1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall market is affected by the geopolitical situation between the US and Iran. The conflict has led to significant fluctuations in commodity prices, and the market is in a state of high uncertainty. The end - conflict signals released by both sides have a certain impact on market sentiment, but the actual supply and demand fundamentals also play important roles in price trends [2][9][93]. - Different industries have different supply - demand situations. For example, in the metals industry, some metals are affected by supply disruptions in the Middle East, while others are influenced by changes in domestic production and demand. In the agricultural products industry, factors such as planting area, harvest progress, and downstream demand affect prices. In the energy - chemical industry, the conflict in the Middle East has a significant impact on the supply and cost of raw materials [24][70][93]. 3. Summary According to the Catalog 3.1 Daily Selections - **Tin**: With the US and Iran expressing the willingness to end the conflict, market risk appetite has recovered, and tin prices are expected to be strong in the short term. Supply has improved significantly, and demand is gradually recovering. It is recommended to buy long positions [2][35]. - **Soda Ash**: Cost support has weakened, and soda ash is oscillating downward. The short - term supply - demand pattern is supply - strong and demand - weak, but the downward space is expected to be limited, with the SA605 contract referring to the range of 1150 - 1250 [3][117]. - **Rebar**: Raw materials are strong, supporting the steel price center. The supply and demand are seasonally rising, and the steel price's upward drive mainly comes from the raw material side [4][53]. - **Live Pigs**: Spot support is limited, and capacity pressure suppresses the far - month contracts. The short - term price may be boosted by second - fattening sentiment, but there is a possibility of further decline [5][74]. 3.2 Macro - finance - **Stock Index Futures**: The Asia - Pacific market is down, and the Q2 style tends to focus on fundamental verification. It is recommended to wait and see [6][8]. - **Precious Metals**: The leaders of the US and Iran have expressed the will to end the war, the US dollar has fallen, and precious metals have rebounded significantly. In the short term, gold may have a technical repair, and silver may also have a band - trading opportunity. Platinum and palladium are in a state of shock and consolidation [9][12]. 3.3 Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: Iran's intention to end the war has led to a rebound in copper prices. The supply - demand fundamentals have improved slightly, and the medium - and long - term copper supply - demand contradiction logic has not changed significantly. It is recommended to wait and see, with the main contract focusing on the pressure at 97000 - 98000 [14][18]. - **Alumina**: Warehouse receipts are continuously accumulating, and the market is running weakly. The industry is in a state of over - capacity, and the price is expected to fluctuate around the cost line. It is recommended to maintain a short - selling strategy at high prices [19][21]. - **Aluminum**: The expectation of production cuts in the Middle East is fermenting, and the price is hitting the 25000 mark. The short - term core operating range is expected to be 24000 - 26000, and long positions are recommended to be held [22][24]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: The price is strongly supported by the price of primary aluminum, and the upward and downward spaces are limited. The short - term price operating range is expected to be 23000 - 24500 [25][26]. - **Zinc**: Zinc prices have rebounded, and spot transactions are average. The supply - demand cycle is weak, and the smelting cost will support the zinc price. It is recommended to take a low - buying strategy on dips [27][30]. - **Tin**: Similar to the analysis in the daily selection, tin prices are expected to be strong in the short term, and it is recommended to buy long positions [31][35]. - **Nickel**: The market is oscillating, and the Indonesian export tax policy is still uncertain. The main contract is expected to operate in the range of 134000 - 140000 [36][38]. - **Stainless Steel**: Cost support is strengthening, and the market is maintaining a strong - oscillating trend. The main contract is expected to operate in the range of 14200 - 14800, and a mid - term low - buying strategy is recommended [38][41]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: Supply expectations are uncertain, and the market has fallen significantly. The short - term market may adjust, and it is recommended to wait and see and conduct short - term range operations [42][45]. - **Polysilicon**: The market is oversupplied, and the futures are oscillating downward. It is recommended to wait and see [46][47]. - **Industrial Silicon**: Production control has not been achieved, and the futures are falling. It is expected to oscillate in the range of 8000 - 9000, and strategies such as short - selling at high prices or long - buying at low prices can be considered [48][51]. 3.4 Ferrous Metals - **Steel**: Raw material prices support the steel price center. Supply and demand are seasonally rising, and the steel price's upward drive mainly comes from the raw material side [52][53]. - **Iron Ore**: Short - term shipments have declined, and the supply - demand pattern has improved. The main contract is expected to oscillate at a high level in the range of 780 - 830 [54][56]. - **Coking Coal**: Auction transactions have declined, and the market is affected by geopolitical risks. It is recommended to wait and see, with the 2605 contract referring to the range of 1050 - 1250 [57][59]. - **Coke**: The spot price increase is about to be implemented, and the market is following the trend of coking coal. It is recommended to wait and see, with the 2605 contract referring to the range of 1600 - 1800 [60][63]. - **Silicon Iron**: It is necessary to pay attention to the change in settlement electricity prices, and the market is in a tight - balance state. It is recommended to conduct range operations in the range of 5800 - 6200 [64][65]. - **Manganese Silicon**: Production cuts have been implemented, and the cost support of manganese ore may weaken. It is expected to oscillate strongly in the range of 5700 - 6800 [67][69]. 3.5 Agricultural Products - **Meal**: The US soybean planting intention has been slightly increased, and the domestic soybean meal spot market is pessimistic. The future supply pressure will increase, and the soybean meal lacks effective support [70][72]. - **Live Pigs**: Similar to the analysis in the daily selection, spot support is limited, and capacity pressure suppresses the far - month contracts [73][74]. - **Corn**: The bottom support is strong, and the decline is limited. It is necessary to pay attention to the subsequent policy release [75][77]. - **Sugar**: The spot trading is average, and the market is maintaining a high - level oscillation. