证券研究报告 非银金融 | 保险Ⅱ 港股|首次覆盖报告 hyzqdatemark 2026 年 02 月 26 日 证券分析师 陆韵婷 SAC：S1350525050002 luyunting@huayuanstock.com 沈晨 SAC：S1350525090002 shenchen@huayuanstock.com 市场表现： | 基本数据 | 2026 年 | 02 | 月 | 25 | 日 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 收盘价（港元） | | | | | 71.15 | | 一年内最高/最低（港 | | | 74.70/39.60 | | | | 元） | | | | | | | 总市值（百万港元） | | | 1,288,358.73 | | | | 流通市值（百万港元） | | | | 529,895.10 | | | 资产负债率（%） | | | | | 89.94 | | 资料来源：聚源数据 | | | | | | 中国平安(02318.HK) 投资评级： 买入（首次） ——利润数据大幅增长，寿险 NBV 持续高增 投资要点： 联系人 事 ...

证券研究报告 非银金融 | 保险Ⅱ 港股|首次覆盖报告 hyzqdatemark 2026 年 02 月 26 日 证券分析师 陆韵婷 SAC：S1350525050002 luyunting@huayuanstock.com 沈晨 SAC：S1350525090002 shenchen@huayuanstock.com 市场表现： | 基本数据 | 2026 | 年 | 02 月 日 | 23 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 收盘价（港元） | | | | | 34.58 | | 一年内最高/最低（港 | | | 36.16/12.38 | | | | 元） | | | | | | | 总市值（百万港元） | | | | 977,393.50 | | | 流通市值（百万港元） | | | | 257,315.83 | | | 资产负债率（%） | | | | | 91.39 | | 资料来源：聚源数据 | | | | | | 中国人寿(02628.HK) 联系人 点评： 1、从财务指标来看： 3、投资业务：投资收益率同比提升 104bp A、 中国人寿 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Buy" [2] Core Insights - The insurance sector is expected to see a double-digit growth in asset scale by 2025, with a significant increase in equity allocation compared to the previous year [7] - The investment assets of insurance companies reached 38.5 trillion CNY by the end of Q4 2025, marking a 15.7% increase from the beginning of the year, with life insurance and property insurance companies holding 34.7 trillion CNY and 2.4 trillion CNY respectively [7] - The proportion of equity assets in insurance funds has notably increased, with stocks and funds accounting for 23% of total investments by Q4 2025, indicating room for further enhancement in equity allocation [7] Summary by Sections Investment Scale and Allocation - By the end of Q4 2025, the investment balance of insurance companies reached 38.5 trillion CNY, a 15.7% increase year-on-year, with life insurance companies accounting for 90.1% of the total [7] - The bond allocation remained stable, while the proportion of stocks and funds increased significantly, with life and property insurance companies showing respective stock and fund allocations of 15.3% and 17.1% by Q4 2025 [7] Market Performance and Trends - The insurance sector's investment assets have shown continuous double-digit growth, driven by strong demand on the liability side and an upward trend in the equity market [7] - The overall solvency ratio of the insurance industry was 181% by Q4 2025, indicating a healthy capital position and potential for increased equity investments [7] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on the insurance sector, particularly on stocks such as China Ping An, China Life, China Taiping, and AIA Insurance, which are expected to benefit from improved equity elasticity and favorable market conditions [7]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the insurance sector, indicating a positive outlook for the industry compared to the overall market performance [3][11]. Core Insights - The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) is proposing to relax restrictions on strategic investors, which is expected to support the entry of long-term capital into the market [1]. - The proposed changes will allow various institutional investors, including public funds, commercial insurance funds, and pension funds, to participate as strategic investors in non-public offerings of listed companies [2]. - The report highlights that participation in private placements by long-term capital investors is likely to yield excess returns due to diverse sources of income, including discount gains and dividend income [3]. Summary by Sections Regulatory Changes - The CSRC's draft proposal aims to expand the types of strategic investors and clarify their classification, including social security funds and commercial insurance funds [2]. - A minimum shareholding requirement of 5% for strategic investors is established, allowing them to participate in corporate governance [2]. Investment Opportunities - The report emphasizes that the alignment of long-term capital with private placements is expected to enhance investment returns, with the potential for smoother profit fluctuations through accounting measures [3]. - The report recommends several companies in the insurance sector, including China Life, New China Life, Ping An, China Pacific Insurance, China Property Insurance, and China Re, while suggesting to pay attention to China Taiping and ZhongAn Online [3]. Valuation Metrics - The report provides a valuation table for key insurance companies, detailing metrics such as market capitalization, P/E ratios, and dividend yields, indicating the financial health and investment potential of these firms [6].