新季开秤价预期博弈
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市场快讯:产量博弈延续当下红枣偏强看待
Ge Lin Qi Huo· 2025-08-11 11:40
Group 1: Investment Rating - No specific investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views - In the spot market, Xinjiang jujubes have entered the expansion period with some first - crop fruits starting to turn red. Last week, the sales area's spot goods moved faster, and the spot price in Cangzhou was stable with an upward trend. The average prices of special - grade and first - grade jujubes were 10.12 yuan/kg and 9.15 yuan/kg respectively, up 0.25 yuan/kg and 0.32 yuan/kg week - on - week [1]. - In the futures market, the jujube futures price has been oscillating upwards recently and broke through the previous high on Friday. The market focus is on the supply side, and there are large differences between the long and short positions regarding the new - season jujube production. The total open interest of jujube futures reached over 230,000 lots on Friday, remaining at a record high, indicating intense long - short contradictions. The market generally expects a reduction in new - season jujube production due to adverse weather in June - July, but there are large disputes over the reduction amplitude. The disputes over production will shift to the expected game of the new - season opening price. Currently, the upstream has a strong bullish sentiment, and the steady increase in spot prices has pushed the jujube futures price upwards. Technically, the CJ601 contract shows an obvious strengthening trend [1]. - It is recommended to take a bullish view of the jujube futures price in the near term [1]. Group 3: Operation Suggestions - Pay attention to the position - limit and expiration risks of the CJ509 contract, and continue to hold long positions in the CJ601 contract. From a long - term perspective, wait for the end of the opening - price game and then choose an opportunity to short the CJ605 contract [2].