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中国房地产周报:新房成交量保持同比增长
ZHONGTAI INTERNATIONAL SECURITIES· 2025-03-05 02:15
Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook for the real estate industry, suggesting a stabilization and potential growth in the market [5][36]. Core Insights - The new housing transaction volume in 30 major cities reached 2.18 million square meters, representing a year-on-year increase of 36.9% and a month-on-month increase of 40.0% [1][13]. - Shenzhen leads in new housing sales among first-tier cities, with a year-on-year growth of 120.2% [2][18]. - The inventory-to-sales ratio for residential properties in major cities has improved, indicating a healthier market [3][23]. - Land transaction volume continues to decline, with a year-on-year drop of 39.0% across 100 major cities [4][26]. - The Central Political Bureau emphasized the need to stabilize the real estate and stock markets, indicating ongoing policy support [5][32]. - The Hang Seng China Mainland Property Index outperformed the broader market, rising by 6.2% [6][34]. - The upcoming National People's Congress is expected to continue policy support for the real estate market [7][36]. Summary by Sections New Housing Sales - New housing sales volume in 30 major cities reached 2.18 million square meters, up 36.9% year-on-year and 40.0% month-on-month [1][13]. - Year-on-year growth rates for first, second, and third-tier cities were +52.2%, +25.2%, and +51.8% respectively [1][13]. First-tier City Performance - Shenzhen's cumulative new housing sales reached 630,000 square meters, up 120.2% year-on-year [2][18]. - Beijing's sales volume was 700,000 square meters, down 29.6% year-on-year, while Shanghai and Guangzhou saw increases of 25.5% and 56.3% respectively [2][18]. Inventory and Sales Ratios - The inventory-to-sales ratio for major cities was 108.3, down from 188.7 year-on-year [3][23]. - First-tier cities had an inventory-to-sales ratio of 70.7, significantly lower than the previous year's 161.7 [3][23]. Land Transactions - Land transaction volume in 100 major cities was 19.08 million square meters, down 39.0% year-on-year [4][26]. - First-tier cities saw a 61.5% year-on-year decline in land transactions [4][26]. Policy and Market Outlook - The Central Political Bureau's meeting highlighted the importance of stabilizing the real estate market [5][32]. - The Hang Seng China Mainland Property Index's performance indicates a positive trend in the sector [6][34]. - The upcoming National People's Congress is anticipated to reinforce supportive policies for the real estate market [7][36].