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term [78][80]. - **Cotton**: The USDA report shows an increase in the US cotton planting area, and domestic downstream enterprises are cautious in restocking. It is necessary to focus on the actual orders of downstream enterprises, the change in the new - season planting area, and the weather in the main production areas [80][82]. - **Eggs**: Terminal sales are slow, and egg prices are generally falling. It is expected to maintain a low - level oscillation and a weak trend [83][84]. - **Oils**: Indonesia's plan to promote B50 in July has boosted the oil market. Palm oil may rise in the short term, soybean oil is affected by the increase in US soybean planting area, and rapeseed oil is following the international oil market and maintaining a wide - range oscillation [85][87]. - **Jujubes**: The supply - demand pattern is loose, and the price is expected to oscillate and fall to build a bottom. It is expected to fluctuate in the range of 8500 - 9500 [88][89]. - **Apples**: The Tomb - sweeping Festival stocking is less than expected, and the price is continuing to weaken. The 05 contract is supported by low inventory, and the 10 contract is affected by the weather expectation of the new - season flowering period [90][91]. 3.6 Energy - Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: The US and Iran have sent signals to cool down the conflict, and oil prices are running weakly. The short - term may be in a weak - oscillation pattern, but the supply shortage still exists, and it is necessary to pay attention to the negotiation progress and the navigation situation of the Bab el - Mandeb Strait [92][93]. - **PX**: Affected by the geopolitical situation, PX is oscillating at a high level. The short - term supply and demand are weak, but the overall supply - demand in April is expected to be tight, and it is recommended to wait and see [94][95]. - **PTA**: Similar to PX, it is oscillating at a high level. The 4 - month inventory is expected to accumulate, and the demand may drag down the raw materials. It is recommended to pay attention to the oil price trend [96][97]. - **Short - fiber**: It has limited self - driving force and follows the raw materials. It is recommended to pay attention to the restoration of the passage of the Strait of Hormuz and the cost transmission of downstream products [98]. - **Bottle - grade PET**: The supply is expected to be tight in April, and the processing fee is expected to be strong. It is recommended to take the same strategy as PTA [99][101]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The supply will decrease significantly in the second quarter, and the inventory will be significantly reduced. It still has the potential to rise, but attention should be paid to the risk of a decline after a rise [102]. - **Pure Benzene**: It is oscillating at a high level following the oil price. The supply is expected to decrease, and the supply - demand is expected to improve. It is recommended to wait and see [103]. - **Styrene**: Similar to pure benzene, it is oscillating at a high level following the oil price. The supply - demand has weakened, but it is still relatively tight. It is recommended to take the same strategy as pure benzene [104][105]. - **LLDPE**: The market is falling, and the basis is strengthening. The supply is expected to shrink, and the price has support at the bottom. It is expected to oscillate in a wide range [106]. - **PP**: Upstream production cuts are increasing, and the 05 contract has significantly reduced inventory. It is recommended to go long on the 09 contract on dips [107]. - **Methanol**: The market shows a near - strong and far - weak pattern. It is recommended to reduce long positions [108]. - **Caustic Soda**: The export expectation has been fulfilled, and the market has returned to the fundamentals. It is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term [109][110]. - **PVC**: The chemical market sentiment has subsided, and the price is adjusting. The short - term may be weakly adjusted, and attention should be paid to the geopolitical situation and the actual production suspension rhythm of the devices [111][112]. - **Urea**: There is no strong unilateral driving force, and the price is running in a range. It is recommended to pay attention to the downstream demand and policy dynamics, with the main contract referring to the range of 1830 - 1900 [113]. - **Soda Ash**: Cost support has weakened, and it is oscillating downward. It is recommended to hold short positions [114][117]. - **Glass**: Cost support has weakened, and it is approaching the previous low. It is recommended to hold short positions [114][118]. - **Natural Rubber**: The US and Iran have released signals to end the conflict, and rubber prices are rising. It is recommended to wait and see, with the operating range expected to be 16000 - 17500 [119][121]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: The situation in the Middle East is fluctuating, and BR is oscillating at a high level. It still has the potential to rise before the oil transportation in the Middle East is restored, but attention should be paid to the risk of a decline after a rise [121][123]. 3.7 Container Shipping to Europe - The off - season cargo - collection is under pressure, and the overall market is weakly oscillating. The 04 contract is oscillating widely around the spot price center, and the 06 contract is expected to oscillate widely following the geopolitical situation. It is recommended to operate in the range and pay attention to risks [123][125].

1. Report Information - **Industry**: Cotton [1] - **Date**: April 1, 2026 [2] - **Researchers**: Yu Lanlan, Lin Zhenlei, Wang Haifeng, Hong Chenliang, Liu Youran [3] 2. Core View - Zhengzhou cotton fluctuates and adjusts. The latest cotton price index for Grade 328 is 16,850 yuan/ton, up 27 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The downstream market has a general trading volume, with increasing inventory and weakening prices [7]. - Macroeconomic factors lead to rising market risk - aversion. The net position of CFTC US cotton funds continues to rise week - on - week, and the signing and shipment of US cotton turn from weak to strong. The domestic new cotton planting will start intensively in mid - to - early April, and the market is waiting for new information [8]. 3. Section Summaries 3.1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Review**: Zhengzhou cotton is in a fluctuating adjustment. The spot cotton price is rising, the trading of pure cotton yarn is average with increasing inventory, the all - cotton grey cloth market is weakening, and clothing orders are approaching the end with difficult subsequent order connection. The net position of CFTC US cotton funds is rising, and the signing and shipment are getting better. The domestic new cotton planting is about to start intensively [7][8]. - **Suggestions**: Before the release of the cotton planting intention report, the market is in a wait - and - see mood. Attention should be paid to the new cotton expectations and actual planting conditions in the 2026/27 season [8]. 