非银金融/保险Ⅱ 中国平安（601318.SH） 财险 COR 改善明显，持续增配高股息资产 2025 年 08 月 27 日 投资评级：买入（维持） 高超（分析师） gaochao1@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790520050001 财险 COR 改善明显，持续增配高股息资产，维持"买入"评级 2025 年上半年归母净利润实现 680.5 亿元，同比-8.8%，其中保险服务业绩 549 亿，同比+2.0%，投资服务业绩 325 亿，同比-19%，债券票息下降对净投资收益 带来压力，拖累投资收益同比下降。归母净资产较年初+1.7%表现稳健。集团归 母营运利润 777.3 亿元，同比+3.7%，营运 ROE 为 12.2%。期末人身险 EV 9034 亿，较年初+8.2%（回溯口径）。我们预测 2025-2027 年 NBV 同比增速分别为 +35.5%/+4.0%/+9.7%，对应集团 EV 同比+7.0%/+8.0%/+9.0%；基于中报数据， 我们调整集团 2025-2027 年归母净利润预测至 1346/1504/1648 亿元（调整前 1354/1485/1721亿元），分别同比+6.3%/+ ...

证券研究报告 | 2025年08月27日 中国平安（601318.SH） 优于大市 寿险价值率提升，核心指标增长稳健 2025 年上半年，公司归属于母公司股东的营运利润同比增长 3.7%。公司持续 深化"综合金融+医疗养老"战略，整体业绩表现稳健。集团基本每股营运收 益 4.42 元，同比增长 4.5%。公司归母净利润受资本市场波动及平安好医生并 表影响，同比下降 8.8%至 223.35 亿元。受此前平安好医生出表估值较高等因 素影响，一季度并表产生减值影响，但剔除短期因素后的营运利润增长仍反映 出公司主营业务表现稳健。 寿险新业务价值大幅增长 39.8%，新业务价值率显著提升 9.0 个百分点。2025 年，公司各渠道综合实力持续夯实，其产品结构优化和渠道转型成效显著。（1） 个险：构建客户服务场景、拓展"产品+服务"等举措持续提升代理人人均产 能。截至年中，公司代理人渠道人均新业务价值同比增长 21.6%。（2）银保： 公司加大银保多元化布局，通过"加强与国有行、头部股份行及城商行的增量 机会。截至 6 月末，公司银保渠道 NBV 实现 168.6%的高速增长。（3）社区金 融：公司已在全国 198 个 ...

证券研究报告 港股公司|公司点评|阳光保险（06963） 阳光保险 2025 年半年报点评：利润稳 健增长，分红险转型成效显现 请务必阅读报告末页的重要声明 glzqdatemark1 2025年08月25日 请务必阅读报告末页的重要声明 1 / 5 证券研究报告 |报告要点 阳光保险发布 2025 年半年报， 2025H1 公司实现总保费收入 808.1 亿元，同比+5.7%；保险服 务收入为 324.4 亿元，同比+3.0%；归母净利润 33.9 亿元，同比+7.8%。考虑到公司坚持价值 发展理念、DPS 有望稳健增长，我们看好公司后续投资价值，维持"买入"评级。 |分析师及联系人 刘雨辰 朱丽芳 SAC：S0590522100001 SAC：S0590524080001 港股公司|公司点评 glzqdatemark2 2025年08月25日 阳光保险(06963) 阳光保险 2025 年半年报点评：利润稳健增 长，分红险转型成效显现 | 行 业： | 非银金融/保险Ⅱ | | --- | --- | | 投资评级： | 买入（维持） | | 当前价格： | 4.48 港元 | 基本数据 | 总股本/流通 ...

