Group 1 - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell faces a dilemma as he prepares for his farewell speech before his term ends in May 2024, with conflicting economic data complicating his "data-dependent" strategy [2][3] - There is a strong expectation among investors and the Trump administration that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates in September, but the communication of such a decision will be crucial [3][4] - Powell's tenure has been marked by significant policy innovations due to the global pandemic, followed by record interest rate hikes in response to inflation [3][4] Group 2 - Current inflation in the U.S. remains about 1 percentage point above the target, with some officials arguing that the risks of sustained price increases are minimal [5][6] - Powell's cautious approach is characterized by a reliance on data, which may lead to delayed responses to economic changes, as evidenced by recent downward revisions in employment growth estimates [6][8] - The economic landscape has shifted since last year, with lower interest rates and stable unemployment, yet inflation rates have not significantly decreased, complicating the decision-making process for the Federal Reserve [9]