3.2. Industry News - StoneX maintains the forecast of Brazil's 2025/26 cotton production at 3.74 million tons. The growth of cotton in Mato Grosso is in the early stage, and the rainfall in April will determine the cotton yield per unit area, especially in late - sown areas [9]. 3.3. Data Overview - The report provides multiple charts related to cotton prices (including spot, futures, price index), spreads, inventories (commercial, industrial), and exchange rates (USD/CNY, USD/INR) [17][18][30].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the report 2. Core Views of the Report - The short - term overseas geopolitical situation may continue to suppress the stock index trend, but after a sharp market decline, the possibility of policy support increases, and the further decline space of the stock index is limited [1] - Multiple factors such as allocation demand, loose monetary policy expectations, supply pressure from fiscal efforts, and profit - taking behavior of trading desks lead to the bond market oscillating [1] - Geopolitical factors in the Middle East cause market sentiment to fluctuate, affecting the prices of various commodities, and most commodities show oscillating trends [1] 3. Summary by Industry Macro - finance - **Stock index**: Short - term geopolitical situation suppresses the trend, but the decline space is limited. Pay attention to long - position layout opportunities after the mitigation of geopolitical disturbances in the Middle East [1] - **Bonds**: Oscillate under the influence of multiple factors [1] Non - ferrous metals - **Copper**: Maintain an oscillating trend due to the complex Middle East situation [1] - **Aluminum**: The price rises due to the attack on UAE aluminum industry. Pay attention to low - buying opportunities as Middle East supply disturbances support the price [1] - **Alumina**: The price is supported to rise, but the supply surplus pattern remains unchanged, and the upward space is limited [1] - **Zinc**: With a weak fundamental outlook, it is considered for short - position allocation. The reversal depends on European natural gas prices [1] - **Nickel**: The price may oscillate at a high level due to Indonesia's policy and cost concerns. Operate with short - term low - buying and control risks [1] - **Stainless steel**: Oscillate. Pay attention to demand acceptance and consider short - term low - buying opportunities [1] - **Tin**: Considered relatively strong in the short term due to potential production impact from diesel supply shortages in major producing countries [1] Precious metals and new energy - **Precious metals**: Concerns about stagflation support price rebounds, but geopolitical risks may cause short - term fluctuations, and prices are expected to oscillate within a range [1] - **Platinum and palladium**: Geopolitical news drives price rebounds, but geopolitical escalation and a strong dollar may suppress prices. They are expected to oscillate widely before the Middle East situation is clear [1] - **Industrial silicon**: Supply resumes production, demand is weak, and explicit inventory is being depleted [1] - **Polysilicon**: Faces liquidity risks [1] - **Lithium carbonate**: Entering the de - stocking cycle, with limited total inventory pressure and a certain discount in futures prices, but demand is average [1] Ferrous metals - **Rebar**: Oscillate. Price drivers come from cost support and low futures price valuations [1] - **Hot - rolled coil**: Supply and demand are both strong and in the de - stocking cycle, but inventory is high. Consider an oscillating approach and gradually enter a new round of positive arbitrage positions [1] - **Iron ore**: The price may oscillate at a high level. Avoid chasing highs or lows and operate within a range [1] - **Coking coal**: There may be a rapid and sharp upward correction, but beware of risks from the development of the war. Exit long positions in time if the Strait is navigable [1] - **Coke**: The logic is the same as that of coking coal [1] Agricultural products - **Palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil**: High crude oil prices and increased US EPA quotas may push up the far - month price center. Pay attention to relevant policies [1] - **Cotton**: Internationally, the global cotton inventory is expected to tighten. Domestically, the price is expected to rise with demand recovery and reduced planting expectations [1] - **Sugar**: Globally, there is a structural surplus. Domestically, the supply is also abundant, and the price is expected to have limited fluctuations with an internal - strong and external - weak pattern [1] - **Corn**: The price is expected to oscillate and correct in the short term, but the correction range is limited [1] - **Soybean**: The May soybean arrival is sufficient, and there is delivery pressure. Wait for the callback to layout long positions in the far - month contracts [1] - **Paper pulp**: The basic situation is weak, and it is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term [1] - **Log**: The price is expected to rise due to the impact of the US - Iran war on the outer - market quotation [1] - **Live pigs**: The spot price is gradually stabilizing, and production capacity needs further release [1] Energy and chemicals - **Fuel oil**: Supply - side production cuts, transportation disruptions, and negotiation news disturbances affect the price [1] - **Asphalt**: The impact of Iranian imports on the domestic market is small, and it is relatively weakly affected in the energy sector [1] - **Natural rubber**: Supported by raw material costs, with positive market sentiment, normal climate in the producing areas, and a relatively high futures - spot price difference [1] - **BR rubber**: Affected by the US - Iran situation, prices rise, and the inventory may turn to de - stocking [1] - **PTA**: Affected by crude oil fluctuations and PX supply shortages, the Asian polyester industry chain may face production decline risks [1] - **Ethylene glycol**: Affected by the Middle East situation, the price rises due to raw material shortages [1] - **Crude oil**: Geopolitical factors drive the price to strengthen, and Northeast Asian refineries face supply shortages [1] - **Styrene**: Supply shortages of ethylene and benzene lead to profit inversion for non - integrated producers, and the supply - side crisis intensifies [1] - **Urea**: Export sentiment eases, and there is limited upward space, but there is support from anti - inversion and cost [1] - **Methanol**: Iranian imports are affected, but domestic production is high and inventory is at a historical high [1] - **PE and PP**: Geopolitical tensions limit raw material supply, and the fundamentals are weak [1] - **PVC**: Future prospects are optimistic as capacity is expected to be cleared, but ethylene - based production faces raw material shortages [1] - **PG**: The price is relatively strong, but the demand side is short - term bearish, and there is a divergence between the domestic and international markets [1] Others - **Container shipping on the European route**: Affected by the war, the price is generally stable, and shipping companies have a strong willingness to raise prices after the off - season in March [1]