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In Q4 2025, the number of newly defaulted bonds and the corresponding bond balances decreased compared to the previous quarter and the same period last year. The new issuer default rate and new bond default rate also declined. The new bond default rate of private enterprises dropped significantly, and no new bond defaults occurred among state - owned enterprises [2][6][9]. - The bond default of Huaming Intelligence in Q4 was caused by poor operating conditions, high short - term debt ratio, increased liquidity pressure, risk warnings from regulatory authorities, and high refinancing pressure [22]. - Since 2020, the default rates of state - owned enterprises and private enterprises in the bond market have been significantly different. The default rate of private enterprises is relatively high, which weakens their attractiveness to investors, increases financing difficulties and costs, and there is a large gap in net financing ability between state - owned and private enterprises [23][25][30]. - From 2020 to Q4 2025, the default rates of bond issuers in different industries varied. Industries such as real estate, transportation, and automobile had relatively more newly defaulted issuers, while industries like public utilities, banks, and petroleum and petrochemicals had no defaulting issuers. Industries such as communication, automobile, textile and apparel, media, and real estate had relatively high default rates [25][32]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fourth - Quarter Credit Bond Default Overall Situation - In Q4 2025, 3 new bonds defaulted, with a total default balance of 2.414 billion yuan, involving 3 defaulting issuers, 2 of which were first - time defaulters. The number of newly defaulted bonds and the default balance decreased compared to the previous quarter and the same period last year [6]. - The new issuer default rate (by number of issuers) in Q4 was 0.04%, lower than the previous quarter (0.07%). The new issuer default rate of private enterprises was 0.17%, significantly lower than the previous quarter (0.44%), and no new issuer defaults occurred among state - owned enterprises. The new bond default rate (by balance) was 0.01%, lower than the previous quarter (0.02%). The new bond default rate of private enterprises was 0.04%, significantly lower than the previous quarter (0.19%), and no new bond defaults occurred among state - owned enterprises [9]. 3.2 Fourth - Quarter Credit Bond Default Case Analysis - Huaming Intelligence, a company engaged in the R & D, manufacturing, and sales of automatic fare collection system terminal equipment, had its convertible bond "Huaming Dingzhuan" default on December 24, 2025. After paying part of the funds, 15.8513 million yuan was postponed for payment [11]. - Since 2019, due to changes in the market environment, the company has been in a state of continuous losses. From 2021 to 2024, the cumulative loss reached 307 million yuan. The company's asset - liability ratio has decreased steadily, but the conservative quick ratio has declined, indicating weakened liquidity. The scale of interest - bearing debt has decreased, but the proportion of interest - bearing debt in total debt has increased, and interest expenses have eroded profits. The debt structure is dominated by short - term debt, and the coverage of short - term debt by operating cash flow has fluctuated significantly [12][14][17]. - The company has exposed internal governance and financial compliance issues, triggering risk warnings. It has also faced many new lawsuits and arbitrations, with a large amount involved. Since 2020, the company's financing cash flow has been in a continuous net outflow state, resulting in high refinancing pressure [19][20][22]. 3.3 Recent Bond Market Default Changes - Since 2020, the new issuer default rate of state - owned enterprises has remained below 0.3%, while that of private enterprises has generally declined, reaching a maximum of nearly 2.5%. In 2025, the new issuer default rate of private enterprises was 1.31%, lower than the previous year (1.37%). In Q4 2025, it was 0.17%, significantly lower than the previous quarter (0.44%) [23]. - The relatively high default rate and frequent default events of private enterprises have weakened their attractiveness to bond market investors, increasing their bond financing difficulties and costs. In 2024, the net bond financing of private enterprises was - 3.9912 billion yuan, and that of state - owned enterprises was 339.04509 billion yuan. In 2025, the net bond financing of private enterprises was 3.2873 billion yuan, and that of state - owned enterprises was 37.07585 billion yuan. In Q4 2025, the net bond financing of private enterprises was 273.6 million yuan, and that of state - owned enterprises was 12.34815 billion yuan [25]. - From 2020 to Q4 2025, in terms of the number of newly defaulted issuers, industries such as real estate, transportation, and automobile had relatively more newly defaulted issuers, while industries like public utilities, banks, and petroleum and petrochemicals had no defaulting issuers. In terms of the marginal default rate of issuers over the years, industries such as communication, automobile, textile and apparel, media, and real estate had relatively high default rates [25][32]. 3.4 Summary - In Q4 2025, 3 new bonds defaulted, with a total default balance of 2.414 billion yuan, involving 3 defaulting issuers, 2 of which were first - time defaulters. The number of newly defaulted bonds and the default balance decreased compared to the previous quarter and the same period last year [30]. - The first - time defaulters in this quarter were Huaming Intelligence and Tianan Life Insurance. Huaming Intelligence had poor profitability and high refinancing pressure [30]. - Since 2020, the default rate of state - owned enterprises has remained low, while that of private enterprises has declined but is still significantly higher. There is a large gap in net financing ability between state - owned and private enterprises [30]. - From 2020 to 2025, the default rates of bond issuers in different industries varied. In Q4 2025, there was 1 new defaulting issuer in the computer industry and 1 in the non - banking financial industry, and no first - time defaults occurred among bond issuers in other industries [32].