情况， ...

联系方式： 研究所 农产品研发报告 农产品日报 2026 年 01 月 06 日 研究员：王玺圳、刘倩楠 期货从业证号： F03118729、F3013727 投资咨询证号： Z0022817、Z0014425 【棉花市场消息】 :wangxizhen_qh@chin astock.com.cn 棉花、棉纱日报 | 期货盘面 | 收盘 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量(手) | 增减幅 | 空盘量 | 增减量 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | CF01合约 | 14955 | 215 | 9,463 | -828 | 76,464 | -6181 | | CF05合约 | 14855 | 200 | 394,159 | -98579 | 915,854 | 25993 | | CF09合约 | 15040 | 195 | 32,651 | -12617 | 78,436 | 6406 | | CY01合约 | 20250 | -225 | 32 | 32 | 378 | 0 | | CY05合约 | 20880 | 230 | 61 | -22 | 171 ...