Group 1: General Information - Reported industry: Cotton [1] - Report date: March 31, 2026 [2] - Researchers: Yu Lanlan, Lin Zhenlei, Wang Haifeng, Hong Chenliang, Liu Youran [3] Group 2: Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Zhengzhou cotton has been oscillating and adjusting. The latest price index of Grade 328 cotton is 16,823 yuan/ton, up 9 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The prices of 2025/26 Southern Xinjiang Kashi machine-picked Grade 31 double 29/cotton with impurity within 3 are mostly above CF05+1200, with a small number of low prices between 1150 - 1200. The higher quotes in Northern Xinjiang are above 1400, with a small number of low prices between 1300 - 1400, for self-pickup in Xinjiang [7]. - The trading of pure cotton yarn is average. Spinning mills mainly execute previous orders, with few new orders, and inventory has increased. Downstream weavers and traders are cautious, mainly making rigid purchases. Prices are stable with a weak trend. The high-priced spot goods from the previous period are decreasing, some traders are offering discounts for promotion, and the quotes of spinning mills are temporarily stable. The trading atmosphere in the all-cotton grey fabric market has become weaker, prices are loose, and prices can be negotiated depending on the quantity. Garment orders are approaching the end, and it is difficult to connect subsequent orders. Export orders are still sluggish, and it is expected that the improvement of subsequent orders will be limited [7]. - In the international market, the net position of CFTC US cotton funds has continued to rise week-on-week. The weekly signing and shipment have changed from weak to strong. The drought level in the main producing areas and Texas is still at a relatively high level in recent years. The grain-to-cotton price ratio is not much different from the same period last year. Attention should be paid to the results of the USDA cotton planting intention survey, and the US cotton maintains a strong trend. In the domestic market, the inspection volume of Xinjiang cotton is still slightly increasing. The planting of new cotton in the next season has started in some areas, and it is expected to start intensively in mid-to-early April. In the downstream of the industry, spinning mills mainly execute previous orders. As the raw material cost gradually rises, the operating rate of inland spinning mills has slightly decreased. In the short term, the market will continue to oscillate and adjust, lacking new drivers. Attention should be paid to the guidance of the new cotton expectations and actual planting conditions in the 2026/27 season [8]. Group 3: Industry News - As of March 24, the drought degree and coverage index of the main US cotton producing areas (93.0%) is 238, a week-on-week increase of 11 and a year-on-year increase of 86. The drought degree and coverage index of Texas is 266, a week-on-week increase of 13 and a year-on-year increase of 35. The drought index in the main US cotton producing areas is rising, and the drought level in the main producing areas and Texas is still at a relatively high level in recent years. According to the quarterly outlook, the drought in the main US cotton producing areas and Texas will continue from March to June, even intensify in the central and western regions, and ease in the eastern producing areas [9]. - The preparations for spring plowing in the Korla cotton area of Xinjiang are basically in place, and it is expected to enter the intensive sowing stage after the Tomb-Sweeping Festival. It is understood that the local area follows the previous planting rhythm, and most cotton fields are planned to be sown intensively after the Tomb-Sweeping Festival. Currently, only a few plots have started sowing [9]. Group 4: Data Overview - The report provides multiple data charts, including China's cotton price index, cotton spot price, cotton futures price, cotton basis change, CF5 - 9 spread, CF9 - 1 spread, CF1 - 5 spread, cotton commercial inventory, cotton industrial inventory, warehouse receipt total, US dollar to RMB exchange rate, and US dollar to Indian rupee exchange rate, with data sources from Wind and the Research and Development Department of CCB Futures [17][18][20][28][30]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The fundamentals of Zhengzhou cotton have certain support. It is expected that the short - term trend of US cotton will be mainly oscillating and strengthening. One can consider building long positions on dips. For arbitrage and options, it is recommended to wait and see [6][7] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs First Part: Market Information - **Futures Disk Data**: For cotton futures, the CF01 contract closed at 15930 with no change, the CF05 contract closed at 15385, down 10, and the CF09 contract closed at 15515, down 15. For棉纱 futures, the CY01 contract had no trading, the CY05 contract closed at 21515, up 80, and the CY09 contract closed at 21685, up 75 [2] - **Spot Price Data**: CCIndex3128B was 16823 yuan/ton, up 78; Cot A was 80.10 cents/pound; FC Index:M: arrival price was 78.78, up 1.20; etc [2] - **Spread Data**: In cotton inter - period spreads, the 1 - 5 spread was 545, up 10; in 棉纱 inter - period spreads, the 1 - 5 spread was - 21515, down 80. For cross - variety spreads, CY01 - CF01 was (15930) with no change [2] Second Part: Market News and Views Cotton Market News - As of March 26, 2026, the cumulative picked seed cotton converted to lint cotton was 741.0 million tons, an increase of 73.4 million tons year - on - year; the cumulative sold lint cotton was 586.3 million tons, an increase of 174.6 million tons year - on - year [4] - On March 27, 2026, the spread between domestic and foreign cotton continued to converge. The domestic cotton production increase has been confirmed, and the peak season of "Golden March and Silver April" for downstream is approaching the end. The cotton yarn market trading is okay, but spinning mills are cautious about restocking due to poor spinning profits [4] - In February 2026, Pakistan's textile and clothing export value was 1.311 billion US dollars, a year - on - year decrease of 7.22% and a month - on - month decrease of 24.59%. From January to February 2026, the total textile and clothing export value was 3.05 billion US dollars, a year - on - year decrease of 1.59% [5] Trading Logic - In terms of fundamentals, the supply in the current year is basically determined, but there are rumors of production cuts in the new year, which support the futures price. The current commercial inventory is lower than last year, which is bullish for cotton prices. The downstream market is operating well, and yarn prices have been raised recently. However, the market is cautious about the future [6] Trading Strategy - **Unilateral**: It is expected that the short - term trend of US cotton will be mainly oscillating and strengthening. One can consider building long positions on dips for Zhengzhou cotton [7] - **Arbitrage**: Wait and see [7] - **Options**: Wait and see [7] Cotton Yarn Industry News - The trading of pure cotton yarn is okay, but it is weakening marginally. High - quality yarn prices are firm, while ordinary - quality yarn prices are stable or slightly decreasing. After the Tomb - sweeping Festival is an important observation point [8] - The sales of the all - cotton grey cloth market are gradually weakening. Except for home textile product orders, knitting and woven fabric orders are difficult to continue [8] Third Part: Relevant Attachments - The report provides charts such as the spread between domestic and foreign cotton prices under 1% tariff, the basis of cotton in January, May, and September, the spread between CY05 - CF05 and CY01 - CF01, and the spread between CF9 - 1 and CF5 - 9 [10][11][15]

