新业务CSM
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中国平安(601318):新业务CSM表现较好,上半年侧重OCI股票配置
Hua Yuan Zheng Quan· 2025-09-04 09:47
Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [5] Core Views - The report highlights that China Ping An's new business CSM performed well, with a focus on OCI stock allocation in the first half of the year [5] - The company's revenue and net profit attributable to shareholders for the first half of 2025 were 500.1 billion and 68 billion respectively, showing a year-on-year growth of 1.0% and a decline of 8.8% [6] - The operating profit after tax (OPAT) attributable to shareholders increased by 3.7% to 77.7 billion, while the net assets attributable to shareholders rose by 1.7% to 944 billion [6] - The report indicates a significant growth in the new business value (NBV) of the life insurance segment, which increased by 39.8% [6] - The combined ratio (COR) for property and casualty insurance improved by 2.6 percentage points to 95.2% [6] - The non-annualized comprehensive investment return rate improved by 0.3 percentage points to 3.1% year-on-year [6] - The mid-year dividend per share increased by 2.2% to 0.95 yuan [6] Financial Performance Summary - In Q2, the net profit attributable to shareholders and OPAT increased by 8.2% and 4.9% year-on-year respectively, indicating a positive trend compared to Q1 [7] - The life insurance segment's OPAT growth rate was 2.5%, while the property and casualty insurance segment saw a 1.0% increase [10] - The asset management business's net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 14.3 billion, primarily due to a reduction in financial expenses [10] - The technology segment reported a net loss of 2.6 billion, mainly due to a one-time loss from the consolidation of Good Doctor [10] Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The projected revenue for 2025 is 1,072.2 billion, with a year-on-year growth rate of 4.21% [12] - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be 130.6 billion in 2025, reflecting a growth rate of 3.17% [12] - The earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to be 7.21 yuan in 2025, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 8.0 [12] - The intrinsic value per share is estimated at 85.12 yuan, with a price-to-intrinsic value (P/EV) ratio of 0.68 [12] Investment Strategy - The report suggests that the company's mid-year results align with market expectations, particularly with the stabilization of the life insurance business's CSM [13] - The investment performance in the first half of 2025 was primarily driven by OCI equity contributions, while TPL investments were considered average [13] - The forecast for net profit attributable to shareholders for 2025-2027 is 130.6 billion, 148.0 billion, and 173.2 billion respectively, with corresponding growth rates of 3.2%, 13.3%, and 17.0% [13]