Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that Stephen Miran advocates for a more aggressive interest rate cut of 50 basis points to achieve a neutral policy rate, which he believes is significantly lower than the current level [1][4][6] - Miran argues that the recent pressures in the credit market may indicate that monetary policy is too tight, suggesting that these issues are a sign of the restrictive stance of the current policy [7] - He emphasizes that if future economic data meets expectations, the Federal Reserve should consider another 50 basis point cut [6][5] Group 2 - Miran's stance contrasts with the Federal Reserve's recent decision to lower the benchmark interest rate by only 25 basis points, highlighting his continued opposition to the more cautious approach taken by the majority [5][6] - He notes that the neutral policy rate has decreased compared to last year, suggesting it should be around 0.5%, while the current federal funds rate is between 3.75% and 4% [6] - Miran's comments come amid concerns from other Federal Reserve officials regarding the risks of rapid rate cuts potentially leading to sustained inflation [7]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve Governor Milan advocates for a significant reduction in interest rates, arguing that current monetary policy remains overly tight and far from neutral levels [1][2]. Group 1: Monetary Policy Stance - Milan believes that the Federal Reserve's current policy is too restrictive and that there is no need to maintain such strict measures given his more optimistic inflation outlook compared to other committee members [1]. - He has repeatedly called for a more accommodative monetary policy, opposing the decision to lower the Fed's policy rate by 25 basis points in September and October, instead advocating for a 50 basis point cut [1]. - Milan emphasizes that the neutral policy rate is significantly lower than the current level and should be achieved through a series of 50 basis point cuts [1]. Group 2: Economic Concerns - Recent signs of tightening in the credit market may indicate that monetary policy is still too restrictive, according to Milan, who notes that seemingly unrelated credit issues can reflect the orientation of monetary policy when they suddenly become apparent [1]. - He warns that maintaining a tight policy stance increases the risk of triggering an economic recession due to the monetary policy itself [2]. Group 3: Federal Reserve's Recent Actions - The Federal Reserve officials have lowered rates by 25 basis points for the second consecutive month, amid concerns over a significant slowdown in U.S. job growth during the summer [1]. - Fed Chair Powell stated that another rate cut in December is not guaranteed, reflecting a cautious approach among policymakers regarding further reductions [1].

Group 1 - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell faces a dilemma as he prepares for his farewell speech before his term ends in May 2024, with conflicting economic data complicating his "data-dependent" strategy [2][3] - There is a strong expectation among investors and the Trump administration that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates in September, but the communication of such a decision will be crucial [3][4] - Powell's tenure has been marked by significant policy innovations due to the global pandemic, followed by record interest rate hikes in response to inflation [3][4] Group 2 - Current inflation in the U.S. remains about 1 percentage point above the target, with some officials arguing that the risks of sustained price increases are minimal [5][6] - Powell's cautious approach is characterized by a reliance on data, which may lead to delayed responses to economic changes, as evidenced by recent downward revisions in employment growth estimates [6][8] - The economic landscape has shifted since last year, with lower interest rates and stable unemployment, yet inflation rates have not significantly decreased, complicating the decision-making process for the Federal Reserve [9]