1. Report Information - Reported industry: Cotton [1] - Date: March 27, 2026 [2] - Researchers: Yu Lanlan, Lin Zhenlei, Wang Haifeng, Hong Chenliang, Liu Youran [3] 2. Core Viewpoints - Zhengzhou cotton closed higher in a volatile manner. The spot cotton price index rose, and the downstream market was generally lackluster. Spinning mills mainly executed previous orders, with few new orders and increasing inventory. The international market is awaiting the US crop planting intention report, and the domestic market is preparing for spring sowing. The short - term market lacks new drivers, and attention should be paid to the new cotton expectations and actual planting conditions for the 2026/27 season [7][8] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Review**: Zhengzhou cotton futures showed different price changes. For example, CF2605 opened at 15310, closed at 15340, with a change of 110 and a change rate of 0.72%. The latest 328 - grade cotton price index was 16745 yuan/ton, up 34 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The downstream market was weak, with general cotton yarn trading, few new orders, and increasing inventory. The international market is awaiting the US crop planting intention report, and the domestic market is preparing for spring sowing [7][8] - **Operation Suggestions**: The short - term market lacks new drivers, and attention should be paid to the new cotton expectations and actual planting conditions for the 2026/27 season [8] 3.2. Industry News - Brazil exported 27.05 tons of cotton in February 2026, and the cumulative cotton export volume from August 2025 to February 2026 reached 1.9925 million tons, a 4.6% increase year - on - year [9] - As of March 25, 2026, the national cumulative cotton inspection volume was 7.6037 million tons, a 12.3% increase year - on - year, with 7.4998 million tons in Xinjiang and 65,300 tons in the inland [9] 3.3. Data Overview - The report provides multiple data charts, including the China Cotton Price Index, cotton spot price, cotton futures price, cotton basis change, various futures spreads, cotton commercial and industrial inventories, warehouse receipt volume, and exchange rates [17][18][20][28][30]

Group 1: General Information - Reported industry: Cotton [1] - Report date: March 26, 2026 [2] Group 2: Market Review and Operation Suggestions Market Review - Zhengzhou cotton closed up in a volatile manner. The latest cotton price index for grade 328 was 16,711 yuan/ton, down 21 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The price of 2025/26 machine-picked cotton of grade 31 in southern Xinjiang was mostly quoted at CF05 + 1150 or above, and the higher quotes in northern Xinjiang were above 1400, with the mainstream negotiable price between 1300 and 1400, for pick-up within Xinjiang [7]. - The trading of pure cotton yarn was average. Spinning mills mainly executed previous orders, with few new orders, and inventory increased. Downstream weavers and traders were cautious, mainly making rigid purchases. Prices were stable to weak, the quantity of high-priced spot goods decreased, some traders offered discounts for promotion, and yarn mills' quotes remained stable. The trading atmosphere in the pure cotton grey fabric market became weaker, prices were flexible and negotiable depending on the volume. Garment orders were approaching the end, and it was difficult to connect subsequent orders. Export orders remained sluggish, and it was expected that the improvement of subsequent orders would be limited [7]. - In the international market, as of the week ending March 17, according to CFTC, the non-commercial long positions of funds in US cotton futures increased for the fourth consecutive week, and the net long positions turned positive. The drought level in the main cotton-producing areas of the US, especially Texas, remained at a relatively high level in recent years, providing support for the external market. In the domestic market, the Xinjiang Climate Center (Agricultural Meteorological Observatory) issued a forecast for the suitable sowing period of cotton in southern Xinjiang in 2026. Most cotton-growing areas in southern Xinjiang had an earlier suitable sowing period than usual and close to that of last year. The western part of Hotan Prefecture and the northern part of Kizilsu Kirgiz Autonomous Prefecture would start sowing in early April, and the suitable sowing period for most other areas in southern Xinjiang was from early to mid-April. Recently, new orders and customer inquiries in the downstream of the industry decreased significantly compared with the beginning of "Golden March". Some spinning mills had no production plans for combed high-count yarn, and inventory increased. In the short term, the futures market closed up with reduced positions, lacking new drivers, and was in a volatile adjustment. Attention should be paid to the expectations and actual planting situation of new cotton in the 2026/27 season [8]. Operation Suggestions - Short-term market is in a volatile adjustment, pay attention to the expectations and actual planting situation of new cotton in the 2026/27 season [8] Group 3: Industry News - The Xinjiang Climate Center (Agricultural Meteorological Observatory) issued a forecast for the suitable sowing period of cotton in southern Xinjiang in 2026. In Aksu region, Kucha City, Shaya County, and Alar City could start sowing on March 25, with the suitable sowing period from April 1 to 15. In Kashgar region, Bachu County and Maigaiti County would start sowing on March 27, with the suitable sowing period from April 3 to 18. In Hotan region, Moyu County, Hotan City, Lop County, and Cele County would start sowing on March 29, with the suitable sowing period from April 3 to 10 [9] Group 4: Data Overview - The report provides multiple data charts, including the China Cotton Price Index, cotton spot price, cotton futures price, cotton basis change, CF5 - 9 spread, CF9 - 1 spread, CF1 - 5 spread, cotton commercial inventory, cotton industrial inventory, warehouse receipt volume, US dollar to RMB exchange rate, and US dollar to Indian rupee exchange rate [17][18][20][28][30]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The issuance of 300,000 tons of import sliding - duty quotas is likely to benefit US cotton, narrowing the price gap between domestic and