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The recent strength of the insurance sector, represented by China Ping An, is driven by a combination of policy support, macroeconomic changes, fundamentals, and market liquidity [3][24] - The valuation of China Ping An is expected to be re-evaluated in 2026, driven by both internal adjustments in public fund allocations and external capital inflows [4][11] - The company's strategic focus on "comprehensive finance + ecosystem" aligns well with the aging economy and domestic demand themes, particularly through its investments in health and wellness and AI technologies [5][15][22] Summary by Relevant Sections Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform the Market" rating for China Ping An, with expected earnings per share (EPS) of 7.72, 8.57, and 9.26 CNY for 2025 to 2027, respectively [3][26] Market Dynamics - Since December 2025, the A-share insurance sector has seen a maximum monthly increase of 20%, with China Ping An reaching a nearly four-year high [2] - The appreciation of the RMB has attracted foreign capital to reallocate towards core Chinese assets, with China Ping An being a key choice due to its liquidity and low valuation [3][11] Internal and External Factors - Internally, the high-quality development of public funds is expected to shift from growth to value styles by 2026, favoring low-valuation, high-dividend stocks like China Ping An [3][4] - Externally, the strategic allocation of overseas capital is anticipated to increase, focusing on stable, high-dividend companies like China Ping An [4][11] Strategic Initiatives - China Ping An's investments in health and wellness, along with AI, are expected to create a second growth curve, enhancing service experience and operational efficiency [5][15][22] - The company is building a "finance + healthcare" service system that meets the growing demand for high-quality health and elderly care services, aligning with national policies to boost domestic consumption [15][22] Financial Projections - The report projects an average annual growth rate of 11% for the company's enterprise value (EV) over the next three years, with a reasonable P/EV valuation range of 1.02 to 1.13 [3][26] - The current P/EV ratios for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are expected to be 0.71, 0.65, and 0.59, respectively, indicating significant potential for valuation recovery [3][26]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, highlighting its high growth in new business value and unique investment management capabilities [5][11]. Core Insights - The company, Yunfeng Financial, has a strong foothold in the Hong Kong life insurance market, bolstered by its acquisition of MassMutual Asia in 2018, which provides a solid foundation and cash flow [6][20]. - The company has demonstrated significant growth in new business value (NBV) and annualized new premiums (APE), with a year-on-year increase of 81% and 107% respectively in the first half of 2025 [7][47]. - The investment assets are predominantly fixed income and cash, accounting for nearly 90%, reflecting the company's strategy aligned with its product offerings [8][68]. - The company has established strategic partnerships, enhancing its investment capabilities and access to global resources, with a fixed income investment yield of 4.5% in 2025H1, outperforming competitors [8][72]. Summary by Relevant Sections Business Overview - Yunfeng Financial is an innovative fintech company with a focus on insurance, securities brokerage, asset management, and financial technology, ranking among the top ten life insurers in Hong Kong [18]. - The company has a stable shareholding structure, with significant backing from MassMutual and a strong management team with a technology-driven approach [6][23]. Financial Performance - The company expects NBV growth rates of 61%, 30%, and 15% for 2025-2027, with an embedded value (EV) growth of 10.7%, 10.0%, and 10.4% respectively [11][86]. - The projected revenue for 2025 is 10,880 million HKD, with a year-on-year growth of 11% [10]. Market Position - MassMutual has increased its market share in Hong Kong from 1.1% in 2020 to 1.8% in 2024, indicating a strong upward trend in its market position [7][27]. - The company has a diverse product portfolio, including universal life insurance and annuities, with a stable dividend rate of around 4% for its universal life products [32][35]. Investment Strategy - The company has a global investment strategy, with assets distributed across over 15 countries, primarily in the US, which constitutes 78.3% of its investment portfolio [8][71]. - The partnership with Barings Asset Management provides access to top-tier investment resources, enhancing the company's investment performance [8][72].