证券研究报告 | 2025年08月20日 众安在线（06060.HK） 优于大市 承保利润提升，数字金融卓见成效 承保利润及投资收益大幅提升，公司归母净利润同比增长 11 倍。2025 年上半 年，公司实现总保费收入 166.61 亿元，同比增长 9.3%，市场份额进一步提升。 保险服务收入达 150.41 亿元，承保综合成本率为 95.6%，同比改善 2.3 个百 分点。承保利润同比增长 109.1%至 6.56 亿元，显示出公司在承保质量与成本 控制方面的持续优化。净利润方面，集团归属于母公司股东的净利润大幅提升 至 6.68 亿元，较去年同期的 0.55 亿元增长超过 11 倍，主要得益于保险业务 利润的显著提升、ZA Bank 扭亏为盈以及科技业务亏损的大幅收窄。 健康及汽车生态增速超 30%，创新产品矩阵扩容。1）健康领域：总保费同比 增长 38.3%至 62.75 亿元，占整体保费结构的 37.7%，成为最大保费贡献来源。 公司不断拓展多元医疗产品供给，其中众民保系列实现保费收入 10.3 亿元， 同比大幅增长 6.4 倍。2）数字生活：保费同比下滑 16.3%，其中宠物险、低 空经济等创新业务增 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the insurance sector, indicating a positive outlook compared to the overall market performance [4][6]. Core Insights - The recent increase in insurance capital's stake in insurance companies, particularly China Ping An's acquisition of China Pacific Insurance (H), signals a renewed interest in the sector's investment value [3][4]. - The insurance sector has seen a surge in stake acquisitions, with 32 announcements in 2024, the highest since 2016, reflecting a growing trend among insurance companies to invest in listed firms [4]. - The report highlights a significant improvement in the cost of new liabilities for insurance companies, with a notable decrease in the new liability costs across major firms, which is expected to positively impact valuations [5][6]. Summary by Sections Stake Acquisition Trends - China Ping An increased its stake in China Pacific Insurance (H) to 5.04%, marking the second instance of insurance capital acquiring insurance companies since 2015 [3][4]. - In 2024, insurance companies have made 24 stake acquisitions involving 20 listed companies, indicating a strong trend in the sector [4]. Financial Performance Metrics - The average interest spread for listed insurance companies from 2017 to 2024 shows positive performance, with China Ping An at 323 basis points, China Pacific at 259 basis points, and others following [5]. - The new liability costs for major insurance firms have improved significantly, with China Ping An at 2.42%, China Life at 2.43%, and China Pacific at 2.60%, reflecting effective cost management [5]. Dividend and Valuation Insights - The insurance sector exhibits both aggressive growth potential and high dividend characteristics, with expected dividend yields ranging from 1.6% to 5.3% for listed firms [6]. - The report suggests focusing on undervalued stocks for potential valuation recovery, recommending companies like China Pacific, China Life, and others for investment consideration [6].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight" indicating that the industry is expected to outperform the overall market [7][25]. Core Insights - The report highlights that the scheduled adjustment of the predetermined interest rate is expected to positively impact the optimization of liability costs and the value of participating insurance options [3][6]. - The predetermined interest rate for ordinary life insurance products has been set at 1.99%, which is 51 basis points below the upper limit of 2.5%, triggering a required adjustment [4][5]. - The adjustment of the predetermined interest rates for various insurance products has been implemented, with ordinary products reduced by 50 basis points to 2.0%, and participating products by 25 basis points to 1.75% [5][6]. - The report emphasizes the importance of managing liability costs and the transformation of participating insurance products as key factors influencing company valuations [6][7]. Summary by Sections Predetermined Interest Rate Adjustments - The report notes that the predetermined interest rate research value has exceeded the upper limit for two consecutive quarters, necessitating a reduction in new product rates by September 1 [4]. - The adjustments made by major insurers like Ping An and China Life reflect a strategic response to market conditions and regulatory requirements [5]. Valuation and Performance - The report suggests that the core concern affecting the valuation of life insurance companies is the risk of interest spread losses, with a focus on controlling liability costs [6]. - The report provides data on the new business value (NBV) break-even yield for major insurers, indicating slight year-over-year declines for companies like China Life and Ping An [6]. Market Outlook - The report expresses optimism regarding the insurance sector's performance, driven by declining new liability costs, increased value of participating insurance options, and stable long-term interest rates [7]. - Specific companies recommended for investment include China Life, New China Life, China Pacific Insurance, China People’s Insurance, Ping An, ZhongAn Online, and China Property Insurance [7].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for China Pacific Insurance, indicating a positive outlook based on strong growth in bancassurance and low sensitivity of net asset return [5][11]. Core Views - The report highlights that China Pacific Insurance's net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 18.1% year-on-year to 9.63 billion yuan in Q1 2025, with net assets declining by 9.5% to 263.6 billion yuan, reflecting a mixed performance [5][6]. - The decline in net profit is attributed to two main factors: a decrease in insurance service performance and a slight drop in total investment return [6]. - The report anticipates that the decline in net assets will narrow within the year due to the alignment of interest rates on government bonds [6]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, insurance service income decreased by 10.6% to 8.79 billion yuan, while investment performance dropped by 13.2% to 4.69 billion yuan [6]. - The total investment asset scale grew by 21.5% year-on-year to 2.73 trillion yuan, with a comprehensive investment return rate increasing by 3.3 percentage points to 6% [8]. Life Insurance Segment - The bancassurance channel has seen rapid growth, with new business value from this channel increasing from 3.34 billion yuan in 2022 to 10.87 billion yuan in 2024, contributing 25.2% to the total new business value [7]. - The individual insurance channel has faced challenges, with the average number of agents declining significantly from 525,000 in 2021 to 184,000 in 2024 [7]. Investment Strategy - The report notes a high proportion of OCI (Other Comprehensive Income) assets, which increased by 4.2 percentage points to 64% in 2024, indicating a diversified investment strategy [8][23]. - The duration of fixed-income assets has been extended to 11.4 years, significantly reducing the sensitivity of net assets to interest rate changes [8][27]. Dividend Policy - The dividend policy has been clarified to consider operational profit growth and stable investment contributions, indicating a positive outlook for shareholder returns [9]. - The core solvency ratio improved by 10 percentage points to 140% in Q1 2025, supported by an increase in core secondary capital [9][28]. Earnings Forecast - The forecast for net profit attributable to shareholders for 2025 is 42.8 billion yuan, with a projected growth rate of -4.8% [10][11]. - The estimated intrinsic value per share is expected to rise from 64.87 yuan in 2025 to 80.00 yuan by 2027, with corresponding P/EV ratios decreasing over the forecast period [11].