international cotton. The impact on domestic cotton supply is relatively small, and the price of Zhengzhou cotton may follow the upward trend of US cotton. Although cotton prices have declined due to the overall market atmosphere, the downward space is expected to be limited [6]. - In the short - term future, US cotton is expected to fluctuate and strengthen. The fundamentals of Zhengzhou cotton have not changed significantly. It is advisable to build long positions at low prices and not chase high prices. For arbitrage and options, it is recommended to wait and see [7]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Information - **Futures Market**: The closing prices of CF01, CF05, and CF09 contracts are 15,865, 15,340, and 15,465 respectively, with price increases of 85, 125, and 110. The trading volumes are 5,404, 351,511, and 169,007 hands respectively, with changes of - 86, + 108,565, and + 47,783 hands. The open interest is 22,681, 553,641, and 326,286, with changes of - 974, - 17,996, and + 5,316. For CY01, CY05, and CY09 contracts, the closing prices are 0, 21,670, and 21,670 respectively, with price increases of 0, 115, and 240. The trading volumes are 0, 14,593, and 28 hands respectively, and the open interest is 0, 12,972, and 67, with changes of 0, - 994, and + 5 [2]. - **Spot Market**: The price of CCIndex3128B is 16,711 yuan/ton, up 119 yuan; the price of IndexC32S CY is 22,180 yuan, up 30 yuan. The price of Cot A is 77.75 cents/pound, and the price of FCY IndexC33S is 22,528 yuan, up 12 yuan. The price of polyester staple fiber is 7,450 yuan, up 70 yuan; the price of pure polyester yarn T32S is 11,400 yuan, unchanged. The price of viscose staple fiber is 13,200 yuan, up 50 yuan; the price of viscose yarn R30S is 17,400 yuan, unchanged [2]. - **Price Spreads**: In the cotton inter - month spreads, the 1 - 5 spread is 525, down 40; the 5 - 9 spread is - 125, up 15; the 9 - 1 spread is - 400, up 25. In the cotton yarn inter - month spreads, the 1 - 5 spread is - 21,670, down 115; the 5 - 9 spread is 0, down 125; the 9 - 1 spread is 21,670, up 240. In the cross - variety spreads, CY01 - CF01 is (15,865), down 85; CY05 - CF05 is 6,330, down 10; CY09 - CF09 is 6,205, up 130. The 1% tariff - based domestic - foreign cotton price gap is 2,688, down 547; the sliding - duty domestic - foreign cotton price gap is - 1,342, down 184; the domestic - foreign cotton yarn price gap is - 348, up 18 [2]. 3.2 Market News and Views 3.2.1 Cotton Market News - On March 25, 2026, the road freight price index for Xinjiang - bound cotton was 0.1561 yuan/ton·km, a 0.06% decrease from the previous day. Transport demand decreased, and freight capacity was relatively sufficient, resulting in a slight decline in the freight price index. In the short - term, the index will fluctuate within a narrow range [4]. - In February 2026, Pakistan's textile and clothing export value reached 1.311 billion US dollars, a year - on - year decrease of 7.22% and a month - on - month decrease of 24.59%. The export volume of cotton yarn was 30,900 tons, a year - on - year increase of 56.97% and a month - on - month increase of 1.52%. The export volume of cotton cloth was 259 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 9.2% and a month - on - month decrease of 19.37% [4]. - In 2026, from January to February, China's cumulative import volume of cotton cloth was 61 million meters, a year - on - year increase of 7.76%; the cumulative import weight was 4,600 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 29.63%; the cumulative import value was 29 million US dollars, a year - on - year decrease of 38.65% [5]. 3.2.2 Trading Logic - The issuance of 300,000 tons of import sliding - duty quotas, which is only 100,000 tons more than last year, has a relatively small impact on domestic supply. However, the issuance time is earlier, leaving room for future policies. It is expected to benefit US cotton, narrowing the domestic - foreign price gap, and Zhengzhou cotton prices may follow the upward trend of US cotton. Although cotton prices have declined due to the impact of the overall market atmosphere, the downward space is limited [6]. 3.2.3 Trading Strategies - **Unilateral**: In the short - term future, US cotton is expected to fluctuate and strengthen. The fundamentals of Zhengzhou cotton have not changed significantly. It is advisable to build long positions at low prices and not chase high prices. - **Arbitrage**: Wait and see. - **Options**: Wait and see [7]. 3.2.4 Cotton Yarn Industry News - The trading of pure cotton yarn is average. Spinning mills mainly execute previous orders, with few new orders, and inventory has increased. Downstream weavers and traders are cautious, mainly making purchases based on rigid demand. Prices are stable with a downward trend, the quantity of high - priced spot goods is decreasing, some traders are offering discounts, and yarn mills' quotes remain stable. - The market atmosphere has weakened recently, and the production and sales of all - cotton grey fabric have also declined. Due to the sluggish overseas economy, the number of overseas orders has decreased. The number of new domestic orders is also scarce, and in - production orders are gradually shrinking. It is expected that the number of orders will continue to decrease in the future, and price negotiations for grey fabric have increased [8]. 3.3 Relevant Attachments - The report provides multiple charts, including the 1% tariff - based domestic - foreign cotton price gap, cotton 1 - month, 5 - month, and 9 - month basis, CY05 - CF05 and CY01 - CF01 spreads, and CF9 - 1 and CF5 - 9 spreads [9][10][11][13][14][15][16][17][19][20]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content found. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The market is significantly affected by the geopolitical conflict between the US, Israel, and Iran, with prices of various commodities fluctuating greatly. The market is constantly adjusting its expectations for the development of the war, and the uncertainty is high [2][3][4]. - Different industries have different supply - demand situations. Some industries are facing supply shortages due to the conflict, while others are affected by demand changes. For example, the energy and chemical industries are strongly affected by supply disruptions, while the agricultural and livestock industries are more affected by factors such as seasonal demand and production capacity [2][66][69]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Daily Selections - **Stainless Steel**: The macro - pressure on stainless steel has improved, and supply - demand is gradually recovering. The raw material cost is strongly supported, and the short - term is expected to maintain a relatively strong shock, with the main contract referring to the 14000 - 14600 range [2][38][40]. - **Methanol**: Affected by the uncertainty of the Middle - East situation, the fluctuation of methanol is magnified. The import reduction dominates the current market, but attention should be paid to the sustainability of demand and policy risks [3][106]. - **Rebar**: The steel price center has risen, and attention should be paid to the pressure at the previous high. The supply and demand of steel are both increasing, and the inventory has entered the destocking cycle [4][50][51]. - **Pig**: The pressure of pig slaughter is large, and attention should be paid to the intensity of supply reduction. The futures and spot prices are expected to continue to bottom out, but the downward space is limited after the futures price falls below 10000 [5][69][70]. 