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中国中车(601766):25Q3点评:业绩稳健增长,铁路装备和新产业持续突破
Changjiang Securities· 2025-11-10 15:20
Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [9]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 183.865 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 20.49%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 9.964 billion yuan, up 37.53% year-on-year. For Q3 2025, revenue was 64.107 billion yuan, a 2.50% increase year-on-year, while net profit decreased by 10.70% to 2.719 billion yuan [2][6][12]. - The company expects continued growth in the EMU (Electric Multiple Unit) business and improvement in locomotive operations, alongside the development of urban rail and new industries, indicating a positive operational outlook [12]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company's revenue increased by 20.49% year-on-year, primarily driven by growth in railway equipment and new industries. The revenue breakdown shows railway equipment at 47.71%, urban rail and city infrastructure at 14.84%, new industries at 35.95%, and modern services at 1.50% [12]. - In Q3 2025, railway equipment revenue was 28 billion yuan, down 6% year-on-year, with specific contributions from locomotives (6.9 billion yuan), passenger cars (1.6 billion yuan), EMUs (15.2 billion yuan), and freight cars (4.2 billion yuan) [12]. - New industry revenue reached 25.4 billion yuan in Q3, a 26% increase year-on-year, mainly due to the rise in clean energy equipment sales [12]. Order Intake and Market Demand - The company signed new orders totaling 247.2 billion yuan in the first three quarters, a 16.5% increase year-on-year, with overseas orders reaching 46.7 billion yuan, up 37%. Q3 alone saw new orders of 101.2 billion yuan, a 40% increase, with overseas orders doubling [12]. - The railway sector remains robust, with fixed asset investment reaching 593.7 billion yuan from January to September 2025, a 5.8% increase year-on-year. Passenger traffic reached 3.54 billion trips, a 6% increase, while freight traffic was 3.03 billion tons, up 3.4% [12]. Future Outlook - The company anticipates continued growth in the EMU business and improvements in locomotive operations, supported by urban rail and new industry developments. The projected net profits for 2025 and 2026 are 14.2 billion yuan and 16 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 16 and 14 [12].