Investment Rating - The report rates the insurance industry as "Overweight," indicating an expectation for the industry to outperform the overall market [27]. Core Insights - Concerns regarding "interest spread loss" are central to the valuation of life insurance companies, which can be assessed from three perspectives: investment experience deviation under embedded value (EV) changes, the difference between actual investment returns and the VIF breakeven yield, and investment performance under new accounting standards [4][5][6]. - The embedded value assessment indicates that the current investment return assumption for insurance companies is 4.0%, reflecting a reduction of 50 basis points over the past two years. The investment experience deviation from 2014 to 2024 shows significant variances among major insurers, with China Life experiencing a loss of 734.5 billion yuan [5]. - The net investment yield and total investment yield metrics from 2017 to 2024 show that most A-share listed insurers have maintained positive interest spreads, although these spreads have been narrowing over time [6]. - Following the implementation of IFRS 9 and IFRS 17 in 2023, the investment performance of listed insurers is expected to contribute positively, with projected contributions from major players like China Life and China Ping An [7]. Summary by Sections Investment Experience Deviation - The investment experience deviation reflects the difference between actual investment performance and the assumed investment return, impacting the embedded value of insurers [5]. Interest Spread Analysis - The report analyzes interest spreads using both net investment yield and total investment yield metrics, indicating a trend of narrowing spreads among major insurers from 2017 to 2024 [6]. New Accounting Standards Impact - The adoption of new accounting standards is expected to enhance the clarity of investment performance reporting, with positive contributions anticipated from major insurers in the coming years [7]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends continued investment in companies such as New China Life, China Life (H), China Pacific Insurance (H), China Ping An, AIA, and ZhongAn Online, citing favorable fundamentals and potential for improved liability costs [7].

Investment Rating - The report rates the insurance industry as "Overweight" indicating that it is expected to outperform the overall market [2][5][16]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes that the cost of liabilities is a critical factor affecting the valuation of life insurance companies, particularly in the context of "spread loss" concerns [3][4]. - It highlights that the focus has shifted from traditional growth indicators like NBV (New Business Value) to the management of liability costs and long-term investment returns as the primary valuation drivers [3]. - The report introduces the concept of "break-even yield" for assessing the cost of liabilities, suggesting that NBV and VIF (Value of In-Force) break-even yields are useful metrics [4]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The insurance sector has seen increased attention due to the new public fund regulations, with a noted underweighting of the non-bank sector compared to the CSI 300 index [2]. Liability Cost Analysis - The report identifies three main sources of profit for life insurance companies: mortality difference, expense difference, and investment yield difference [3]. - It discusses the downward trend in interest rates and its impact on the persistent low PEV (Price to Embedded Value) ratios, attributing this to concerns over spread loss risks [3]. Performance Metrics - The report provides specific break-even yield figures for major listed insurance companies for 2024, indicating a significant reduction in new liability costs [4]. - For instance, China Life's NBV break-even yield is reported at 2.43%, while Ping An's is at 2.42%, showing year-on-year changes [4]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends several companies for investment, including New China Life, China Life (H), China Pacific Insurance (H), Ping An, ZhongAn Online, and AIA [5].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for China Life Insurance, indicating a positive outlook for the company's stock performance in the near term [5][10]. Core Insights - China Life Insurance's Q1 2025 net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 39.5% year-on-year to 28.8 billion RMB, with net assets rising by 4.5% to 532.5 billion RMB, showcasing stable performance [5][6]. - The company's strong asset-liability matching and leading position in the transformation to dividend insurance are highlighted as key competitive advantages [7]. - The report anticipates a recovery in new business value and new single premiums in 2025, driven by strategic adjustments in product offerings and sales approaches [6][7]. Financial Performance Summary - For 2023A, the operating revenue is projected at 405 billion RMB, with a year-on-year growth rate of 1.4%. The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be 51.2 billion RMB, reflecting a decline of 13.8% [9]. - The forecast for 2025E includes operating revenue of 553.8 billion RMB and net profit of 109 billion RMB, with respective growth rates of 4.8% and 1.9% [10][11]. - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2025E is estimated at 3.85 RMB, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 10.4 [9][10]. Valuation Metrics - The report indicates that the intrinsic value per share for 2025E is projected at 55.1 RMB, with a corresponding price-to-intrinsic value (P/EV) ratio of 0.73 [10]. - The valuation metrics suggest that the stock is currently undervalued, providing a favorable investment opportunity [10].