3.2 Macro - finance - **Stock Index Futures**: The A - share market has experienced a significant correction, with the stock index futures following the decline. It is recommended to closely monitor the inflow of broad - based ETFs and wait for the stabilization opportunity [6][7][9]. - **Precious Metals**: The news of the conflict between the US and Iran has repeatedly aggravated market turmoil. The precious metals have rebounded after a sharp decline. In the short term, it is recommended to wait and see for the situation to become clear [10][12][13]. 3.3 Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The situation between the US and Iran may ease, and the copper price has rebounded. The short - term copper price is in the adjustment stage, and the long - term multi - order layout opportunity may be provided by the short - term adjustment [14][17]. - **Alumina**: The speculative demand has increased, and the spot price has continued to rise. The current market is in a state of oversupply, and the short - term strategy is to maintain a short - selling idea at high prices [18][20]. - **Aluminum**: The expectation of the easing of the conflict between the US and Iran has increased, and the downward space of the aluminum price is limited. The short - term aluminum price will maintain a wide - range shock, and the long - term bullish logic still holds [21][23]. - **Zinc**: The social inventory has decreased, and the zinc price has stopped falling and stabilized. The short - term zinc price is under pressure, but the long - term supply - demand fundamentals are relatively stable [26][29]. - **Tin**: Trump's easing of the threat to Iran has improved the market risk sentiment, and the tin price has rebounded at night. If the war is expected to end, long - orders can be considered [29][33][34]. - **Nickel**: The macro - expectation is repeated, and the nickel price fluctuates widely. The short - term is expected to be in a range - bound shock [34][37][38]. - **Stainless Steel**: The macro - pressure has improved, and the supply - demand is gradually recovering. The short - term is expected to maintain a relatively strong shock [38][40]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The macro - expectation is repeated, and the lithium carbonate price fluctuates greatly. The short - term is expected to be in a relatively strong range adjustment [41][44]. - **Polysilicon**: The supply exceeds demand, the spot price has fallen, and the futures are approaching the limit - down. It is recommended to wait and see [45][46][47]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The cost center has moved up, the spot price has risen, and the futures have oscillated upward. It is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of buying at low prices [47][49]. 3.4 Ferrous Metals - **Steel**: The steel price center has risen, and attention should be paid to the pressure at the previous high. The supply and demand of steel are both increasing, and the inventory has entered the destocking cycle [50][51]. - **Iron Ore**: The macro - disturbance has intensified, and the iron - making production has accelerated. The short - term iron ore main contract is expected to be in a high - level shock [52][53]. - **Coking Coal**: Some coal types have risen, and the overseas energy commodities have fluctuated greatly. It is recommended to go long on the coking coal 2605 contract at low prices [55][57]. - **Coke**: The coke spot price has increased, and the cost has pushed up the increase expectation. It is recommended to go long on the coke 2605 contract at low prices [58][59]. - **Silicon Iron**: The geopolitical conflict continues, and the supply and demand of silicon iron are both increasing. The short - term price is expected to be in a wide - range shock [60][61]. - **Manganese Silicon**: The market sentiment is changeable, and the cost of manganese silicon has increased. The short - term price is expected to be in a wide - range shock [63][65]. 3.5 Agricultural Products - **Meal**: The US soybeans are in a high - level shock, and the domestic spot price has fallen slightly. The short - term domestic soybean meal is expected to be in a high - level shock [66][68]. - **Pig**: The pressure of pig slaughter is large, and attention should be paid to the intensity of supply reduction. The futures and spot prices are expected to continue to bottom out, but the downward space is limited after the futures price falls below 10000 [69][70]. - **Corn**: Driven by the rise of starch, the corn price is in a high - level shock. The short - term rise of the corn price is restricted [71][73]. - **Sugar**: The spot price has increased, but the transaction is average. The short - term sugar futures are expected to maintain a high - level and relatively strong shock [74]. - **Cotton**: The market trading is stable, and the cotton price is adjusted within the range. The short - term cotton price is expected to be in a wide - range shock [77]. - **Egg**: The demand is boosted by stocking, and the egg price is stable and slightly strong. The short - term egg price is expected to maintain a low - level shock [80][81]. - **Oil**: Affected by geopolitical factors, the fluctuation of oil is intensified. Different types of oils have different market trends [82][84]. - **Jujube**: The supply exceeds demand, and the futures price is in a low - level range shock. The price is expected to be in the range of 8500 - 9500 yuan/ton [85][86]. - **Apple**: The market sentiment is weak, and the futures price has fallen from a high level. The 05 contract is expected to maintain a relatively strong shock, and the 10 contract needs to pay attention to the weather during the flowering period [87][88]. 