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the insurance industry is "Outperform the Market" (maintained) [1][9][24] Core Insights - As of the end of Q3 2025, the total balance of insurance funds reached 37.5 trillion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 16.5% [2][4] - The insurance industry has increased its allocation to equity investments, particularly in direct stock investments, while reducing bank deposit scales [3][24] - The overall asset conversion rate for the industry stands at 83%, indicating a certain degree of under-allocation [3][24] Summary by Sections Fund Utilization - The insurance fund utilization balance exceeded 37 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 16.5% [4][10] - The balance of stock investments reached 3.6 trillion yuan, a significant increase of 55.1% year-on-year [15][24] Fixed Income - Bank deposit scales have decreased, with personal insurance and property insurance companies reducing their bank deposits by 4.9% and 7.5% respectively [11] - Bond allocation has increased, with personal insurance companies holding 17.2 trillion yuan in bonds, up 20.9% year-on-year [11] Equity Investments - The insurance sector has significantly increased its direct equity investments, with personal insurance stock investments reaching 34,124 billion yuan, an increase of 11,445 billion yuan since the beginning of the year [15] - The total scale of securities investment funds for personal and property insurance reached 17,756 billion yuan and 1,964 billion yuan respectively, with quarter-on-quarter growth rates of 20.2% and 6.9% [15] Market Outlook - The report anticipates that in Q4, insurance funds will continue to seek high-dividend investment opportunities and maintain a focus on long-term bonds to match their asset allocation needs [24]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for China Pacific Insurance (601601.SH) is "Buy" (maintained) [3] Core Views - The third-quarter performance of China Pacific Insurance was primarily driven by investments, with individual insurance channels accelerating quarter by quarter [3] - The group's single-quarter revenue and net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 24.6% and 35.2% year-on-year, reaching 144.4 billion and 17.8 billion yuan respectively [3] - The cumulative net profit attributable to shareholders for the first three quarters grew by 19.3% year-on-year, indicating a stable performance that aligns with market expectations [3] Financial Metrics Summary - As of the end of Q3 2025, the cumulative net asset value decreased by 2.5% to 284.2 billion yuan compared to the beginning of the year [6] - The cumulative new business value (NBV) for life insurance showed a year-on-year growth of 31.2% [9] - The comprehensive cost ratio for property insurance improved by 1 percentage point to 97.6% [3] Business Segment Analysis - The new single premium growth rate for the life insurance agent channel showed a quarterly improvement, with Q3 single-quarter new premium increasing by 13.5% to 10.6 billion yuan [5] - Investment performance was a major driver of profit, with Q3 total profit increasing by 85.7% to 27.9 billion yuan, driven by a 79% increase in investment performance [6][17] - The core solvency adequacy ratio for life insurance decreased from 136% at the end of Q2 to 124% at the end of Q3, with a forecasted decline to 117% for the next quarter [9] Profit Forecast and Valuation - The forecasted net profit attributable to shareholders for 2025-2027 is 52.9 billion, 64.7 billion, and 75.1 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 17.7%, 22.2%, and 16.1% respectively [7] - The current stock price corresponds to a price-to-embedded value (PEV) ratio of 0.54, 0.48, and 0.43 for the years 2025-2027 [7]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [5] Core Views - The company's profit growth is driven by a reduction in investment expenses and impairment costs, with a strong growth in new business value (NBV) [5] - In Q3 2025, the company reported a revenue of 67.2 billion yuan and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 18.1 billion yuan, representing year-on-year growth of 30.8% and 88.2% respectively [5][6] - The annualized total investment return rate for the first three quarters reached 8.6%, an increase of 1.8 percentage points compared to the same period last year [6] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - As of the end of September 2025, the company's net assets attributable to shareholders increased by 4.4% year-to-date to 100.5 billion yuan [5] - The company's NBV for the first three quarters grew by 50.8%, maintaining a leading position in the industry [6] Business and Management - The company has seen a significant increase in its individual insurance sales force, with over 30,000 new personnel added in the first three quarters, a year-on-year growth of over 140% [6] - The average productivity per person in the sales force increased by 50% year-on-year, contributing to significant revenue growth [6] Future Outlook - The company plans to issue domestic perpetual capital bonds not exceeding 10 billion yuan, which is expected to strengthen its solvency and maintain stable shareholder dividend ratios [7] - Profit forecasts for 2025-2027 indicate net profits of 38.2 billion, 41.4 billion, and 44.2 billion yuan respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 45%, 9%, and 7% [7]