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AI制药:从降本增效到分子创新,数据生产构筑长期壁垒
China Post Securities· 2026-01-22 07:31
Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Strong Buy" and is maintained [2]. Core Insights - The investment value of the AI + pharmaceutical industry lies in the analysis of the current state and future judgment of the industry. Understanding the role of AI in pharmaceuticals, its business models, growth potential, key growth factors, and competitive barriers is essential [4]. - AI in pharmaceuticals primarily enhances efficiency and innovation. The most mature applications of AI in drug development focus on cost reduction and efficiency improvements in preclinical stages, significantly shortening development cycles and reducing costs [5]. - The global market for AI-enabled drug development is projected to grow from $11.9 billion in 2023 to $74.6 billion by 2032, with a CAGR of 22.6% [5]. - The industry has seen a significant increase in investment, with the AI + CRO/AI + Biotech model being a major trend for profitability. High-quality data production capabilities are identified as a core competitive advantage [5][6]. Summary by Sections AI's Role in Pharmaceuticals - AI in drug development combines technologies like NLP and deep neural networks to enhance efficiency and expand innovation space. It integrates vast biomedical data to empower the entire drug development process [9]. - AI's application is most effective in the preclinical research phase, where it can reduce costs by over 90% and significantly shorten development timelines [21]. Market Size and Commercialization Focus - The AI + pharmaceutical financing landscape has seen rapid growth since 2015, with a total of $24.6 billion raised by 2022. However, there has been a decline in financing activity due to global economic conditions [48]. - The commercial focus is on molecular entities, with the industry not yet forming a unified paradigm, leading to structural differentiation among companies [52][68]. Business Models - The industry features three main business models: SaaS, AI + CRO, and AI + Biotech. The AI + CRO model is predominant, leveraging AI technology to provide outsourced drug development services [62][63]. - SaaS models face challenges due to limited market size and high competition, making them less favorable for new entrants [67]. Key Players and Competitive Landscape - The report highlights leading companies in the AI pharmaceutical space, including Insilico Medicine, Relay Therapeutics, and Schrodinger, which are involved in various stages of drug development [53][54]. - The competitive landscape is characterized by a "Matthew Effect," where leading players dominate due to their established capabilities and resources [6].