3.6 Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: Trump has released a signal of easing, and the oil price has significantly corrected. The short - term oil price is expected to maintain a wide - range shock [90][91]. - **PX**: There are signs of geopolitical easing, and PX has adjusted with the oil price. It is recommended to exit the long - orders and wait and see [92][93]. - **PTA**: There are signs of geopolitical easing, and PTA has adjusted with the oil price. It is recommended to pay attention to the oil price trend [94][95]. - **Short - fiber**: It has limited self - driving force and follows the raw material price fluctuation. It is recommended to pay attention to the passage recovery of the Strait of Hormuz and the downstream cost transmission [96]. - **Bottle Chip**: The supply is expected to be in short supply, and the supply - demand is expected to be tight. It is recommended to go long on the PR2605 call option with a light position [98][99]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: Affected by the Middle - East conflict, the cost support is strong, and the destocking amplitude in the near - term is expected to increase. It is recommended to go long on the EG2605 call option with a light position [100]. - **Pure Benzene**: There are signs of geopolitical easing, and pure benzene has adjusted with the oil price. It is recommended to exit the long - orders and wait and see [101][102]. - **Styrene**: There are signs of geopolitical easing, and styrene has adjusted with the oil price. It is recommended to follow the strategy of pure benzene [103][104]. - **LLDPE**: The basis is risk - free, and the transaction is cold. The short - term market is in a wide - range shock [105]. - **PP**: The upstream shutdown and production reduction have increased, and the 05 contract has significantly reduced inventory. It is recommended to gradually take profit on the 5 - 9 positive spread [106]. - **Methanol**: Affected by the uncertainty of the Middle - East situation, the fluctuation of methanol is magnified. It is recommended to reduce the long - orders [3][106]. - **Caustic Soda**: The situation in the Middle - East has escalated, and the caustic soda price is running strongly. The short - term caustic soda price is expected to be strong [107][109]. - **PVC**: The geopolitical disturbance has brought export expectations, and the emotional fluctuation of PVC has been magnified. The short - term PVC price is passively pushed up [110][111]. - **Urea**: The situation in the Middle - East is tense, and the emotional fluctuation of urea has increased. It is recommended to take profit on the long - orders and exit in the short - term [112][114]. - **Soda Ash**: The supply is in a downward trend at a high level, and the cost has boosted the sentiment. The soda ash has rebounded. It is recommended to wait and see on the long - side and pay attention to the 5 - 9 reverse spread [114][118]. - **Glass**: The daily melting volume has continued to decline, and the cost has been boosted. It is recommended to wait and see [114][118]. - **Natural Rubber**: Trump has eased the threat to Iran, the market sentiment has eased, and the rubber price has stopped falling and rebounded. It is recommended to wait and see [119][121]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: Under the tense situation in the Middle - East, the cost support of BR is significantly enhanced, and BR is running strongly. It is recommended to pay attention to the risk of falling after the rise [121][123]. 3.7 Container Shipping to Europe - The geopolitical concern has increased, and the European line has significantly risen and then fallen during the session. It is recommended to wait for the market sentiment to cool down and pay attention to the long - order layout opportunity of the peak - season contract [123][124][126].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The issuance of 300,000 tons of import sliding tax quotas is likely to benefit US cotton, leading to a narrowing of the domestic - foreign price difference. The impact on domestic cotton supply is relatively small, and the price of Zhengzhou cotton may follow the upward trend of US cotton [6]. - Crude oil has declined recently, and cotton has also fallen under the overall market atmosphere. However, considering the current market support, the downward space is expected to be limited [6]. Group 3: Summary According to the Directory First Part: Market Information - **Futures Market**: For cotton futures, the closing prices of CF01, CF05, and CF09 contracts are 15,780, 15,215, and 15,355 respectively, with price changes of - 20, - 65, and - 45. For棉纱 futures, the closing prices of CY05 and CY09 contracts are 21,555 and 21,430 respectively, with price changes of 20 and 20. The CY01 contract has no trading data [2]. - **Spot Market**: The price of CCIndex3128B is 16,732 yuan/ton, up 83 yuan; the price of CY IndexC32S is 22,150 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan. Other spot prices such as Cot A, FCY IndexC33S, etc. also have corresponding changes [2]. - **Price Spreads**: In cotton inter - period spreads, the 1 - 5 spread is 565, up 45; the 5 - 9 spread is - 140, down 20; the 9 - 1 spread is - 425, down 25. In棉纱 inter - period spreads, the 1 - 5 spread is - 21,555, down 20; the 5 - 9 spread is 125, unchanged. In cross - variety spreads, CY01 - CF01 is - 15,780, up 20; CY05 - CF05 is 6,340, up 85; CY09 - CF09 is 6,075, up 65. The domestic - foreign cotton price spreads (1% tariff) is 2,709, down 386; the domestic - foreign cotton price spreads (sliding tax) is - 1,321, down 23; the domestic - foreign yarn price spread is - 366, up 116 [2]. Second Part: Market News and Views - **Cotton Market News** - On March 24, 2026, the road transportation price index of Xinjiang - outbound cotton was 0.1562 yuan/ton·km, up 0.58% month - on - month. The transportation demand decreased month - on - month, and the freight rate index is expected to fluctuate slightly in the short term [4]. - As of March 17, 2026, the net long position ratio of ICE cotton futures funds was - 11.67% (an increase of 8.9 percentage points week - on - week, and an increase of 2 percentage points last week) [4]. - Due to the continuous fermentation of the Middle East conflict, global oil and gas prices have risen significantly, and domestic fertilizer prices have generally increased. However, most cotton farmers who completed winter stockpiling before the Spring Festival are less affected, while those who did not will face increased procurement costs [5]. - **Trading Logic** - The issuance of 300,000 tons of import sliding tax quotas is likely to benefit US cotton and narrow the domestic - foreign price difference, with a relatively small impact on domestic cotton supply. Zhengzhou cotton prices may follow the upward trend of US cotton [6]. - **Trading Strategies** - **Unilateral**: It is expected that US cotton will be volatile and slightly stronger in the short term. The fundamentals of Zhengzhou cotton have not changed much. It is advisable to build long positions on dips and not chase high prices [7]. - **Arbitrage**: Wait and see [7]. - **Options**: Wait and see [7]. - **Cotton Yarn Industry News** - Spinning mills are actively purchasing raw materials. The trading in the pure cotton yarn market is fair, but downstream orders are weakening. Spinning mills are reluctant to lower prices, and the high - price spot prices of some products are weakening [8]. - The market of all - cotton grey cloth has not changed much, and the sales continue. The in - machine orders of weaving factories continue, mainly for domestic sales. Foreign trade inquiries are active, but orders need further confirmation. Weaving factories are trying to reduce inventory [8]. Third Part: Related Attachments - The report provides multiple charts, including the domestic - foreign cotton price difference under 1% tariff, the basis of cotton in January, May, and September, the spread between CY05 - CF05 and CY01 - CF01, and the spreads of CF9 - 1 and CF5 - 9 [9][11][15][17][19][22]